Deluge Time Today In Vermont As Summer Air Gets Flushed Out

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington
produced this map with forecast rain totals. Many places
in western Vermont can expect more than two inches of rain

 UPDATE 2 PM SATURDAY

The downpours are over-performing late this morning and this afternoon in spots, so we are still watching for flooding through this evening.

A flood warning was issued this morning for the New York side of the Champlain Valley and the Adirondacks. That's because the band of occasionally heavy rain was just not moving. 

Plattsburgh, NY reported 2.4 inches of rain so far as of 2 pm. 

Some areas there have gotten three or more inches of rain already.  One particular trouble spot is the East Branch of the Ausable River, which is under a specific flood warning.

In Vermont, occasional bouts of heavy rain have moved in, especially west of the Green Mountains. 

That heavy rain in western Vermont was in no hurry go anywhere   as of 2 p.m., so occasionally heavy rain should continue through the afternoon. Burlington's storm total through 2 p.m. was just 0.8 inches of rain. But a lot more should come down between now and this evening.  I'd say a few areas in western Vermont could see as much as three inches of total rainfall, or even a bit more than that. 

Although widespread flash flooding remains rather unlikely in Vermont, there's a decent chance that there could be some problems in steep terrain, says NOAA's Weather Prediction Center.  Street flooding from clogged drains and erosion problems on steep gravel roads and driveways also remain possible. 

If you see water across a road, don't drive through it.  You don't really know how deep it is, or whether the roadbed beneath is damaged.

I'm sorry we're talking about flooding again after the summer we had.  I'm just glad the soils had dried out before this storm hit.  Had things been really soggy, today would have REALLY been a problem.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Steady rain has ever so slowly moving across New York State since yesterday morning and at dawn this Saturday morning was just edging into Vermont's Champlain Valley.  

The rain - at least for this morning - will continue to push east at a crawl. But as the feed of moisture from the Atlantic increases, and gets a bit of a boost from former Tropical Storm Philippe, the rain will come down harder as the day goes by. 

I'm still fairly relaxed about the flood threat, despite the fact western Vermont is in for two to four inches of rain by tomorrow.  Eastern Vermont will be "drier." They'll get one to two inches of rain. 

Over toward Maine, where the actually remnants of Philippe will hit, they're expecting a good three to five inches of rain, strong gusty winds and a flood threat. 

Here in Vermont,  the ground is relatively dry, rainfall rates most of the time will be manageable, so the suspicion is that if there is any flooding, it will mostly be fairly minor and scattered. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center still has us in a slight risk zone for flooding, so it's something to keep an eye on. 

So far, there are no flood watches up for Vermont, as it looks like there will be nothing widespread to worry about. 

However, I expect a few trouble spots mostly because it's autumn. Fallen leaves will clog storm drains in more built up areas. Before the rain really sets in, see if any storm drains near your house are cluttered with leaves and clear them out of the way. Your neighbors will thank you. 

Along rural gravel roads and driveways, the fallen leaves can pile up at obstructions in brooks and creeks, creating surprisingly effective little dams. 

Those dams can clog up culverts, leading to local washouts. Or those leaf dams could suddenly break, sending an extra torrent of water downstream. 

Rivers will rise, and by Sunday morning, many main rivers will be pretty high.  Some water might back up into low lying farm fields and such.  If there are any flood plain roads near you that always seem to go under water, they might do it this time, too.  

Clouds gathering over St. Albans Vermont late Friday
afternoon as heavy rain slowly rolled across 
New York, headed to the Green Mountain State today.

It was still amazingly warm and muggy out there early this morning. The temperature at 7 a.m. in Burlington was 68 degrees. That's warmer than the normal high for today. It has been continuously above 60 degrees Wednesday morning, which is insane for October.

If you're going out today, bring a jacket along with your rain gear, because temperatures will fall with this very wet cold front. From west to east across Vermont this afternoon and evening, temperatures will drop into the 50s, with 40s overnight.

Sunday's weather is still not looking great, but not as gawd awful as I thought yesterday.  It will be chilly, especially compared to the weather this month up until now. We'll see some light showers around, mixed with splashes of sun. A gusty west wind will add to the chill.

Although a lot of autumn leaves will have been blown or washed off the trees by this storm, a lot of color will be left, especially away from the Northeast Kingdom and higher elevations. 

The dark clouds, the showers, the peeks of sun and the autumn colors could make for some striking fall photography tomorrow afternoon and evening. 

Next week will bring us kind of so-so weather for a Vermont October. 

Belated Vermont Transition Into Autumn Is Just Beginning

The first clouds of the storm that will give Vermont 
heavy rain and a sharp cooldown produced a lovely'
sunrise today over many areas, including here in St. Albans.

Thursday, as expected, was the third day in a  row of mid-summer in October. 

Burlington had a record high for the third day in a row, reaching 83 degrees.  That broke the record of 82 set in 1926.

 By the way, October 5, 1926 must have been an interesting day, as it also holds the record for wettest Oct 5, with 2.09 inches.  

The upcoming storm has a good shot at bringing Burlington and many other areas of Vermont more than two inches of rain. So in a way, history is sorta, kinda repeating itself. 

Today will be one last warm day, but it won't be in record territory. It is amazing that we're this late into the season and we still haven't had a day where the temperature stayed below 60 all day. We also had very little in the way of frost.

Pretty impressive for early October.

As we've been advertising, we'll finally get into cool autumnal air by Sunday.  But the way the weather pattern is setting up, I still don't see much threat of a widespread frost around here. 

First, we have that rain storm to deal with. Clouds will keep increasing today, and winds will continue to gust out of the south.

We'll see rain make ever-so-slow eastward progress into northern New York today. Some showers will probably make it into Vermont tonight, but the real downpours in the Green Mountain State won't set in until the late morning, afternoon and evening. At the time, the cold front will be strengthening, and bringing in boatloads of Atlantic Ocean moisture. 

New England will see two swaths of heavier rain. As it looks now, the core of one of two heavy bands of rain will go up through western Vermont, with slightly less further east. Rainfall totals could go as high as 2.5 inches or even a little more from the Green Mountains westward.

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center still has us in a slight risk zone for flash flooding Saturday into Sunday.  I don't want to minimize the risk, but I still don't think flooding will be all that extensive. 

I'll bet there will be street flooding in urban areas, as heavy rain mixed with falling and fallen leaves clogs storm drains.  The might be some new erosion on some steep gravel roads, especially in the Green Mountains. There will probably be some minor field flooding, and major rivers will rise.

Those bigger rivers won't burst their banks, though. Or if they do, it won't be by a wide margin. Bottom line: Downtown Montpelier, Barre, Ludlow, Johnson and other communities hit hard by flooding in July look safe for this storm. 

A second band of heavier rain will hit Maine. That will be associated with dying Tropical Storm Philippe.  

Philippe is about to start transitioning to a non-tropical storm, and will have completed that transformation by the time it makes it to Maine early Sunday. But it should bring plenty of tropical moisture and heavy rain to Maine, and a little bit of that could spill over into New Hampshire and Vermont. This system will eventually get absorbed into a much larger storm over Quebec.  

That will make for a pretty nasty Sunday, as it looks now. We'll have frequent showers, especially north, overcast skies, gusty winds and chilly temperatures.  It will truly feel like a new season. Those Sunday showers won't be especially heavy, so any flood threat generated from the downpours Saturday and Saturday night shouldn't worsen any on Sunday.

Next week still looks to be on the cool-ish side, but nothing odd for October. The threat of frost, as noted, will be low. There could be some of that in the colder valleys next week if we get any periods of clear or mostly clear skies at night.