Today's Severe Storm Threat: Monday Morning Update

This morning's severe storm outlook from NOAA's
Storm Prediction Center. Yellow is level two of
five risk levels.  It means there likely will be 
scattered reports of storm damage. If this forecast
map looks familiar, because the map issued 24
hours earlier, which I featured yesterday, is
almost identical to this one. 

Get ready for what seems like will be a rather loud afternoon and evening in the North Country.

We're still setting ourselves up for some severe thunderstorms later today in Vermont, and surrounding areas, such as the rest of northern New England, New York, southern Quebec and elsewhere. 

You'll notice the air this morning has and is changing. It's growing more humid and the dawn air feels like it's going to get hot. 

A few scattered showers and thunderstorms were already racing into parts of Vermont around 7 a.m.  This is part of a warm front that will introduce the really juicy air that will prep the atmosphere for the main show. That main show is expected to start mid to late afternoon.  

After these early morning warm front showers and storms pass, the sun will at least partly come out. Temperatures soar well into the 80s and to possibly near 90 this afternoon.  The heat will help destabilize the air even more, laying the groundwork for the storms. 

The wind will be gusty from the south all day, especially in the Champlain Valley.  That will keep pumping in the humidity fro the south. 

That combination will make it will feel like a severe weather day even before any big storms develop.'

As usual, this will be a hit and miss kind of affair, even as most of us will see thunderstorms. Certain areas will see wind damage from the storms, while people in the next town over will just see lightning and get drenched by a downpour.   

Vermont, along with many of the areas I mentioned above,  are in a slight risk zone for severe thunderstorms, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. 

Slight risk is level two in the five point risk chart and means whoever is under such a zone can expect scattered instances of storm related dangers, such as damaging winds, large hail or a tornado.

The overall forecast scenario for storms has not changed much since yesterday.     

The warm front will be well into Quebec by this afternoon, and some sunshine should keep going into the early to mid afternoon around Vermont. That should help make the air more unstable and prime the pump for storms later in the day. 

There is at least one complication to this stormy scenario:

Western New York was already being hit by some strong thunderstorms early today.  They were heading rapidly east and northeast and might make it to or near Vermont later this morning.  The might weaken before they get here, but I wonder if these morning storms will serve to hold down temperatures and stabilize the atmosphere a bit. 

If that happens, and that's a HUGE if, then the severe storm threat would diminish somewhat. 

Still, the atmosphere does seem to want to bubble with storms today, so it's worth it to keep an eye to the skies. My guess is the western and now central New York storms will race by, leaving us in partial sun and humid air after lunch  To me, that means the overall forecast holds, at least for now.

The expected big storms will tend to gather along that pre-frontal trough that I mentioned yesterday. A pre-frontal trough is sort of a mini weather front out ahead of a cold front.   Updrafts are drawn to this trough, so this is where you'd get your thunderstorms. 

Those storms should fire up during the mid-afternoon in New York State and head east.  A few storms might pop up ahead of the main line, and those will need to be watched, too.  These discrete storms -not part of a squall line still have a very low, but not zero chance of producing a brief spin up tornado.

The main risk of course is strong winds. Current forecasts have a pretty solid line of storms coming into western Vermont in the late afternoon or early evening and plowing eastward as the evening wears on. 

You can't tell in advance, like this morning, where the worst storms could form along this line. But if that line forms and approaches, look for parts of the line that sort of bow out in the shape of a backwards "C".   Areas at the apex of any backwards "C" can expect the highest threat from damaging winds. 

I suppose there could be a brief tornado spin up along this line, too, if a particular storm along the line tries to rotate.  But again, the chances of that are slim.  We really need to be on the lookout for strong straight line winds.

Because of the gusty winds all day and the risk of a storm at any time, today is NOT the day to take your boat out onto Lake Champlain. There will be nicer days later in the week for that. 

The timing is such that the strongest storms might be entering western Vermont around the time of the late afternoon and evening commute.  You might not want to be caught out on the highways during the storms, due to blinding rains and wind during the storms.  

The storms will keep moving deeper into Vermont during the evening.  Since the storms will reach southeastern Vermont after dark, instability will be waning, so the storms might also weaken in tandem down there. 

Bottom line: Pay attention to forecasts, and if you hear a severe thunderstorm warning, just stay put in a sturdy building until the storm passes.

I'll update today as warranted. 

 STORMS ELSEWHERE

Tropical Storm Claudette, which moved inland Saturday and weakened to a tropical depression, managed to revive as a tropical storm early today over eastern North Carolina. A little odd to see a tropical system strengthen over land, but things are weird lately, so why not?

Claudette was never a strong storm, but it does demonstrate why you should take even relatively lame tropical storms seriously. Claudette spun of several tornadoes and set off flash floods in spots across the South. 

Thirteen people have died because of this storm, including eight people, mostly children, who died in a fiery Alabama highway wreck caused by vehicles hydroplaning in heavy rain spawned by Claudette.  

In the Midwest, an apparent tornado struck suburbs southwest of Chicago, mostly around Woodridge and Naperville overnight. Easily more than 100 homes were damaged or destroyed, and we have a report of at least one critical injury from the storm. That person was in a house that was completely leveled by the tornado. 

Many other reports of storm damage came in from Missouri, and the northern parts of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. 

We Collected A Little Rain In Vermont As East Turns Stormy; Few Strong Ones NEK

New cucumber plants in my St.  Albans, Vermont garden
surely enjoyed last night's rain.  We still need a lot more 
precipitation, but at least we got something

UPDATE: 1:30 p.m.

Some  thunderstorms are rapidly developing in Quebec, northern Vermont and points east at this hour.

NOAA' Storm Prediction Center says these could develop into rather dangerous supercells for the next few hours. 

These will be few and far between, so most of us are OK. But there is the risk of scattered strong, damaging winds and hail with these.

The areas that could be hit are Vermont's Northeast Kingdom, southeastern Quebec, northern New Hampshire and most of Maine away from the coast.

Around 1 p.m. I watched a storm blow up from a small cloud, essentially, to a pretty good, but not yet severe storm just north of my house in St. Albans, Vermont.  That one could turn into a supercell, though, as it heads into the Northeast Kingdom. Uncertain if it will, but worth keeping an eye out.  It sort of has that "look."

A severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely since the storms will be few and far between, as noted. But keep an eye on the sky in the areas I mentioned. There could even be some storms further south and west, roughly north and east of a Plattsburgh to White River Junction line.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 It's been a stormy start to the weekend in much of the East as severe storms, flash floods, high winds and even a mess of a tropical storm are hitting various places east of the Mississippi River.

The weather pattern is so inclement that a few places here in Vermont managed to pick up a little rain overnight and early this morning. 

That's an accomplishment, considering how rain has seemed to make a point of detouring around the Green Mountain State this year.  

Rapidly developing thunderstorm just north of 
St. Albans, Vermont early this afternoon. This one was
racing east toward Vermont's NEK

It didn't rain in all of Vermont. Southern parts of the state mostly missed out on any precipitation. But in the north, it's a start, if nothing else.  

My very unofficial rain gauge here in St. Albans picked 0.40 inches.   It's enough that perhaps I can skip the now daily chore of watering the gardens. At least for one day. It looks like Burlington managed a little over a third of an inch, and Morrisville was closing in on a  half inch of new rain.   Even so, a lot more rain is needed. 

Most of us won't get any more rain today, but there is still the threat of an isolated severe thunderstorm or two.

A weather front is approaching from the west, which is what could set of those widely scattered storms this afternoon. It's technically a cold front, but since the air doesn't really get any cooler behind it, the term "cold front" seems excessive.

A punch of dry air from the south and southwest will limit how many storms can develop today. But with strong winds aloft and the upper atmosphere cooling off high above us, some of the few storms that develop could blast a Vermont town or two with strong gusty winds. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center previously had us in a marginal risk zone for severe storms today,  the lowest of five levels of severe weather alerts. However, that was dropped by mid-morning for all but extreme northeastern Vermont and on into Maine. Southern New England could also still get a few severe storms.

For most of Vermont, there could be some widely scattered storms today and one or two might be on the strongish side, but there won't be a widespread severe event today. Still, keep an eye to the sky and head indoors if you see dark, threatening clouds or hear thunder. That's especially true if you receive a severe thunderstorm warning. 

Sunday will be a delightful, warm summer day, so that's your opportunity to go aside and enjoy boating, beaches, hiking, etc. 

A brief spurt of hot, humid air on Monday could bring temperatures to near 90 in the warmer valleys and set off some more afternoon thunderstorms, some locally severe.

There is some question as to how slowly a cold front will come through around Monday night and Tuesday and whether and how it will interact with the remains of sloppy Tropical Storm Claudette.  There's potential for a decent amount of rain, but I'm still not really holding my breath on that one 

CLAUDETTE

Speaking of Tropical Storm Claudette, it's one of the most disorganized messes of a tropical storm I've seen. Of course, the aesthetics of a tropical storm don't really matter to most people. It's what kind of weather it's bringing. 

Claudette is causing some flooding from heavy rain along the Gulf Coast, and there has been reports of a couple tornadoes down there too. There was also a fairly impressive storm surge on the Gulf Coast of Mississippi considering the relative weakness of the storm.  

Tornado damage in Indiana from Friday. Severe weather 
will continue in the Midwest today and tomorrow.

Flooding will continue in spots today as Claudette moves inland. Rainfall rates in some spots are as high as five inches per hour with this storm, so you know there's going to be high water.

I still have to address Claudette's appearance though. It didn't even have enough strength to be declared a tropical storm until it was on or even inland from the Gulf of Mexico in Louisiana this morning. That's unusual because tropical storms are almost always declared while they are over water.

The heavy weather, rain and thunderstorms with Claudette this morning were displaced well to the east of its center, as opposed to organized roughly around the center of the storm, which is normal for a tropical storm. This was more of some sort of hybrid storm, and not a classic tropical storm.

That's not to say places along the Gulf Coast didn't experience tropical storm conditions, with winds of at least 39 mph. For instance, Gulfport, Mississippi at one point early today had winds of 43 mph, gusting to 58 mph.

Again, that matters most to weather nerds, but is still worth noting.

SEVERE WEATHER

Areas under threat for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding are covering an oddly large area of the nation.  

Besides us, pretty much everybody in the Northeast and in a wide band extending westward all the way to Colorado could see severe thunderstorms today.  Pockets of severe thunderstorms are common in June, but the areas being hit are larger than usual. 

It was bad enough yesterday and last night. A damaging tornado hit eastern Indiana yesterday, and this morning there was widespread flash flooding in Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky.

More severe weather is likely tomorrow in some of the same areas hit Friday and today in the Midwest.