From Snow To A Fire Risk As Quick Spring Weather Changes Continue In Vermont

It''s that time of year when we start seeing
brush fire dangers in Vermont. For
today, yellow areas have a  high
fire danger, while blue areas
have a moderate danger. 

 Most of the snow from earlier this week has melted away - at least at low elevations. And now, Vermont suddenly faces a brush fire risk today. 

As expected, yesterday featured wall-to-wall sunshine and very low humidity. That evaporated most of the snow quickly to the point where I could tell by late afternoon that the dry weeds from last year were tinder dry already. 

True, there were still patches of snow in the shadows where the sun wasn't able to penetrate. But those patches are few and far between. Today, believe it or not, is a day to be really, really careful with fire.

Especially in the Champlain Valley. 

TODAY

The high pressure that brought the record cold Wednesday morning to Saranac Lake, New York and Montpelier, Vermont has headed to our east, as expected. 

A squeeze play was setting up between that high pressure to our east and a cold front far to our northwest. The result is some dry south to southwest winds that were already starting to pick up in the Champlain Valley as of 8 a.m.  

Those winds will keep increasing. By late this morning though early evening, gusts will reach to between 35 and 40 mph in the Champlain Valley and 20 to 30 mph elsewhere. Except maybe in the lower Connecticut Valley and protected valleys in eastern Vermont, where the winds will be a little lighter.

Since it's so dry, the slightest spark could set that dry brush on fire. That fire would spread fast and be hard to control given how gusty it is and how dry the air is. 

The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation says there's a high fire danger all through western Vermont west of the Green Mountains. Also in the lower Connecticut River Valley, which has had little precipitation recently. Elsewhere, the fire danger in Vermont is moderate. Mostly due to a few snow patches and wet spots left in mid elevations. 

This sort of situation is common in April. Parched, sunny air and winds can really dry out all that dead brush, even if it rained or snowed just a couple days earlier. 

We already had one small, but briefly out of control brush fire in Northfield yesterday, even before the wind started to blow. So today's the day not to flick your cigarette butt out your car window. And that brush pile in the back 40 that needs to be burned should wait for some more damp weather. 

Which is on its way. 

TONIGHT/FRIDAY

The dry winds will continue to blow tonight, but not as strongly . The humidity will be a little higher.  There might even be a brief sprinkle north, but don't count on it. All those factors will diminish but not get rid of the fire danger.

The winds and fire risk should continue for part of tomorrow. but that cold front will slowly approach, then arrive with its showers in the afternoon and evening. 

This will be no means be a blockbuster rain, but it will tamp down the fire risk. Some areas of northern Vermont could see up to a third of an inch of rain, but most of us should stay under a quarter inch.  Southeastern Vermont, and maybe parts of the Champlain Valley could stay under a tenth of an inch. So not exactly a memorable storm. 

By the way, hights today ad tomorrow should be well into the 50s to maybe low 60s in spots, so fairly mild!

WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK

It'll be a classic bright April weekend in Vermont with cool breezes, and a fair amount of sun. Highs both Saturday and Sunday will be fairly close to 50 degrees, but Sunday should be the warmer of the two days. 

Things kind of get interesting next week as a sort of stalled weather pattern develops. Vermont will stay near a boundary separating warm, humid air to the south and chilly air to the north. We might start getting a few days thrown in where the far north of Vermont is in the 40s and low 50s while the far south is in the 70s. 

For now, though, the first couple of days of next week look pretty balmy statewide.

That's not a firm forecast yet, because we don't know exactly where the front will set up on any given day. Also, again, depending on where the front and disturbances riding along position themselves. It also looks like there's chances of showers or even thunderstorms each day next week starting Monday 

This pattern is also ominous for much of the Plains and Midwest, as it creates conditions for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes out there. 

Vermont Weather Week Ahead: Normal Weather For A Change!

Pretty much normal weather coming up in Vermont 
this week, but there's always a few surprises. As dawn
broke, a few unexpected dark clouds, and in a
few spots, a couple surprise showers this morning.

For a big change, I'm not going to talk scary weather in Vermont.

There's no big heat wave coming in.  Not much in the way of humidity to talk about, either. There's no gigantic flood risk. It's not going to be cold, either,  No tornadoes, no locusts, not much in the way of weirdness, either. 

For once we have a sort of normal weather week coming to Vermont. Normal  for this time of year means highs in the 70s to around 80 and lows in the 50s to around 60. It also means the ever-present risk of showers here and there. 

We're going to be close to that "normal" game plan all week.  But this being the Green Mountain State, expect plenty of day to day changes and some surprises here and there. 

The first surprise is this morning. There were a few showers scattered around as of 7 a.m., which I didn't expect. 

As of that hour, most of them were in eastern New York, heading into the southern half of Vermont.  They didn't look especially heavy, and I imagine they will clear out later this morning. A few other showers lurked in northern New York, so a couple places in the upper half of Vermont could get briefly wet, too. We'll see. 

Those showers did appear to be weakening somewhat, but that might not be the end of it. 

FOR STARTERS, AN UPPER LOW

After those unexpected scattered light showers clear out this morning, it should be a mostly nice day.  Some sun, highs getting close to 80, humidity reasonable. 

But I can't say there's no further rain risk. The latest in a series of upper level low pressure systems is starting to dive down from eastern Canada.

As previously advertised, this one is weaker and warmer and faster moving than the system that caused the chilly, dreary weather this past week. Still, it'll bring us some weather. Again, nothing extreme.

A few more isolated showers or even a rumble of thunder could pop up this afternoon, with the best chances the closer you get to the Canadian border. 

Again, we could see an afternoon surprise or two. Up until now, most forecasts had limited the risk of showers and storms to the far north and kept them very few and far between.

Some computer models just released this morning suggest more scattered storms, not just isolated ones. They'd still be hit and miss, but instead of just affecting areas north of Route 2, a few could pop up just about anywhere.  

If you have outdoor plans today, you might need to move inside for a little while to avoid lightning and quick downpours. That doesn't apply to everyone, just some unlucky towns here and there. 

Monday

On Monday, as the upper low dives southward and over New England, plenty of showers and thunderstorms will develop as this thing destabilizes the atmosphere. 

A couple storms could be strong-ish, and there's a marginal chance that one or two will create some damaging wind gusts during the afternoon. So, if you're very unlucky, you might briefly lose power, and lose a couple tree branches, too.

It won't be humid enough to cause super torrential downpours, and the storms will be moving too fast anyway to drop all that much rain. So for once, Vermont will not see any flooding. Or flooding risks. Hallelujah!

Tuesday:

A classic late summer day as the upper low gets out of the way. We'll have a fair amount of sunshine, and it will feel rather humid again.  Again,  nothing extreme.  

Later Week

Long range forecasts from a few days ago had strongly hinted at some possible late season heat to close out the month of August. Meteorologists have backed way off on those projections, now that we have better data. 

Instead, strong high pressure in eastern Canada looks like it will shove another cold front southward across Vermont around Wednesday. That'll bring some showers, and some cooler air. 

Once again, by cool, I mean air that might only be a couple degrees below average for this time of year. Nothing out of the ordinary for the end of August. 

It's possible - but not definite - that we might get a quick squirt of hot, humid air toward next weekend. But new cold fronts also lurk then, too.  

This being Vermont, I'm sure some unexpected things will come up during the week. Like they always do. But it is nice that the weather is actually "boring" for a change. 

 

Active Vermont Weather Week: Downpours, Thunder, Sharp Cold Fronts and Snow?

Like in a scene from "The Mist," a fast moving wall
of fog quickly swept into St. Albans, Vermont Sunday
evening amid a day of shifting weather, clouds,
showers and brief downpours

 We had another sort of weird weather day on Sunday with a wide mix of weather in Vermont.

That'll set the tone for the rest of the week with some locally torrential rain today, thunderstorms, too, followed by a sharp, stormy cold front later in the week, cold north winds, and --  Yep! hate to say it, a real possibility of a little snow.   

Before you panic, any snow would be limited to elevations above 3,000 feet, so most of us need not worry. 

Let's take things piece by piece.

On Sunday, a cold front settled southward into Vermont and stalled. That lead to two afternoon weather regimes. North of Route 2, by afternoon anyway, it was a bit chilly, ,damp and definitely rainy. 

South of Route 2 it was cloudy, humid with scattered showers. 

Since there seemed to be some pretty good energy in the disturbances riding along the front, there was some convection, too, which led to locally  heavy downpours.  And some odd weather moments.

As I noted on Twitter last evening, here in St. Albans, it felt for a time like I was in the Steve King horror book and movie "The Mist."

After hours of calm wind and drizzle, suddenly we had a gush of wind from the west and a wall of dense fog swept in. Luckily, I didn't notice any big scary man eating creatures in the mist, so I guess we're good. 

Rainfall was light in southern Vermont Sunday but amounted to up to an inch far north. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans, Vermont had collected 0.9 inches by 8 a.m. today.

All this sets the stage for today. 

MONDAY

The latest rainfall map from the National Weather Service
office in South Burlington. One to two inches of 
additional rain is due through 8 a.m Tuesday, with
locally higher amounts 

That front is still stalled across us, and a pretty decent storm is moving west to east along the front. Already, early this morning, there have been scattered, brief, sporadic downpours. Already, a batch of thunderstorms was moving across northern New York toward Vermont as of 9 am. 

The rain, showers and scattered downpours will increase as we go through the day. 

Updated forecasts have reduced the risk of flooding from today's rains but have not entirely erased that risk. 

Most of Vermont should see another inch or two of rain today. That's good news, as we're still trying to recover from a summer drought. 

But a few areas could receive some repeated downpours, much like last Tuesday. Which means it's possible a few towns could see rainfall totals in the three to four inch range.

Since the ground is wetter than last week, it won't be quite as efficient at soaking up that much rain in a short amount of time. So if that heavy rain develops anywhere, there could be a few pockets here and there of flash flooding. 

Any flooding that does develop shouldn't be too widespread. Today's rains should make main stem rivers like the Winooski, Lamoille, Missisquoi and Otter Creek rise by two to four feet, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington. 

Since  these rivers were running low before the onset of rain on Sunday, those rising river levels shouldn't cause any flooding problems.  Overall, NOAA's national Weather Prediction Center has the core of today's heaviest rains over Vermont, with all of the Green Mountain State, along with adjacent portions of New Hampshire, New York and Massachusetts under a slight risk of flash flooding today and this evening. 

That's level two of five alert levels. It means the risk of spotty flash flooding. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has Vermont
bullseyed under a slight risk of flash flooding today.
The risk is for local instances of high water in spots
where downpours are especially persistent

Tomorrow will be much quieter. Cool. Mostly cloudy, some showers around, nothing too wild. 

NEXT COLD FRONT

On Wednesday, we'll be ramping up for the next system. As clouds increase, you'll notice it getting somewhat warmer and vaguely humid. That'll be the first sign of a powerful autumn cold front heading our way.

Out in western New York, the front will arrive early enough in the day to produce some late season, severe thunderstorms. 

The band of showers and storms will get here late in the day and at night. Because of the late timing, severe thunderstorms seem unlikely at this point. However, we're still in line for some gusty evening and night time storms.

Thunderstorms at night are pretty rare in September, but in this case it looks like we might get them.  We could get up to an inch of additional rainfall. Since these storms will be moving right along, they won't linger long enough to set off anything worse than minor street flooding and ponding on roads.

Get your woolies out on Thursday. A north wind will blast in. It'll be mostly cloudy and temperatures will fall through the 50s during the day. Up in the mountains, above 3,000 feet, we could see the first light snows of the season Thursday evening and night. 

After that, we'll need to watch for frost in the cold air that will linger Friday and into the weekend.