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| Forecast of what weather radar might look like at 7 p.m. today in Minnesota. It shows a band on intense thunderstorms, with some possible embedded tornadoes. An unprecedented storm is forecast to hit the middle of the nation today. |
I have been a hopeless weather geek for almost five decades and I've never seen a storm with this combination of danger and bizarreness.
It will produce a vast expanse of damaging winds through most of the nation's middle and southwest. A significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms and some tornadoes is set to hit parts of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin, a northern area that's never seen anything like that this time of year.
Record high temperatures will shatter records - reaching the 70s as far north as Iowa. Uncontrollable wildfires will likely race across some areas of the central and southern Plains.
Those same areas will also be engulfed in dust storms. Gusts blasting down the Front Range of the Rockies could bring winds of 100 mph to places like Boulder, Colorado.
Here in Vermont, the storm will have light impacts, thank goodness. Details on that toward the bottom of this post.
True, today's powerful storm likely won't be the most expensive or the most deadly weather disaster this nation has ever faced, but it will be one of the most wide-ranging, multifaceted and frankly strange and disturbing weather issue we've faced. I've called some odd events as "weather off the rails" before, but this one blows those rails away.
If you want an example of how stunned seasoned meteorologists are with this storm, check out this morning's forecast discussion from the National Weather Service office in Minneapolis:
"The storm system impacting the region today and tonight is one meteorologists will remember throughout their career. The highly dynamic and very unusual storm system will bring almost every weather type we experience here within the next 24 hours."
While everyone affected by this storm needs to pay attention to warnings and hazards, the area that will be affected by severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes really needs to watch out.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put the parts of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin under a moderate risk zone for severe storms, which is actually a pretty high alert level. (Kentucky was under a moderate risk ahead of the deadly tornadoes there last Friday).
In modern records, there's only ever been one severe thunderstorm warning and never a tornado warning in Minnesota during December. That will likely change today.
The severe thunderstorms will be unique and scary and impossible to keep up with, really. Forward motion of the storms is forecast to be 70 to 80 mph, which is insane.
Winds aloft will be screaming at unprecedented levels, so those storms will bring those winds aloft to the surface. Wind gusts with the storms will exceed 80 mph in spots. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 100 mph report or two out of Iowa or Minnesota. Also tornadoes are likely to spin up along this line.
This situation seems as dangerous as the famous derecho of August 10, 2020 which devastated Iowa.
On top of that, dangerous wind gusts of up to 70 mph are possible before and especially after the storms in Iowa and Minnesota.
Further south, severe thunderstorms won't be a major problem but the wind will.
Let's just take the alerts and warnings from the National Weather Service office in Goodland, Kansas as an example.
It's bad enough that the fire danger is off the charts in the parched Kansas landscape with the winds so strong and the humidity so low. That's enough to make any fire uncontrollable.
To make things even worse, the strong winds gusting in some areas to 75 mph, will abruptly shift. South winds will suddenly change to southwest or west winds in the few hours either side of noon, then go into the northwest late in the afternoon.
Anyone driving through the middle of the nations can expect bad visibility in blowing dust, and I imagine a lot of tractor trailers will tip over in the wind.
Hints of what's to come were already evident in New Mexico and Colorado this morning. A line of snow squalls packing lightning and wind gusts of 75 mph were moving through parts of those states early today.
Overall, the storm could prove to be among the strongest, as measured by low barometric pressure in the northern Plains and Great Lakes
This has the potential to be the nation's second billion dollar disaster in a week. For the most part, the damage from today's storm won't be nearly as concentrated and extreme as what we saw in Kansas.
But the high winds, fires, snow, tornadoes, severe thunderstorms and such will cover such an enormous area that the damage totals will pile up.
I hate to blame climate change for everything, but the record heat pumping into the storm from the south, probably boosted by climate change, will add energy to the storm that wouldn't be there if global temperatures were a little cooler. I suspect climate change might be making what would have been a bad storm that much worse.
VERMONT IMPACTS
The center of the storm is forecast to move northeastward through Minnesota this evening, and will cross into Canada and be way up by southern Hudson Bay by tomorrow afternoon.
It's going by so far to the west of Vermont that we won't really suffer any dire consequences from the system.
Tonight, the storm's warm front will be approaching then going through. A supply of cold air overhead and to our north will start us off with a nasty mix of snow, rain and ice overnight. It won't come down all that hard, but icy roads will be an issue overnight, especially east of the Green Mountains.
A squirt of near record warm air will flood in tomorrow, bringing our temperatures well into the 50s to perhaps near 60. We'll have gusty south winds, but they won't be strong enough to really cause any damage.
The storm's long cold front will come through Thursday night and carry a packet of more gusty winds. Some gusts could reach 45 mph in spots, and there might be isolated power outages from a couple tree branches breaking in the wind.
After that, winter returns and stays here for the foreseeable future. It's December, after all. Light snow from a separate system Saturday and Saturday night might lay down a few inches of snow.
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