November Heat Lasts (Part) Of Another Day; Eta Surprises Again

A last gasp of fall color on another unseasonably warm
November day yesterday in Burlington, Vermont.

 We're nearing the end of some really remarkable November warmth in Vermont.  All good things must come to an end.  

Though it won't be sunny like past days, and some showers will move in, we still have a shot at hitting 70 degrees once again today.  

If that happens in Burlington, Vermont, that would make it five days in a row in which temperatures reached 70 degrees. Previous, the most consecutive days on record in November with such days was three.

At dawn, it was 63 degrees in Burlington, which is a bit warmer than the normal morning low temperature in mid-July. 

This really has been quite the break.  The heat in  my house in St. Albans, Vermont hasn't been on for a week. Like we do in the summer, we've left the doors to the deck wide open so the dogs (and us "hoomans" for that matter) can come and go as we please.  Bonus: No bugs fly into the house this time of year. 

A cold front will pass through Vermont later today, ending this heat wave. Unfortunately, there won't be much rain coming with this cold front.  We need the rain. Even more so now that we've had such a dry November so far. 

This cool down will, at first, be nothing scary. Temperatures Thursday through Sunday will be near or a little above normal for this time of year. That means highs in the upper 40s and low 50s, lows near the freezing mark, in general.

A balmy sunset Tuesday over St. Albans, Vermont 

This IS November, though, so you have to expect some wintry weather eventually. Monday night and Tuesday, we can expect a quick shot of some Arctic air, with maybe some snow showers around. 

This cold snap doesn't look remarkable by November standards. Highs Tuesday won't get out of the 30s, and probably won't even get above freezing in some places. 

That chilly weather also looks like it will be short-lived.  We won't see 70 degree weather again until next spring, unless something truly bizarre happens.  But it seems that chances are, based on long range forecasts, that near to somewhat above normal temperatures are a fairly good bet on most days until at least Thanksgiving. 

TROPICAL STORM ETA

Eta continues to confound forecasters as it continues its meandering path it started in the western Caribbean around October 29.

Now, it's off the west coast of Florida and strengthening again. It appears it has a shot of regaining hurricane status again today.  A hurricane watch is now in effect for part of the west coast of Florida.

Eta is now forecast to come ashore north of Tampa as a strong tropical storm, or possibly even a category one hurricane. It'll then, hopefully, finally die on its trek across northern Florida and then off the coast of the southeastern United States.

It's been such a busy tropical storm season that an unprecedented 97 percent of the U.S. Atlantic coastline has been under some sort of tropical storm or hurricane warning or advisory this year. 

Way out in the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Theta continues to churn with no threat to land 

More Record Vermont Warmth, Hot Year, And Eta Trouble

Another record warm, sunny November day is dawning in
the Northeast, so we've put our palm tree back out on
our weather deck in St. Albans, Vermont 

 More record highs are falling around Vermont and elsewhere as a strong November heat wave continues.  

Among the record highs were 70 degrees in Montpelier, 69 degrees in St. Johnsbury and 72 degrees in Springfield

No fewer than 46 record highs were reported in the eastern United States Sunday. More records are sure to fall today and tomorrow.

Burlington, Vermont fell short of a record high Sunday. It "only" got to 72 degrees, just shy of the record 74 degrees set in 1996.

Today, Burlington has a better shot at a record high.  The record high for today is 68 degrees and the forecast high is 70. 

This is quite a contrast to last year, when winter hit early and hard.  Exactly one year before Burlington had that 72 degrees, the high temperature on November 8, 2019 was just 30 degrees. And there was 2.6 of snow that day.  

We ain't getting any snow for a few days at least, folks. 

We've had a lot of warm weather this year in Vermont, no doubt.  We could easily have one of our top 10 warmest years on record. 

I added up all the temperature records so far this year, then assumed temperatures in November and December would come out just exactly at average.  That would make this year the fourth warmest on record in Burlington, with a mean temperature of 48.5 degrees.

The warmest year on record was 2012, with a mean temperature of 49.2 degrees.

We could even move up in my projected rankings.  It's really beginning to look like this November will come out warmer than normal.  But of course who knows what December will bring.

I'm beginning to sound like Steve Kornacki at the NBC Big Board on election week, so I"ll stop with this for now. 

TROPICAL STORM ETA UPDATE

We had yet another landfalling tropical storm in the United States last night as Tropical Storm Eta moved over the Florida Keys. 

It was the 12th tropical storm or hurricane to strike the United States this year. The previous record for most tropical storms to hit the U.S. was nine, back in 1916.

Storm surge flooding and high winds hit the Keys, but it seems the worst effects of Eta so far are in South Florida, especially in and around Miami and Fort Lauderdale. 

Feeder bands of torrential rains keep swirling into South Florida and were continuing to do so early Monday morning.  Many roads and streets there are under water and impassable.

Tropical Storm Eta might strengthen into a hurricane for a time in the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next day or two.  It looks like it's going to meander aimlessly out there much of this week, then maybe head back toward northern Florida.  That forecast is still on the uncertain side, though. 

Tropical Storm Eta And This And That

Forecast tracks for Eta have in meandering around the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and harassing Florida for the 
rest of the week.

Tropical Storm Eta, - I've been calling it Zombie Eta after it came back to life near Honduras this past week - was making landfall in Cuba this morning with top winds of 65 mph or so. 

It's still expected to dump a LOT of rain on South Florida as it drifts over the Florida Keys by early Monday morning. So, yep! The United States gets to experience yet another tropical storm at the tail end of this busy hurricane season. 

Eta might actually achieve hurricane status with sustained winds of 74 mph or more.  The Florida Keys can expect winds at least gusting to hurricane force and some dangerous storm surge flooding in these low lying islands.

For good reason South Florida is under a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch for tonight and early Monday. 

From there, Eta is forecast to drift pretty aimlessly in the eastern Gulf of Mexico for the rest of the week, creating a continued threat for the western coast of the Florida peninsula.  On the bright side, there's hope that Eta will gradually weaken out there in the Gulf, done in perhaps by strong upper level winds and dry air getting sucked into the system.

Of course, there's no guarantee Eta will weaken  like that.  Some forecast models keep it as a hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico this week. 

As we well know,  tropical storms are often unpredictable, and the way this year has gone, anything can happen, right?

BLUE SKY HISTORY

I think everybody knows by now that history was made Saturday as Joe Biden was declared, at least by all the major media outlets, as the victor in this year's presidential election.

This prompted an outpouring of happy partying in numerous cities across the United States 

I was struck by the blue skies and warm temperatures that coincided with this  Two of the most historic days in my memory were like this.

People remember the dark day of 9/11 also hit on a gloriously blue sky day.  People still remember that sky.  Things were similar Saturday, but this time it was totally joyous. Though of course I do have to acknowledge the disappointment among Trump fans. 

However, history will most likely focus on the beyond-happy outbursts in many cities in the United States under those clear blue skies. Including here in Vermont. 

 RECORD HIGHS IN REGION

As expected, temperatures in and near Vermont are getting into record territory. In Montpelier, it reached 71 degrees Saturday, breaking the old record high for the date if 69 degrees, set during a similar long lasting November heat wave in 1975.

Plattsburgh, New York soared to 75 degrees, besting the old record of 71 degrees in 1948.

Forecasts continue to indicate more record highs will be set around here today, tomorrow and Tuesday.