Texas Flood: More Deaths, NWS On Top Of It, Warning System Lacking, Video, Other Updates

Interior of a building housing children at summer camp
near the Guadalupe River in central Texas. Note the
water reached the top bunks, judging from the
mud line the windows.. 

The death toll from the extreme Texas floods over the Fourth of July weekend kept horrifyingly ballooning upward all day Sunday and last night. 

As of early this morning, at least 78 people had died in the flooding. Another 41 people were missing. 

Hope was fading that more survivors will be found. There was a report that two girls had been found alive Sunday, but that report turned out to be false. 

We couldn't even squeeze one thankful moment out of this tragedy. 

Mr. Rogers once said that if you're seeing something awful, look for the helpers. 

There are plenty in Texas. Including camp counselors who braved rushing water to save a lot of the kids at Camp Mystic, the camp where some children were swept away an killed. 

 The flash flooding moved a little north on Sunday, hitting communities a little south and west of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. 

Flood watches remained in effect Sunday for the Texas Hill Country, as more developing thunderstorms threatened further downpours. 

Separately, serious flash flooding hit parts of North Carolina Sunday after Tropical Storm Chantal came ashore earlier in the day. 

THE WARNING TIMELINE 

More evidence emerged that the National Weather System was on entirely on top of the developing Texas flood situation Thursday and early Friday. 

The flooding started after 1 a.m. Friday and rapidly worsened before dawn, when people are asleep and less likely to hear warnings. Or, given it was dark, they just didn't have the visual cues that something was going very, very wrong. 

Meteorologist Jess Hawila at WFAA in Dallas provided a detailed time line of when and how the National Weather Service issued statements, alerts and warnings before and during the flood. 

Between Tuesday and Thursday, the National Weather Service offices in San Antonio and Austin were putting out statements saying there was a flash flood risk Thursday night and Friday.

At 1:18 p.m. Thursday, the National Weather Service issued a flood watch for the the area including Kerr Couty, where the worst of the flooding hit. The watch mentioned the possibility of up to seven inches of rain. 

Mountains of debris after the extreme Texas Hill
Country flood this weekend. 

At 6:10 p.m. Thursday, the National Weather Service released a special discussion - one that is typically noticed by emergency managers. 

This NWS statement referenced "concerning trends" indicating flash flooding was on its way and mentioned forecasted rainfall rates exceeding three inches per hour. 

At 1:06 a.m. Friday, the National Weather Service issued a flash flood warning for Kerr County, and used a tag "considerable" to the wording in the warning. 

That should have triggered those automatic alerts that sets your cell phone blaring during emergencies such as life-threatening weather. 

The NWS at 2:38 a.m. Friday issued a communication that five inches of rain had already fallen. That was followed up at 3:02 a.m. with a National Weather Service statement saying "a dangerous flash flood emergency is unfolding in south-central Kerr County. 

At 4:03 a.m. a flash flood emergency was declared in Kerr County. Near Camp Mystic in Hunt, Texas, where those children were swept away and presumably drowned, the Guadalupe River reached major flood stage of 22 feet, ultimately cresting at 29.45 feet shortly after 4:30 a.m. 

National Weather Service offices across the nation, including those serving the flash flood zone, have staff shortages due to mostly Trump administration cutbacks. But crucially, the local National Weather Service office increased staff Thursday night, knowing that dangerous weather was possible. 

Normally,  under our current regime of NWS staff shortages, two meteorologists would have been on duty that night. However, five meteorologists staffed the office that night and early morning. 

GETTING THE MESSAGE

However, either the messaging wasn't adequate enough to convey the serious danger developing, or more likely, people just didn't hear the warnings. 

Kerr County, the epicenter of the extreme flooding early Friday, does not have a reliable early warning system, despite the fact the area is highly prone to flash flood. 

As NBCDFW.com reports, local officials said they did not expect such an intense downpour, despite the dire flood warning issued in the predawn hours Friday. 

"We know we get rains. We know the river rises....But nobody saw this coming," said Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly. 

The county had looked into building a flash flood warning system a few years ago. It would have worked somewhat like a tornado warning system, with sirens and other means of alerting the public. But officials  blanched at the cost. 

We also don't know what went on at the camps where the children were swept away. What are the safety protocols for nights when flash flooding is possible? When does somebody pull the trigger to start an evacuation? Was there a detailed plan to hustle all the kids out of danger as fast as possible? Lots of inquiring minds want to know.

The timing of the flooding was the worst possible, as Texas Tribune tells us. It was the start of a major summer holiday weekend, when camps and RV parks would be fully booked. The more people you have in one area, the longer it takes to get everybody out of harm's way.

The emergency hit before dawn, when pretty much everyone was asleep. A lot of the people in the area were out of town tourists, who were probably unfamiliar with how fast these floods develop. When they did wake up, people were initially probably too groggy to act fast. 

By the time the crisis hit, you had to get out of the way with lighting speed. Any hesitation would be fatal. 

The end result is easily the Texas flood is the most deadly weather related disaster in the United States this year. Worse than the January wildfires in California. Worse than any of the more than 1,300 tornadoes the U.S, has seen this year.  Worse than the catastrophic floods in and near Kentucky this past February and April.

VIDEO

A  video by Gavin Walston shows the flash flood view from the 480 Bridge in Center Point, Texas.    In a little over a half hour, the river goes from nothing special flowing more than 20 feet below the bridge, to a debris-filled horror overtaking the bridge. You can hear somebody yelling a Walston to get off the bridge near the end. 

Below are two excerpts from the video

Video shows how fast water came up along one river in the flood zone. It went from a placid stream to something akin to a tsunami within an hour.  Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that: 

Same videographer, showing the house that came downstream in the video above. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Worries Grow About Isolated North Carolina/Tennessee Wracked By Helene

 I, along with lots of other people, are especially worried about the people in the mountains of western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee. 

Western North Carolina's 
road network is virtually
destroyed by the Helene
flooding, as can be seen here 

It's isolated from the catastrophic flooding from Hurricane Helene. I'm not just talking about a few backwoods hollows in the mountains. It's virtually the whole region. The crisis is worsening, and I fear the death toll up there will skyrocket.

Much like Vermont, there's tons of narrow, winding mountain roads in the region leading to an unknown number of houses, trailers, camps, resorts and local tourist attractions.  The flooding and mudslides up there were cataclysmic. Since there's no communications and electricity working, and nobody can get up there, nobody knows how many people have passed away, or are dying while they wait.

"This is looking to be Buncombe County's own Hurricane Katrina," Avril Pinder, the manager of the county which includes Asheville, told the Washington Post.  

And this from CNN:

"Officials in Buncombe County, North Carolina have received more than a thousand missing person reports through an online form, County Manager Avril Pinder said Sunday, cautioning that figure likely includes duplicate submissions and that communications outages mean people are struggling to reach one another, 

Gov. Cooper echoed that, telling reporters in a news conference, 'We know that a lot of these people are simply out of communication and are OK,"

In other words, there are certainly not 1,000 people out there that have lost their lives. The vast majority - I hope - just can't be reached via roads or phone or any means. 

But that doesn't mean everybody. Social media posts described people being swept away and not found. As the Washington Post tells us:

"The toll from the storm is likely to rise. Taylor Jones, Buncombe County's director of emergency management, said there had been multiple fatalities there, though he declined to provide exact figures. He said officials were resorting to their 'mass fatality plan' and trying to notify relatives, a process complicated by service outages."

 At 10 a.m. today, officials at a press conference confirmed at least 10 deaths in Buncombe County, reports the Asheville Citizen Times. 

As of Sunday morning, Asheville, an absolutely lovely, artsy city of about 94,000 at the foot of the Smokey Mountains, is pretty much cut off.  (Think Burlington, Vermont, only somewhat bigger and generally more upscale).

Most roads in and out of the city were still impassable. True, only parts of the city were inundated and destroyed by flood waters. But the entire metro area had no electricity, no cell service, in internet, no water through Saturday and into today at least.  

A scene from western North Carolina this week that 
almost exactly matches a similar photo taken after
devastating floods in Lyndonville, Vermont on July 30.

One news crew from Raleigh found a long roundabout way out of Asheville via South Carolina, but the service station was almost out of gas and probably is by now.  

Crowds gathered at the public library in downtown Asheville Sunday morning because wifi was available there. It was perhaps the only place in town where wifi was reachable. It does look like a crew arrived in Asheville this afternoon to set up Starlink so that other people could access wifi.

Still, it might be two or more days before electricity is restored. Power lines are down everywhere, and the city's water treatment plant was badly damaged by the flooding. 

As of Sunday morning, water and food distribution sites had not yet been set up, mostly because of transportation problems caused by the flooding. Helicopters have begun dropping supplies in remote areas. 

Small towns outside of Asheville like Castle Rock, Old Fort, Roan Mountain and Swannanoa have been almost completely destroyed. Accessing them will be harder than getting into Asheville.

I've vacationed in this part of North Carolina in the past and absolutely loved it. I hope the death toll doesn't really go up, and I hope, like everyone, that adequate aid gets there right away. As bad as the flooding and the suffering from it was in Vermont in the summers of 2023 and 2024, North Carolina and surrounding areas are far worse. 

Monday Evening Storm Update: Vermont Finds Itself Once Again In A Nasty Flood Disaster

Flooding in Waitsfield today. Photo via X by@SidMyNBC5

Once again, Vermont is dealing with yet another over-performing storm, with serious flooding ongoing this evening. It's clearly another climate disaster, as if we haven't had enough of them lately. 

WIDESPREAD DAMAGE

True, today's flooding is not as bad as the cataclysmic July flooding, but it's still really, really bad.  Lots of roads are closed, there's evacuations going on, we've had water rescues, there's plenty of property damage,  and it's not over yet.  

"It's a real gut punch," said Gov. Phil Scott during a late afternoon press briefing. He noted that many flooded areas are the same spots hardest hit in July.

Pretty much every corner of Vermont is being affected by this.  River levels and predicted crests are far above what had been expected as recently as dawn today. Scott said that although the water levels aren't as high as in July, the flooding is more widespread than it was in July.

Take beleaguered Montpelier, for instance. The city, as you know, was completely trashed by the devastating July floods. Everybody there was relaxing last night, as the Winooski River was expected to crest at 9.7 feet. That's far below flood stage.

Now, the river is forecast to crest this evening at 16.7 feet. That's a little less than a foot below major flood stage. Montpelier officials have asked residents to move their cars to higher ground. The area around the Bailey Avenue bridge and the approach to the Taylor Street bridge will go under water, if it hasn't already.

The flooding won't inundate downtown Montpelier, but could pour into basements in the business district, potentially causing a lot of damage to stock stored there. 

The Mad River in Moretown actually reached major flood stage. Residents of Moretown village were told to evacuate.  Residents of Waitsfield were told to stay home because so many town roads were under water. 

Mad River flooding was not particularly serious in July. This time, it's much worse.

An emergency shelter is opening at Memorial Auditorium in Barre. That's another city that was catastrophically damaged in July.  More damage is now occurring in Barre. Main Street between City Hall Park and Depot Square closed because flood waters were breaching storefronts as cars passed by, Vermont Public reported. 

Some businesses in Londonderry damaged by flooding in July are being damaged again today. 

The Whetstone Brook in West Brattleboro flooded several homes after four inches of rain fell on the area.

Mike Cannon with Vermont's Urban Search and Rescue Team said seven swift water rescue teams have been deployed around the state. 

 Vermont Department of Public Safety Commissioner Jennifer Morrison said swift water rescue teams have been deployed around the state. Three people were rescued from a flooded house in Jamaica, and another person was rescued from a car swept away by floodwaters in Waterbury. Another water rescue was ongoing as of 5 p.m. 

"What we are experiencing today is dangerous, and there will be damage," Morrison said. She said many people, including herself are suffering flashbacks to the July flood, and she perceptively worried about Vermonters' mental health. 

Amtrak has suspended operations in Vermont due to worries about damage from flooding. 

Good luck traveling along Route 2.  It was closed due to a mudslide in St. Johnsbury and due to high water in Marshfield, Plainfield, Middlesex, Waterbury, and Jonesville/Richmond. 

Parts of major highways like Route 12 in Berlin Route 100 Rochester and Granville, 128 in Essex Center, Route 100 in Rochester, Route 14 in Hardwick, Route 118 in Berkshire, Route 11 in Londonderry, Route 131 in southern Vermont,  among others. 

Gov. Scott said the extent of today's flooding took him by surprise, as it probably did with nearly everyone, including myself. 

WHAT HAPPENED AND FORECAST

This was a double-barreled storm, with the first wave being the worst. It spread torrential rains across Vermont this morning and early afternoon. Temperatures hit record high levels in all of Vermont except the northern Champlain Valley, and mountain snow melted immediately, adding to the runoff. 

Rainfall was heavier than pretty much anyone expected. I don't have a lot of figures, but I know a lot of places had more than three inches of rain. Some numbers as of 5 p.m. include 3.12 inches in Bolton, 2.4 inches in Burlington 

To add insult to injury, another wave of heavy rain moved through Vermont late this afternoon.  As of 5:30 p.m. the rain had largely stopped in southern Vermont. Heavy rain was ongoing in northern Vermont but that should mostly end by 7 p.m.

However, there's a lot of runoff to make it downstream. Small streams and creeks have probably crested by now, or will soon. 

Larger rivers will keep rising tonight, and will crest late tonight or early Tuesday. Flood warnings remain in effect all over Vermont. 

It's probably best to stay off the road this evening, as you never know where the flooding is hitting. I've noticed several town roads across the state that don't usually flood are under water. When you're driving at night, you often don't see floodwaters ahead of you until it's too late.

High winds hit parts of Vermont during today's storm, cutting power to as many as 10,000 homes and businesses late this morning. Although winds might be gusty through tomorrow, they won't be damaging, so that's a glimmer of good news.

If you can find any optimism in this, the good news is we're getting a break from the extreme weather for a little while. Quiet weather is forecast through Christmas.

IN PERSPECTIVE

It wasn't just us in Vermont that got nailed by another round of destructive weather. The entire eastern United States suffered through this. Flash flooding was especially severe in South Carolina, New York and New Hampshire.

This storm was unusually strong, and especially unusually wet. It's rare indeed to have this much rain fall in New England during December.

Climate change has made damaging storms more intense and more frequent, and we saw that today here in Vermont. Of course I'll have more on that in the coming days as we pick up the pieces once again. 

During his late afternoon press briefing, Gov. Scott said, "We'll get through this. Vermonters are tough."

He's right. But unfortunately we'll have to get learn to get through more and more dangerous and disheartening weather events in the age of climate change. 

I guess we're in a brave new world. By that I mean, we'll need to be brave to live in it. 

 wa"We'll get through this, Vermonters are tough," Scott said. 

Monday Evening Vermont Flood Update: Destruction To Continue Overnight; Towns Isolated

North Branch of the Winooski River rising rapidly
toward State Street in Montpelier late Monday 
afternoon amid continued downpours. 

 Back now at 7 pm. from my Vermont flood tour, and, as everybody knows, it's nasty out there. 

So far, we have one unconfirmed fatality in Londonderry, dozens of roads under water or washed out, towns devastated, and more to come.  

The two biggest challenges overnight will be main stem river flooding, and likely renewed flash flooding in northern Vermont. 

Some examples: The Winooski River at Essex Junction is now forecast to crest tomorrow at 21.6 feet, which would be the fifth highest on record. The same river in Montpelier is forecast to crest at 19.3 feet, which would be the second highest on record and higher than during Tropical Storm Irene in 2011.

I was in Montpelier today and the Winooski was rising rapidly, and the downtown was just as rapidly becoming a ghost town.  Most business were closed, except the hardware and grocery store.  I was surprised by how many businesses hadn't moved merchandise from lower shelves on sales floors. Several businesses had sand bags bunched up against doors. 

Along Interstate 89 between Montpelier and Middlesex, water cascaded off the roadside ledges in several areas, sometimes spewing water onto the pavement. 

Further south, the expected crest on the Otter Creek in Center Rutland is 14 feet, also the second highest on record. Similar high crests are expected along the Lamoille River. 

MORE FLASH FLOODS?

A secondary threat is new flash flooding in northern Vermont.  Rainfall rates have decreased some, but heavy rain is expected over northwestern Vermont possibly until about dawn.  

The Champlain Valley from Burlington north has largely escaped the flooding, but this could change overnight. I'd especially keep my eye on Franklin County overnight. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center said there is an 80 percent chance of a once in 100 year rain event around St Albans. A forecast of  80 percent chance of such an occurrence is almost unheard of. 

It's too soon to assess how much damage has been done, since some towns are still mostly inaccessible. This will be on par with 2011's Tropical Storm Irene.  Those of you who lived through that know how long it took to get past and rebuild from the that.  

A barn starts to take on water in Jonesville, Vermont
late Monday afternoon as the nearby Winooski River
rose rapidly toward a near-record flood crest. 

It was still raining in most of Vermont as of 7 p.m. Already, some of the totals are just incredible. Mount Holly reported 8.66 inches. Tyson came in with 8.4 inches. Several towns, including Braintree, Ludlow, Middlesex and Worcester, had more than six inches. 

Some of the towns that had the most rain today, like Killington, Hardwick and Worcester, already had flash floods last Friday. 

When you get up tomorrow, expect a lot of travel disruptions, either because roads are under water or washed out. I suspect Interstates 89 and 91 will be OK or mostly so, but it''s a roll of the dice for everyone else. 

I'll start talking about what's next in some of tomorrow's post, but I can't handle that tonight. 

One thing I will telegraph is that the danger of flash flooding and more damage doesn't end with the departure of this storm tomorrow.

We're still stuck in the same weather pattern that will bring almost daily chances of showers and storms. Some with heavy rain. We won' have a repeat of the nightmare we went through today.

But as we try to patch things up, our work might be undone in some places by new, localized flash flooding. 

Late Morning/Noon Vermont Flood Update: It's As Bad As Advertised, Still Getting Worse

Severe flooding in southeastern Vermont today. 

It was so sad to see this morning the sad images and videos coming out of towns like Ludlow, Weston, Londonderry with the extensive flooding going on there. 

It does look as bad as Irene. 

NOTE: I might or might not have an evening post on this, depending how long a reporting/potential helping trip on this takes. But this post will give you a decent update:

I was of course horrified to see the damage spreading north through the morning. Several roads are closed in central Vermont, especially between Pittsfield, on through Warren and on toward Northfield. 

Rainfall totals through mid-morning include 5.67 inches in Ludlow, 4.49 inches in Bridgewater and 4.19 inches in Belmont.

In the central and northern Green Mountains, we have numerous reports of three inches of rain already.  

I've already seen images of many homes and businesses suffering major damage. I see that Gov. Phil Scott is having a lot of conversations with FEMA.  Scott, to nobody's surprise, on Sunday declared a state of emergency in Vermont ahead of the storm. 

As an aside, I'm happy some people are keeping a sense of humor where they can.  I sign posted on the door of the Three Penny Taproom in Montpelier says: "Closed - Lack of Staff With Boats."

We're not nearly through this yet. Another three to five inches of rain could drown some areas of Vermont between now and Tuesday morning. 

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING

Some areas of Vermont were experiencing a bit of a lull in the rain late this morning.  However, yet another patch of heavy rain was still over the worst of the flood zone in southeastern and south-central Vermont as of 11 a.m.  That's surely making an awful situation worse.

Those of you experiencing a lull in the rain should avoid a false sense of security.  You can use the time to carefully fortify yourself and your property against additional rain and flooding. Which is coming. 

One ominous thing I noticed for my early morning blog post here that heavy rain seemed to want to back northwestward into the Champlain Valley.  Several computer models are picking up on this. 

Most of the Champlain Valley until now has been mostly spared. Through 11 a.m. Burlington has had a quite manageable storm total of 0.85 inches. And that was spread over more than 12 hours. 

But now, low pressure over central New York looks like it pull huge amounts of water from the Atlantic Ocean northwestward.  This arrangement would send deep plumes of torrential rain down the Winooski River valley, through Montpelier and on into Burlington and the rest of the Champlain valley.

Aside from the obvious danger from this scenario, the flash flooding would hit before or during the evening rush hour. People will be clamoring to get home amid flooded streets and car wrecks from hydroplaning on the highways. 

Ludlow, Vermont this morning. Photo via Ludlow
Ambulance Service. 

Those headed home toward the eastern Addison, Chittenden and Franklin County foothills might encounter rapidly escalating flash flooding.  That's all a dangerous recipe. I'm not guaranteeing this will happen, but it's enough to worry about. 

This scenario really makes me nervous about the Green Mountains and slopes on either side of them from Killington to Jay Peak. 

That NOAA rare high risk zone for flooding covering most of Vermont has been maintained, except they extended it southward to cover areas closer to Massachusetts.  As mentioned, it's raining buckets in hard-hit southeast Vermont, and there's no reason to think the rain will stop anytime soon.  

This is turning into a longer lasting disaster than Irene. The heavy rain from that storm was in and out of Vermont within 24 hours. 

In this episode, it started at least in spots Sunday afternoon. The rain won't really exit northern Vermont until sometime Tuesday morning. 

RIVER FLOODING

Even as the flash floods subside tonight and tomorrow, river flooding becomes a nasty problem. At best, the water will be high enough to wreck crops.  For instance, all those vegetable farms in Burlington's Intervale are in big trouble. 

Even worse, towns like Montpelier, Waterbury, Richmond, Johnson and Cambridge are in flood plains.  They're all at risk from flooding along rivers such as the Winooski and Lamoille. 

The most troubling sign I've seen is a just updated forecast that, if accurate, would bring the Winooski River at Montpelier to levels a little higher than what they suffered through during Hurricane Irene. That would flood the downtown and be the second highest crest on record, behind the Great Flood of 1927 

If you live in these or any other Vermont flood plain community, I'd consider moving stuff to second floors or higher ground starting now. 

They've been adjusting expected river crests upward, and I suspect hydrologists will continue to do so. As of this morning, the Winooski River is forecast to crest more than four feet above flood stage at Essex Junction tomorrow. That would bring it just below the major flood category.

The Otter Creek in Rutland County is quite flood prone, and this will be no exception. That river was rising rapidly and had just reached flood stage of 8 feet as of 10:45 a.m. It will continue going up, and it's rising faster than forecasts had indicated. 

The Mad River at Moretown just went over flood stage late this morning and was also still rising rapidly. 

WHAT TO DO

If anything, this afternoon and evening could well be worse than this morning. If you're on high, safe ground, continue to stay put. If you're in the Champlain Valley and are able to leave work and go home now before the rain really picks up, do so. 

If you're in a flood prone area, continue to be ready to flee in an instant.  

Most flood deaths are in cars, so the admonishment not to drive onto flooded roads really applies here.  

Dozens of Vermont roads and highways are closed this afternoon.  There is a reason for this, to be Captain Obvious, so don't drive around road blocks and barriers on these roads. 

Expect conditions this afternoon and evening to change quickly in any given place. Keep your devices charged, too, so you can receive warnings. 

Like I keep saying, stay Vermont Strong. 

  

Severe, Life Threatening Flash Floods Today In Vermont, Even If You Feel Unscathed (So Far)

Screen grab from the Warren, Vermont covered bridge
web cam shows the Mad River rising rapidly in
town. Flash flooding is ongoing and getting
worse across Vermont. 

 Flash flooding, as expected, is going on in Vermont and surrounding areas, and it will get worse throughout the day. It's still a hair on fire type of emergency developing, unfortunately.  

I still think this will easily be the worst flooding since Irene. 

This is a rapidly developing situation, so pay attention to warnings from the National Weather Service. That's your best bet for th day. 

The flooding today could easily become life threatening and catastrophic, and in some places in the Green Mountain State, it's already beginning to approach that point. 

Some of you might think I'm an idiot for saying all this, since as of early this morning, some areas away from the Green Mountains have only had a light rain storm so far. 

I emphasize the term "so far" as some areas that only had a gentle rain through 6 a.m. are still in for a very rough ride. 

As of 6:30 a.m, or so, the worst flooding has clung close to the Green Mountains. It looks like south-central Vermont southeast of Rutland is having the worst time so far.  For example:

--- The National Weather Service has declared a flash flood emergency and particularly dangerous situation in and around Ludlow due to the onslaught of water. Such declarations are reserved only for dire, life threatening circumstances. 

--- Swift water rescuers retrieved ten campers from flooding in Andover overnight. 

--- Route 100, the main south-north route through the heart of Vermont's Green Mountains is closed by flooding in Ludlow. Another section of Route 100 in Weston is washed out.

--- Sections of Route 103 in Mount Holly and Ludlow are closed. Ludlow has already reported a whopping 5.67 inches of rain as of 7 a.m. 

--- Route 4 in Woodstock is closed.   So is Route 30 in Winhall and Jamaica. 

The flooding was spreading north early today,  Route 16 in Barton was reported closed at dawn's early light. There's a report of Route 2 being closed around Middlesex. 

THE OUTLOOK

Flash flood warnings were up for virtually all of the spine of the Green Mountains this morning.  The overnight round of heavy rain was getting ready to temporarily taper off somewhat for a short time. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center continues to have much of Vermont in a high risk zone for flooding today, focused most intensely along and north of Route 4 and from the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains west to around Plattsburgh and Saranac Lake, New York.  .

A rare high risk (in pink) zone for flash flooding today
High risk means chances are high that there will
be catastrophic, life threatening floods. 

As I mentioned yesterday, a high risk is very rare and is almost always associated with deadly, catastrophic flooding. 

Rainfall rates in some of the heaviest downpours could reach 1.5 inches per hour, which is a LOT. 

Through 6 a.m, Burlington had had an unremarkable storm total of 0.55 inches of rain.  Interestingly, the Weather Prediction Center places the bullseye of heaviest rain today over the Champlain Valley.

IF that comes to pass, it would be bad for a lot of reason. .Mostly, it's the most heavily populated section of the state. Urban and basement flooding would be widespread. Worse, the towns in eastern Chittenden County would see extreme flash flooding under this scenario as water rushes off the mountains.

Every part of Vermont is at risk for serious flooding today and everyone should be bracing themselves. But I would say people who live within 50 miles either side of Route 7 between Rutland and the Canadian border really had better be on full alert. At least if the NOAA people are right about things. 

By the way, this scenario is also a potential scary problem all the way on up to Montreal.  Severe flash flooding in a big city like that is quite the nightmare. 

Bottom line: If you're in a safe place that's not flood prone, stay put today.  If you're in a flood prone area, be ready to bail at a moment's notice. Have a planned route to get out of Dodge, and remember to have your "to go" bin ready to take with you, containing medicines, important papers, etc. 

And for gawd's sake if you're driving and see the road ahead of you is covered in water, just turn around. Turning around will save your life, and the lives of any brave souls who tries to rescue you from the water. 

WE AREN'T THE ONLY ONES

A minor saving grace on Sunday is that rainfall in Vermont was not quite as widespread or heavy as predicted. That will ever so slightly lower the risk today, but not by a really noticeable margin.

Areas of New York's lower Hudson Valley and parts of Pennsylvania were not so lucky with the rain yesterday. Extreme flash flooding hit those areas.

In what I hope won't be a preview of what happens in Vermont today, more than six inches of rain poured down on West Point, New York in just  three hours. 

The entire area north of New York City had extreme flash flooding.  One woman died after being swept away by water while trying to flee her house. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said several people are missing and at least one home was swept away. 

Historic buildings at the West Point Academy are flooded and damaged. 

Severe flash flooding also struck eastern Pennsylvania and parts of New Jersey.  

Here in the Green Mountain State, be safe and Vermont Strong, everyone! 

Vermont Flood Forecast Worsens: "Catastrophic" Damage Likely In Irene-Level Storm

One of today's "appetizer storms" approaches Fairfax,
Vermont this afternoon with hail, gusty winds and 
torrential rains. Those rains "pre-treated" the ground,
soaking it and making it easier for subsequent
downpours to runoff, worsening expected flooding.

 This is bad.

Very, very bad. 

Don't let the scattered nature of storms and torrential rain early and mid afternoon today fool you. The main show is just beginning in Vermont, and it is one ugly, ugly show. 

I wish I had better news, but forecasters are now calling for possible catastrophic flooding in Vermont, on par with the horrible Tropical Storm Irene flood disaster of 2011.

Clues to how awful things might get are in the National Weather Service South Burlington office Sunday evening forecast discussion. These are usually sober, technical explanations of why meteorologists made their forecasts the way they did. 

If there's scary language in these discussions, you know you are in trouble.  Here's what they wrote:  

"Widespread significant to potentially catastrophic flash flooding are expected overnight tonight into Monday night."

Overall, forecasts call for two to five inches of rain, with a few places seeing seven, eight or even 10 inches of rain by Tuesday morning. That's historic levels of rain, on par with the Great Flood of 1927 or Tropical Storm Irene.

Need more evidence of how bad this could get?

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center keeps us in a scary moderate risk for flash flooding through early Monday. Then, they put most of Vermont in a worst-case scenario high risk for Monday and Monday evening. 

The Weather Prediction Center has four categories of flood risk, and they're similar to severe thunderstorm risks.

From best to worst, they're ranked marginal, slight, moderate and high. 

High risk is panic button level.  According to Weather Underground, a high risk for flash flooding is issued on only about four percent of calendar days each year. I think the last high risk in Vermont was during Irene. 

High risk of flood days account for 83 percent of all flood damage and 39 percent of all flood deaths. 

Worrisome stuff indeed.

THE PARTICULARS

For most of this afternoon, I suppose Vermont has been seeing the appetizers before the main event. Scattered strong to severe storms have popped up here and there, dumping an inch or two of rain in some spots within a half hour. 

Some isolated instances of damaging wind and hail have been reported.

One afternoon storm northeast of Montpelier dumped two to three inches of rain in an hour or two, with more coming at the time a flash flood warning was issued for the area late this afternoon.

Even where the scattered thunderstorms did not cause flash flooding, they pre-soaked the ground to make the runoff from coming downpours even more damaging. 

The first main show was moving into southern and central Vermont late this afternoon. That will continue to spread north this evening. This is the overnight deluge we've been talking about.  This will be the surge of downpours that will trigger the start of widespread flash flooding. 

Coming at night, it's particularly dangerous, as I discussed this morning.  Be ready to evacuate in a moment's notice. Keep a phone by your bedside tonight so warnings will wake you up. 

By dawn, if the forecast is anywhere close to correct, there will be widespread damage in Vermont.  Also at dawn, the rain will be noticeably tapering off. But that doesn't mean it's over. 

During the afternoon, another wave of heavy rain is forecast to move over Vermont. Rather than a bunch of thunderstorms, this will be a big patch of drenching rains moving over the state. Scattered torrential downpours will probably be embedded in this area of rain.

This will obviously worsen the flash flooding that's going on, and send main rivers across the state into flood stage. 

There could even be a third round of heavy rain, especially north and in the mountains, Monday evening. 

This flood will likely be a more drawn out affair than Tropical Storm Irene.  That storm basically mugged us in a day.  We honestly started to suffer flood damage in Vermont Friday.  It's back and intensifying across the state as I write this. 

BOTTOM LINE 

Just be extra careful tonight and tomorrow. In the coming weeks, some of our neighbors and friends will require a lot of help.  We're going to need to be Vermont Strong, just as we were in the aftermath of Irene. 

It won't be just us Vermonters dealing with this. Flash flooding was ongoing across much of the Northeast as I write this, and it will only get worse overnight. 

As you can tell by my tone, I'm upset about all this, as I'm sure many of you are. I'm pretty sure climate change is making this worse than it otherwise would be.  It's an example of the new world we've created. 

This summer has at best been uncomfortable, with bouts of wildfire smoke, insufferable, persistent humidity and now this. It's just so far removed from an idyllic Vermont summer, isn't it?

Stay safe tonight, everyone!  And make sure you have each others' backs.