Desperate Idea to Rein In Melting "Doomsday Glacier"

Map of Antarctica. The Thwaites glacier is seen 
to the left. If it melts global sea levels
could rise dramatically. 

Climate scientists for quite awhile now have been watching with dread something they've dubbed the "Doomsday Glacier."  

Before you get too panicked,  the glacier won't end the world.  But at some point, it might cause enormous trouble that would be felt around the globe.  

The official name of this thing is Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica. It's about the size of Great Britain, and it is melting.

The "Doomsday" label is because the glacier is so huge and is melting so fast, that its effects are already being noticed. The thawing glacier already accounts for four percent of the world's annual sea level rise. 

Were the glacier to entirely collapse, it would raise global sea levels by about 65 centimeters or roughly two feet. Hence the "Doomsday" label as that much of a sea level rise would be truly catastrophic for coastal cities and communities worldwide.  

Each centimeter of sea level rise would expose an estimated six million people worldwide to coastal flooding, so imagine what 65 centimeters would do. 

Oh, and if the Thwaites Glacier collapses, it could destabilize the much bigger ice sheet behind it. If that big ice sheet goes, that could add another 10 to 15 feet of sea level rise. This wouldn't happen tomorrow, but it's a big enough threat to start thinking about, even if the catastrophe is decades or even a century into the future.

At this point, there's no way to stop Thwaites Glacier from continuing to melt. But maybe people can slow the melt down.  And maybe slowing the melt rate would buy time while us humans struggle to stop the flow of fossil fuel emissions into the atmosphere.  If fossil fuel emissions stop, so too, would climate, eventually at least.  

 ut we are nowhere near that moment yet.

One off the wall, expensive but still perhaps viable idea is to put a huge barrier around Thwaites glacier to stop warm water from getting at it. 

According to Interesting Engineering:

"The proposed structure would be just under 0.1 miles (152 meters) tall and stretch roughy 50 miles across key parts of the seabed in front of Thwaites Glacier. Anchored to the ocean floor, the curtain would act as a physical barrier, limiting the flow of warm seawater that melts the ice shelf from below,"

"The plan faces major technical challenges. The structure would need to survive extreme Antarctic conditions, deep water pressure, moving ice and long-term ocean exposure. Even supporters acknowledge it could take years before any full-scale deployment is possible."

It would also be incredibly expensive, to the tune of several billion dollars. It's unclear from where that money might come.  The logic behind spending that kind of money on a Thwaites Glacier barricade is that it would still be way less expensive than dealing with an eventual 10-foot sea level rise. 

At the very least, this whole thing is a potential research opportunity. 

Probably with this giant, expensive curtain in the back of their minds, scientists are drilling way down through the glacier and deploying instruments to see how warm water is interacting with the base of the glacier.

Data will be transmitted daily via satellite for at least a year. It'll be a way to figure out how deep ocean water in a warming climate affects glaciers it comes in contact with. 

"This is one of the most important and unstable glaciers on the planet and we are finally able to see what is happening where it matters most,'" said Pete Davis of the British Antarctic Survey. 

I have no idea whether this barricade will ever get built or whether the collapse of this "Doomsday Glacier is imminent. But it's just one trouble spot in a world of potential crisis points brought on by climate change.  

Near Record Early Cherry Blossom Bloom In Washington DC, But 150 Of The Trees To Be Chopped Down Soon

Stumpy, a beloved cherry tree along the Tidal Basin
in Washington DC is to be chopped down along with
150 other trees because of rising tides. Note the water
surrounding Stumpy in the photo. The tree was
damaged by the high water, giving Stumpy a 
Charlie Brown Christmas tree vibe. That's
why people love Stumpy so much and will miss it. 

 The famous cherry trees in Washington DC reached peak bloom on Sunday, one of the earliest such blooms on record.   

People also better enjoy this year's bloom, as about 150 of the trees are about to be cut down.  (Don't worry, there will be plenty of cherry trees left behind to bloom in future years).

THE BLOOM

First, the early bloom. As the Washington Post notes, people have been keeping track of bloom times among the cherry trees since 1921. This year's was tied with 2000 as the second earliest flowering on record. March 15,1990 takes the cake as the earliest bloom. 

The blossoming came earlier than forecasted and before the start of the Capitol's annual National Cherry Blossom Festival, which started Wednesday and ends April 14.

Climate change (of course!) seems to be playing a role in the earlier blooms as well: Per Washington Post: 

"As March temperatures have climbed over the past century, the average peak bloom date has advanced about six days, from April 4 to March 30. Including this year, each of the past five has seen a peak before March 298. Last year it was on March 23 - more than a week early."

Peak bloom has hit before April 4 in 16 of the past 20 years. Looking at it another way, in the 57 years ending in 1978, the trees bloomed on or after April 12 on thirteen occasions. Since 1978, blooms that late never happened again. 

CUTTING SOME DOWN

Washington DC has about 3,800 cherry trees in and around the Tidal Basin and Washington Monument. After the blooms fade this spring, there's going to be about 150 fewer of them.

They are victims of sinking ground and climate change, which is causing the tidal basin to flood the area more and more frequently, especially near the Jefferson Memorial. 

Back in the late 19th and early 20th century, a seawall was construction in the area to keep tides at bay. But the sea wall has sunk as much as five feet. That's mostly because the area was built on mud dredged from the Potomac River, and that mud has settled.

 Meanwhile, water levels have risen by about a foot due to climate change. 

NPR describes the scene now:

"Every day, twice a day, at high tide, portions of the walkway around the Tidal Basin flood with several inches of water. Some of the roughly 2,500 cherry trees around the basin have water lapping at exposed roots; others are completely inundated. Numerous park benches are partially submerged."

The National Park Service this spring will embark on a $113 million project to raise portions of the walkway.  A new seawall will be built, supposedly high enough to withstand about a century of future sea level rise.  They'll be able to build the seawall higher, if it becomes necessary.

To complete this project to keep the Tidal Basin at bay, they'll have to cut down about 150 trees. Once they're done, the National Park Service promises to plant 274 new cherry trees.

STUMPY

One of the victims of this project is the beloved Stumpy.  

Stumpy is the Charlie Brown Christmas Tree of the Tidal Basin. Repeated flooding from Tidal Basin salt water has turned into Stumpy into a gnarled, lopsided mess.  Still, Stumpy persists, putting out fresh blooms each year. 

People love Stumpy's pluck in the face of such adversity, and they are celebrating it and truly mourning its impending demise. 

The Credit Union Cherry Blossom 10-mile and 5K will commemorate Stumpy with its image on race t-shirts and race metals. Stumpy also now has a full-sized mascot.

The Washington Post adds this:

"Clippings from Stumpy will be sent to the National Arboretum to create genetic matches. The hope is to plant little Stumpy clones on the National Mall or nearby parks. The rest of Stumpy and the other trees will be ground into mulch and spread around the remaining cherry tree bases to protect their roots and provide nutrients to the soil."

Sort of the circle of life, I guess. 

I understand the need to remove Stumpy, but I'm going to miss that brave little tree.  

 

New Report: Sea Level Rise To Accelerate - A Lot

 A chart from a new NOAA report on sea level rises
over the next 30 years paints a grim picture of the 
future. Click on the image to make it bigger, easier to see.

 We're starting to get accustomed now to reports of "sunny weather" coastal flooding, in which high tides in the absence of a storm still cause a little flooding in low-lying ocean front areas.  

This problem is going to get worse in the next three decades. A lot worse. 

Sea levels along United States coasts have risen by ten to 12 inches on average in the past century. That doesn't seem like a lot, until you consider how many roads, houses, buildings and infrastructure are barely above sea level. 

The new report says sea levels in the next 30 years will rise by as much as they did in the past century going up another ten to 12 inches. 

As the Washington Post reports:

"Kristina Dahl, a principal climate scientist with the Union of Concerned Scientists, said research she and colleagues have done suggest that 10 to 12 inches of sea level rise by 2050 would put roughly 140,000 homes at risk of 'chronic inundation,' or flooding every other week on average."

Due to more local changes in land and sea interactions, this sea level rise will be uneven, the report indicates.   Along the East Coast, the projected rise is about 10 to 14 inches, according to the report. It'll be worse on the Gulf Coast, with projected rises of between 14 and 18 inches. 

The faster rate of sea level rise along the Gulf Coast is interesting because, fossil fuels are making glaciers melt faster, contributing to sea level rise. And, as NPR points out, oil and gas extraction along the Gulf Coast is making the land sink, contributing to the sea level rise. So that's two ways fossil fuels are contributing to the problem. 

It's not just the visible flooding that's the problem. Subtle rises in sea levels can make corrosive, salty ocean water infiltrate sewers, building sub-basements, and drinking water supplies. 

And all that that says nothing about what happens when a big storm comes along. 

Moderate flooding - usually enough to cause damage - is forecast to happen ten times as frequently in 2050 as it does now, the NOAA report tells us.  Major coastal flooding which is inevitably terribly destructive, will be five times as frequent as it is now, the NOAA report says. 

This latest bit of bad climate news comes courtesy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA.  This federal study is an update of one done in 2017 and takes advantage of cutting edge modeling from a recent United Nations report on climate change and improved ice sheet modeling and more accurate observational data.  NOAA also used readings from tidal gauges and satellite imagery to complete their analysis, according to the Washington Post. 

The sea level rise projected by NOAA over the next three decades is pretty much set in stone even if we waved a magic wand today and eliminated almost all greenhouse gas emissions. 

The NOAA report tells us that depending on how well or poorly we do with limited greenhouse gases, sea level rises might stabilize at about two feet above the historic average or gaining by nearly eight feet. 

Coastal flooding has already gotten a lot more frequent. Another report last year found that coastlines in the United States had twice as much flooding as they did just 20 years ago, the Washington Post notes. 

Climate change is causing sea level rise as a warmer climate melts ice that is not floating on the sea.  Arctic sea ice, if it all melts, won't raise sea levels much because it's already in the water.  It's like if the ice cubes melt in your glass of gin and tonic, the amount of liquid in your glass won't go up.

But, as ice melts from Antarctic, or the Greenland ice cap, or the mountain glaciers around the world, the water ends up in the ocean and levels go up. 

To make matters worse, water expands a bit as it warms up.  A warmer ocean would get "bigger" and contribute to sea level rise.

Those Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are the real wild card in terms of sea level rise. The amount of warming sufficient to cause rapid melting in those two places is a big unknown, the NOAA report acknowledges. 

"....ice sheet instability is difficult to model and there is great variability in current modeling approaches. Efforts are underway to improve our understanding of ice sheet dynamics in order to more precisely project future sea level rise in response to continued emissions and warming," the report states. 

Despite dire reports like this, develop continues at a fast pace along many of the nation's coastlines.  At some point, something's got to give. 

 

Greenland Suffers A Last Minute Meltdown

After a first half of summer that didn't bring much melting
to the Greenland ice sheet, relatively speaking, a heat
wave last week caused a massive melting spurt. A melting
Greenland is not good, as it contributes to sea level rise. 

This summer had been shaping up as one in which the dreaded annual ice sheet melt in Greenland seemed like it wouldn't be quite as bad as in recent years.  

But the last week of July brought a heat wave and big melt to the Greenland ice sheets. 

Melting there is never good.  Thawing ice in the Arctic Ocean is also not a good thing, but at least that won't raise global sea levels.  That ice is like the ice cubes in your gin and tonic. If the ice melts, the level of liquid in your glass doesn't rise.

Greenland is different. The ice is all on land, above sea level. When it melts, it pours into the oceans and stays there. Unless Greenland gets colder again and snow and ice accumulate year after year. That ain't going to happen with climate change. 

Virtually every summer Greenland will lose of its ice mass. Each year, you want to hope the melting doesn't amount to much.  That way you can hope the winter brings decent additions to the snow and ice mass up there to blunt the impacts of the melting.

With climate change, though, it's a losing battle. A greater and greater proportion of ice melts now each summer than is replenished in the winter.  The excess water runs off into the oceans, worsening global sea level rises. 

Which increases the risk of flooding in coastal cities. It's not as if you can pick up an entire city and move it inland, uphill, in just a few years. Or decades. 

This summer wasn't too bad up there, at least at the start. There was melting ice, but not to the extremes we saw in recent years. 

Then last week. When that heat wave hit.  Enough melt water came off of Greenland to cover all of Florida with two inches of water, reports phys.org news. 

This wasn't the biggest meltdown Greenland has had, that one was in 2019.  But the one last week covered a larger area than the one two years ago. 

Parts of northern Greenland got up as high as 68 degree last week, well above average, says phys.org news 

Nerlerit Inaat airport in northeastern Greenland got up to 74 degrees, an all-time record high for that site.  

This new melt means the ice sheet albedo - the proportion of sunlight reflected of the surface of the ice sheet has worsened. 

The more melting, the dirtier the surface of the ice.  Dirty ice is darker and can absorb more of the sun's energy, increasing its ability to melt.

Fairly luckily, this past week's meltdown happened fairly late in the summer. The sun angle up there is decreasing rapidly, and the chances of new snow to whiten up the ice, is rising.  This would have been worse had this happened in May or June.

The melt season in Greenland typically ends in early September. 

Still, it's bad.   

Melting of the Greenland ice sheets began in earnest around 1990 and accelerated around the year 2000. Scientist believe the Greenland ice sheet is melting at a fastest rate in at least 12,000 years.