Wednesday Evening Vermont Thanksgiving Storm Update: Getting A Little More Intense?

Wednesday evening snow prediction map. Projected
amounts have gone up some, but the high elevations
of southern and central Vermont are in the sweet spot
for heaviest snow. Looks like everyone in Vermont
will get at least a little, though. 

 A few changes to the forecast came up this afternoon that could make the long-hyped Thanksgiving storm a little wilder in at least parts of Vermont than first thought. 

The forecast track of the storm nudged just slightly northward compared to this morning's forecast. 

That could well put a band of especially heavy snow into parts of southern and central Vermont for a few hours Thursday afternoon.

The slight adjustment to the forecast would also put central Vermont ski areas in play for several inches of snow. And unlike this morning's predictions, the Champlain Valley now looks like it will get a little snow. Not much, but a little. 

The bottom line is depending on which part of Vermont you're in, the storm you experience will be far different than if you a Vermonter in another part of the state.

Details: 

The sweet spot still looks like the high elevations of southern Vermont.  There, heavy, wet snow will accumulate quickly, especially during the afternoon. 

That means roads in that part of the state could become nearly impassable at times. Power outages look like a good bet, and some back roads might be blocked by snow, and fallen branches and trees.

Meanwhile, people in nearby low elevations like Bennington and Brattleboro might wonder what all the fuss is about. 

The mid and high elevation heavy snow, or at least heavy-ish, now looks like it will extend to central Vermont. Yay! Sugarbush and Mad River Glen!

A classic November landscape in St. Albans on Wednesday
with shafts of sun and dark clouds mingling with
stick season. By tomorrow afternoon and evening, virtually
all of Vermont will have some snow on the ground,
and parts of central and southern Vermont will have a lot.

This storm has a boatload of moisture with it, so that's one reason for the heavy snow potential. It's also a quick mover, so this will be in an out quickly.

 Which is why the forecasts don't really call for one of those 20 inch blockbusters. But a foot of snow in some spot is not out of the question.

Things will go downhill in the morning, and start to clear up a few hours after dark Thanksgiving night. 

For the record, a winter storm warning is up for the two southernmost counties Vermont, east of Route 7 in Rutland County, east of Route 116 in Addison County, along with all of Windsor, Orange and Washington counties. 

Places under the winter storm warning can expect four to nine inches of snow, except locally more in higher elevations. Especially at places like Okemo and Mount Snow. 

A winter weather advisory is up for the rest of Vermont except Franklin and Grand Isle counties, where no particular alerts are up. The advisory zone should get one to four inches of new snow.

The Champlain Valley still looks like it'll have a lot of rain mixed in, but there should be a complete changeover to some snow in the later afternoon or evening. So many areas there will see their first accumulations of the season. Though it won't be spectacular.

Bottom Line

Expect highly variable travel conditions in Vermont all day Thanksgiving, but it will be mostly bad on the roads.  The higher you go up in elevation, the worse it will get. At times in central and southern Vermont, the snow will accumulate too quickly for road crews to really get on top  of it. 

The storm will probably peak from late morning to late afternoon or early evening. 

If you don't have to travel Thanksgiving day, don't. If you want to get to your Thanksgiving destination safely, try to get there by 7 a.m. tomorrow. 

If you want to leave, consider waiting until Friday morning to do so. By then, the storm will be out of our hair, and road crews will have had a chance to clean everything up. 

Power outages are most likely in mid and high elevations of southern and central Vermont and are most likely in the afternoon. 

For many in Vermont, this will be the biggest Thanksgiving snowstorm since the granddaddy of big humdinger Thanksgiving snows back in 1971. 

 

Closely Watched Hurricane Forecaster Predicts A Doozy Of A Season

Colorado State University researchers say the upcoming
hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean will
be especially busy this year. 

 The first widely watched forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season was released Thursday, and predicting a wild season. 

With big caveats, of course. 

Every year about this time researchers at Colorado State University, a well-regarded hurricane and tropical weather forecast center give us their initial take on what the upcoming hurricane season will be like.

They're takeaway: The fine folks at the National Hurricane Center had better be on their toes this summer and autumn.

The Colorado State University hurricane geeks tell us they expect 23 named storms (tropical storms or hurricanes); 11 full blown hurricanes and five major hurricanes, which are defined as storms with wind speeds of at least 111 mph.

An average Atlantic hurricane season would bring us 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, three of which would be major. 

In other words, Colorado State expects a blockbuster season. 

"'This is the highest April forecast that we have put out,' Philip Klotzbach, a Colorado State meteorologist and Atlantic hurricane forecast, said in a video news briefing," reported NBC News. 

Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean runs from June 1 through November 30, though you can occasionally get tropical storms before or after those dates. The season usually peaks in late August and September. 

We have two main reasons why forecasters are worried about the upcoming hurricane season.

One of them is Atlantic Ocean water temperatures. Hurricanes thrive on warm ocean water. The hotter the better. 

Ocean water in most of the Atlantic, including in areas where tropical storms and hurricanes tend to develop are at record highs. Ocean water heats up through the spring summer and sometimes into early autumn. Right now, water temperatures in the hurricane development zone are already where they should be in June. 

If the water keeps warming up at this pace, that will be jet fuel for hurricanes. 

Another worry is the expected transition from El Nino to La Nina.  El Nino is a periodic warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean off the coast of South American. We've been in an El Nino for many months now, which has worked in conjunction with climate change to create extreme warmth around the world.

El Nino tends to cause high winds aloft over the Atlantic Ocean, which rips apart wannabe hurricanes before they can really rev up. 

El Nino is fading in favor of La Nina. That will probably cool the world ever so slightly, though climate change will keep the record heat waves and big storms going pretty consistently. 

La Nina also weakens those strong upper level winds over the tropical Atlantic, which gives wannabe hurricanes a nurturing atmosphere to grow and become powerful. 

What matters most, of course, is where a hurricane ends up going.  A super strong Category 5 storm that goes harmlessly out to sea and dies in the cold waters of the North Atlantic isn't really that big a deal.

That same Category 5 taking a path that smashes it into a populated coastline is another thing altogether. 

Colorado State does give a greater chance than usual of a major hurricane hitting somewhere along the United States coast.  They give a 62 percent chance of a hurricane packing winds of at least 111 mph somewhere between Brownsville, Texas and Eastport, Maine. Usually, they give about a 47 percent chance of this happening in any given year. 

Hurricane forecasts this far in advance are of course iffy.  Other factors can erupt that would disrupt a busy season. However, Colorado State researchers say their confidence in this early prediction is higher than it usually is when they take a first stab at hurricane forecasts in April every year. 

The researchers know the chances of the forecast being off are still fairly high. But they release the predictions in April to satisfy public curiosity and to raise awareness of the dangers posed by hurricanes. 

It serves as a reminder to those living in hurricane prone areas to spend time now seeing if their insurance is adequate, whether they have gear to protect property in a hurricane, and have an escape plan or a hunkering down plan in advance.  

Flash Flooding In A Drought? It Can Happen. Will It?

Despite rather dry conditions, there
is a low chance of some flash flooding
in areas in green. A bit more of a risk
in yellow areas.

Yes, yes, you've heard it already. It's dry out there in Vermont. We need the rain. I'm happy some rain is falling today. Bummed we have a hot, dry spell coming. Yada, yada, yada. 

So why is flooding mentioned today in the Vermont forecast?  

No matter how dry it gets, you can always still see too much of a good thing. If a beneficial downpour lingers in one spot too long, you can run into trouble. And it's possible that could happen today and tonight in a few spots 

Before we get too carried away with this, the chances of any flash flooding are on the low side. If it does occur, it will happen in relatively small areas. Most of us in Vermont will actually receive less rain than we'd want.  

There's also a low, but real chance of locally severe storms in central and southern Vermont too. 

Let's break it down. 

A warm front was lifting north through Vermont early this morning.  An area of light, sometimes moderate, decent rain was clipping northwestern parts of the state.  As I write this, it was raining steadily outside my St. Albans home. It's lovely to see the rain.  I spent the day yesterday stirring up dust in my gardens.

Northern Vermont, though, will probably miss out on the heaviest rains, although there certainly be more showers here through today and into tonight. (As of 7 a.m., Burlington had missed out entirely, just sprinkles there).

Today's interesting weather is slated for central and southern Vermont.

Wind flow and upper air disturbances seem to want to align just right later today and this evening to form the risk of training showers and thunderstorms. 

As a reminder, training storms are ones that line up and go repeatedly, one after the other, over the same spot, like boxcars on a freight train moving along the railroad tracks .

Training storms set up a narrow band where rain is excessive, and can lead to flash flooding.   Indications are this could happen somewhere through central New York and southern or central Vermont. The risk of flash flooding is fairly low,  but one worth mentioning to be on the safe side. 

It's hard to tell in advance exactly where, and even if, this band of training storms would set up to create the risk of flash flooding.  If it does, a few places could get two to four inches of rain, or even a tad more within a short period of time. 

This morning's best guess among forecasters about where this might happen would be in central New York, through the Lake George/Saratoga area and on into southwestern Vermont somewhere between Bennington and Rutland.   

There is a marginal risk of severe storms
today in central and southern Vermont.
Any bad storms will be pretty isolated.

Areas as far north as Montpelier and Wells River could still share in this excitement, but the risk there is lower.

Be on the lookout for this tonight if on the roads. This is a situation in which one town just some rain while the next town over gets deluged. You're driving along and everything's fine, and all of a sudden you encounter water from a flooding small stream gushing across the road, or the road is washed out beneath the water.

Also, some of the flash flooding, if it does occur, would hit at night, so it's harder to see if you're on the roads. 

Water from heavy downpours that do occur tend to run off quickly, so today's rain - even if it causes local flooding -  will be no drought buster.

By the way, a few thunderstorms in southern and central Vermont could become severe later today with damaging wind gusts. 

The Storm Prediction Center has this area under a marginal risk for severe weather, which is the lowest of five alert categories. Any severe storms will be isolated and pretty brief.

There might be some more interesting weather and skies Saturday evening as the long advertised heat wave begins to take hold. 

Indications are some severe thunderstorms, maybe even a couple tornadic ones, could form well north of the border in parts of Ontario and southwestern Quebec.

Toward evening, some of these storms could come near or cross the border into far northern Vermont. Certainly no tornadoes here, but there is still a rather low, but not zero chance of severe wind gusts to a couple locations in the far north. 

In any event, there could be a fun light show of lightning flashes for people in Vermont looking north toward Quebec Saturday evening.