Desperate Idea to Rein In Melting "Doomsday Glacier"

Map of Antarctica. The Thwaites glacier is seen 
to the left. If it melts global sea levels
could rise dramatically. 

Climate scientists for quite awhile now have been watching with dread something they've dubbed the "Doomsday Glacier."  

Before you get too panicked,  the glacier won't end the world.  But at some point, it might cause enormous trouble that would be felt around the globe.  

The official name of this thing is Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica. It's about the size of Great Britain, and it is melting.

The "Doomsday" label is because the glacier is so huge and is melting so fast, that its effects are already being noticed. The thawing glacier already accounts for four percent of the world's annual sea level rise. 

Were the glacier to entirely collapse, it would raise global sea levels by about 65 centimeters or roughly two feet. Hence the "Doomsday" label as that much of a sea level rise would be truly catastrophic for coastal cities and communities worldwide.  

Each centimeter of sea level rise would expose an estimated six million people worldwide to coastal flooding, so imagine what 65 centimeters would do. 

Oh, and if the Thwaites Glacier collapses, it could destabilize the much bigger ice sheet behind it. If that big ice sheet goes, that could add another 10 to 15 feet of sea level rise. This wouldn't happen tomorrow, but it's a big enough threat to start thinking about, even if the catastrophe is decades or even a century into the future.

At this point, there's no way to stop Thwaites Glacier from continuing to melt. But maybe people can slow the melt down.  And maybe slowing the melt rate would buy time while us humans struggle to stop the flow of fossil fuel emissions into the atmosphere.  If fossil fuel emissions stop, so too, would climate, eventually at least.  

 ut we are nowhere near that moment yet.

One off the wall, expensive but still perhaps viable idea is to put a huge barrier around Thwaites glacier to stop warm water from getting at it. 

According to Interesting Engineering:

"The proposed structure would be just under 0.1 miles (152 meters) tall and stretch roughy 50 miles across key parts of the seabed in front of Thwaites Glacier. Anchored to the ocean floor, the curtain would act as a physical barrier, limiting the flow of warm seawater that melts the ice shelf from below,"

"The plan faces major technical challenges. The structure would need to survive extreme Antarctic conditions, deep water pressure, moving ice and long-term ocean exposure. Even supporters acknowledge it could take years before any full-scale deployment is possible."

It would also be incredibly expensive, to the tune of several billion dollars. It's unclear from where that money might come.  The logic behind spending that kind of money on a Thwaites Glacier barricade is that it would still be way less expensive than dealing with an eventual 10-foot sea level rise. 

At the very least, this whole thing is a potential research opportunity. 

Probably with this giant, expensive curtain in the back of their minds, scientists are drilling way down through the glacier and deploying instruments to see how warm water is interacting with the base of the glacier.

Data will be transmitted daily via satellite for at least a year. It'll be a way to figure out how deep ocean water in a warming climate affects glaciers it comes in contact with. 

"This is one of the most important and unstable glaciers on the planet and we are finally able to see what is happening where it matters most,'" said Pete Davis of the British Antarctic Survey. 

I have no idea whether this barricade will ever get built or whether the collapse of this "Doomsday Glacier is imminent. But it's just one trouble spot in a world of potential crisis points brought on by climate change.  

"Doomsday Glacier" Might Postpone Its Troublemaking. Maybe.

A part of Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica, which has been
the focus of a lot of study, with worry about climate-
induced sea level rise. Photo from 
British Antarctic Survey

For years, a certain giant glacier in Antarctica has been known as the "Doomsday Glacier", with scientists saying it could collapse at almost any time, causing some abrupt and damaging worldwide sea level rises.  

Luckily, the Thwaites Glacier, as it's known, might not be so scary after all. At least not yet. And it is still at least a little frightening to climate scientists.  

Says Newsweek:

"The research suggested that a catastrophic collapse of the glacier, which could lead to rapid and drastic sea-level rise, is less likely to occur this century than previously thought. 

The Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica - about the size of Florida - has been a major focus for climate scientists due to its unstable nature and significant contribution to sea level rise.

Currently, it accounts for about 4 percent of the annual increase in sea levels and holds enough ice to raise them by over two feet if it fully melts, according to the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration."

Marine ice cliff instability or MICI is when ice shelves collapse, they expose big ice cliffs that often collapse from their own weight, causing a chain reaction of rapid glacier retreat, says Newsweek. 

Scientists have studied MICI in theoretical settings and climate models but never in real world situations. Until now. Newsweek continues:

"Using updated computer simulations, the Dartmouth team found that MICI is unlikely to occur this century at Thwaites. Even if the glacier's entire ice shelf were to collapse today, the resulting ice cliffs would likely not be tall enough to crumble and trigger the catastrophic chain reaction previously feared."

This study contradicts what scientists were saying even just several months ago, that the Thwaites was headed toward imminent collapse. 

That's not to say this thing is perfectly safe.  First of all if it were to collapse, the two foot sea level rise wouldn't be the end of it.  The glacier acts as sort of a giant dam, holding back huge sections of the Antarctic ice sheet. If Thwaites went away, much of that ice sheet would flow into the ocean, eventually raising sea levels by ten feet.

Which wouldn't be good if you live in a low lying coastal city. Like Miami, for instance. 

As recently as September, scientists said comparatively warm sea water was infiltrating beneath the base of the glacier, accelerating melting on its bottom.  That would help accelerate its rate of melting, so that's not good. 

Even if Thwaites were no big deal, we're not safe from sea level rise. 

 It's still going up due to climate change. Sea levels are going up by about 0.13 inches per year. That doesn't sound like much, but it makes a big difference after a few decades, especially in highly developed, flat and sinking coastal regions. 

Plus, the pace of sea level rise is starting to increase.