Mega-Disaster Cyclone That Might Have Killed Thousands On Island Strangely Ignored

Death and devastation on the island of Mayotte, north
of Madagascar after a devastating cyclone hit this week.

A powerful cyclone struck the tiny island Mayotte, possibly killing more than a thousand people, but so far, it hasn't really been in the news much for some reason.  

That's a surprise, given the magnitude of the disaster. 

Mayotte is a French territory off the east coast of Africa, a little north of Madagascar and east of northern Mozambique. To be honest, it's the first time I've heard of this place, and I'm good at geography. It's too bad this new knowledge came because of a tragedy. 

The cyclone was the most powerful to hit the island in more than a century.  Abnormally warm water on the path of the approaching storm fueled the storm, making is stronger than it otherwise would be. The island is heavily populated, and impoverished. The combination looks like it proved lethal.

From the Associated Press:

"Mayotte resident Fahar Abdoulhamidi described the aftermath as chaotic. In Mamoudzou, the capital, destruction was total - schools, hospitals, restaurants and offices were in ruins. Roofs were ripped from homes, and palm trees were half-shorn from winds that exceeded 136 mph, according to the French weather service."

At last report, rescuers were searching for victims and bodies, but some areas were still inaccessible to emergency teams. 

The potential death toll was made worse because many ignored cyclone warnings in the day before it hit, apparently underestimating its power, reports the AP.

"'Nobody believed it would be that big,' Abdoulhamidi told the Associated Press by phone. 'Those who live in bangs stayed in despite the cyclone, fearing their homes would be looted,' he said, referring to the island's informal settlements." 

Estimates of how many people died range widely in the hundreds or thousands. We might never know how many people were lost in the cyclone. Officials said it would be hard to count the deaths and many won't ever be recorded, in large part because of the Muslim tradition of burying people with 24 hours. 

The Washington Post offers more context as to why the death toll is likely so high:

"The damage is feared to be especially severe in the slums of Mayotte, where many undocumented immigrants live. Estelle Youssouffa, a member of France's National Assembly representing Mayotte, tweeted Sunday that shantytowns have been 'razed' and some of their inhabitants engulfed in mud and sheet metal' Most of the houses there were stripped of their roofs, she said, and there was no electricity, water or food."

France is rushing rescuers to the island, but it might be too little too late.

Cyclones, which is the name for hurricanes in the region, are fairly common in the southwestern Indian Ocean and frequently hit spots like Madagascar and eastern Africa.  This one was the 22nd documented cyclone to pass within 30 nautical miles of Mayotte, but obviously, it was the worst in a century or so.

Even with this relative frequency of cyclones, climate change is rearing its ugly head in this cyclone region. 

WaPo again: 

"'The intensity of tropical cyclones in the southwest Indian Ocean has been increasing, and this is consistent with what scientists expect in a changing climate - warmer oceans fuel more powerful storms,' said Liz Stephens, a professor of climate risks and resilience at the University of Reading in Britain."

Unfortunately, Mayotte probably won't be the last huge cyclone tragedy we'll see in or near Africa in the coming years.  

Drone video shows the devastation on Mayotte. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that:

Madagascar Is A Hurricane Magnet This Winter

Satellite view of the fourth cyclone to hit 
Madagascar this winter. 

 Madagascar, the island nation off the east coast of Africa, has been hit by three deadly, destructive cyclones this winter. 

Today, a fourth cyclone will strike Madagascar.

Cyclones - which are what hurricanes are called in the Indian Ocean - occasionally strike Madagascar, but this is ridiculous. 

The newest cyclone is named Emnati. It was the equivalent of a category 4 hurricane on Sunday, weakened only a little Monday when it encountered slightly cooler water temperatures, and the storm went through an eyewall replacement cycle, notes Yale Climate Connections. 

The warmer the water, the more likely a hurricane or cyclone will maintain its strength or get more powerful.  Hurricanes often go through eyewall replacement cycles, in which the ring of powerful thunderstorms surrounding the eye of the storm fall apart, only to be replaced by a new ring of scary storms.

During the eyewall replacement cycle, hurricanes usually get weaker, but once the cycle is complete, they can get stronger again.  If this cycle completes itself, Cyclone Emnati would maintain a Category 3 strength, as water temperatures near the Madagascar coast are at 82 degrees, warm enough to make a hurricane happy. 

Category 3 storms have winds of 111 to 130 mph and storm surges of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels.  If this cyclone maintains at least Category 2 strength, with winds up to 110 mph, that would make four Category 2 or stronger storms this year. 

I'm getting into the niceties here of hurricanes and cyclones, when in this case, it doesn't really matter of Cyclone Emnati is a category one, two or three.

Yale Climate Connections notes that there is a very slight silver lining to this particular cyclone. Unlike the other three cyclones this season, Emnati is expected to hit southern Madagascar.

The earlier cyclones hit further north, and southern Madagascar is having a drought.  Cyclone Emnati will bring beneficial rains, but it will be too much too quickly. 

There's been a lot of deforestation in recent years and decades on the island and this makes floods worse. The denuded, steep slopes there can't hold onto water nearly as well without trees, so that causes great gushes of water and mud in heavy rains, like what is expected from Enmati. 

Although this is a terrible cyclone year for Madagascar, it so far hasn't broken the record. In 1975 five named storms and three tropical depressions hit the island, says Yale Climate Connections.  

It is also unclear whether climate change is influencing this busy storm year in Madagascar. 

Other World Weather News: Madagascar Cyclone, More South American Heat, Canadian Ice

Cyclone Batsirai bearing down on 
Madagascar this past weekend. 

While we contend with winter storms here and there in the United States, other parts of the world continue to tally their own weather disasters and extremes.  

MADAGASCAR HURRICANE

A cyclone, which is what a hurricane is called in the Indian Ocean, on Saturday struck  Madagascar, the island nation off the east coast of Africa. 

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai with winds of up to 115 mph and torrential rains slammed into the central east coast, killing at least 20 people and causing widespread damage. Emergency workers said the death toll will almost certainly rise a lot more.  

The storm was the equivalent of aa Category 3 hurricane. 

It had been packing winds of up to 145 mph Thursday as it cruised through the Indian Ocean, headed toward Madagascar. That island is still trying to recover from extensive flooding from Tropical Storm Ana a few weeks ago.

As Batsirai passed by, an incredible 56 inches of rain fell in one spot on Reunion Island within 72 hours. That island is notorious for freaky rains. Reunion holds the world record for most rain within 24 hours - 71.8 inches in January, 1966. For perspective, is normally takes nearly two years to accumulate that much rain here in Vermont. 

Madagascar does have a history with tropical cyclones, as it averages one hit per year. The problem is, the hits are getting harder. 

The nation of 28 million people has been hit by 12 landfalling storms of Category 4 or greater, but eight of those have struck since the year 2000, notes CNN.

While this one was a Category 2 storm, the fact that this one comes on the heels of another tropical cyclone a few weeks ago makes this one all the worse.  

ECUADOR MUDSLIDE

Winter is summer south of the Equator and that part of South America has had a terrible summer of alternating heat waves and vicious storms.

One of the latest hit the capital of Ecuador with immense mudslides in torrential rains. The disaster killed at least 24 people and injures more than four dozen others, reports the Washington Post.

Numerous homes collapsed or were carried away by mud and water

NOVA SCOTIA ICE 

Damaging ice storm in Nova Scotia last weekend.

Storms don't stop at borders. Last week, a crippling ice storm cut power and damaged trees from Texas to New York. The ice kept going into southeastern Canada after leaving New England Friday, and dealt a messy blow to Nova Scotia.  

The storm cut power to 53,000 Nova Scotians and plenty of branches and trees collapsed under the weight of the ice. 

ICELAND/GREENLAND BLAST

The storm that hit the United States from Texas to Maine with snow and ice, then Nova Scotia, as I described above did not actually have a strong center of low pressure.  It had boatloads of moisture, which is why precipitation was so heavy. But the storm center itself wasn't that strong.

Until it was. Once the storm rolled past Nova Scotia it blew up to become the strongest storm of the season in the North Atlantic. That's saying something, because there's tons of wicked strong winter storms in the North Atlantic

The center of this thing went up to between Greenland and Iceland. It blasted southern Greenland and Iceland with hurricane-force winds in spots, blizzards, along with storm surges and destructive coastal waves.

The storm cut power to swaths of Iceland, including parts of the capital Reykjavik as winds gusted to as high as 90 mph on parts of the island. Repairs to power lines were slowed by lightning, which is quite rare in Iceland, especially in the winter.