 |
| NOAA is REALLY bullish on warmer than normal weather in the eastern United States, including here in Vermont, through around the winter solstice |
The Northern Hemisphere finds itself in an interesting winter weather pattern, one that is affecting, and will affect Vermont for weeks. But that doesn't exactly mean the weather will stay the same for weeks.
There's a fast, generally west to east jet stream positioned further north than normal for this time of year, which is trapping intensely cold air in extreme northern latitudes.
The famous polar vortex, that pool of intense frigid air that's normally wandering somewhere in the Great White North, is locked up near the North Pole. At least for now.
This pattern, is keeping large swaths of the Mid-Latitudes in unusual winter warmth. That's especially true in the continental United States, and that state of affairs looks like it will continue, probably at least through the Winter Solstice.
I've already noted the record high temperatures that have enveloped much of the nation so far this month. Earlier forecasts that this December heat would spread east seem to be coming true. The eastern half of the United States, including here in Vermont, looks to have off and on remarkably balmy weather until at least just before Christmas.
And yes, I know it's kind of snowy and rather chilly in Vermont today, but that will disappear by the end of the week.
It's impossible to say at this point how warm it will get here, but who knows? We could conceivably see temperatures here in Vermont flirting with record highs on a few days between now and Christmas. Yeah, it will be relatively chilly today and tomorrow, but it won't be anything unusual for this time of year,.
Then, we, and most of the nation east of the Mississippi, will enter the torch zone.
Meanwhile, it's brutal up in the December darkness in the far north. Up in the northern tip of Sweden, it got down to minus 47 F, the coldest reading in that nation in 35 years.
Large parts of Alaska had one of their five coldest Novembers on record due to this very persistent weather pattern. December so far has also been frigid in Alaska. Swaths of Siberia are also very cold currently, even by their frigid standards.
The cold way up north is not unprecedented, but it is oddly long lasting. Something usually dislodges the cold air up there temporarily, sending frigid winds into places like the United States, or central Europe, or deep into China and toward Japan.
There's been precious little of those cold snaps this year, and in the immediate future, things are going to stay more or less status quo.
It's actually been several years since NOAA in their two week forecasts have been this confident of such warm weather in the eastern United States this time of year.
This warm spell will conclude yet another year that is turning out to be quite a bit toastier than average.
Even so, the frigid air locked into the Arctic is like the Sword of Damocles hanging over us. In the constant December nights up near the North Pole, the air just keeps getting colder and colder, and more and more dense. It's just dying to ooze south toward.....somewhere.
Something will eventually dislodge that frigid air, Already, the frigid air is expanding across a good chunk of western and northern Canada. Although the coldest air won't come south in western North America, it looks like the frigid dome of air will help suppress the jet stream south out that way for a time during the middle of the month.
That will be a good thing actually. It will turn flood-wracked British Columbia colder and somewhat drier. And it will push rain and storminess into the drought zone that is California.
Eventually, the weather pattern will change and great chunks of this frigid air will plunge south. A worst case scenario for Vermont is if the ridge of high pressure keeping the cold air in Canada holds firm in the center of the nation, but causes a dip in the jet stream over New England.
That could open the door for the worst of the frigid air to plunge south into New England, in a pattern similar to that of December, 1980 and January, 1981. That was the year temperatures stayed in the minus teens for most of us for all of Christmas Day.
Of course we don't know whether that will happen or not. But enjoy the relative warmth coming up for the next couple of weeks. You never know when the icy Sword of Damocles Arctic air will come plunging down upon us.
No comments:
Post a Comment