Midafternoon Hurricane Milton Update: Destructive Tornado Outbreak Precedes All Hell Breaking Out

Screen grab of a traffic cam video of a large tornado
that had just crossed Interstate 75 in Florida.
A big tornado outbreak is preceding the worst
of Hurricane Milton 

Fears I mentioned this morning have been realized.

Before the worst of Hurricane Milton reached Florida, the state is being raked by a tornado outbreak that has prompted more than 50 warnings for the twisters. And counting. 

As I wrote this at 2 p.m., there were more than a dozen tornado warnings in effect across Florida. 

The tornado threat will clearly continue through the afternoon and into the evening. Tornado warnings are flying as far east as the Atlantic coast, such as just south of Melbourne. 

Some of the tornadoes that touched down have been quite destructive.  A large tornado tore the roofs off several homes around Fort Myers. Which means the winds and torrential rains of Hurricane Milton will finish those houses off. 

With the tornadoes buzzing around, the wind getting stronger, bursts of rain and storm searches creeping in this afternoon, an atmosphere of fear has taken over Florida. People are hunkered down in shelters, or have fled the worst of the hurricane zone, not knowing if they'll have homes to return to. 

As of 2 p.m. Hurricane Milton had top winds of 130 mph. Those winds are down from 165 mph this morning. This was expected. Hurricane force winds will still rake all of central Florida with this thing. 

Winds are forecast to be in the 95 to 105 mph range in a zone stretching from Tampa to Fort Myers. Gusts to 80 mph will make it across Florida, through Orlando to the Atlantic coast.

As of 2 p.m. winds were already gusting to at least 45 mph along the central Gulf Coast of Florida. 

Also, this so-called weakening trend in Hurricane Milton is happening too late to prevent the horrific storm surge that has long been anticipated. 

The area to be hit by the worst storm surges is still a bit of an open question. Hurricanes like this tend to follow a wobbly path. A slight jog of 10 miles to the north or south will make a huge difference on how the storm surge unfolds in particular towns tonight. 

For instance, if Milton heads further south than anticipated, people in Tampa Bay might be surprised by a not as bad as expected storm surge. On the other hand, if Milton shifts a little north, the storm surge in Tampa Bay would be even worse than the horrors that have already been imagined and predicted. 

The uncertainty is tough on people. Anytime people are frightened, uncertainty just makes everything worse. Hurricane Milton is obviously a physical catastrophe. It's also a mass mental health crisis for Floridians. 

The rain with this thing looks to be incredible in many areas. As of 2 p.m, Sarasota had received four inches of rain already and the hurricane was still well offshore.

This mess has only just begun. We'll do another update toward evening. 

Northeast Kingdom Flash Flood Waters Receding Fast, But Damage Severe, No Deaths So Far

Severe flood damage near St. Johnsbury
this morning. 

 By some miracle, I have seen no deaths or serious injuries from a highly local, but incredibly extreme flash flooding in the Northeast Kingdom.  

At least as of 1:30 p.m. 

There were two spots in the Northeast Kingdom that really got bullseyed by what amounted to stalled storms. One was centered on St. Johnsbury, the other around Morgan and Island Pond, with plenty of trouble also between those two locations. 

Those two epicenters received five to a little more than eight inches of rain in just four hours. The highest total reported so far was 8.41 inches in one location within St. Johnsbury

At the Fairbanks Museum and Planetarium near downtown St. Johnsbury, the deluge deposited 7.96 inches of rain, making today by far the wettest day in the 130 years weather records have continuously been kept there. The old record was 4.99 inches. 

The torrential rain was highly localize. The eastern end of Danville on the St Johnsbury town line had a whopping 7.4 inches of rain. The western end of town just six miles away barely managed an inch of rain if that. Cabot, immediately to the west of Danville, just had a third of an inch. 

The storm was extreme, but not as widespread as flooding earlier this month. This time, almost all the damage was in Essex and Caledonia counties, corners of Orleans County, and Grafton County, New Hampshire. 

In the Northeast Kingdom, basically if you were about ten miles west of Interstate 91 you had little or no trouble with rain or flooding last night. 

Meteorologists are astounded by amount of rain. Peter Banacos, the science and operations officer at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, told VTDigger the rainfall was "extreme" and "just off the charts to see that kind of rainfall in six hours."

About two dozen people were retrieved by swift water rescuers and are now safe.

There were some very close calls. Vermont Public says.

"'This poor woman had a tiny home built near the river,' said (Lyndonville Fire Chief Jeff) Morrow. "Just as her tiny home got sucked away down the river, she went swimming and my team ended up finding her in the river. She is currently at the hospital, but she's okay."

Another tragic photo from this morning, this one posted 
on Facebook by Jan Eric Welch. 

Dozens of people are stranded behind washout out roads. Authorities told people in the Northeast Kingdom to shelter in place if their homes are not damaged, or at least safe.  Most of East Lyndon and East Burke were cut off from their surroundings. 

It's hot and humid this afternoon, as expected. Scattered showers and thunderstorms were beginning to develop, as forecast, and they will become somewhat more widespread as the afternoon wears on. 

Still, they will be hit and miss. Most of the storms won't cause trouble, unless they focus on areas already hit by the flooding. 

It's possible we could see one or two storms in Vermont become briefly severe this afternoon with damaging winds and microbursts. The vast majority of us should come out of that OK, however.

Forecasters are keeping a close eye on possible more widespread heavy rain again tomorrow