Not A White Thanksgiving In Vermont, Which Is Fine, But December Could Be Snowy (Results May Vary)

Latest snow forecast for the next couple of days. National
Weather Service has backed off a little on how much
snow wil fall in the Green Mountains. That heavier
snow you see in New York is lake effect 

The other day I brought up that silly children's song about going over the river and through the woods to grandmothers house. 

The premise of the song is that everyone was going to have a Thanksgiving feast at grandmother's house - who once again was stuck with all the work of cooking, hosting, cleaning etc. 

Some of the lyrics in that song go, "The horse knows the way to carry the sleigh/through the white and drifted snow."

Which begs the question, what snow?

We all know it can snow around Thanksgiving, but is this holiday that snowy?  

The ever-helpful National Weather Service in South Burlington has the answer, which is: Not really.

They looked back over the past 70 Thanksgivings and found that at least in Burlington, in 44 out of those 70 Thanksgivings, there was no snow on the ground and none fell from the sky. Five Thanksgivings started the day with no snow, but at least a little fell from the sky that day. Eighteen Thanksgivings had one to three inches on the ground and only three had a snow depth of more than three inches.

So most of the time, that sleigh would have been worthless on Thanksgiving, at least around Burlington. Other parts of Vermont, of course, might have more snow on this holiday. 

Plus, I'm being geographically narcissistic. Putting on my Captain Obvious hat, the setting for "Over The Hill And Through The Woods" could be anywhere it snows, not just here in Vermont.

There are places in the U.S. that could use a sleigh today. There's still plenty of snow on the ground in much of Minnesota, thanks to a storm a couple days ago. Blizzard conditions swept the Upper Peninsula of Michigan yesterday.  Lake affects snows are burying some shoreline communities around the Great Lakes today.

VERMONT FORECAST

At least in Burlington, this is going to be another one of those Thanksgivings with no snow.  It'll be partly sunny, and blustery, and there might be a few cold, light rain showers blowing by. 

Tonight, it will be cold enough for snow showers, so we have a shot at being the sixth Thanksgiving with no snow, but maybe some in the air. We'll see.

The snow showers will hit the northern and central Green Mountains tonight and tomorrow. Forecasters have backed off a little on accumulations. Still, the ski areas could pick up a few inches of snow, which is nice. Valleys should get just a dusting to an inch or two. 

We're still looking at another modest storm on Sunday which will probably send a little more rain through Vermont, with maybe some snow way up high.  

The weather pattern is still leaning somewhat toward cold, and stormy in December, at least according to NOAA. Although long range forecasts are notoriously sketchy, which means I can't promise anything. 

So no promises yet on whether we'll see a white Christmas or not.  

Vermont Joe's Pond Ice Out Came On Thursday, The Premier Sign That Spring Has Arrived

The famed Vermont Joe's Pond ice out contest
ended at 8:41 p.m. Thursday when a cinder block
fell through the melting ice on the Danville, pond
which stopped the clock and heralded this year's winner

 The ice broke on Joe's Pond in Danville, Vermont at precisely 8:41 p.m. Thursday, April 17, spelling what I consider the official end of winter in the Green Mountain State. 

Joe's Pond Ice Out is an annual tradition in which thousands of people buy tickets to place bets on the exact time ice breaks on the relatively high elevation pond in Vermont's Northeast Kingdom. This year, a record 16,749 tickets were sold for $1 each. 

Half the proceeds go to the person who came closest to correctly guessing the moment the ice went out, and the other half goes toward Joe's Pond water quality initiatives and an annual Fourth of July bash at the pond. 

To determine ice out, a cider block is attached to a pallet that's placed on Joe's Pond ice in the winter. pallet and cinder block are tethered to a clock on the shore. When the ice melts enough, the pallet and cinder block fall through the ice, disconnecting the tether to the clock.

That makes the clock stop, which determines the exact moment ice out hits. This event has been going on since 1988.

Ice out has happened as late as May 6, 1992 and as early as April 5, in the extraordinarily warm early spring of 2010. 

This year's ice out was earlier than long term average, following a trend that has been noticeable in the 38 years since the contest started.  Perhaps climate change is affecting the Joe's Pond ice out contest. 

In the first 20 years of the contest, ice out came on or after May 1 on seven occasions. In the past 18 years through Thursday, a May ice out happened only once, on May 4, 2018.

This is the sixth year in a row that Joe's Pond Ice Out occurred before April 20.  Such a string of early ice-outs had not happened before. There had never been as many as two consecutive pre-April 20 ice outs until this current stretch. 

As of this writing, the name of the 2025 Joe's Pond ice out winner hadn't been announced yet. That winner will receive a $7,835 check. If there's a tie, the winners will divide the proceeds.  

 

Joe's Pond Ice Out Came On A Chilly April Pre-Dawn Sunday

 The ice on Joe's Pond in West Danville, Vermont went out at 4:02 Sunday morning, meaning whoever guessed that time is in for a surprise pot of money. 

It's official! The famous Joe's Pond 
ice out hit at 4:02 a.m. Sunday. It
was the fifth earliest ice out
in the 36-year history of the event. 

The ice out is determined by a block set out on the pond during the winter. It's tethered to a clock placed on shore. When the block falls through the ice into the water during the spring thaw, it disconnects the wire, stopping the clock. 

 The moment the clock stops is regarding as Joe's Pond ice out. 

Thousands of people buy tickets at $1 a pop to guess when the ice will go out. Whoever comes closest to the time win.  The person who won with this morning's ice out is set to collect about $5,000.

The ice out early Sunday was the fifth earliest in the 36 years this has been going on at Joe's Pond. In a post I wrote in this here blog thingy back on February 25, I advised people to bet on an early ice out, given the record warm winter. 

I had thought it was possible we'd have a record early Joe's Pond ice out this year given the thin ice caused by a lack of cold nights and frequent thaws through the winter.  

After all, it was practically the year without a winter in Vermont - the warmest on record. 

I think a couple of factors kept this from being a record early year. Spring snowstorms on March 23 and April 4 laid down a layer of brilliant white snow on top of the Joe's Pond ice. That reflected the sun's heat back up to space. That meant ice on the pond couldn't melt as efficiently. 

Also, in three of the four Joe's Pond ice outs that were earlier than this year's record warm spells happened during or just prior to the ice out times and dates. Temperatures up in the 70s to near 80 of course really melt the ice quickly.

National Weather Service in South Burlington released this
graph showing the trend of earlier ice outs over
the years at Joe's Pond. 

This  year, we had some warm days in March and early April. But since early March, we haven't had any record early season heat.   That might have slowed the pace of the melting down a little. 

The timing of the ice out was interesting. Temperatures had to be barely above freezing at Joe's Pond when the ice went out at 4:02 a.m. Sunday. 

The block was probably just barely hanging on the edge all day Saturday and into the evening. Something as simple as a gust of wind might have nudged it through the ice early Sunday. Who knows, right?

Still, this year's Joe's Pond ice out continues a trend of earlier and earlier ice outs. Prior to 2010, there were no ice outs earlier than April 16.  Since then, we've now had five of them. 

No More Snow Days? Remote Work Has Many Schools Rethinking Winter Days Off

A snowstorm in New York City. The city's school chancellor
has announced there will be no more snow days/school closures 
during winter storms. Instead, they'll switch to remote ]
learning on stormy, cold days. 

 Just a disclaimer here. You will see many mentions in this post that many of you will consider a dirty four letter word that you're not ready for.

Ready? That word is "snow."  So let's get on with it:

The awful pandemic proved that you can get away with working and learning from home via technology. 

Which is prompting some school officials to commit what some kids might consider sacrilege. No more snow days. 

New York City, for one, has announced there will be no more snow days for schools during winter storms. Instead, there will be remote learning. No matter how bad the weather.

New York is joining other towns and cities that are scrapping, or thinking about scrapping winter snow days. 

As early as late autumn, 2020, nearly 40 percent of school districts in a survey were converting snow days to remote learning days, according to, Education Week. Many other school districts were considering it, according to Education Week. 

As David C. Banks, New York's Department of Education chancellor said, "So, sorry kids - no more snow days, but it's going to be good for you!"

I'm not so sure.  

On one hand, it makes sense to change snow days to remote learning days to some extent, but it's still disappointing. It's true that kids need all the education they can get, and by law, they have to be in school for a certain number of days per year. If there's too many snow days, school extends into the summer. 

On the other hand, remote learning isn't as good as in person learning.  That's especially true for families that can't afford decent technology. Or can't obtain or can't afford decent internet access. As we learned in the pandemic, remote learning is also incredibly disruptive to parents who have to work. Do they call in sick to monitor the kids at home? What if their employer doesn't offer sick days? Then they don't get paid. 

I get it that parents also have to watch the kids and miss work if there's a snow day.  I'm not a parent, but I honestly wonder if it's easier to just let the kids play in the snow rather than monitoring them to make sure they're engaged in online earning.  Any parents want to weight in on this for me? I could use the enlightenment. 

One school district in New Jersey told Education Week that they are keeping snow days as it's tradition, a normal rite of passage for kids.  And I agree with that. Even if that means all the kids who had the day off for a snowstorm end up on the sledding hill behind the school. 

I'm in favor of snow days over remote learning. Kids, like all of us, deserve an unexpected break from the routine. Big snowstorms are a nice departure from the usual weekly blah, blah, blah anyway, so why not make winter storms a bit special?