Iceland Gearing Up For Atlantic Current Collapse

Iceland considers the risk of a critical Atlantic Ocean
current collapsing an existential threat. 

New research I posted about back in September about the possible collapse of a critical Atlantic Ocean current has Iceland on high alert. 

The newer research contradicted some earlier studies and said that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could shut down as soon as the middle of this century.  

That's really bad, because the current is what keeps western Europe mild and wet. Without the current, winters in western Europe would become something like central North America, and droughts would take hold. In effect, western Europe would suffer through a sort of regional ice age. 

This mess would, of course, be due to climate change.  

The collapse of the current would also cause bad, bad, worldwide effects, such as greatly increased water temperatures along United States East Coast. That would cause an abrupt rise in sea levels, since warm water expands. It would also might make the eastern United States more prone to hurricanes and other big storms. 

The collapse of the AMOC would also mess up rainfall amounts and seasons that farmers in Africa, India and South America have relied upon for centuries. 

Then there's Iceland. 

Like most of the rest of the world, Iceland has been warming up, thanks to climate change. The island nation way up in the North Atlantic actually saw their first mosquitoes in recorded history this year because the region had warmed up so much. 

If the AMOC shuts down, Iceland would definitely earn its name. It, too, benefits from the warmth of AMOC. 

Even though an AMOC collapse might not happen for a few decades, if at all, it has put Iceland on full alert:

According to Iceland Review:

"Iceland has, for the first time, classified a climate-related phenomenon as a national security threat, following warnings that a key Atlantic Ocean current system may be approaching collapse."

......"The move allows authorities to coordinate response plans across ministries, covering food and energy supplies, infrastructure and transport resilience."

MSN continues the story: 

"It is a direct threat to our national resilience and security.' Iceland Climate Minister Johann Pall Johansson said by email '(This) is the first time a specific climate-related phenomenon has been formally brought before the National Security Council as a potential existential threat.'"

Iceland is looking at a full range of possible effects of an AMOC crash, such as energy supplies, food security, infrastructure and transportation, both internal and with other nations.  

Other nations are taking notice, too. 

For instance, Ireland's weather service scientists briefed the nation's prime minister on the AMOC issue. Norway's environmental ministry said it was "seeking to deepen our understanding of the issue through new research" before determining whether to classify AMOC as a security risk,' MSN reported. 

INTERCONNECTED CHAOS

Of course, nobody knows when or if the AMOC will grind to a halt. If that happens, scientists think it would make Antarctica warm up even faster than it is now.

Newly released research also suggest that melting around West Antarctica now could help preserve the AMOC, or at least slow its demise.   

According to New Scientist:

"..it won't be enough to prevent major changes to the climate. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would still decline buy 60 percent, and its full recovery would take 3,000 years."

Which seems to me a little long to wait, don't you think?

As always, there's a lot of ifs, questions and blank spots in the research done by Sacha Sinet at Utrecht University in the Netherlands. 

 New Scientist again:

"According to simulations by Sinet and his colleagues, the timing of the melting is key. If a centuries-long pulse of Antarctic meltwater arrives at the same time as massive melt from Greenland, it will only see up the AMOC shutdown. 

If the Antarctic water arrives about 1,000 years before the peak of Greenland's melting, however, the AMOC would weaken for several hundred years, but then recover over the next 3,000 years. While the AMOC eventually recovered in all scenarios, this early Antarctic melt prevented its total collapses and sped up its revival." 

In other words, climate change isn't as simple as the world just warming up. Everything is connected, so expect the unexpected when it comes to climate change. 

Mosquitoes In Iceland? Climate Change Adds Bugs To "Cold" Nation

Thanks to a warming planet, mosquitoes have been
found for the first time in Iceland. The bugs, and
the diseases they carry, have been heading into 
colder areas largely because of climate change. 

 Mosquitoes have invaded Iceland. 

The cold island in the North Atlantic was considered too nippy for mosquitoes to take hold. 

But thanks to climate change, it's toasty enough in Iceland for those nasty little buggers. 

Per ABC News:

"The disease-carrying insects twas first spotted by insect enthusiast Bjorn Hjalstason, who posed to Facebook group 'insects in Iceland' about a 'strange fly' he spotted on Oct. 16."

Since then, three mosquitoes, two females, one male, have been caught in Iceland. 

ABC News again: 

"The mosquitoes are Culiseta annulata, a cold-tolerant species that live in the Palearctic region, which includes northern Africa, Europe and Asia north of the Himalayas, according to the National Institutes of Health."

It's the most common mosquito in the UK, and has been found in Canada and the northern United States. 

Until recently, Iceland was too cold for mosquitoes. They breed in warm, stagnant water, like in buckets, drainage ditches, flower pots and discarded tires. 

In the good old days, standing water in Iceland was too cold for mosquitoes. But thanks to climate change, not anymore. A mosquito "dumb" enough to find itself in Iceland is no longer guaranteed an immediate, frigid death. 

Or at least its offspring might survive. They'll survive in basements and barns and other protected places around Iceland. 

Pretty much the whole world is warming due to climate change. Iceland is warming at a rate four times faster than the rest of the northern hemisphere.

This year, Iceland had a long, hot summer, at least by their standards. It started early, with a May heat wave bringing Icelandic temperatures to as high as 80 degrees, which was by far unprecedented for that time of year. 

The early start of this year's Iceland summer might have helped mosquitoes gain a foothold. 

MOSQUITO DISEASES HEAD NORTH

Meanwhile, places that already have mosquitoes are finding that diseases spread by these bugs are also spreading north, thanks to climate change.  For the first time, mosquitoes in the UK had the West Nile virus, which in rare cases can cause severe illness or even death in humans. 

Experts also said mosquito-borne disease like dengue and chikungunya could become endemic in Europe soon as the continent warms. 

A type of insect called the tiger mosquito is moving north into Europe as the area becomes toasty enough to allow the mosquito to survive.  Dengue outbreaks have already hit Italy, Croatia, France and Spain. 

Here in the United States, the tiger mosquito (the one that spreads dengue) is on the move north in tune with climate change. They've been spotted as far north as southern New England.

As they move north, subsequent generations of this mosquito evolve to survive slightly lower temperatures. 

That makes them more likely to stick around. 

Because of climate change here in Vermont, we're getting warmer and wetter, the drought this summer and autumn notwithstanding. The hotter and soggier it gets, the more mosquitoes thrive. So if those bugs bother you every summer, they're going to bother you even more, and for a greater portion of the year as time goes by. 

 

Other World Weather News: Madagascar Cyclone, More South American Heat, Canadian Ice

Cyclone Batsirai bearing down on 
Madagascar this past weekend. 

While we contend with winter storms here and there in the United States, other parts of the world continue to tally their own weather disasters and extremes.  

MADAGASCAR HURRICANE

A cyclone, which is what a hurricane is called in the Indian Ocean, on Saturday struck  Madagascar, the island nation off the east coast of Africa. 

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai with winds of up to 115 mph and torrential rains slammed into the central east coast, killing at least 20 people and causing widespread damage. Emergency workers said the death toll will almost certainly rise a lot more.  

The storm was the equivalent of aa Category 3 hurricane. 

It had been packing winds of up to 145 mph Thursday as it cruised through the Indian Ocean, headed toward Madagascar. That island is still trying to recover from extensive flooding from Tropical Storm Ana a few weeks ago.

As Batsirai passed by, an incredible 56 inches of rain fell in one spot on Reunion Island within 72 hours. That island is notorious for freaky rains. Reunion holds the world record for most rain within 24 hours - 71.8 inches in January, 1966. For perspective, is normally takes nearly two years to accumulate that much rain here in Vermont. 

Madagascar does have a history with tropical cyclones, as it averages one hit per year. The problem is, the hits are getting harder. 

The nation of 28 million people has been hit by 12 landfalling storms of Category 4 or greater, but eight of those have struck since the year 2000, notes CNN.

While this one was a Category 2 storm, the fact that this one comes on the heels of another tropical cyclone a few weeks ago makes this one all the worse.  

ECUADOR MUDSLIDE

Winter is summer south of the Equator and that part of South America has had a terrible summer of alternating heat waves and vicious storms.

One of the latest hit the capital of Ecuador with immense mudslides in torrential rains. The disaster killed at least 24 people and injures more than four dozen others, reports the Washington Post.

Numerous homes collapsed or were carried away by mud and water

NOVA SCOTIA ICE 

Damaging ice storm in Nova Scotia last weekend.

Storms don't stop at borders. Last week, a crippling ice storm cut power and damaged trees from Texas to New York. The ice kept going into southeastern Canada after leaving New England Friday, and dealt a messy blow to Nova Scotia.  

The storm cut power to 53,000 Nova Scotians and plenty of branches and trees collapsed under the weight of the ice. 

ICELAND/GREENLAND BLAST

The storm that hit the United States from Texas to Maine with snow and ice, then Nova Scotia, as I described above did not actually have a strong center of low pressure.  It had boatloads of moisture, which is why precipitation was so heavy. But the storm center itself wasn't that strong.

Until it was. Once the storm rolled past Nova Scotia it blew up to become the strongest storm of the season in the North Atlantic. That's saying something, because there's tons of wicked strong winter storms in the North Atlantic

The center of this thing went up to between Greenland and Iceland. It blasted southern Greenland and Iceland with hurricane-force winds in spots, blizzards, along with storm surges and destructive coastal waves.

The storm cut power to swaths of Iceland, including parts of the capital Reykjavik as winds gusted to as high as 90 mph on parts of the island. Repairs to power lines were slowed by lightning, which is quite rare in Iceland, especially in the winter.  

Flood Risk Here, But Nothing Like Epic Torrent in Iceland, Of All Places

Serious damage from flooding and mudslides last week
in Iceland. 

Snow was falling lightly here and there this mild December morning in Vermont, and up to six inches might accumulate on the mountain peaks by tomorrow morning. 

Valleys will get a dusting to at most two inches.

It's just a minor system passing by as we get ready for the expected Christmas Eve and Day storm. That one is still expected to give us a bout of wind, rain and possible flooding. 

The forecast updates as of this morning have the rain coming in just a little later on Thursday afternoon than earlier indicated, and the rain will last a little longer into Christmas Day before a strong cold front shuts that off.

At least minor flooding seems a good bet with this storm, as an inch or more of rain and very warm temperatures will quickly melt the deep snow in southern Vermont. 

Strong winds are also forecast with this storm. 

Latest indications are that snowfall behind the cold front on Christmas Day won't amount to much as dry air cuts into the storm from the southwest.  The exception might be mountain peaks, which could get the remnants of lake effect snows from western New York. 

Today's update on the Christmas storm is broad brush.  I'll get into more detail in a post tomorrow morning. 

ICELAND FLOOD

The potential flooding in Vermont and elsewhere in the Northeast, while possibly dangerous, pales in comparison to a flood that struck Iceland this month. 

Yes, Iceland can have rain and flooding in the winter. The warm Gulf Stream, which keeps western Europe relatively mild in the winter, also passes by Iceland, so that island isn't all that cold in the winter. And they certainly get thaws.

Iceland is also stormy, especially in the winter. 

However, a storm last week was extreme, and caused a lot of destruction. About 500 people were evacuated from one town after landslides swept away several homes and damaged many more, the Iceland Grapevine reports

One town reported 22 inches of rain in five days, which is a record for rainfall intensity in Iceland. It's still rainy in lower elevations of Iceland this week, but the precipitation has become much less intense.

Video: