Climate Change Is Decreasing Chances Of White Christmas In Most Of U.S.

Snow falls from trees on a white Christmas, December 25,
2017 in West Rutland, Vermont. White Christmases are
getting less likely in most of the nation due
to climate change. 

The mid-sized snowstorm that swept through Vermont last weekend really upped the chances that Christmas 2021 - coming up Saturday, is going to be a white one.

This despite a forecast of mixed precipitation. 

A white Christmas would be a marked contrast to last year, when record high temperatures in the 60s put an end to the idea of a white Christmas. (At one point on Christmas morning last year, Burlington, Vermont was bizarrely the hottest spot in the Lower 48).

This year, it looks like Vermont might be the exception to the rule for a white Christmas in the nation. It's been a very warm month pretty much coast to coast this month Much if not most of the U.S. should have unseasonably warm weather through Christmas Day. Parts of the South and Southeast will likely have record high temperatures.

That will put the kibosh on any Christmas snowball fights in much of the nation. 

The lack of a white Christmas this year for a larger swath of the United States than usual is part of a longterm trend, very, very likely brought on by climate change. 

The Washington Post recently did a white Christmas review of 25 major cities, comparing climate averages from 1981 to 2010 with data from 1991 through 2020.

Here's how they summarized these results: 

"Eight of the 25 cities saw their chance of a white Christmas decrease. Denver and Columbus saw the largest drops (six percentage points) D.C's odds of a white Christmas plummeted from eight percent to just a little over four percent. 

Four cities' chances were unchanged (Minneapolis, Indianapolis and Dallas)

Three saw their chances increase, but only by one or two percentage points (New York, Philadelphia and Raleigh)."

The Washington Post cites the Associated Press in more not-so-white Christmas data:

"The Associated Press, using an analysis from the University of Arizona, also described a marked falloff in Christmas snow between the 1980s and 2010s. In the 1980s, 47 percent of the country had snow on the ground on December 25, with an average depth of 3.5 inches. But, by the 2010s, the snow cover extend was just 38 percent, with an average depth of 2.7 inches."

For the record, it looks like less than 38 percent of the nation will be snow covered this Christmas.  

Back here in Vermont, we're getting a white Christmas this year, and chances in general remain good that we'll have many white Christmases in the future.

But it's not as set in stone as it once was. The chances of white Christmases in Vermont is declining with climate change.  Last year, some of my daffodils around my home in northwestern Vermont were starting to come up in the record warmth.  That probably won't be the last time I see something weird like that.