Vietnam Reeling From Typhoon Yagi

Satellite view of intense Typhoon Yagi, shortly before
it caused an extreme disaster in Vietnam.

 While people in Louisiana deal with Hurricane Francine today, on the other side of the world Vietnam is staggering in the aftermath of Typhoon Yagi.  

The storm has killed at nearly 150 people at least, with many more missing, reports the Washington Post.  It's believed to be the worst typhoon to hit Vietnam in at least three decades.

 It was the worst typhoon on record in northern Vietnam, which is usually less prone to these storms as southern parts of the nation. 

Crises hit all over the place in Vietnam. The capitol, Hanoi, was flooding as a river through the city burst its banks. Thousands have been evacuated from parts of the city and many schools are closed. 

The Guardian reports a landslide caused by flash flooding swept away an entire village, killing 16 people and leaving dozens missing. 

A metal bridge collapsed from flooding during the storm, taking five cars and four motorbikes with it, the Washington Post reported. Nine people died in that incident, but three others were rescued. 

Typhoon Yagi had winds of 125 mph, gusting to 155 when it came ashore in Vietnam.

The typhoon might seem awfully distant to us, but it could still affect you and me. As The Guardian explains: 

"Typhoon Yagi also severely damaged a large number of factories and flooded warehouses in northern Vietnam's export-oriented industrial hubs, forcing plants to shut, with some expected to take weeks to resume full operations, executives said.

The disruptions could affect global supply chains as Vietnam host large operations of multinationals that mostly export their products to the United States, Europe and other developed countries."

 Before hitting Vietnam, Typhoon Yagi struck Hainan, an island province in southern China. At landfall on that island, Yagi had top winds of around 160 mph, becoming the strongest typhoon in China in a least a decade. Four people died there.

At one point, Yagi was directly over the city of Haikou, population three million, with 140 mph winds, so it's impressive that so few people died on Hainan. 

The storm extended its reach into the Philippines, killing at least 20 people there. 

Videos:

A dash cam recorded the moment a bridge collapsed from flood waters created by Typhoon Yagi. The collapse killed several people. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that:

Dramatic scenes from Haikou, China from Typhoon Yagi.  Note the brief view of the cars on a Ferris wheel being flung in circles in the wind. Click on this link to view or if you see the image below, click on that. 

 Huge amounts of downed trees in Vietnam from Yagi. Click on this link or click on the image below if you see it to view:

Japanese Palm Tree Gains Big Fans After Surviving Punishing Typhoon

 There's something about certain trees that I become deeply emotionally attached to.

This palm tree in Japan, nicknamed Yasshi, was whipped
violently recently for hours by a typhoon. It was on a 
live camera feed and people became intensely interested
in its survival. It ended up doing fine and is
still standing after the typhoon. 

As a child, there was an immense sugar maple on our property. It had five main branches, each about the size of a mature old maple, sprouting from the most wide tree trunk I've ever seen. 

 My dad built a tree house in it for me. I'd spend hours up there, decompressing from the effects of a high strung mom. And inventing in my head adventure movies starring Yours Truly. 

My sister Lynn and I spent countless hours under that tree. In the fall, we'd jump off the swing into an immense pile of leaves from that maple. 

I still cherish the memory, I wept when it was cut down by the power company because they didn't like how close it was to their wires.

As an adult, I have three immense poplar trees in my St. Albans, Vermont back yard. I call them the triplets. Like all close friends, they can be a pain in the butt, like when wind storms prune some dead twigs from it, or it extends annoying roots into my summertime raised beds.

But the triplets are an ingrained part of my life. I can hear them outside now, a gusty wind whooshing through the thousands of leaves up there. 

All this is to say that humans love trees. Most of us, anyway. 

Which leads us to Kyushu, Japan. It's the nation's most southwestern-most main island, which was just hit by Typhoon Shanshan. 

It was a nasty storm, as typhoons usually are, causing devastating winds, floods and storm surges.  

As the Washington Post reports, thousands of people were drawn to a YouTube live stream showing the coast of Kyushu, in the throes of Typhoon Shanshan. In the video's foreground was a palm tree, whipping back and forth violently, always seemingly on the verge of snapping under the force of the hurricane winds. 

But the tree never succumbed. The typhoon's forward motion was slow, meaning the island - and the tree - were subject to horrendous winds for a longer period of time than people experience in most typhoons or hurricanes.

(Typhoons are what hurricanes are called in the western Pacific Ocean).

As WaPo reports, the tree's performance won worldwide fans. "The dramatic display of resilience won the hearts of thousands online, many of whom flooded the comments to root for the tree. - known affectionately as "Yasshi" - to survive."

The spoiler here is the tree indeed survived. The typhoon moved on and the live stream after the storm showed the tree with its fronds battered by the wind, but standing tall. 

There's something about trees, especially ones under duress, that we all root for. When I watch all those severe storm and tornadoes on YouTube (I'm a hopeless weather geek after all). I always root for the storm tossed trees to somehow survive.

When iconic trees die, or are killed, or are endangered, we all collective mourn. Some examples:

Hawaii Banyan

An enormous 150-year-old banyan tree in Lahaina, Maui, Hawaii was badly burned during last August's   catastrophic wildfire that destroyed most of the tourist city.  People seemed almost more upset by the potential loss of the tree than the deaths and destruction in Lahaina.

People have been tracking the fate of the banyan tree ever since.  As the Associated Press reports, the sprawling tree survived and is coming back to life, gradually turning from ash gray and black scar he'd to green and growing back.  All thanks to intense efforts by arborists and volunteers. 

Half the tree's branches died in the fire. But arborists carefully removed those branches so the tree would redirect its energy toward the branches that might survive. Heavy irrigation and care has resulted in new green leaves and branches sprouting. The tree will survive.

British Vandalism Victim

International outrage erupted when some complete morons in 2023 cut down the Sycamore Gap tree in Britain. It was one of the most photographed places in the world. The tree sat between and at the base of two steep slopes. 

Two people were arrested, a 16 year old and man in his 60s. But they were subsequently freed. Two men in their 30s were then charged. They face fines equivalent to the estimated worth of the tree, which was about $785,000. No motive has been provided. 

Eight tiny shoots have since emerged from the stump of the tree, suggesting it might regenerate itself in some form. 

Washington DC's Stumpy 

The Tidal Basin in Washington DC is famed for its annual spring cherry blossoms. About 3,700 cherry trees put on a spectacular display every spring, usually in mid to late March. 

Climate change has made the Tidal Basin even more tidal. Sea level rise has caused more flooding, which affected some of the cherry trees.  The salt water damages the roots, and the trees get sick and eventually die. Earlier this year, the National Park Service cut down about 160 cherry trees due to rising tides and damage.

One of those trees was Stumpy. 

Stumpy, as a certain tree was dubbed, became something of a national treasure.  The salt damage made it gnarled, stunted and misshapen. Think the Charlie Brown Christmas tree, except worse. 

Stumpy's persistence and unique look won it tons of fans.  It was chopped down this year along with the 160 others. But right before that happened, Stumpy put on a blossom show that was its best in years. 

That tree wanted to go out with a bang.  God bless it. 

Meanwhile, in Japan, Typhoon Shanshan is long gone. Yasshi can recover in the tropical sun until the next typhoon comes along. 

Video: Yasshi the palm tree survives a typhoon. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

 

Dora The Explorer: Recent Hurricane Had Incredible Journey

A recent hurricane was dubbed
"Dora The Explorer" for its
long trek through two
oceans. 

Hurricane Dora popped up in the news in a tragic way.

It, and a high pressure system far to its north, helped created the strong winds on Maui that led to those those horrible wildfires. The death toll is now a horrible 106 people, and could easily rise further. 

Far less importantly, but pretty interesting nonetheless is the incredibly long journey Dora and its earlier ingredients as a tropical disturbance took.  The storm had such a long journey that it was inevitable dubbed Dora the Explorer.   

Hurricane experts first noticed what would become Dora on July 17, just off the west coast of Africa.  It moved westward across the Atlantic, briefly almost becoming a tropical storm or at least tropical depression on July 22 before reaching the Central American coast around July 28.  

Upper level winds over the Atlantic Ocean prevented wannabe Dora from becoming a tropical storm. And, being over the Atlantic, had it become a tropical storm, it would have been named Emily.

Anyway, wannabe Dora crossed over the mountains of Central America and landed over the Pacific Ocean on July 29.  Conditions were far more conducive for development over the Pacific, so by August 1, Dora became a hurricane and began its long trek westward across the Pacific Ocean. 

Dora was a beast over the open Pacific Ocean, lasting at least four days as a Category 4 hurricane with winds up to 150 mph near its eye. 

Last Friday, Dora became only the second hurricane on record to survive a trip across the eastern, central and now western Pacific basin, as the Washington Post noted. 

The only other hurricane known to accomplish this feat was Hurricane John in 1994.  Most hurricanes sputter out in the central Pacific Ocean because the water is cooler there, the air is often drier, and wind shear that's common in that area usually tears hurricanes apart. 

One possible reason why Dora was so persistent was its construction.  Most hurricanes look like spirals.  Dora was known as an annular hurricane. That means on satellite photos it looked more like a doughnut than a spiral.

Annular hurricanes like Dora can fend off dry air intrusions and upper level winds that would otherwise rip a hurricane apart. 

On Friday, Dora crossed the International Date Line at 180 degrees longitude. That put it in the western Pacific basin. Since it was now on the Asian side of the Pacific, it forced a rename: It was now Typhoon Dora, not Hurricane Dora. 

Last we checked, Typhoon Dora was finally weakening into a tropical storm somewhere in the western Pacific Ocean. 

Yeah, It's Winter, But Climatologists Still Obsessed With '21 NW Heat Wave. Alaska Storm, Too

Map depicting the upper level flow in late June, 2021]
depicts the heat dome over the Pacific Northwest and
southwestern Canada that led to extreme, record
shattering heat. Scientists are still studying the
heat wave and its relation to climate change. 

 Since there's such a terrible cold wave smacking much of the nation, let's talk about heat waves.

Or at least one specific heat wave.  

Climatologists are still obsessed with the historic, extreme heat wave that afflicted the Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada in 2021.

Record-breaking heat waves have become much more common in this era of climate change. 

But this particular heat wave really stands out.  During the relatively rare hot spells in which monthly and all time records, the old marks are almost always broken by only a degree or two.

In that heat wave, temperatures soared to as high as 121 degrees in Lytton, British Columbia, Canada, easily establishing a new all time record high for the entire vast nation. The day after that record was set, most of the town of Lytton burned down in a wildfire.

Before this heat wave the all-time hottest day on record in Portland, Oregon was 107.  In this heat wave, it reached 116 degrees, so that's an incredible nine degrees above the previous record.

Also, before 2021, Seattle had only experienced 100 degree temperatures on three occasions. Then, in this heat wave, it was above 100 on three consecutive days, including the all-time record high of 107.

The heat wave killed hundreds of people in Oregon, Washington and British Columbia.

Given how utterly jaw-dropping this heat wave was, you can see why climatologists have been studying and picking apart this heat wave ever since. 

According to Axios:

"In the most comprehensive analysis to date of what made the heat wave so extreme, scientists ruled out the possibility that this was a 'black swan' event, which is unpredictable and unlikely to recur.

Instead, the new study in Nature Climate Change shows that amplifying feedbacks between factors such as unusually dry soils and a highly contorted jet stream added to the effects of a long-term climate change.

The wavy jet stream pattern, itself tied to climate change, helped give rise to a record-strong heat dome that parked itself over the British Columbia and the Northwest U.S. in early summer."

If we were back in the 1950s, a heat wave like this would have been considered absolutely impossible in the Pacific Northwest. 

As Axios reports, because of climate change and its feedback loops, the chances of another heat wave like this is now considered a one in every 200 year event. And if the climate warms by a total of 2 degrees Celsius, then the heat wave would be considered a one in every ten year event. 

Other scientists say the heat wave was in large part bad luck. Weather systems and trends got together in precisely the right way to unleash a horrible heat wave. But climate change boosted the temperatures even further than they otherwise would have gotten.

The 2021 Northwest heat wave wasn't a one-off. Other weird, unexpected things keep cropping up that seem to have been giving a boost by climate change. 

Up in Alaska, meanwhile, former Typhoon Merbok slammed into the state's west coast in September, bringing record high storm surges and immense coastal flooding.

The storm hit before the seas along Alaska's west coast began to freeze.  The ice would have offered some protection. The ground hadn't yet frozen, either, so it could erode more easily.

To make matters worse, as Yale Climate Connections reports, the ocean waters in the Pacific were warmer than average, very likely due to climate change. This allowed the typhoon to exist closer to Alaska than it otherwise would have And it allowed the storm to maintain much of its strength even after it transitioned to a powerful non-tropical storm. 

This is similar situation that Atlantic Canada faced with Hurricane Fiona this year. Unusually warm water off the eastern Canadian coast allowed Fiona to keep more of its strength than it otherwise would have by the time it made landfall.  

The examples in this post as to how climate change can affect weather events in surprising ways ought to worry all of us. What fresh hell that's beyond our imagination will climate change on us here in Vermont?  Maybe nothing, maybe something mildly weird, maybe something catastrophic.

It's enough to make one nervous, though. 

Wet Vermont, The Hurricanes Continue, Including A Nasty Philippines Surprise

Sunflowers do their best to brighten a fading autumn
garden on a damp Monday morning in St. Albans, Vermont.

Good Monday to all!

Given the weather pattern, we'll stick with the format we had yesterday, to update a somewhat soggy Vermont, since it's our home state, then move on to hurricanes. 

Spoiler: Vermont's weather will continue to be much, much tamer than in all those hurricane zones. 

But you knew that already.   So on to the damp details.  

Rain moved in a little ahead of schedule in Vermont Sunday afternoon. That's OK. Even though it's been quite wet this month,  rain is still needed. Ground water in much of the state has not fully recovered from a dry summer. 

Yesterday's rains brought the month's precipitation total in Burlington to 6.14 inches. We're now at the 8th wettest September on record. We might move a little higher in the rankings this week, as some more rain is due. Nothing extreme, but precipitation chances are pretty high early this week. 

Unfortunately, once again, the northwest corner of Vermont is generally expected the most rain, with more than a half inch through Wednesday. This part of the state doesn't really need the rain that much. Meanwhile, the southeastern part of Vermont, which really does need more wetting is expected to get the least -barely a quarter inch, if that. 

We have a little break in the action this morning, with nothing more than scattered, light showers. And the sun might even break through the clouds in some spots at times, imagine that!

But another round of showers comes through this afternoon.  We might even have enough instability in the air to trigger a few thunderstorms in the mix.   

A pocket of chilly air will hover thousands of feet above us, which will contribute to instability. Any sun this morning might add a little more. So, there'a chance that a couple storms might contain some strong gusty winds and small hail. 

Most of us will escape that, but NOAA's Storm Prediction Center does have most of Vermont in a marginal risk zone for severe storms. 

Tomorrow will only bring a chance of scattered showers. They'll be more numerous on Wednesday, but again, nothing too heavy. Another spoiler:  No guarantees yet, but chances are increasing that the remnants of Hurricane Ian, after it moves ashore later this week, will get shunted out to sea to our south, so at this point the storm won't affect Vermont much, if at all. 

So let's talk about Ian, as it's the big news of the day

HURRICANE IAN

Hurricane Ian south of Cuba this morning, with
its expected target Florida further north. 

It was fascinating, if a little horrifying to watch Ian on satellite images on Sunday. In the morning, it was weak, but it had taken on that "look."  The storm had become symmetrical, and it took on the look of a hurricane, even though the storms swirling around the center seemed weak.

At first, anyway. Ian is now undergoing a rapid intensification. It was up to 75 mph this morning, a Category 1 storm. By the time Ian reaches western Cuba early Tuesday morning, it's expected to be a 130 mph powerhouse. 

Computer models remain stubbornly divided on the path of Ian after Cuba.  Florida is under the gun, but will it be an area on the west coast of the state near or a little north of Tampa? Or will it hit the panhandle, up by Pensacola or Panama City?

By the time Ian gets up to a spot off or near the west coast of Florida, forecasters think it might start to weaken. Strong winds aloft and dry air from the northwest would gradually take the power away from the storm. 

Of course, if the weakening trend begins just as Ian is making landfall say, a little north of Tampa, it won't matter all that much, as it will still be a major hurricane. 

If Ian takes a course toward the Florida panhandle, it will have a greater shot at weakening noticeably before landfall, but that doesn't mean anyone is out of the woods.  

Often, when a hurricane starts to weaken offshore before hitting land, the oceans beneath the storm doesn't immediately get the memo.

The big storm surge that was building when the hurricane was at peak intensity keeps going as the storm itself begins to fade. The most famous example of this might be Hurricane Katrina in 2005.  It was a monster category 5 storm in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, but weakened to Category 3 at landfall. 

However, the storm surge was still Category 5 even after Katrina began to diminish, and New Orleans ended up drowning.  

I'm not saying Hurricane Ian will be another Katrina, but Florida better keep an eye on storm surges in particular. That's especially true if the storm comes close to Tampa Bay. 

No matter which of the two paths Ian takes, it's trajectory would shove water up into Tampa Bay, so I'd expect at least some storm surge flooding there later this week. Remember, storm surges are the most dangerous hazard from a hurricane.  Just ask the people up in Atlantic Canada, who dealt with Fiona's surge over the weekend. 

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean, it's gotten a bit quiet again, which is a good thing. Tropical storms Gaston and Hermine have dissipated. 

There's a disturbance roughly halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles that has a strong chance at developing into a tropical depression soon. So far,  it's not any kind of immediate threat. 

TYPHOON NORU

In the Philippines, a typhoon this weekend created a nasty, dangerous surprise. 

Typhoon Noru slammed a large, heavily populated section of the nation Sunday. 

Here's how Jeff Masters and Bob Henson put it, writing in Yale Climate Connections:

"Typhoon Noru put on a spectacular, unexpected and extremely dangerous rapid intensification feat in the waters just east of the Philippines on Saturday,becoming one of the fastest-intensifying cyclones in modern Earth history. Noru's peak 1-minute wind strength, as gauged by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center increased from 50 mph tropical storm strength) at 2 p.m. EDT Friday to 155 mph (top end of the category 4 range) at 2 p.m. EDT Saturday."

Noru ended up making landfall in the Philippines with top wind speeds that had decreased just slightly to 130 mph. 

That storm has already killed at least five people. The five were rescuers trying to retrieve people from floodwaters when a wall collapsed on them. 

Noru also forced tens of thousands of people to evacuate and created widespread flooding. In the capitol, Manila, classes and government agencies closed as the storm lashed the vast city with heavy rain and wind. 

VIDEO

If you'd like an idea of the kind of destruction a hurricane storm surge can cause, watch this incredibly sad news report from Port aux Basques, Newfoundland, Canada. Click on this link if you don't see the image, below. Otherwise click on image to watch on YouTube

Hurricanes, Typhoons, Big Storms And Downpours, Oh My!

Radar image shows the eye of Hurricane Fiona and 
torrential rains spreading into Puerto Rico.

 Big storms are in the news today, with a soon to be hurricane near Puerto Rico, a powerful typhoon in Japan, an even bigger storm that used to be a typhoon in Alaska, and an upcoming soaking here in Vermont. 

We'll take 'em one at a time, with Vermont up last. I always save the best for last.

FIONA

What was Tropical Storm Fiona had struggled with strong upper level winds that prevented it from developing into a proper hurricane. Wouldn't you know right before Fiona gets to hapless Puerto Rico, it gets its act together. 

Puerto Rico is still trying to recover from 2017's devastating Hurricane Maria and a series of strong earthquakes since 2019 along the south coast of the island. 

As of late this morning, Fiona's top winds had increased to 80 mph, so it is now a full-fledged hurricane. The hurricane should come ashore in Puerto Rico later today. 

Winds will be destructive, and Puerto Rico's rickety power grid has already partially failed in the storm. However, the main problem with Fiona will be the rains. Most of Puerto Rico should receive five to 10 inches of rain with a few spots closing in on 20 inches. 

This will naturally cause big time flash floods and mudslides in the U.S. territory.  Fiona will move on to clip the Dominican Republic with more flash floods and land slides tonight and tomorrow. 

From there, Fiona is forecast to strengthen further east of the Bahamas. For those of you who hate the idea of a powerful hurricane hitting the U.S. East Coast, some good news: A strong cold front that will bring frost to northern New England late this week will also nudge Fiona to the north and east, keeping it over open water far off the coast. 

JAPAN TYPHOON

Satellite view of Typhoon Nanmadol on
approach to Japan.

Japan is often affected by typhoons, but one expected to strike today might be the nation's worst in decades.  

Super Typhoon Nanmadol is set to strike the southernmost of Japan's main islands with wind gusts exceeding 150 mph and 20 or more inches of rain. The winds are expected to be enough to collapse some houses. Meteorologists fear the flooding will be catastrophic.

The typhoon is also forecast to move over the megalopolis of Tokyo. Though winds will have diminished a little by the time Nanmadol reaches Tokyo, it still would be destructive. 

Japan has ordered large scale evacuations from coastal areas ahead of an expected destructive storm surge. At least four million people had been evacuated as the storm was making landfall this morning. 

Japan is well prepared for typhoons, but you can only do so much when a storm is this powerful. 

ALASKA STORM

Screen grab from a web cam of Nome, Alaska Saturday
shows an angry Pacific Ocean with waves 
crashing into the town. 

Typhoon Merbok sideswiped China a week ago. When typhoons and hurricanes head north, the often turn into powerful non-tropical storms. Merbok is an extreme example of that. 

Former typhoon Merbok has caused some of the worst storm damage western Alaska has ever seen. The storm's size is immense - at least the size of the entire state.  

Villages along much of Alaska's west coast have already been experiencing episodes of flooding and severe coastal erosion due to sea level rise and more powerful storms induced by climate change. 

This storm is worsening things exponentially. Photos on social media depict entire villages under water, with some houses and buildings swept away. A web cam from Nome shows enormous Pacific Ocean waves, some of which were crashing into oceanfront streets.  Many villages along more than a 400 miles stretch of Alaska's west coast received extensive damage. 

VERMONT SOAKING

National Weather Service office in South Burlington has
released this rainfall forecast map through Monday,
showing more than two inches of rain in norther
Vermont. Lines depict their prediction of rain
onset today.

Less than a week after a slow moving storm dumped up to four inches of rain on some Vermont communities, another super soaker is in the offing today and especially on Monday. 

It's not a hurricane. Or a typhoon. Or a mega storm. Instead, the culprit is a stalling front near the International border, lots of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and disturbances riding along the front could easily dump three or more inches of rain at least a few towns.  

Vermont somehow escaped flash flooding from last Tuesday's episode of heavy rain. This time, if any strings of downpours repeatedly hit a particular spot in the Green Mountain State, we might not be so lucky. 

Before we get ahead ourselves, for most of us, the heavy rain will be good news. Despite recent rains, we could still use more rain to erase the dry conditions that built up all summer. Of course, southern Vermont is most in need of rain, but this next episode is mostly going to drench northern Vermont.

The first round of rain was coming at us from the north and west late this morning and it will be rainy Sunday afternoon and evening. Some of the rain could come down pretty hard in northern areas, but it won't be anything extreme. Don't worry about any local flooding or washouts today. 

By late tonight, northern areas should have received a half inch to an inch of rain. Southern Vermont should only get a quarter inch or so.

Consider today a pre-soak. 

Monday, the rain should come down harder, especially in the afternoon.  We might see some embedded thunderstorms as well. One or two of those storms could be on the strong side, so most of Vermont is under a marginal risk (level one of five) of severe storms. 

The main issue will be the rains. The air will be plenty humid. The nearly stalled front with disturbances riding along it will really be efficient at dropping a good amount of rain. 

Between now and late Monday night, most of northern Vermont should have received more than two inches of rain. That amount would be beneficial, and not create any real flooding concerns.

The problem is, much like last Tuesday, certain areas could really over-perform and receive three or even four inches of rain. It would be a rather small area, and we don't know exactly where. Since the ground is wetter than it was a week ago, it will be a little easier for washouts and some local flooding to creep in. 

Not a guarantee, but a possibility. If we do see any flooding, it wouldn't be an Irene-style calamity, but still something to watch out for. We'll have more details on this Monday morning.