Time To Declare Peak Summer Over

About this time every year, I get the sense that the Vermont summer's days are numbered.

A pretty sky over Williston, Vermont after low clouds finally
cleared Wednesday. For some reason, I associate this kind
of sky more with early autumn, not summer. 

I've gotten that sense over the past couple of days. I declare high summer over. 

Don't worry, summer-like weather is not gone until next year.  We'll still have our share of warm, humid days. There might even be another spell or two of 90 degree weather thrown in there between now and the middle of September. Plenty of pleasant days await us between now and winter. 

But it's time to put a fork in summer.  It's now what us Vermonters call "Fair Weather. 

Most people think of fair weather as blue skies dotted with puffy clouds and pleasant temperatures. And that's a top characteristic of Vermont's "Fair Weather." season

In the Green Mountain State, and I'm sure in other places, fair weather corresponds to the time of year in late summer and early autumn when all the county fairs roll into town.  It's the bridge season between summer and autumn.

Fair weather is characterized as conditions that don't exactly feel like mid-summer, but it's still warm.  Too warm to regard temperatures as "autumnal." It's something in between.  On the Midway at the fair, you're down to a t-shirt and sweating a little in the afternoon, but you'll need a sweater or fleece for the nighttime grandstand show. 

Being a person who focuses on all the subtle change of seasons,  I'm seeing all the signs  that high summer has ended.  

I noticed it on Tuesday, and especially Wednesday, when the now waning summer sun was not strong enough to overcome an inversion that put us under some relatively cool low clouds and fog.

When the low clouds finally cleared Wednesday afternoon, the sky had that late summer/early autumn character of broken clouds, but not the billowy, towering kind you see in mid summer. 

Showers bubble up in the distance Thursday as viewed from 
Georgia, Vermont.  Storm clouds in late summer to me often
don't look as vigorous as they do in mid summer, and
these clouds are an example of that. 

A couple of lines of showers and thunderstorms passed through Vermont Thursday, but they lacked the oomph you see with these things in say, July.  

Mid-summer cold fronts are lame things; you don't even notice when they pass through. Last evening's cold front brought a quick gusty, chilly shower, followed by cool north breezes. The air obviously changed.  Felt like a September cold front to  me. 

During the height of summer, temperatures usually hit at least 80 degrees in the afternoon. Such warmth begins to become less likely after mid-Auguts.

 According to the latest forecasts, we probably won't see 80 degree readings again for at least a week. 

I've often seen it cool off in the middle of August in Vermont only to return at least briefly to mid-summer heat toward the end of the month or around Labor Day.

Chances are that will happen again this year. Especially since the climate is warmer than it was decades ago. 

I remember at least one August (1982) when it snowed on the ski slopes of Killington. I've also seen frost in August (1965 and 1976) That kind of thing is not going to happen this year! 

So, don't put those air conditioners away just yet. Keep those swim suits and that sun screen handy. The peak of summer is over, but that doesn't mean summer weather is that far way. At least for now. 

Autumn Officially Ended Last Week With Final Leaf Drop

The poplars that lose their leaves last in the season finally
did so last week as the three trees abruptly became bare
in St. Albans, Vermont 

 People have varying opinion as to when autumn ends and winter begins.

My loose definition is when the last of the leaves are down. .That moment often matches the time when we get our first measurable snows, so it kind of works. 

On my St. Albans, Vermont property, we have three immense poplar trees I call The Triplets. These trees hold onto their leaves longer than most others.  

The leaves stayed on even longer than  usual this year. But The Triplets knew when winter was coming and finally gave up the ghost.

The Triplets let go of most of their leaves in just two days late last week.  This happened right when the first forecasts hinting of snow hit the airwaves. They knew what was coming. 

Below is the YouTube video of the Triplets saying goodbye to their growing season.  As usual, if you're on a mobile device, you might have to click on this hyperlink to view it.

For others, here's the video:

Signs Of Summer: Scattered Afternoon Showers, Lots Of Bugs, And Far Away, A Tropical Storm

We're getting into the season when most of our rain comes
from scattered showers and thunderstorms instead of 
dreary day long rains. Here's a view of an isolated 
thunderstorm in 2019 over southern Quebec, as 
viewed from Georgia, Vermont. 

It didn't feel like it outside this morning, but we're watching the weather pattern turn into a summer type regime before our eyes. 

It's Vermont, so summer-ish weather isn't always warm, but it has its distinct character.

Earlier in the spring, when we get rain (or, dreadfully snow), it's usually in the form of steady precipitation that lasts for hours as a large scale storm system passes by. 

Think back to last Wednesday, when we had a day-long soaking rain.  That's the cool season type of storm I'm talking about. 

Once we get toward summer,  the jet stream becomes a little more sluggish, and the large scale storms tend to be weaker. You can still get day long rains any time of year, but starting now, that kind of weather becomes much less likely.

Instead, we're moving into the time of year where most of our rain comes from scattered showers and thunderstorms. Most of those hit in the afternoons and evenings.  This is what we have to look forward to for the next few months. 

This is starting right away. A cold pool of air aloft set off some afternoon and evening showers yesterday, and will do so again today.  Here was already a couple showers around this morning, but they will be more numerous this afternoon. There's even a chance one or two places could hear a rumble of thunder. 

The showers will be hit and miss.  Some places won't get any rain at all.  Some places might get several showers today.  Nobody will really get a lot of rain out of this. If you have outdoor plans, you probably might have to sneak inside to wait out a shower, but it won't last long. 

There's a lesser chance of afternoon showers Wednesday, but they could still hit here and there. 

After a dry Thursday, weak disturbances will give us the risk of daily afternoon and evening showers through the weekend and into next week. 

Given that we've lost these big large scale storms, timing these small disturbance is tricky.  So is gauging their ability to produce lots or few showers or storms. At least well in advance, anyway. Just take it one day at a time. 

This being Vermont, we're not exactly getting into the summertime warmth and humidity anytime soon. It'll be cool for the season today and tomorrow, and in the near normal range of upper 60s to around 70 by Friday and the weekend.

I always look forward to this type of showery and thundery time of year.  The gray skies of a day long rain are more often than not kind of boring looking. 

Spring and summer showers and thunderstorms create blossoming and billowing tall clouds that are much prettier and interesting to look at than the dull stratus clouds. It's why people lay back in grassy fields in the summer and watch clouds go by. 

Also, it can get pretty dramatic under a particularly strong thunderstorm, so that's fun. Note: I see no signs of any severe weather coming up with the showers and rumbles of thunder we can expect over the next several days. 

The drawback to this new season is, of course, bugs. 

We're getting into the heart of black fly season in Vermont, and they're SO annoying, as everybody knows. 

It tends to be less windy the later you are in spring.  You wish for gusts of winds to blow the black flies away, but they are usually not forthcoming this time of year. You have to deal, I guess.

Far, far, away, there was another sign of summer over the past few days. A weak tropical storm formed off the west coast of Mexico over the weekend. It didn't amount to much. But since tropical storms and hurricanes are mostly creatures of summer and early autumn, that was a sign of a change of seasons. 

Still, this tropical storm, named Andres, was the earliest on record to form in this part of the world. Hurricane season in the eastern Pacific Ocean off Mexico doesn't even start until May 15, so this one was definitely an early go around. 

When Winter Wants To Be Spring

Satellite view of much of New England/New York on a clear
Sunday afternoon. Click on it to make it bigger and easier
to see.  Some notes: You can see much of Lake Champlain
remains ice-free (dark blue). Bare ground, free of snow,
is edging very close to the southwestern and southeastern
tips of Vermont. Champlain Valley looks whiter because
of more farm fields without trees so you see the snow better
Specs of dark green are evergreen forests at high elevations

As a weather geek, I find a lot of those "on the cusp" seasons like we're going through now in Vermont pretty fascinating.  

It's been a truly winter week in Vermont, but spring has been chomping at the bit, begging to be recognized.

 It hasn't been above freezing since last Monday and parts of Vermont were below zero early this morning.  The wind chills have also often been below zero. Dustings of snow have come down here and there. 

Sunday was as bright a winter day as you can get. That brightness under a clear blue sky was all the more intense because of the much higher sun angle this time of year, at least compared to early winter. 

 The sun is as high in the sky now as it was in those Indian Summer days of early October. 

If you stood in a sunny, protected area out of the north breezes on Sunday, it felt like spring. Step out from the sunny spot and you were back in mid-January chill. 

The late winter landscape of Vermont is just as confused as this winter/spring hybrid we get this time of year. In most spots, the snow is crusty, hard, frozen. But the sun is ever so slowly carving hints of spring into what otherwise seemed an impenetrable, permanent blanked of snow and ice. 

Under the pine and spruce trees, the dark green needles collected the heat of Sunday;s sun, and bare spots appeared and expanded beneath the trees, while nearly a foot of snow sat firm just outside the reach of the branches. 

The narrow paths to the shed I carved with a shovel during the winter slowly widened, the sunlight collecting warmth on the grass at the base of the paths, and chewing the snowbanks backwards away from my side. The widening paths are slowly making the winter snow seem less claustrophobic. 

There was even a hint of a squish of mud as I walked down those paths.  

Even on a day as cold as Sunday, dark colors, like this spruce
tree, collected heat from the strong March sun and melted
the snow beneath the tree. A sign of spring on a winter day.

The very white snowbanks along my driveway stayed put, except for corners where the sun's angle was a perfect laser to soften the snow. 

Out by the road, the dirt and grime on the snowbanks also collected the sun's heat. The filthy snow pile by the mailbox quickly retreated, bleeding out a little salty meltwater in the process. 

While I took all this in during my afternoon stroll, the midwinter Canadian north breeze chilled my nose and hands, while my black fleece collected the strong March solar power and kept my core warm.  

These early signs of the melt season proved that spring is eager, even as winter keeps trying to slap the change of seasons backwards.  

This week will be in spring's corner. It'll be a little warmer today, so any sun that comes out will be more effective than Sunday's.

Winter might throw down a handful of pathetic snowflakes or freeze a bit of drizzle to the tree branches late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Yet, an afternoon thaw will set in, slowly melting a little more snow, even in the shade. 

A quick spell of truly springlike air Wednesday and Thursday will erode a lot more snow, but not completely rid of us of it.  Still, less snow will invite more freedom to walk around. I might be able to wander all over my yard without fear deep snow will go over the top of my boots and pour down onto my cold, suffering feet.   

Since it's early March, this taste of a snow meltdown might be short-lived.  For all I know, a snowstorm later this month or in April could punch us in the gut with another quick foot or two of snow. Already, it looks like we'll slide into mid-winter cold again next weekend. Long range forecasts hint at possible snowstorms later in the month.

But as I watched bits of snow dissolve Sunday in the late winter sun, despite a chill north wind, I knew the days of cold and snow are numbered. If we get a bunch of snow again, its lifespan on the ground will be measured in days, not weeks like the snow that fell on us back in January and February. .

Crocuses loom not far behind.