Climate Change, Iran War And El Nino Are Painful, But Might Drive Humanity To Renewable Energy

The Iran war is causing all kinds of economic headaches
worldwide. But in the long run, it could push

As if the world's weather wasn't screwed up enough by climate change, El Nino is about to make it all worse. And Donald Trump's war of choice in Iran might well team up with El Nino to really make things scary. 

First, El Nino, a periodic warming of the equatorial eastern Pacific, seems imminent. As we've already reported, is expected to be huge.  They're calling it a super El Nino, which will make any effects from the phenomenon writ large. 

Strong El Ninos can substantially heat up the world. Earth's temperature is already near record highs thanks to climate change. If El Nino and climate change team up the way forecaster think, weather and climate disruptions in the form of record storms, record heat, massive droughts and floods could really amplify many of the problems the Iran war is causing. 

According to Lawfare:

"A climate change-fueled El Nino will amplify the growing shocks of the Iran war, many of which will unfold over the coming year even in the unlikely case that risk of renewed conflict resolves soon."

The publication noted us the situation is reminding us "That Mother Nature gets a vote on our priorities, too, and that climate resilience is inseparable from global security goals."

Even if by some miracle the Iran war ends tomorrow, the problems and potential crises remain. 

Lawfare again: 

 "Even if the strait is durably opened, it will take time to clear backlogged ships, for insurers to feel confident that transit is safe, and for damaged or shuttered oil and gas facilities to resume production. Countries would normally be stocking up on natural gas over the spring and summer for winter heating needs, and El Nino could further intensity pressure with intensified heat, electricity demand for cooling, and energy grid strips this summer

Countries in Southeast Asia are already scaling back on air conditioning, concerns that dangerous summer temperatures could crash electric grids and kill citizens."

Here in the United States, A Brown University analysis released on May 18 shows Trump's Iran war has cost American consumers $41.9 billion more at the fuel pumps since late February.

OTHER ASPECTS

This isn't just about oil and gas.

A third of global maritime nitrogen fertilizer trade are blocked due to the closed Gulf of Hormuz. Also, says Lawfare, countries that depend on Middle Eastern gas to produce their own fertilizers have shut down production. 

Also, "farmers who are planting tomorrow's food now have been forced to delay planting, switch crops, or accept subpar yields. Food security can be disrupted further as fuel and logistics costs rise, agriculture land is repurposed for newly economical biofuels, and countries potentially react with protectionism and export restrictions that spike prices further."

In the long run, this mess might undermine Trump's goal of propping up the fossil fuel industry. Oil shocks in the 1970s and 1980s, the Gulf War of 1990-91 and the Ukraine war all prompted industry to emphasize fuel efficiency. Global per capital petroleum use declined after the 1970s oil shock and never recovered noted Juan Cole in Informed Consent. 

Cole argues that the Straight of Hormuz crisis shows signs of what he calls a "chronic ailment."  Iran will probably always be tempted to develop a nuclear arsenal. Israel and the United States will probably keep striking. "In short, Israel and the United States have destabilized the Persian Gulf and global oil and natural gas supplies for the foreseeable future."

In other words, the price at the pump is going to stay annoyingly high for a long time. And that's the least of our problems. 

In the United States, Trump is still squawking drill, baby drill.  The Trump administration ended tax breaks worth up to $7,500 last year. Despite that, car buyers in the U.S. will probably keep turning more and more to EVs if gas prices stay high. 

Nations around the world see the writing on the wall.  Cole, in Informed Consent, has many examples. 

In the United Kingdom, EV sales rose a record 24% over the same month a year earlier. It helped that the average cost of  EVs in the UK are now a little less expensive there than similar gasoline-powered cars.  Europe is seeing a big jump in demand for rooftop solar systems. 

China is going through a boom in EV production. In 2024 they produce more than 12 million electric, hybrid and fuel-cell vehicles. India is building an EV future, currently building out a network of charging stations.  Pakistan has reported a boom in electric vehicle sales since the Iran war started.

Asia is especially prone to disruptions in the Persian Gulf oil pipeline, so you can see why the 4.8 billion people there are embracing an electric vehicle future. 

"Those who've fought to keep the world hooked on fossil fuels are inadvertently supercharging the global renewables boom," said Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of the UN's climate secretariat UNFCCC, as reported in Reuters. 

Trump's war in Iran is all bad news. For us and for Trump. With this war, Trump's goal of propping p the oil and gas industry forever might be slipping through his fingers.   

Cold Waves And EVs Don't Mix; Need Better Technology

EVs don't work that great in frigid weather, as many
frustrated Midwesterners saw this week during a cold snap.

Arctic cold blasts and EVs still don't mix.

At least if you want to get somewhere in that Tesla, or whatever EV you prefer. The problem: They don't hold charges very well in frigid temperatures. And it's hard to re-charge them when it's bitterly cold.  

That's a problem for everyone trying to wean us off fossil fuels, which are causing climate change. 

I can see the irony of Arctic cold messing up devices and inventions meant to blunt global warming. I'm sure the climate change deniers are gloating. 

However, climate change does not prevent winter. It can still get damn cold in the winter, especially for those of us in the northern tier of states.  Cold waves are becoming somewhat less frequent, generally not as long lasting and for the most part less intense than they used to be. 

Anyway, back to the EVs. As Axios reports:

"Not only does charging take longer in freezing temperatures, some electric vehicles owners are surprised to find out how much their car's driving range is compromised by winter weather."

So you have EVs that are taking forever to charge, and they have to be charged more frequently because colder than a Karen's glare out there. 

Around Chicago, Tesla supercharging stations were littered with dead cars and people waiting hours to at least attempt to plug in the vehicles. One man quoted by Fox32 Chicago said, "We got a bunch of dead robots out here."

Once car owners waited out the line and finally got their EV to a charger, it took hours to charge in the frigid temperatures. The temperature fluctuated in Chicago between just 3 above zero to 10 below continuously from late Saturday night through 6 a.m. this past Wednesday. Chicago temperatures are forecast to stay below normal until about Monday.

Experts say EV owners should pre-condition their batteries in cold weather, meaning you have to get the battery up to an optimal temperature to accept the right charge.

Good luck with that. Many people don't have garages. And how many heated public parking garages are there for EVs?

There are a lot of reasons that need to be fixed to make EVs better in cold weather. The chemical and physical processes in batteries slow down when it's cold, which is part of the reason why their range doesn't last and it takes longer to charge

Gasoline powered cars also use the heat from the engine to warm the passenger compartment on frigid days.  That engine heat is not available in EVs. Manufacturers are installing heat pumps in some of these vehicles to help, but it's not a cure-all.

It's true that internal combustion cars have their own problems in cold weather. Batteries die in those vehicles, too. Plus belts and such get brittle and can break.  But EVs still have a technological and public relations problem in the winter. 

Clearly, that EV technology has to get better before we can fully embrace EVs. They need a bigger range, there needs to be faster charging, and the problems with cold weather need to be addressed. 

I'm sure people are working on these fixes. I noticed last summer a Chinese company said it had developed materials and technology that would improve charging capacity for EV batteries, especially in frigid weather. We'll see if that helps. 

Plus, there are advantages to EVs in addition to the important work of reducing our reliance on fossil fuels. 

The last longer, are generally cheaper to fix, and there are some pretty good federal tax credits if you buy one. 

But like it or not, the public will not fully embrace EVs unless they become almost as convenient as gasoline powered cars.  Unfortunately, people aren't thinking about climate change when they're late for work. Or freezing in a parking lot with a dead car. 

 

EV's And Winter: Are They Ready For A Northern Prime Time?

Electric vehicles still don't do super great in winter, but
they're better than you'd expect. 

 We're heading toward an era of electric vehicles, or EVs. Gasoline powered cars and trucks might go the way of the dinosaurs before you'd think. 

California has already passed a law that would ban gas powered vehicles starting in 2035. This is especially important because other states usually follow California's lead when it comes to auto emissions. 

We're headed toward EVs because they are better at preventing the release of greenhouse gases the contribute to climate change. 

But here's an important question for those of us living in the Great White North, since winter hasn't exactly been repealed yet:  How well do they work in the winter?

The short answer is not great, but passable, given the current technology. 

As the Washington Post notes:

"Lithium-ion batteries perform more sluggishly in cold temperatures, cutting into an electric car's range when temperatures drop close to freezing. (For what it's worth, gas powered cars also don't perform perfectly in the cold."

Yeah, but gas powered vehicles at this point do better than EVs. At least in general and until smart people make EVs last a long time without a charge in any weather. un 

There's two major winter problems with EVs.  One is, the lithium-ion batteries perform best at around the same temperature humans do - around 70 degrees. 

The other problem comes into play if you're stuck in a big winter traffic jam in an EV. When it's cold, gas powered vehicles can redirect wasted heat from the engine into the passenger space to keep people warm. 

This is a function of the inefficiency of gas powered cars. They produce all kinds of heat that usually doesn't  do much good.  That's part of the climate problem with traditional vehicles. They emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. And they emit more than they should, because of the inefficiency of the internal combustion engine.

However, as WaPo reports, EVs are efficient, which actually could be a problem during a January Arctic cold snap:

"According to the Department of Energy, EVs  use over 75 percent of their energy to propel the car. That means there isn't much waste heat available. Instead, many EVs warm their passengers through electric resistance heating (essentially heating a wire and blowing air over it.

Cabin heating accounts for the lion's share of what drains the EV battery in cold temperatures. According to a 2019 study from AAA that tested five different EVs in 20-degree Fahrenheit temperatures, on average the cars lost 41 percent of their range with the cabin heater on. With the cabin heater off, however, they lost only about 12 percent of their range."

If you're a wimp like me, you don't want to sit in a car on your commute to work freezing your butt off. You also want to get to work without the battery in your EV dying halfway there. 

But then there's a more dangerous aspect to this.

If you're stranded in a blizzard on some highway, you'll get colder much faster in an EV than you would in a gas powered car, assuming you have a full tank of gas.

Plus, if the snow drifts are cleared and you can move on again, but have run out of gas, a good Samaritan with a five gallon jug of gasoline can get you started so you could make it to the next gas station. 

 How do you recharge an EV in the middle of nowhere if it runs out of juice? The news on this is better than you'd expect. 

Here's an example: On January 3, 2021, a quick hitting, intense snowstorm trapped thousands of vehicles on Interstate 95 in Virginia  for more than 24 hours. 

That calamity got people thinking about EVs and winter storm emergencies. As Wapo pointed out: 

"After the Virginia highway debacle, many EV owners, YouTubers and journalists tested their electric cars in freezing temperatures to see what would happen. One journalist for Car and Driver found that, at subfreezing temperatures, his Tesla Model 3 with a resistance heater could keep the cabin warmed to 65 degrees Fahrenheit for a maximum of 45 hours. That number could rise to 50 or 60 hours with a heat pump."

So maybe the winter safety technology with EVs is better than the old fart writing this post realized.  

Here's another factoid: The nation with the highest number of EVs per capita is Norway. It's a lovely country, but not exactly a tropical paradise. Those Norwegians seem to do pretty well with their EVs in the icy dark of a Scandinavian winter.  

Many EVs come equipped with heat pumps. They're more efficient because they move heat to where it's wanted, instead of creating heat that then has to be moved. In cold weather, EVs with heat pumps have nearly double the range of similar vehicles that don't have heat pumps. 

If you live in a usually cold place like Vermont and are considering buying an EV, make sure a heat pump comes standard. 

I guess it's like a lot of things in life. With EVs, you have to plan your range, your trip, and hope that the technology improves while remaining affordable. 

So far, this winter has been kind to Vermonters with Evs. It's been warm, and it hasn't snowed a lot, thanks in part to the climate change brought to us in part by all those gasoline-fired cars and trucks. 

However, climate change isn't nearly enough to cancel winter. we have plenty of subzero days ahead. If not this winter, then in future winters. 

EVs are perfect, even in Vermont, for people who don't need to do a lot of driving, don't have to do a lot of planning and don't need to drive a rugged vehicle. 

I'm absolutely sure EVs are in my future. Due to the nature of one of my jobs, involving unpredictable trips and heavy loads in the bed of my pickup truck, I'm still not sure I'm ready for a winter with an EV.

I'm confident that they're making EV pickup trucks that are getting better and better at withstanding Vermont's rugged winters and roads.   I hope they become good enough soon to satisfy even the people who are toughest on their trucks.