Saturday Evening Vermont Storm Update: As You'd Expect, Some Forecast Changes

The latest snow forecast from the National Weather 
Service office in South Burlington, issued Saturday afternoon.
Still looking at a solid thump of mostly wet snow in
northern and central Vermont. 

 We have some changes to the forecast with this long-advertised storm that's expected to hit Vermont starting tomorrow and worsening Monday. 

The track of the storm on computer forecasting models keeps nudging east a little bit. That means in general less rain and more wet snow for the Green Mountain State. 

The flood watch that had been in effect for central and northern Vermont has been dropped. Rain will probably change to snow sooner than previous forecasts, limiting the amount of rain and thawing. 

The rain Sunday and the first half of Sunday night will cause sharp rises along rivers in the northern half of Vermont, but the water won't get as high as previously thought, so any significant flooding is now not really on the table. 

The flood watch continues for roughly the southeastern half of Vermont, as enough rain seems likely to cause a flood risk.

The story with this upcoming storm over the past couple of days has been gradually shifting from a warm floody (new word invented by me) to more of a winter storm. 

So, with that in mind, the National Weather Service in South Burlington this afternoon upgraded the wine storm watch to a winter storm warning for all but southern and southeastern Vermont. 

The winter storm warning is in effect for later Sunday night through early Monday evening. Most places in the warning area should expect four to ten inches of snow, but some spots in the central and northern Green Mountains could get as much as a foot and a half of snow. 

The snow is still expected to be wet and heavy, but there's a twist to this. The two previous storms on November 27 and December 4 cut power to mostly mid and high elevations of Vermont. The Champlain Valley pretty much escaped the power outage trouble in those instances. 

It's not looking like that will be the case this time. Power outages are a risk pretty much everywhere in Vermont with this one. But, as the National Weather Service office in South Burlington pointed out this afternoon, the wettest snow seems likely in the Champlain Valley. You know, that dreadful slush that's the consistency of wet cement? Yeah, that's what that part of Vermont seems in for. 

Little bit of a calm before the storm. A red sunset late
Saturday afternoon as seen from St. Albans, Vermont. 

The Champlain Valley is the most densely populated region of Vermont. So particularly wet snow hitting that neck of the woods would bring lots of power failures. 

The snow will probably be not quite as wet and cement-like in mid and high elevations, so the collapses trees and snapped power lines might not be quite as big a problem up in those areas. 

It's not like higher spots are getting off scot-free. It's just that lower elevations might be the target zone.

The Champlain Valley is also probably the hardest to forecast with this storm, too. The NWS South Burlington forecast discussion explains it pretty well:

"Snowfall near the warmer Lake Champlain waters will be a slushy couple of inches, while the BTV (Burlington) airport 4 to 8 inches is likely, to 6 to 10 inches in Williston/Essex to 10 to 16 inches Underhill/Bolton base."

 The Monday morning commute still looks like it will be a disaster. That's especially true in the Champlain Valley, at least if the current forecast is accurate.  As I said this morning, if you can work from home Monday, do that. Schools will probably be closed for the day, so you probably won't have to ferry your kids through the mess on the roads. 

I've outlined what current forecasts have in store for us. But you gotta remember, there's still plenty of room for forecast changes between now and when this stupid thing actually hits. So, you'll need to be on your toes and be ready for changes to all these predictions. This thing could still be not as bad as forecast, or worse than forecast. 

That's the cross we bear as Vermonters in the winter. The weather sucks, and surprises us. So we have to be ready for surprises.

By the way, this big storm isn't just a Vermont problem. Today, the storm produced tornadoes near the Tennessee/Kentucky border northwest of Nashville, causing some serious damage. Flood watches remain in effect along the East Coast from northeastern Virginia all the way to northern Maine. 

On the bright side, for most of the nation, including Vermont, the weather should be much quieter for awhile after this storm passes. 

1 PM Thursday Update: Severe Storm Threat Grows In Vermont/New York, Watch Issued

Northern and central New York and extreme western
Vermont have been upgraded to "enhanced" risk
of severe storms today. That means numerous
severe storms are likely. Slight risk means
scattered instances of severe weather. 

A severe thunderstorm watch is now in effect for all of Vermont and all of New York except for the extreme west out by Buffalo.   

Moreover, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has increased the alert level for severe thunderstorms from "slight" to "enhanced."  The rest of Vermont is still listed under "slight" risk.

Enhanced risk is level three on a five point scale of thunderstorm risk. It's the first enhanced level we've seen in Vermont this year.  Slight risk means there will likely be scattered instances of severe storms, defined as having winds of greater than 58 mph and/or hail one inch in diameter or bigger.

An enhanced risk means there should be numerous severe thunderstorms. Western Vermont in particular ought to keep an eye on the skies and pay attention to warnings. 

There continues to be a very small, but not zero risk of a tornado in the Champlain Valley or elsewhere in western Vermont. But the main threat is strong straight line winds.

Even though the risk of a tornado is low, it will feel like tornado weather out ahead of the storms in the Champlain Valley this afternoon. South winds will be gusty, possibly reaching as high as 35 mph.  Avoid boating on Lake Champlain today.

Amid the winds, it will continue to get increasingly hot and humid ahead of the storms. 

A severe thunderstorm watch, which we are now under, just means conditions are favorable for bad storms. If you see a severe thunderstorm warning for your area, that means a bad storm is about to hit.

If/when you get a severe thunderstorm warning today, go into a sturdy building and try to stay away from windows. This risk is somewhat higher than the usual hit and miss stuff we get.

As of 1 p.m., the developing line of severe storms was approaching Syracuse and Watertown, New York and was making steady progress east while strengthening. 

FLOODING

Of course, with all this going on, the flooding risk remains. The thinking from this morning so far hasn't changed much. The storms late this afternoon and evening will have the potential to cause renewed flash flooding anywhere in Vermont.

The greatest risk, though is in the southern half of the state. That risk will last well into the night. 

Bottom line: Vermont is about suffer more storm damage, which we surely don't need. The damage we will incur today and tonight will be much, much less than what we went through Monday and Tuesday. 

But every little bit hurts all the more. Stay safe and stay Vermont Strong.