| The blooming irises and budding peonies in low elevation St. Albans, Vermont certainly don't have to worry about snow tonight, but Vermont's mountain summits could well be white by Saturday morning. |
Here's the latest updates:
SNOW
Forecasters have actually lowered the elevations at which they expect snow to fall tonight. They now expect snow as low as 3,000 feet above sea level, taking the flakes pretty far below summits.
This won't be a big summit snowstorm by any means, but places near 3,000 feet or a little higher could get a slushy coating to a half inch of snow. Summits might see 1 to 2 inches, maybe more if there are any cold surprises.
In eastern Vermont especially, the National Weather Service says a few flakes could fall at elevations as low as 2,000 or 2,500 feet, though no snow will accumulate at such a low elevation.
Keep all this in mind if you have a big Saturday morning hike planned. Either postpone it or dress for a winter hike, your choice.
RAIN
The cold, small but intense bowling ball of a storm that has blasted down from the Arctic Circle and was making its way southward through Quebec toward New England this morning. The direction of the storm is odd enough, most of them come from the west or south, not from the Great White North.
When storms do come from the north or northwest, they tend to be pretty dry affairs, with light precipitation. There's no warm ocean up that way to add a lot of moisture to the atmosphere. But this storm is so dynamic that it's able to squeeze every bit of moisture it can out of the air.
The Northeast Kingdom, along with northern New Hampshire and western Maine, can expect more than an inch of rain between this afternoon and noon Saturday. The area around New Hampshire's White Mountains could receive two inches of rain. That will probably translate to a LOT of snow atop Mount Washington, which is New England's highest peak.
Rainfall amounts will fall sharply as you move away from the Northeast Kingdom. Places a little north and east of Interstate 89 can expect up to three quarters of an inch. The Champlain Valley would get a half inch north up near St. Albans and Alburgh, tapering to a quarter inch south of Burlington.
Southern Vermont only gets a tenth of an inch out of this.
TIMING
Light showers were already scattered around northern New York and Vermont as of 9 a.m. The showers will start to increase in intensity and number north later this morning or early afternoon and spread south and east. There could be a rumble of thunder because the storm is so dynamic. Once the rain arrives, temperatures will fall rapidly from the 60s through the 50s. Tonight's lows will be between 38 and 45, except low 30s above 3,000 feet.
SATURDAY
The rain should taper off pretty early in the day. The morning should feel pretty chilly and blustery, but the sun should come out in most areas during the afternoon. That'll boost temperatures into the 55 to 65 degree range, depending on whether you are fairly high up in elevation north or a low elevation south. That's pretty cool for this time of year, but it's actually pretty nice for outdoor activities.
SUNDAY
Part of the day will be nice. By early afternoon, most of us should see temperatures within a few degrees either side of 70. But the next cool storm from the north will start to arrive in the afternoon with its batch of showers.
This cool batch of rain isn't as cold or as intense as the one we're getting tonight. So it shouldn't snow in the mountains and rain in the Northeast Kingdom will be lighter than tonight's go around.
BEYOND SUNDAY
We'll have trouble getting rid of this weather pattern, so it will be relatively cool and showery at least through Tuesday. But it could last until the end of the week, depending on which weather model you believe. Stay tuned!

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