Quick Friday Morning Vermont Storm Forecast

Latest snow total maps for the weekend storm from
the National Weather Service office in South Burlington
Guided by forecast trends, they've tweaked the 
expected snow totals upwards a notch
compared to earlier forecasts 

 The trends in the computer models as of early Friday morning have been to tick the expected path of this weekend's storm a bit to the north and west of previous forecasts.  

If that trend holds - and that's still definitely an if - that would increase the amount of snow coming to Vermont with this system. 

The official forecast from the National Weather Service office in South Burlington has tweaked snow totals upward slightly from predictions issued Thursday afternoon.  

The new forecasts roughly drop six inches of snow along and south of Route 4; three to five inches between Routes 2 and 4 and one to three inches far north. 

That said, there's still a lot of things that could go right or wrong to either dump much more snow on Vermont or much less. Just slight variations in the storm track would cause a forecast bust.

To illustrate, National Weather Service maps this morning indicate there's a 10 percent chance that the storm could dump a foot of snow as far north as Route 2 and six inches all the way to the Canadian border. On the other hand, there's still a 10 percent chance of absolutely no snow along and north of Route 2 and just two to five inches in southern Vermont. 

The bottom line is: Expect some snow in Vermont Saturday night and Sunday, with increasing amounts the further south you go.  Most of southern New England and interior New York and Pennsylvania are under the gun with likely heavy snow, too. 

As I said last evening, any snow we do get should be fairly powdery, so there shouldn't be any real issues with power outages or anything like that in Vermont. However, the snow could be wetter and heavier down in southern New England and the Hudson Valley of New York, so they could have problems with tree and power line damage. 

SECOND STORM

I'm still more concerned about the second storm expected to hit Tuesday night and Wednesday. First of all, if you like snow, you'll dislike the midweek storm. Things could still change, but right now it looks like a snow to mix to rain event. 

More worrying is the potential for strong, damaging winds in some parts of Vermont with the midweek storm. Again, not a guarantee but something to keep a wary eye on. 

Now Tracking Two Storms To Hit At Least Parts Of Vermont

Map shows the current thinking on the chances of 
needing winter storm warnings Sunday. Purple area is at 
least an 80 percent chance. That tapers down to 
roughly a 20 percent chance in blue.  All this
is of course still subject to change. 

 I woke up to a bit of snow on the ground this morning in St. Albans, Vermont, making things look a little more like winter. 

Snow showers were continuing to head south and east across Vermont as of early and mid morning. 

There could be some slick spots amid the heavier snow showers, especially as temperatures drop below freezing behind a cold front from late morning on into the afternoon.

Temperatures are crashing pretty steeply behind the front, so expect temperatures to drop well into the 20s this afternoon. Our little early January mini-thaw is over.

Which sets the stage for Sunday, which we've been talking about for days now. And a subsequent storm set for the middle of next week. That second storm, if early indications prove me right, would be much more of a problem than the first. 

SUNDAY SNOW?

We do't have all the answers  yet for Sunday but we're getting more clarity now. Early indications are that southern Vermont, along with southern and central New England away from the coast and interior New York and Pennsylvania are in the sweet spot for snow.

At least for now. 

There's still wiggle room with this. If the expected path of the storm takes just a slight jog to the northwest, then most of Vermont gets a decent dump of snow. A little jog to the southeast and we get jilted. 

It's a little early to be talking accumulations, but if the forecast stays roughly the same as it is now, places along and south of Route 4 have the best chance of seeing six inches or more. I said chances, not guarantee. Not yet, anyway.  

The storm should be a fast mover, and largely out of our hair by Monday morning, aside from a few snow showers. 

We will, of course, have much more detail on this one as we get closer to the event. At least now, it's looking like at least part of Vermont will actually get some sort of event out of Sunday's storm. The question is still how much?

MIDWEEK STORM

Forecast models have been consistent about a major storm coming through the middle and eastern part of the nation Tuesday and Wednesday. It looks like it might be a powerhouse, with a wide ranging risks of severe storms, heavy snow, high winds, rains and mixed precipitation, depending on where you are from the Great Plains east.

For us, the risk at this point seems like it might be strong winds, and rain, snow or mixed precipitation depending on the exact track of this storm. This one bears watching because it could contain quite a punch for somebody. Don't exactly know who yet, so stay tuned.