Pattern Change To Unleash More Severe Weather In South ; Vermont To Stay (Mostly) Even Keeled

It looked stormy, but really wasn't amid balmy conditions
Tuesday in Bethany Beach, Delaware.  A change in 
the weather pattern will rout the springlike conditions
from most of the U.S over the New Year's weekend.
This could trigger severe weather in the South.

 The summer in winter that has engulfed the southeastern third of the nation for over a week now will finally come to an end as we ring in the new year, but not before yet another severe weather outbreak or two threatens the South.  

For those in my home base in Vermont, the upcoming pattern change is set to be much less dramatic, as we're not that off the rails to begin with.  

We'll go from weather that's a little warmer than normal to conditions that are a little cooler than normal. But nothing we haven't seen before. More on that further down in this post. 

Record highs condition to fall across the South, and will continue to do so through New Year's Eve. (On the edge of the southern heat, it was a very balmy 60 degrees or so at my temporary perch in Bethany Beach, Delaware).

The northwestern United States will remain cold for the next several days.

The change is coming as the big dip in the jet stream responsible for the cold and winter storms in the West shifts east, pushes east across the United States through New Year's Day.  That will put winter back into the picture coast to coast, though of course it won't be so bad in the South.

Severe storms, including tornadoes, seem likely in the 
south today, especially in areas shaded in yellow 
and orange. 

What will be bad in the South is what will occur during the change.  Incredible warmth and humidity for this time of year  has pooled in the Southeast.  When the cold air arrives to rout the summer air, severe storms and tornadoes are a good bet.

An initial disturbance - sort of a sentinel of the impending weather pattern change - will cross the middle of the nation today.  Swaths of the South, especially northern Alabama and Mississippi and southern Tennessee, are under the gun later today for severe storms and probably a few tornadoes.

That will cap off a December with a record number of tornadoes.  

Once the main push of cold air starts to make its move, another outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes seems a good bet in the Southeast New Year's Eve and New Year's Day.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Vermont will continue to muddle through mostly cloudy weather and temperatures on the warm side for this time of year. Nothing anywhere near record breaking, but still on the mild side.

As the National Weather Service office in South Burlington notes, the pattern change will carry a storm system that will probably pass over or very near Vermont over the weekend.

Depending upon whether it goes a little north or a little south, we will either see mostly mixed precipitation or mostly rain, unfortunately. Forecasters will need to get a better handle on the storm's expected path in the next couple of days before we can get a more solid forecast.

What's clear is true winter air will rush in starting Sunday and continuing into the first half of the first week of the New Year.  This won't be extreme by any stretch of the imagination, but I can see some areas staying in the teens for highs early next week, with some below zero temperatures popping up at night.