Vermont weather geek's hodgepodge of weather and climate news and opinion. Often Vermont focused, but taking a national and global approach, with sometimes an appropriate dash of fun, outrage, cynicism and compassion.
Buried cars in South Burlington, Vermont, January 3, 2010, after Burlington received a record 33.1 inches of snow. Though it was the biggest storm on record, it's not remembered as much as other, more widespread snowstorms and blizzard in Vermont history.
Fifteen years ago today, Burlington, Vermont was digging out from is biggest snowstorm on record. On January 2-3, 2010, the city was buried beneath 33.1 inches of fresh snow.
Despite that record, the January, 2010 snow blitz isn't really remembered as a top tier historic snowstorm, like the famous Blizzard of 1888, December, 1969, the Valentine's Blizzard of 2007 or even the Pi Day Blizzard of March, 2017.
The storm 15 years ago is a great illustration of how quirky Vermont weather can be.
The January, 2010, was, oddly, pretty much just a phenomenon of the Burlington area, and not particularly widespread. There wasn't a lot of wind with the storm, and the snow's consistency was like the lightest of feathers.
Usually during winter storms, Burlington receives less snow than the mountains, which can more easily collect moisture, or southern Vermont, which more frequently gets clipped by powerful nor'easters along the coast.
In January, 2010, Burlington got more snow than anyone in Vermont. Nearby Essex Junction was close, with 30 inches, and Charlotte had two feet.
But many other areas of Vermont had just a run of the mill midwinter snowfall. The summit of Mount Mansfield only managed 11 inches. Stowe had just 4.5 inches, and Marshfield had a whopping 2.7 inches.
Snow accumulation of over 20 inches was limited to just most of Chittenden County and northern Addison County. Parts of the Northeast Kingdom and some towns in Rutland and Franklin counties sw a foot or so of snow, but much of central Vermont had six inches or less.
There were two main reasons why the January, 2010 storm hit Burlington so hard but wasn't a big deal elsewhere in the state.
One reason was lake effect. All day, the wind flow was just perfect over the unfrozen Lake Champlain to scoop up moisture into clouds and snow. The other reason was a temperature inversion just about summit level along the Green Mountains.
Usually, the moisture in a northwest wind flow doesn't release snow until the wind is forced to ride up the west slopes of the Greens. In January, 2010, that inversion blocked the air flow, so the snow was released from the clouds over Chittenden County, and not the mountains to the east.
Another reason why the January, 2010 storm was so manageable was the lack of water in the snow. It was so light and fluffy that you can almost clear it away with a leaf blower. If you melted Burlington's big January, 2010 storm down, you get the equivalent of just under an inch of rain.
Fluffy snow packs down more readily, too. So within days of the big storm, there wasn't all that much snow on the ground. Despite continuously below freezing temperatures and 9.1 inches of additional snow in the interim, the snow depth in Burlington was down to 13 inches by January 13.
The snow pretty much went away on its own.
Other big snowstorms in Burlington had a much higher water content, meaning the snow was heavier. That made the snow harder to shovel, harder to plow, and easier to get stuck in. Plus, the only way to get rid of the dense snow was through thawing.
Despite temperatures in the single digits above zero, the snow in the Valentine's blizzard of 2007 was dense and heavy. The 25.7 inches of snow that fell in that storm consisted of just under two inches of water.
On December, 25-28, 1969, Burlington was hit by 29.7 inches of snow. The water equivalent was 2.73 inches.
The Pi Day Blizzard in March, 2017 was also relatively light and fluffy, but not quite as feathery as January, 2010. Pi Day dumped 30.4 inches of snow on Burlington with a water equivalent of 1.13 inches.
So yes, the January, 2010 snowstorm was a big deal, at least for Burlington. But what makes a snowstorm truly memorable is not just the amount, but the consistency of the snow, the wind, and how widespread the storm is.
Forecast map has a pretty good storm near New England' on Tuesday. This is just one of many variations of what could play out for storminess next week.
That storm I told you about this morning that would go by to our south still will do so, but the fringe effects in Vermont will
out to be a little more extensive than we thought this morning.
The storm is more dynamic than it seemed it would be this morning. There's been some heavy snow today in western and central New York, for instance.
Buffalo, New York has gotten to six inches and it's still coming down.
Here in Vermont, high elevations in far southern parts of the state look like they're in for around four or even five inches of new snow tonight.
Lower elevations can expect maybe two or three inches.
That's a contrast to the one to three inches along and south of Route 9 that we expected this morning.
The snow will extend further north than anticipated, too. Snowflakes could touch down as far north as Route 2. Low elevations in Rutland and Windsor counties should see an inch or less, but up to two inches or so should come down in ski resorts like Okemo, Killington and Pico.
The storm next week looks more certain for Vermont, too. I still stand by everything I wrote this morning, which you can read below. Except: It's now almost certain that all of Vermont will get some snow. Maybe a little, maybe a lot in some areas.
If anybody in Vermont gets tons of snow, my initial guess is high elevations of southern Vermont. But that's not a promise.
There's a risk of heavy, wet snow, too, and power outages if things turn out for the worse. I'll have a bigger update on this upcoming storm in Saturday morning's post, so stay tuned!
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Rumors abound today of a big winter storm to blast Vermont/New England next week.
Before you get your panties in a bunch over this, you might want to take a deep breath and realize this: It's complicated. As usual.
Something interesting seems like it wants to happen around New England starting Monday and lasting at least into midweek, but right now it could be anything from a nothing burger, to a mid-sized storm to a blockbuster.
Right now, I'm not really in the blockbuster camp. At least for most of Vermont. A lot of other meteorologist are skeptical, too.
So: Here's what's going on.
I told you about the so-called Greenland Block in a post I published Thursday. That's the big high pressure system that gave Greenland an early taste of summer in recent days but has recently made Vermont's weather pretty humdrum lately.
That state of affairs will continue through the weekend around here. The Greenland Block is suppressing storms to our south. One storm, which some forecasts several days ago predicted would harass us Vermonters tomorrow is going to pretty much miss.
This is an eastbound storm from the Midwest should arrive at the Jersey Shore sometime tonight. (Hello, Snooki!). Instead of making a left turn and becoming a nor'easter like many of these storms do, it'll trundle off to the east, thanks to our friend the Greenland Block.
The storm will stay too far south to give us Vermonters any kind of interesting weather. Oh, sure, there might be an inch or two of snow along and south of Route 9 and some snowflakes as far north as Route 4, but no biggie.
Expect a blah weekend, though Sunday might give us some sunshine.
THEN WHAT?
The big high pressure up in Greenland is moving a bit westward, into far northern Canada. That would allow the next Jersey shore-bound storm early next week to turn north and attack us. Maybe.
One possibility is that the storm will go off the coast like this weekend's will, but then be forces northward or even northwestward into New England Monday night and Tuesday. Since that blocking high pressure is still way up there in northern Canada, the storm's northward progress could be stopped by that roadblock to the north.
If that happens, the storm could linger near or east of New England at least into Wednesday. If that happens, snow or rain will linger quite a bit longer than it otherwise would, so you could potentially see big snow accumulations. If it's cold enough.
THE POSSIBILITIES
Temperature is just one question with this potential storm.
Here are some others:
1. Maybe the Greenland Block will not move fast enough and the storm will just go out to sea and miss New England like the one on Saturday.
Many forecasts have the storm slowing down near New England. This is a forecast map for Wednesday, and you can compare the map above and see the storm doesn't skedaddle out like most storms this winter. Of course, this is just one depiction of what could happen and is definitely NOT an official forecast.
2. The storm could curl northward toward New England, but give eastern New England a big storm and leave us Vermonters just some fringe effects. If it turns out to be a "bomb cyclone," like some models indicate, somebody in New Hampshire, Maine or eastern Massachusetts could get really buried.
3. The storm could really make a tight northward jog and come inland or close to it in eastern Massachusetts. If that happens, it would rain down there, but Vermont could be in the cross-hairs of a LOT of snow.
Anything is possible. As of last evening, varying computer models had the storm somewhere between New York City and Bermuda Monday night. So as of this morning, all anybody can do is forecast a dusting to two feet of snow in Vermont during the first half of the week.
My bias at the moment is against a huge blockbuster, except possibly in southeastern Vermont, but I've been wrong before. We stand a decent chance of seeing some accumulating snow in at least part of Vermont, but that's as far as I want to go for now.
I don't think meteorologists will have a great handle on forecasting this wannabe storm until Sunday. And even after that, I expect the unexpected.
Even if we do see a lot of snow, or at least precipitation, remember it's March, and it can easily mix with or change to rain in the valleys. It's warmer this time of year.
The sun angle is high, too. Even if it stays snow, accumulations would be limited. That's what we saw last Saturday. It snowed all afternoon, but there was no new accumulation with the sun's heat working its way through the clouds.
MARCH 12-15 SNOW BOMB MAGNET?
Here's one thing that could give cause for concern with this potential storm, but it is completely unscientific.
There's something about March 12-15 that seems to attract mega-snowstorms to Vermont and other parts of New England.
The famous blizzard of 1888, which dumped up to 50 inches of snow on southwestern Vermont and two to three feet across most of the state, struck on March 12-14.
On March 13-14, 1984, three feet of snow fell on most of the southern four counties of Vermont within 24 hours, while eastern Vermont received two feet. Just the Champlain Valley was spared. "Only" 10 inches fell on Burlington.
The famous "Storm of the Century" hit the eastern United States,including Vermont on March 12-14, 1993. Here in Vermont, most of us had around two feet of snow, which included snow thunderstorms. Although the storm was huge even by Vermont standards, the impacts here weren't as bad as in many other states, so in Vermont, I dubbed the blizzard, "Storm of the Weekend."
More recently, the "Pi-Day Blizzard" struck Vermont on March 14, 2017. Northwestern Vermont was plastered with up to 32 inches of snow. At times, snow fell at a whopping rate of five inches per hour. Burlington received 30.4 inches of snow, its second biggest snowstorm on record,.
I think big snowstorms hit in mid-March because it's often still just cold enough to snow around here. But the South is warming into spring. The clash between the warmth of spring and lingering winter cold is often greatest in mid-March. Which can result in some big storms.
I don't know whether next week's storm will join the list of mid-March blockbusters. If it does, it will add to a long list.
Saturday's snowstorm had the potential to be much larger than it was, had the ingredients come together better. That would have been in keeping with March, which has a history of epic snowstorms in Vermont.
Some early forecasts for the recently departed storm had called for a blockbuster.
It was not to be, of course, it was just one of those mid-sized late winter storms. Had we gotten a huge dump, though, it would have been totally in character for a Vermont March.
There's something about March that tends to bring on the epic snowstorms. I think it's because the forces of winter are still at full force up in the Arctic, but the first warm flutters of spring air are coming up from the south.
Warmer air holds more moisture, so when that balmy spring air goes on a collision course with an Arctic blast, all hell can break loose. And by that I mean a LOT of snow, when the conditions are right.
I see no snowstorms on the horizon at this point, but remember, we can get a foot of snow in storms well into April.
Which means March is still snow season.
Seven of Burlington, Vermont's 20 biggest snowstorms have occurred in March. That's impressive when you consider this is the time of year when it's starting to warm up a bit, which could make big snowfalls a little less likely.
Here's a highlight reel:
Blizzard of 1888:
This one isn't listed as one of the top 20 March snowstorms in Burlington, due to a lack of reliable records. But since people are still talking about this one, there's no doubt it was the Big Daddy of March storms, or close to it.
Bennington reported 48 inches of snow. Nearby Saratoga Springs, New York reported 58 inches. Other southern Vermont towns were north of 40 inches. Most of the rest of the state was in the two to three foot range.
This, however, was a much windier storm than most of them in the Green Mountain State. Which means the drift were enormous. Wind gusts reached 30 to 40 mph or even more across the state, causing enormous drifts.
VTDigger, in a history lesson about the Blizzard of 1888,described drifts so deep that people built tunnels through them to make their way down sidewalks. Wind swept snow down to bare ground in spots, and piling it elsewhere above the tops of first floor windows.
Of course, Vermont wasn't the only place slammed by this famous storm. Practically everyone from Washington DC north had an enormous snow blockade from this storm, and up to 250 people died in the storm.
The Blizzard of 1888 was caused by a classic nor'easter that stalled and did a slow loop de loop just south of Rhode Island, which prolonged the heavy snow and wind in the Northeast.
Vermont's Deepest Snowstorm, March 2-5, 1947
In March, as we warm up toward spring, we often see storms deposit mostly rain in the valleys with snow in the mountains.
The most extreme example of this kind of thing hit southern Vermont in the opening days of March, 1947.
As the Vermont Weather Bookdescribes it, a strong storm took an unusual path from central New England, northwestward to the northern tip of New York and then up into Ontario.
This created a nearly stalled weather front oriented northwest to southeast just south of southern Vermont. This set up a long-lasting fire hose of moisture into the Green Mountains of southern Vermont.
Valleys had a rain/snow mix. Rutland, for instance had 16.7 inches of new snow from the storm, but 2.38 inches in liquid content, which is a LOT. But in the high elevation towns, it was all snow. Readsboro reported 50 inches of new snow from the storm, the most on record for any place in Vermont in a single storm.
To give you an idea how much water this "fire hose" storm had, melted water equivalent of the snow was four to five inches. That would have created a flash flood had that been rain.
Superstorm, March, 1993
This was arguably the nation's worst winter storm of the 20th century. The storm created a swath of deep snow amounting to 20 inches or more from northeastern Alabama to New England and on into southeastern Canada from March 12 to 14, 1993.
Satellite view of the Superstorm of March, 1993 in the eastern U.S.
The storm's impacts were by far the worst in the South, as an intense blizzard struck large parts of the Southeast. Worse, the storm caused a destructive derecho, tornado outbreak and storm surge in Florida.
Up here in Vermont, the storm just created a bunch of heavy snow and rare thunder snow. The 22.4 inches of snow that piled up in Burlington was at the time the city's third largest snowstorm on record. (Since then, with newer, bigger storms, it's been relegated to 8th place). Montpelier logged 25.6 inches of new snow.
This storm was designated "Storm of the Century" for good reason, but in Vermont, some wags called it "Storm of the Weekend." The bulk of it hit on a Saturday and Saturday night, giving time for road crews to clean up things in time for the Monday morning commute. We moved on pretty quickly.
The storm was certainly disruptive in Vermont, but could have been worse.
Two blasts of frigid late season air did follow this storm, causing some record and near record lows for that late in the season. Burlington reached 12 below on March 15 and 10 below on March 19. Montpelier sank to 13 below on the 15th and 16 below on the 19th.
Town Meeting Day Snow, 2001
A big nor'easter came just in time for Vermont's storied Town Meeting Day. The storm dumped 15 to 30 inches of snow on Vermont on March 5-6, 2001, forcing many towns to postpone Town Meeting. Snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour were common, which is really big for a winter storm. It was Burlington's seventh largest snowstorm on record.
The storm was the first installment in Vermont's snowiest March on record. Burlington had 47.6 inches of snow for the month. On March 31st that year, some Vermont towns had another installment of about a foot of snow.
On April Fool's Day that year, some towns, like Plainfield and Eden had close to four feet of snow on the ground. That led to fears of severe spring flooding, but April turned out to be among the driest on record. Only minor flooding occurred
March 6-7, 2011
The storm was odd in that it began with a bout of heavy rain and mild temperatures, which caused some minor flooding and ice jams.
Burlington, Vermont's Church Street Marketplace during the snowstorm of March, 2011 one of the largest on record.
But the a sharp cold front dropped temperatures quickly in northern Vermont on the morning of March 6. Burlington dropped 16 degrees in an hour.
As a new storm moved north, snow became heavy, with rates exceeding two inches per hour. Burlington ended up with 25.8 inches of snow, the third greatest snowstorm on record. Most of Vermont, except the far south had 18 to 30 inches of new snow.
Needless to say, such great amounts of heavy snow made things pretty much grind to a halt in Vermont. At least for a day. There was a lot of water in the snow, too,The liquid equivalent was 0.25 inches per hour at Montpelier, with nearly an inch of water in just five hours. Between the rain at the beginning of the storm and the snow, Montpelier had a melted water equivalent of 3.25 inches of precipitation.
That's an inch or so more than what normally falls during the entire month of March.
This was important for later in the spring. This storm ended up being an ingredient to what proved to be a disastrous spring flood season in Vermont. It contributed greatly to an already thick mountain snowpack.
That snow, combined with record rainfall in April and May, produced devastating spring floods and by far the worst Lake Champlain spring flooding on record
Pi Day Blizzard March 14, 2017
After record-shattering warmth in late February, it seemed that we'd have an early spring in 2017. Not so fast.
The heaviest snow fell over northwestern Vermont and northeastern New York, where widespread totals of 24 to 32 inches were logged. Burlington had 30.4 inches of snow, its second biggest snowstorm on record.
The Pi Day Blizzard in March, 2017 snarling traffic and cutting visibility to near zero in St. Albans, Vermont.
During the peak of the storm snowfall rates were as high as five inches per hour, which is incredible for a winter storm.
The snow was created by a nor'easter with a perfect path to put Vermont in a heavy snow zone. The storm also tapped super-rich moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean and steered it right into the cold air over Vermont.
Strong winds in the Champlain Valley led to blizzard conditions in some areas.
The storm was a relatively slow mover, so that prolonged the storm and contributed to the deep snow.
The snow created near zero visibility and pretty much made roads impassable. The video, below shows the increasing snowfall rates and the disruption to motorists near my house in St. Albans, Vermont. The snow fell too fast for snowplows to keep up with the snow, and even the snowplows had trouble negotiating the road.
If you don't see the video below click on this hyperlink to view it.If you do see it, below, click on the red arrow then the YouTube logo for best viewing.
