Frigid Northern Vermont Mostly Avoiding Nor'easter. UPDATE: Not So Fast!

UPDATE 5 p.m. Tuesday: 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington updated
its snow forecast for tomorrow and Thursday for the
upcoming nor'easter. It looks like six or more inches
might fall from Route 4 southward, with measureable
snow possible all the way to the Canadian border.

Well, surprise, surprise. Local meteorologists have spent the day getting new, better computer guidance, and that well advertised nor'easter seems as if it will have a pretty decent effect on much of Vermont after all. 

Though things are still subject to change, places along and south of Route 2 should expect to get some snow out of this. And by the time you get to far southern Vermont, it'll actually be quite a storm. 

Here's what changed: Now that the weather disturbance that will cause this storm has moved well inland from the Pacific Ocean, the computer models can capture much better data from the atmosphere around this thing. 

This new information shows that the center of the storm's circulation aloft will be more organized, and slower to weaken again once near or off the coast. 

That will help to pull more moisture further inland than originally thought, so more snow can work its way into Vermont.

The whole shebang will be placed a little further north than previously thought, too, so that will spread the snow more to the north.

Current forecasts still vary, but the vaguely general consensus seems to be 8 to 12 inches in the southernmost two counties of Vermont, around six inches up to Route 4; two to six inches between Routes 4 and 6 and two inches or less north of Route 2, with very little near the Canadian border. 

I have seen a couple forecasts of up to two feet in far southern Vermont, but those are outliers and I've decided to dismiss them, at least for now. 

Note that if the trends in the forecast continue northward, these totals might go up.  However, now that the computer models have better samples and the fact there's less time before the onset of the snow on Wednesday, there might not be huge further shifts.

We'll see in the morning whether the computer models make me a liar again regarding the above paragraph. 

They are still expecting quite a snowstorm in much of southern New England, southern New York and areas of Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland a bit inland from the coast. Heavy wet snow, mixed precipitation and strong winds will probably make the Interstate 95 corridor a challenge tomorrow. 

Coastal flooding is likely, too, from Maryland to New England

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

You sure knew it when a second cold front crashed into Vermont last evening. Northwest winds gusting over 30 mph made my St. Albans, Vermont house shudder as I shuddered to think how cold it would be outside when I woke up this morning. 

Wind chills from a strong Arctic high pressure system were down in the single numbers and teens this morning. Actual temperatures this morning were near 20 and will barely budge despite the first sunny weather we've seen November 29.

By tomorrow morning, temperatures in much of Vermont will be down within a few degrees either side of zero. 

The winter cold and the sun are big clues as to what will happen with that highly advertised nor'easter that's about to strike much of the Mid-Atlantic and northeast.

One opinion on how much snow the upcoming nor'easter
will bring. Parts of eastern Pennsylvania and northwest
New Jersey could see up to two feet of snow from this.
Questions remain as to how far north the snow will
reach into Vermont. 

The frigid air is a sign that Arctic high in Quebec is strong, helping to shunt the storm south of us. The sun is a sign that this cold air is dry. That means any moisture from the storm that tries to work its way north will probably evaporate en route, robbing the Green Mountain State of any real snowfall.

Oh, sure far southern Vermont still looks as if it's close enough to perhaps get a few inches of snow out of this.  It's possible that area could still get a nice big dump. Some computer models have moved the heavy snow northwestward into the southern Green Mountains, but others keep the snow there pretty light. Time will tell.

Current forecasts have flurries reaching as far north as the Canadian border. Other models stop the flakes at about Rutland.  The storm's cloud shield will overspread the entire state on Wednesday, dimming or blocking out the sun and ensure it stays really cold for a few days. 

For now at least,  Vermont will probably mostly be a bystander to this event.  At least forecasting this storm is relatively easy for us. 

I feel no envy for any meteorologists near Philadelphia, New Jersey, the New York metro area and Long Island. 

Right along the coast, it seems like enough warm air would intrude to cause mix precipitation or even a period of cold rain. 

Covid era outdoor dining in New York City in the coming days?
Alas, the city has stopped outdoor dining to
make way for the snow plows. 

There will be a distance of maybe just a dozen miles between an icky wet mess of slush and ice and deep powdery snow.  Where that sets up is anybody's guess.  

If any given meteorologist is off by just five miles in their predictions of where the snow and mix line sets up, their forecast will end up being totally wrong.

It's really impossible to forecast that accurately, so some people in this highly populated area are going to be surprised one way or another. 

All those millions of people from Roanoke, Virginia to Boston, Massachusetts can expect a very disruptive storm.  Needless to say, travel is not recommended in these areas tomorrow and Thursday. 

In New York City, where more than six inches of snow is currently forecast, the hurting dining industry is receiving a double whammy.  The state has reimposed a ban on indoor dining due to a spike in Covid. Brave restauranteurs have continued outdoor dining despite the chill. But now that's banned for now to make room for the snow plows. 

There is still time for a shift in the storm's forecast strength and path, so adjustments are going to happen. 

Back here in Vermont, our spell of midwinter cold will ease by the weekend, as we get back up into the 30s in the daytime. 

Nor'easter Week: Mid-Atlantic Targeted; Vermont Still Sitting It Out

Here's what the meteorologists at CBS think will happen
with the storm. Perhaps two feet or more in parts of Pennslyvania,
New Jersey and southern New York. Forecasts are still
varying somewhat, though.

 The forecast for that anticipated big nor'easter hasn't changed much since yesterday.  

A big dump in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, the New York City metro area and probably southern New England, and nothing much here in Vermont.

The devil will be in the details, but this could easily be the biggest snowstorm in years in some of the hardest hit areas.  

What makes everybody confident about this storm happening is the fact that all the computer models have been insistent on this storm since Saturday. That's an unusual consensus for that many days ahead of the actual storm. 

The storm will be moving along at a decent clip, so the snow that those areas get will come down torrentially. 

Already, winter storm watches are up for parts of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and northern Virginia.  Don't travel to those areas Wednesday and Thursday. It's going to be a real mess. It looks like the Interstate 95 corridor will be really nasty. 

There are questions  about how close to the coast the snow will get. The immediate coastline in these areas might be more wet than white, but that's still a question mark as it's a couple days out from the storm yet. 

This storm will disproportionately be in the news, too, since it's hitting the major media centers of New York and maybe Washington DC.   Thus, it will get much more attention than much more dangerous storms that hit in the so called hinterlands, like the extreme August derecho in Iowa that caused at least $7.5 billion in damage. 

Here in Vermont, it seems like southern Vermont will get some snow out of this.  The question is how much?  Earlier guesses aren't that impressive.  Some computer models have light snow making it as far north as roughly Route 2.  Other computer models keep the snow south of Route 4. 

This forecast will get narrowed down and refined over the next couple of days.

On the one hand, I'm glad I won't be shoveling potentially one to two feet of snow out of my driveway, like countless people will in places further south. 

But this is not about me.  A big snowstorm would have been great for Vermont. Ski areas are already hurting greatly because few people can travel to them due to the pandemic.  A big dump would have helped the cause.

Additionally, there's still definitely some lingering dry conditions in Vermont from the drought from this summer and fall. 

This will be the second very wet nor'easter this month that largely will have missed Vermont. The dry conditions have actually worsened in western Vermont so far this month because there's been so little rain and snow. 

Heavy snows would go a long way to help water tables recover for next spring.

Of course, this is just mid-December.  If precipitation becomes noticeably heavier in the coming months, we'll be fine. In the short term, though, there will be very little precipitation in the Green Mountain State for at least the next week. 

The ground will freeze up though.  With highs in the teens to around 20 and lows in the single numbers Tuesday through Thursday, the ground will get pretty frosty.  Which is also bad news. Without a protective layer of snow, the ground will freeze more readily than it would had there been a snow cover.

This frozen ground means it will be harder for rain and melted snow to soak in during any thaws we get this winter. 

Yes, Big Nor'easter Looms, But Probably Not For Northern Vermont

Bare ground and remarkably green grass for mid-
December in my St. Albans, Vermont yard.

This Sunday morning is yet another day in December 2020 in which this winter feels like it's been canceled. 

When I took the dogs out this morning in St. Albans, Vermont, the thin cover of snow we accumulated earlier in the week was long gone. The temperature was 51 degrees. Spring was in the air. 

For the moment at least.

This hesitant season will go back into winter pretty much right away. We will have true winter temperatures by midweek. It'll be the coldest its been in Vermont since mid-February, and the colder hollows of the state will see their first subzero readings of the season.

If you think this will all translate into a winter wonderland, deep in snow, think again. Especially if you live in the northern half of Vermont. 

This is a strong chance of a nor'easter midweek that will probably dump a deep snow cover somewhere in New England.  It's just the chances of that happening dwindle pretty substantially the further north and west you go.

Here's the overall setup:

A cold front is coming though late this morning. Temperatures will slowly settle back through the 40s this afternoon amid cloudy skies but almost no precipitation. 

Waves of progressively colder air will keep coming in through Monday into Tuesday.  These will bring some snow showers, which might whiten the ground a bit but really not amount to much. 

Meanwhile, it was snowing in Oklahoma this morning.  This seems like an irrelevant fact, but is a key reason why we in northern Vermont are unlikely to share in the bounty of the midweek nor'easter.

Here's why: The storm in Oklahoma will dart toward the Mid-Atlantic coast, never getting very strong until then. Once off the coast, though, this storm will bomb out explosively, eventually become a monster, huge  storm way up by Labrador.   

Things did look briefly wintry in my yard this past 
Wednesday, but things quickly warmed up. We
are not expected much snow in northern Vermont this
week, but it will turn quite cold

The eventual Labrador storm will be big enough to steer a frigid, dry area of high pressure into Quebec.  This will feed cold air into the Northeast, making it plenty cold enough for snow in the path of the nor'easter. 

However, as it looks now, this high pressure will squash the nor'easter to the south, so it won't come north enough to get most of Vermont. Also, the high pressure will feed dry air into the region, drying up any precipitation that wants to work north. 

Far southern Vermont is still in play with this nor'easter, and stands the chance of getting a pretty good dump, we'll see. The more you go north, the less chance of any real snow. 

Up north, it will be raw, cloudy and frigid mid week. Many places won't get out of the teens for highs, and lows will be in the single numbers. 

There's still a chance of a surprise shift to the north with the expected nor'easter, but so far, I'm not holding my breath. 

The cold spell will be short lived and we'll probably be back to near normal temperatures by next weekend. That would bring us highs in the low 30s by then. 

Freezing Rain Is Funny (Sometimes)

Woman on the sidewalk in Kiev recently during her epic
battle with freezing rain

 There's a minimal amount of freezing rain in the Vermont forecast tonight. 

It will be very light, and confined to cold hollows. Most of us will be fine. 

But a little dab will do ya, so they say. Which leads us to a viral video from Kiev, Ukraine. 

Recently, they had some freezing rain, enough to coat city streets and sidewalks in a treacherous sheet of ice.  The city was paralyzed because the roads were glare ice. Flights were also canceled

Pretty much everybody in Kiev had trouble with the freezing rain,  but especially the woman wearing the backpack in the video below.  We have a speeded up version of her long struggle with a small, but extremely slick incline on a sidewalk.  One guy tries to help her, but gives up in despair. 

After a long struggle, the woman with the backpack seems to give up, too.

Maybe I shouldn't laugh, as we've all had struggles with slipping and sliding. And one can get hurt falling on it.  The woman appears to be uninjured though.

Watch the video below for yourself. As always in this blog, click on the YouTube logo on it, to watch it on that platform, where it will be bigger and easier to view.

All this video is lacking is a Yakity Sax soundtrack:

Covid Pandemic Reduced Carbon Emissions; Won't Make A Difference

 Carbon emissions declined in 2020 due to the Covid 
pandemic, but blip won't really have an
effect on climate change. 

We got an update from academics on now much the Covid pandemic has reduced carbon emissions. 

The "good" news is that carbon emissions plunged in 2020 by a record amount.  

The very bad news is two-fold.  The reduction in carbon emissions is basically a drop in the bucket and won't have much if any effect on climate change.

Worse, the price we paid for this year's carbon reductions was so, so not worth the price: Hundreds of thousands killed by the pandemic, and millions upon millions of people suffering because of it. 

According to CNBC:

"Global greenhouse gas emissions plunged by roughly 2.4 billion tons this year, a 7% drop from 2019 and the largest decline on record......according to new research from the University of East Anglia, the University of Exeter and the Global Carbon Project."

When Covid-related lockdowns were most prevalent in the spring, carbon emissions plunged by 17 percent, but recovered to nearly the same levels as 2019 later in the year as restrictions eased, at least temporarily. 

All this accounts for the 7% drop. 

Medical experts are hopeful that next year, with Covid vaccines being distributed, the pandemic will ease and perhaps disappear altogether by Christmas 2021. 

With that, carbon emissions are expected to rise again.  Climate activists are urging governments and industry use the anticipated 2021 economic recovery as an excuse to switch to cleaner energy sources as things ramp up. 

Even with this year's reduction in carbon emissions, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will continue to rise. Think of CO2 in the atmosphere as water filling a bathtub.  In 2020, the bathtub faucet was turned down, but was still running. That means the bathtub is still filling up, just more slowly. 

To really help with climate change, we'd need to cut an additional 2 billion tons of carbon emissions yearly for the next decade, according to the BBC.  At that point, maybe the drain in the "bathtub" would be partially opened, allowing our metaphorical water (atmospheric CO2 concentrations) to start receding. 

"The atmospheric CO2 level, and consequently the world;s climate, will only stabilize when global CO2 emissions are near zero, " lead researcher Prof. Pierre Friedlingstein from the University of Exeter UK told the BBC.

Meanwhile, the effects of climate change continue to trouble the world.  This year is set to be among the top 5 hottest years on record. The rest of the top 5 have been since 2015.  Disasters likely made worse by climate change, such as intense hurricanes and wildfires, have caused billions in dollars in damage. 

In 2021, many experts say we'll finally start to see some real relief from the Covid pandemic. Unfortunately, the effects of climate change will probably continue to worsen.

 

More Warm News: November Was Among Nation's Warmest

You should expect some blue (colder than average) regions
in some parts of the United States in any given month.
In November, 2020, nobody really got cold

You know late autumn here in Vermont was quite warm.  It turns out we shared in the warmth with the rest of the United States.

In the contiguous Lower 48, November was the fourth warmest on record, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.  

One remarkable aspect of the warmth was how widespread it was.  I could find only three or four isolated counties in Idaho, Oregon and northern California that were marginally cooler than average. Everyone else was at or above normal.

There were plenty of record warm moments in various cities across the United States. Here in Vermont, as previously reported, Burlington had the most 70-degree days in a single November with four of 'em.  Chicago set a record with seven days in November, 2020 with 70 degree weather. 

Normally hot Phoenix, Arizona could not escape summer. It was 92 degrees there on November 17, the latest on record it's been at or above 90 there. 

So far, December is also running well above normal for much of the United States.  (We're warmer than average in Vermont so far in December, too, with another mild spell due Friday through the weekend).

We should get more reliable world-wide data for November within a week or so.  It's widely expected that November 2020 will be among the world's warmest on record, if not THE warmest.

As Advertised, Winter Has Arrived In Vermont; More Coming

Snow dusting the Christmas tree we just picked up 
yesterday as it waits for us to bring it in today
from my truck in St. Albans, Vermont. Snow and
more normal winter weather is making things look
appropriate for the season. 

A little over a week ago, when we Vermonters were basking in unseasonable, record warmth, we promised that we would gradually sink into winter by now. 

Just like that, it has come to pass. We're not getting anything unusual for December. But it's wintry. 

We've had three days in a row with temperatures remaining below freezing. Most of us have a nice white dusting of snow on the ground now. 

Roads were icy for Wednesday morning's commute, and the air had a bite to it yesterday. Here in St. Albans, Vermont, we collected about an inch of snow. So did Burlington. 

Yep, it's winter.  Although this is a fairly mild version of it, and it will stay on the reasonable side. You should still expect more seasonal challenges and joys in the coming days. 

Starting now.  Most of us are waking up to some light snow falling, and that will be the state of affairs fro the rest of the day and into tonight. 

This won't be a blockbuster storm by any stretch of the imagination.  It's coming in from the west, so it doesn't really have a great supply of moisture. Plus this storm is weak. 

Even so, it's got enough energy and spunk to crank out a storm total of one to four inches over most of the Green Mountain State by tomorrow morning. Some of the higher elevations could close in on six inches with this thing, says the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

There will be the usual problems with roads this morning and for this evening's commute. Again, nothing extreme, but you should slow down, keep as much space between your car and everyone else's as possible, and just be sane and attentive while driving. 

It's not all that cold out, and it will stay on the relatively mild side. That sets the stage for the next challenge. 

After more flurries Thursday, then some sun and warmish weather Friday (highs near 40!), we get into the next storm. 

The next one is no huge thing either, but it will give us another challenge we'll need to get used to: Freezing rain. Ugh. 

Now, this won't be a disaster, the trees won't be caving in under the weight of ice or anything that dramatic. 

But there seems to be increasing chances that freezing rain will turn roads, sidewalks, driveways and such pretty icy Saturday night and Sunday morning.  This is especially true east of the Green Mountains, where low level cold air is more likely to linger.

The Champlain Valley is a more likely to just see a cold rain. However, I expect the experts to refine this weekend forecast as we get closer to the event, so stay tuned for updates and changes.

You know the drill, though. Every year we have to deal with such icy weather several times per winter.

One thing we haven't seen yet is true Arctic cold.  The coldest it's been in Burlington so far this season is 18 degrees, back in mid-November.  Pretty tolerable, for sure. 

I don't really see many signs of any subzero cold coming in anytime soon. I mentioned yesterday that Canada is extremely warm currently by their standards, so there's no real supply of bitter cold up there. 

Frigid air is likely to finally build up in northern and central Canada over the next week to ten days, which is what you would expect in December. 

However, forecasts call for a continued fast, mostly west to east flow across the United States. That would tend to block most of the frigid air off to our north, with few chance for any of it to break loose and head south towards us. 

If long range forecasts hold, that would mean no subzero cold in Vermont except in the coldest hollows between now and Christmas.  There's also no real sign of any sustained periods of super balmy weather either, which should give some hope to winter sports enthusiasts. 

That is IF the current forecasts hold.  As I've said repeatedly, long range forecasts can be unreliable.  Don't be surprised if there's a surprise or two.