Vermont Afternoon Update: Evening Rush To Be Awful Beneath NW VT Winter Weather Advisory

Updated National Weather Service snow forecast has two to
five inches coming down this evening in northwest 
Vermont. The evening commute will be awful
A little more snow should grace us tomorrow, too.

 As expected, precipitation was rapidly blossoming northward through Vermont as of 2:30 p.m. and will engulf all of the state by late this afternoon. 

Things are looking even worse than they did this morning for northwest Vermont. So, a winter weather advisory is now up for northwest Vermont - Chittenden, Franklin, Lamoille and Orleans County. 

It should start in earnest around the Champlain Valley by around 3 or 4 pm. It was already drizzling as of 2 pm. 

It should change to snow by 5 p.m. if not sooner, with an interval of mixed precipitation before then. 

A pretty good temperature contrast has set up today in Vermont. At 2 p.m., it was 34 in Burlington and 51 in St. Johnsbury. Cold air is draining southward down the Champlain Valley very readily. So it won't take much for any rain to change to ice, then snow. 

Accumulations in the winter weather advisory zone should from 2 to 5 inches, with possibly locally higher amounts near the mountains. The most snow looks like it will be in Franklin County along and east of Interstate 89, and the Green Mountains from Route 2 north. In those areas, at least 4 or 5 inches should accumulate by late tonight. 

Right around Burlington, they're going for two inches. Which doesn't seem like much, but the timing of the snow couldn't be worse, which is what makes this so "special." 

A Vermont state highway truck and driver seen at a St.
Albans service station early Monday afternoon. Probably
prepping for the impending rush hour snow burst today. 

The heaviest snow will probably come down between 5 and 8 p.m., so the drive home in the Champlain Valley and other parts of northwest Vermont is going to be awful. If you can sneak away from work right now, by 3 or 4 p.m. at the latest, that will help. 

I expect some serious traffic jams with this snow. We're not used to driving in snow, since we really haven't had any yet. (Sunday morning's snow was so minor I don't count it.) 

This will also be largely a wet snow, which is particularly slippery and tends to compact into an especially slick version of ice beneath car and truck tires. 

There are a few trees in urban areas like Burlington, Winooski and St. Albans that still have some leaves clinging to them. The wet snow collecting on the leaves, and a steady north wind makes me suspect there might be a few power outages to add to the delight this evening will become. 

In warmer parts of eastern Vermont, by the time we get a changeover to snow later this evening, the best moisture will be starting to exit. 

Snow showers will keep going tomorrow amid the forecast cold and blustery conditions, so there will be a little additional accumulation. 

If you're like me, a Franklin County resident who has not completed all his outdoor autumn garden chores, you're screwed. The snow that accumulates with this evening's mess might not fully melt away for more than a week. 

Especially since we have other chances of snow showers through the rest of the week.   Of course, I'll have updates tomorrow morning, or sooner than that if needed. 

A Brief Monday Evening Vermont (Snow!) Update

Most of tomorrow's snow will be in the mountains
But that inch or so of snow you see in this forecast
for places like the Champlain Valley will be timed
just perfectly to screw up the 
Tuesday morning commute

 Just figured I'd update you quickly so you can plan your Tuesday morning.

Because the roads are going to crappy, snowy and maybe icy for your morning commute. 

We're still not expecting much snow in most of Vermont late tonight and tomorrow, except in the mountains. 

The amount of snow isn't the problem. The real problem is the timing and intensity of the snow might well end up being the worst possible combination. 

If the timing in the forecast holds, the combination of a burst of heavy or at least heavy-ish precipitation,  a rain to snow scenario in many spots and a rapid drop in temperatures will hit just perfectly for the Tuesday morning commute.

The disturbance coming in will have a pretty potent cold front with it. As that cold front blusters in,  it will have a fairly narrow but heavy band of precipitation with it. In the Champlain Valley, it might start out as rain, but quick turn into a snow squall-like thing.

So, the roads will quickly get covered with a slush coating of snow. As this happens, temperatures will take a quick nosedive and go below freezing very quickly. So the slush will turn to ice on many surfaces. 

It doesn't take much snow to cause a scene. A half inch to an inch will do it. 

Add to this scenario the idiots driving 80 mph on the ice because they're "late" for work and it's a recipe for a mess on the roads. Of course, they don't consider that if they hit three other vehicles in the process, they'll really be late for work. Or worse. 

If you're planning on being anywhere on Interstate 89 and maybe Interstate 91 and some other Vermont highways tomorrow morning, plan on being stuck in a traffic jam as crashes gum up the works. 

The best guess is this will come into the Champlain Valley between 5 and 7 a.m. and then move west to east across the rest of Vermont between 7 and 11 a.m.

The rest of the day will not be nice.  There might be a lull after that main blast goes through during the morning commute in which the sun might even make an appearance and the wind will temporarily diminish slightly.

But the rest of the day will feature clouds, gusty winds, snow showers and temperatures that will hover right around the freezing mark. 

The snow showers won't add up to much in the valleys, but the Green Mountain are still looking at what amounts to a moderate-sized snowstorm. The ski areas in the central and northern Green Mountain should see a good four to eight inches of snow before things taper off later Tuesday night. 

All this really isn't that unusual for early April. It's just too bad we couldn't time this little late slap of winter to make it more convenient for us. But Vermont weather is seldom convenient. 

Burst Of Snow Interfering With Tuesday Northern Vermont Evening Commute

Traffic camera grab for Interstate 89 in Georgia shows
pretty gnarly road conditions as a burst of "warm front"
snow passes through. Roads in northern Vermont
look like they will be pretty slick this evening. 

 A warm front associated with that large storm in the center of the nation is giving a surprisingly hefty burst of wet snow to northern Vermont. 

As of 4:30 p.m. a full inch of new snow had accumulated here in St. Albans. Traffic cameras show iffy driving conditions in Vermont, north of Route 2.

As of 4:30 p.m. traffic cameras showed it had just started snowing along Interstate 89 in Colchester and road conditions didn't look that bad - yet. 

As you headed north along the Interstate, things were just beginning to deteriorate along I-89 at the Lamoille River bridge in Milton. By the time you get up to Georgia, I-89 was obviously snow-covered and slick.

Since the snow is headed east, almost everyone along and north of Route 2 will see at least some snow and likely slick roads late this afternoon and this evening. 

The atmosphere continues to warm, and some of this snow might still flip to rain. 

But still, you might be surprised by some ice and slush under your tires as you head home from work. Be careful out there. I'm sure we'll have some slide offs, a few crashes and some delays on the highways.  If you were planning on going somewhere in northern Vermont but really don't have to, it might be wise to stay home this evening. 

This is all a precursor to the warm rain we're having tomorrow. I'll have much more on that in Wednesday morning's post. 

 

Vermont Monday Storm Update: Will Be Interesting Commute Home This Evening For Many Of Us

As of 4:30 p.m. Monday, Route 58 in Lowell, Vermont
looked pretty bad amid heavy falling snow. Those
conditions were spreading southward further into
Vermont as a cold front arrives just in time
for your evening commute. 

 It started snowing here at my perch in St. Albans, Vermont at around 3:15 this afternoon, setting the stage for a crappy drive home from work or school. 

The snow here almost immediately began to come down at a decent clip and almost immediately began to stick, despite temperatures in the mid-30s when the snow started. 

That is a clue that things will get messy for the rest of the day and the evening across much of Vermont, New York and eventually New Hampshire .

For the late afternoon and evening, temperatures are probably kind of marginal - not far from 32 degrees   -so the snow will be rather wet and heavy, even in far northern Vermont.  

The further south you go in Vermont, the more likely you'll see some rain or freezing rain mixing in for awhile.  

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says the most likely place for rain or a mix of rain, freezing rain and snow for the next few hours is very roughly along and south of Route 2. Eventually, the mix will change to snow everywhere this evening.

But by the time things switch over to snow in far southern Vermont, the cold front and best moisture will already be past us.  Most low elevations in the state's southernmost counties should see an inch or less of snow out of this. 

In the northern half Vermont, the snow could come down pretty hard at times this evening. It already was late this afternoon in some areas of the far north. 

As of 4:30 p.m., Interstate 89 in Colchester, Vermont near
Burlington was fine and dandy, with very little snow on the
ground, a sharp contrast to high elevations in 
northern Vermont.  Road conditions will deteriorate
here and elsewhere in Vermont where snow hadn't quite
started falling yet before dark, 

As of 4:15 p.m. traffic cameras in places like along Route 242 in Westfield and Route 58 in Lowell were showing nasty road conditions and what appeared to be heavy snow falling.

  Up in these areas, this evening's little storm is adding to a pretty deep snow cover.  As of this morning, Westfield reported a snow depth of 21 inches and a higher spot in Greensboro had 22 inches. 

These bad driving conditions were slowly spreading south and east. The later this evening you drive home, the worse it will be. 

Overall, in the winter weather advisory zone in northern Vermont away from Lake Champlain, the forecast still calls for three to six inches of new snow, with maybe a little more than that on high spots like Jay Peak. 

The National Weather Service is going with about two inches of new snow in communities like Burlington, Montpelier and St. Johnsbury. The little bit of rain or very wet snow there will keep totals down a bit.  

Away from the Canadian border and the Champlain Valley the amount of snow we're getting this evening doesn't really quality for winter advisories. So the National Weather Service released a special weather statement warning of a difficult commute over the next few hours. 

Later tonight, any remaining snowfall will be lighter and fluffier as temperatures crash once again.  

Heads Up Vermont: This Morning's Commute Might Be A Slog. Wednesday Might Not Be Much Better

National Weather Service radar at around 5 a.m. today.
The green is fairly heavy snow. That smudge of dark green
and yellow southeast of Burlington is an intense snow
squall. The purple outline depicts a snow squall
warning that was in effect at the time of this radar image.

A line of ferocious snow squalls swept southeastward through northern and central Vermont this morning, dropping a quick inch or two of snow and turning wet or slushy roads into ice skating rinks just in time for your drive to work this morning. 

The squalls will keep heading into southern Vermont by around 7 or 8 p.m., so that part of the state will deal with poor visibility and rapid changes in road conditions.

The squalls might weaken just a tad by the time they reach southern Vermont, but will still be dangerous. 

Meanwhile, the aftereffects of the squalls will be the main problem north of Route 4. Temperatures just after midnight were a little above freezing in many areas. The initial bits of snow just ahead of the snow squalls melted into water on many roads.

Then the snow squalls hit with rapidly falling temperatures and heavy, wind driven, blinding bursts of snow. That water on the roads froze, then snow fell on top of it.

The snow squalls were moving fast enough to only leave an inch or two of new snow in most areas, but that was more than enough to make the roads slick. 

I noticed road crews were out here in St. Albans shortly after the worst of the squall had passed and I'm sure that will be true everywhere else in Vermont.  But there's only so much they can do with crashing temperatures. 

Main roads might improve some through the morning commute, but they won't be entirely cleaned up.

Take it easy, take it slow early this morning. 

This Afternoon

The good news is the snow showers will be out of here this afternoon and roads should be in pretty good shape. Expect a cold day. As noted, we already had our high temperatures for the day. It'll stay in the teens all day if we're lucky and a stiff north wind will make it feel like it's below zero.

But there's no rest for the weary.  Tomorrow's trip to and from work won't be fun either.

Wednesday.

National Weather Service snowfall forecast through 
Thursday morning. Almost all the snow predicted is
from an Alberta clipper storm coming through on
Wednesday. Most of us can expect two to four
inches of fluff on of this one. 

We're on a temperature roller coaster as several quick weather systems come through with snow or even something else possible on Friday. But we're getting ahead of ourselves.  

The crash in temperatures will halt later this evening as an Alberta clipper comes in with clouds and snow. 

Alberta clippers are those fast moving storms that come in northwest to southeast from near Alberta, through or north of the Great Lakes then into our neck of the woods.  

Temperatures will moderate into the 20s tomorrow, but it will also snow pretty much all day. 

The snow will get here before dawn, and it will still be on the cold side in the morning. 

Even though the snow will be coming down lightly, it will still stick effectively to the roads. The plows will be out but it'll be a slow commute once again. The trip home in the evening will feature light snow, too, so even that won't be so great. 

Most of us can expect about two to four inches of fluff out of Wednesday's system, with a little more than that in the mountains. 

Behind this little snowfall, the temperatures will crash once again, getting down to near or even a little below zero by Thursday morning

Thursday And Beyond

The roller coaster continues big time. A break in the weather comes Thursday afternoon as sunshine returns (hopefully) and temperatures mostly stay in the teens. It looks like temperatures will actually start to rise overnight Thursday ahead of our next quick hitter. 

Friday is a wild card.  Another Alberta Clipper will be coming in from the west, while what was the rain storm that tamped down the Southern California wildfires lurks to our south and heads east toward the Atlantic Ocean,

The Friday Alberta clipper might suppress the wetter, southern storm to our south so that it misses us. Or, the clipper  might help draw the southern storm closer to us, giving us somewhat heavier precipitation.

 We don't know yet. Friday will probably be warmer again, possibly near freezing. But we don't know whether we'll see just a little snow and a few raindrops or a somewhat more substantial storm.

Watch this space for updates.

Then, once again, temperatures get frigid again Friday night and Saturday. Then, rinse and repeat as yet another Alberta Clipper comes in next Sunday and Monday with another modest warm up and probably another couple inches of snow. 

I did say in yesterday's post that the weather pattern around here was finally getting a little more exciting, and all this is your proof.

Sunday Evening Vermont Storm Update: The Mess Is Near, And Some Slight Changes

The very latest snow accumulation forecast map from the
National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 
They've trimmed back snow totals slightly compared to
this morning's forecast, but this storm is still going to
have a lot of impacts.

 The fairly gusty south winds from this morning have turned to a light breeze from the north late this afternoon, which marks the beginning of our long-awaited nasty storm. 

Those north winds are making temperatures start to fall, but it won't get cold enough for snow until midnight or a little after in the Champlain Valley and in the wee hours of the morning further east and south. 

As was inevitable, there have been some subtle changes in the forecast. That will continue through the duration of the storm.

 There probably will be a few surprises one way or another somewhere in Vermont. Anything you read for the rest of this post isn't cast in stone. All winter storms throw curve balls at us. 

The trend in the forecast late this afternoon has fortunately been to lower the snow totals just a bit compared to this morning's forecast. I don't know if that's part of a welcome trend that would lower the impacts of the storm, or just a minor last minute adjustment based on the latest computer models.

Though slightly less snow would mean slightly less snow loading on trees and power lines, that shouldn't matter too much. I still expect quite a few power outages on Monday pretty much statewide. 

Unlike in the last two storms, lower elevations might have the biggest problems with power outages on Monday. Not as much snow will accumulate in the valleys compared to the mountains. But the valley snow will be particularly wet and slushy - that wet cement I keep talking about. 

I'm getting ahead of myself. Let's take it a step at a time, chronologically, as I did this morning.

RAINFALL

So far, this afternoon's  rain hasn't been too intense. As of 5 p.m., rainfall in Vermont seems to be around a quarter inch so far, give or take. The rain will probably pick up in intensity this evening, but the flood threat has really gotten low.  

At least here in Vermont. Eastern and southern New England are in the cross hairs for some possibly significant flooding. Vermont's problem remains snow.

Some towns in Vermont could get an inch of rain before things switch over to snow. Since the switch-over will be later in southeastern Vermont and that part of the state is going to be in deeper moisture from the storm, rainfall totals will be higher there, so as a precaution a flood watch remains in effect for southern Vermont. 

SNOWFALL

The central and northern Green Mountains continue to look like they will be in the sweet spot for snow. Those areas are in for a foot, maybe a foot and a half of snow. Which will be great for the ski areas, as snow lost in the thawing today will mostly be replaced.  

Dark and rainy in downtown St. Albans, Vermont Sunday
afternoon. By dawn tomorrow, this same scene will'
look very, very snowy. 

Snow accumulations in the valleys are harder to predict, because it depends upon on how "warm" it stays through this, and how long the heaviest snow rates last.

When the snow comes down really hard, it tends to cool the air a bit so that it sticks better. When the snow is lighter, temperatures could bump up to just above freezing, limiting further accumulations. 

Unfortunately. the heaviest snow looks like it will come between 2 and 10 a.m. Monday. 

That would give snow plenty of time to accumulate ahead of Monday morning's commute, and continue to pile up quickly when people are trying to drive to work.  

Power outages will likely be rapidly ramping up during this time, too, as heavy, wet snow accumulates fast. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says that predicting how much snow will pile up is especially tricky in the Champlain Valley. They expect a sharp gradient between the immediate lakeshore and the foothills of the Green Mountains to the east.

The immediate shore of Lake Champlain might only get two to four inches of slush. 

Along and just east of Route 7, at this time the expectation is four to eight inches. Once you get into eastern Chittenden and Franklin counties, we're talking close to a foot.

Overall, the biggest adjustment to snowfall forecasts is in the Champlain Valley. Forecasts broadly call for five to nine inches in places like Burlington and St. Albans. That's three or four inches less than what the forecast called for this morning. 

That said, those cities could still get socked with more snow than that, or they could be pleasantly surprised with less. Flip your coins, boys and girls, it could go either way. 

Just as in the last two storms, temperatures will be marginal, within a degree or two either side of the freezing mark. The last two storms favored snow in mid and high elevations. This time, the valleys are in play. But if the temperature winds up a couple degrees warmer than expected, the snowfall forecast is a bust, and only a few inches will fall.

If it's a bit cooler than forecast, the snow will be deeper. But it would be marginally less wet and sloppy, which would help the power line issues.

It's still looking like southern Vermont won't be as bad with the snow with this system, but higher elevations can expect a good six inches of snow with power failure risks there, too. The lower Connecticut River valley floor looks pretty safe from any major snow accumulations. 

Bottom line: Expect a real mess pretty much statewide Monday morning. My advice from this morning still holds: If you can stay home Monday morning, then stay home. Call in sick if you have to. If your boss whines, blame me. 

Power up your devices this evening, and drag out those LED candles in case you'll need them Monday morning. Unfortunately, this is the type of storm that could lead to some people being without electricity for a couple or even a few days. 

The good news in that department is it won't get super frigid after the storm passes Monday evening. High temperatures Tuesday through the end of the week should be more or less in the 30s, with lows in the upper teens and 20s.

Yeah, that's chilly. But at least it won't be below zero, so your pipes have a shot at not freezing and bursting if you lose power for a few days.  After all, it could easily get below zero this time of year. But in this instance, it won't.

After this storm goes by, the weather will get mercifully quiet for a few days at least. A weak storm and cold front might dust us with an inch or two of snow Tuesday night or Wednesday, but that's no big deal.

Temperatures are also forecast to stay at or above normal well into mid-month and possibly beyond, so that's nice. 

By the way, this all could be worse. Around this time in 1952, a similar storm struck Vermont, but it was more intense than this one.

Temperatures started out in the 50s with quite a lot of rain on December 11, 1952. Then it got sharply colder, but temperatures bottomed out at around 32 degrees late on December 11 and during the day December 12. 

The end result in Burlington was 2.75 inches of rain and melted snow and 13.4 inches of heavy, wet snow.  Two feet of wet snow buried St. Albans. Rain and melted snow amounted to 3.25 inches in St. Albans, more than normally falls in the entire month of December.   

I doubt this episode will be as bad as 1952. I'm always looking on the bright side, right?

. 

Vermont's First Winter Weather Advisory Of Season As Thursday Morning Looks Gross

A winter weather advisory is up for Vermont Thursday due
to expected snow and mixed precipitation, especially
during the morning commute 

 It doesn't take much snow or ice to turn the roads awful in Vermont. That's especially true early in the season when we're not used to it. And some people haven't gotten their snow tires yet. 

So it is Thursday, when we will be under a winter weather advisory in the Green Mountain State for snow and some sleet and freezing rain. 

This won't be a huge storm, but the timing is lousy.  Snow should move in before dawn and continue into the morning commute hours. (The snow might start a little later in the Northeast Kingdom).

During that commute. there's a good chance the snow will mix with or change to sleet, freezing rain and eventually rain. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington notes this morning there's some disagreement in the computer models about how much of this will be sleet and freezing rain. Some suggest it will be mostly a snow to rain transition, especially in the Champlain Valley, so there wouldn't be too much freezing rain there. 

Other models lean toward more mixed precipitation statewide, and those models at this point seem to be making more sense to most meteorologists out there. To be on the safe side, expect at least some ice after a quick burst of snow early tomorrow morning. 

The bottom line seems to indicate an inch or less of snow, followed by perhaps a tenth of an inch of ice. Some places could get as much as nearly a quarter inch of ice, other places will get only a trace.  

And so, expect a lot of icy patches at least on the roads early Thursday.  This will be an especially dangerous morning as a lot of motorists will be lulled into a false sense of security.  In many areas, ground temperatures are warm, so many main roads might be largely just wet or a little slushy. 

But bridges and overpasses will freeze. People will be cruising along on wet pavement at top speed, only to arrive on an icy overpass and lose control. 

Keep in mind some schools might close or have delayed openings, so check on that before you leave with the kiddos in the morning. 

The schmutz will change to a cold, light rain, first in the Champlain Valley then spreading eastward through the rest of Vermont during the afternoon. The evening commute will be a lot safer than the morning. But it will be an ugly, miserable day for sure. 

From an overall climate perspective, this type of storm isn't at all unusual for this time of year. It happens a lot in early to mid November, but the first messy storm of the season always still comes as a little bit of a shock. 

The trend will be toward colder than normal temperatures through the weekend, but very little snow or rain after tomorrow. 

Thursday Evening Forecast: Still Icky Icy Northern Vermont Friday

This afternoon's ice forecast from the National Weather Service 
in South Burlington. They've slightly reduced the forecast 
ice accumulation, but areas in orange can still expect at least
a tenth of an inch of ice more than enough to cause travel
problems on the roads tomorrow morning. 

 Since it was above freezing today and the snow had disappeared from my yard in St. Albans, Vermont, I was out frantically trying to get outdoor work done before winter returns (I'm trying to clean up after we took down several dying trees). 

I didn't realize this when I got up this morning, but Burlington had another record high today. Not long after midnight, it was 56 degrees, besting the old record of 55 in 2016.

I could feel the temperatures slowly drop this afternoon while I was outside, setting the stage for that icky, icy, miserable forecast we have for Friday. But at least I got a little bit of work done before the inevitable return to winter.

Which is definitely coming late tonight and Friday morning. 

As anticipated, we do have a few changes to the forecast. It'll still be a mess tomorrow, though. Especially in northwestern Vermont. 

According to the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, total ice accumulation looks to be a little less than what was forecast this morning. This development doesn't change the fact that the roads during the Friday morning commute will be atrocious in the Champlain Valley. 

But at least it reduces the risk of power failures.

Especially in the far northern parts of Vermont, it's beginning to look like there might be a bit more sleet and snow than forecasters thought in earlier forecasts, and a little bit less freezing rain. Along and north of Route 15 it looks like a two to three inch coating of snow and sleet will pile up atop a thin layer of ice from freezing rain.

 Roughly south and east of a Middlebury to St. Johnsbury line, it looks like precipitation might stay as plain rain until around dawn. Then it will get icy.  In the Champlain Valley unfortunately it should get icy in the predawn darkness.

Southern Vermont will mostly escape the ice and snow, and just get a glancing blow, if that, from the return to winter on Friday.

Especially for those of you in the Champlain Valley, it still looks like a good idea to try and work from home Friday, if you can. If you must head out, get an early start, and expect a slow trip. And watch out for the usual idiots on the road who have somehow not figured out how to drive in ice and snow, despite the fact this is northern New England and we should expect this sort of thing. 

Everything should change to light snow by afternoon in most spots and that snow will dwindle off to flurries by evening.

It still looks like some very changeable weather Saturday through next week, but at least at this point there's no gigantic storms in the forecast. At least for here in Vermont. 

Sunday Evening Storm Update: NWS Has Upped Vermont Snow Totals, But Bust Potential Higher Than Usual

The Sunday afternoon National Weather Service snow
forecast maps have upped expected totals a little bit
statewide, but uncertainty surprisingly remains on this. 

 Weather radar as of 5 p.m. this Sunday afternoon already had streaks of snow coming in aloft, but it will take time for the air to moisten up for the snow to reach the ground. But later this evening, it will be snowing throughout Vermont. 

ACCUMULATIONS

Overall, forecasts have shifted from this morning, given southern and central Vermont a little more snow than earlier forecast. In broad terms, expected snowfall statewide has increased by one to four inches since this morning. 

The winter storm warning, which means at least seven inches of snow is expected, has been expanded northward to encompass Rutland and Windsor counties. 

A winter weather advisory for more or less four to six inches of snow covers the rest of Vermont except Orleans, Franklin, Grand Isle and the western half of Chittenden County. 

In those northwestern Vermont areas, the current forecast calls for one to three inches of new snow. 

It looks like the storm totals in the forecast have been pushed up a bit because this storm really has a lot of moisture to work with. The bulk of the moisture won't make it as far north as Vermont, but the juicy air to the south will really power the moisture enough to dump some pretty heavy snow, at least in southern Vermont. 

If the forecast is accurate, a foot of new snow could grace the slopes of ski areas like Stratton, Mount Snow and Okemo by the time this blows out of here by Monday night. 

Central Vermont ski areas should do OK, too, with a decent six inches or more in many places from Killington to Smugglers. Places like Jay Peak will get some, which is nice, but Jay Peak has been doing a little better with snow than points south, so that's OK.

QUESTION MARKS

Notice I said if the forecast is accurate. 

Tonight's storm has more question marks than usual for a storm that is set to begin within a few hours. Forecasters seem like they really aren't super sure whether the bands of moderate to relatively heavy snow will set up in the southeastern two thirds of Vermont overnight and Monday morning. 

The web site for the National Weather Service in South Burlington has this awesome page that deals with uncertainty levels of winter storms that pass through here. 

The page gives the map of expected snowfall. That's the map I keep posting in almost all the snow storm forecast posts I put up in this here blog thingy. 

A rather ominous, gloomy pre-storm sky late Sunday 
afternoon in St. Albans, Vermont. Here in northwestern'
Vermont, not much snow is forecast, but southern parts
of the state could easily see 6-12 inches by Monday night. 

This page also includes what I call 10 percent maps. These maps offer what the ten percent chances are of a lower end storm or a higher end storm. Put more simply, the maps depict scenarios if the storm turns out to be a real bust and nothingburger, or if it really over-performs. 

The spread among these maps is wider than I usually see when a storm is just about to start. For instance, the main forecast map predicts 10.2 inches of new snow from this storm in Manchester. But the other maps show it could go as low as 6 or as high as 16 inches in Manchester. 

Similarly, the official forecast calls for 5.5 inches of new snow in Montpelier but could go as low as two inches or as high as 10 inches.

The chances of these extremes are low, but not zero.

THE SNOW AND YOU

In any event, if the forecast plays out as expected, snow fall rates would come up to something like one inch per hour, especially south and east of a Rutland to Montpelier to St. Johnsbury line. That's heavy enough to make it hard for Vermont's crack team of snow plow operators to keep up with the storm.

Slippery roads are going to happen state wide during the Monday morning commute, and it will be worse the further south you go. If you have to drive Monday morning, especially in central and southern Vermont, allow a lot of extra time and watch out for the snow idiots on the roads. 

I'm expecting quite a few school closings in southern Vermont with this.

By Monday evening, it will be all over except for some scattered snow showers, and the usual digging out.  

A couple pieces of good news: Unlike so many storms this year, there won't be much in the way of mixed precipitation. 

Since temperatures will be in the upper 20s to around 30, the snow won't be as dry and powdery as you'd expect in a Vermont January. But, it won't be as wet and soggy as we've seen this winter in Vermont. That means if we do see any power outages out of this storm, they will be few and far between. 

THEN WHAT?

Starting yesterday, it's gotten a little colder in Vermont, but it's still warmer than average for the depth of winter. This state of affairs will largely continue this week, though some days will actually be down to average for January.

A cold front Tuesday will throw down a handful of snow showers, or even a brief snow squall or two, especially north, but the accumulations won't amount to much. Wednesday will turn out to be the coldest day of the week, but it will be comfortably in the 20s during the day, 

We're still expected a pretty substantial storm Wednesday and Thursday, but I'm not going to get into it here. 

After that, we stay in an active weather pattern. Storms won't necessarily be big, but there will be frequent moments of us getting a quick slap of light snow. Though the coldest air will stay north in Canada for now, conditions after Thursday feature a greater chance of light snow and a lesser chance of mixed crap. 

It looks like we've finally fallen into a pattern in which Vermont's snow deficit will take some hits. We're still not going to get epic snows, at least for now, but at least some flakes are coming out of the Vermont sky for a change. 

Wednesday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Some Winter Watches Upgraded To Warnings; Long Storm Likely

A new snow forecast map issued by the National Weather
Service office in South Burlington. Click on the map to make
it bigger and easier to see. Compared to this morning's map.
expected snow totals have increased somewhat. 

 As they always do, the National Weather Service in South Burlington has been refining their forecast for what will probably be the first major winter storm of the season in Vermont late Thursday into Saturday.  

Also, as expected, there have been some changes to the forecast. Most of those changes favor snow lovers. But that doesn't mean everybody gets a huge dump of snow.  We still have question marks and red flags with this storm forecast.

You know, all those meteorologists trying to forecast this storm seem so cool and collected. But I bet they're pulling their hair out trying to get this one right. And drinking, perhaps heavily, after their work shifts. This is a tough forecast. 

The winter storm watch has been upgraded to a winter storm warning for central Vermont from Lamoille County all the way down to the Massachusetts border. In those areas, confidence has increased enough that a pretty decent dump of snow seems inevitable from late Thursday night into Saturday.

Those of you in the winter storm warning zone can expect 9 to 18 inches of snow, but some favored spots could end up with two feet of new snow by Saturday afternoon. That's at least according to the latest thoughts from the NWS Burlington.

If things pan out as currently expected this will really be a great high elevation snow, perfect for Vermont's ski industry as we gear up for the Christmas holiday. The resorts have been making snow, and they've gotten a little natural stuff in recent days, but they can really use the boost from a big dump, and the publicity surrounding said big dump.

I'm sure the marketing departments at Vermont's resorts are working overtime on this to get the word out, if this dump actually happens. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, we're still under a winter storm watch, not a warning. The Northeast Kingdom was not under any kind of alert this morning, but that winter storm watch has now been expanded to include them as well.

It makes sense that the National Weather Service hasn't upgraded that watch, as there's still some questions.  Uh, some questions? Many questions. Like exactly where the storm goes, how much moisture it has to play with, how warm it will get and the precise wind directions. That'll all greatly influence how much snow any particular place gets.

(Remember, a winter storm watch means conditions are favorable for a winter storm. A winter storm warning means a big, noticeable storm is pretty much inevitable).

In general, though, the predicted amount of snow in the forecast area wide is a little more than what was in the forecast this morning. 

What follows is what the National Weather Service in South Burlington thinks will happen with this storm. As you know, new data could make them change their minds and come up with a different scenario for this storm. But here's what the thinking is for now:

The initial thump of snow still looks like it wants to come through from a little after midnight Friday through the Friday morning commute.  The morning commute looks like it could be a huge mess virtually statewide, with wet snow coming down at a rate of one to two inches per hour.

You might want to start working with your boss to just work at home instead of driving to the office, if possible. I'd expect a fair amount of school closings, too. So plan on entertaining the kiddos at home. I'd just make them shovel the driveway.

During the afternoon, it looks like the moisture feed coming off the Atlantic would come almost directly from the east, or maybe southeast. That might keep the snow going full blast on the eastern slopes of the Greens, and the summits. That's a big part of the logic behind the new winter storm warning in central Vermont.

In this scenario, the Green Mountains would block a lot of the moisture from getting into the Champlain Valley, and the low elevations in southwestern Vermont all the way down to Bennington. In these places, the snow would taper off to just light stuff or nothing at all. it will probably warm up enough to also create periods of light rain and/or drizzle in these valleys. Sounds lovely. 

For snow lovers in the Champlain Valley, there is some hope. Friday night and Saturday, the wind will shift to the north, and moisture will still be feeding in from the Atlantic from this slow-moving nor'easter. 

When you get a set up like that, the air coming in from Quebec gets squeezed between the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. When the air gets squeezed like that, it has to rise to have room. Rising air encourages moisture to cool, condense and fall as snow. If things work out just right, that would mean several inches of snow for the Champlain Valley Friday night and Saturday. 

This is still expected to be a wet, heavy snow, especially at elevations below 2,000 feet or so. That's most of us, frankly. If the snow comes down as hard as some forecasts indicate, expect at least scattered power outages. 

Get your LED candles ready Thursday night just in case and charge your devices.

There's still a ton of wild cards as of this Wednesday evening that might make this forecast a bust, or at least create some major changes.

As I mentioned this morning, the American computer models insist on taking the main nor'easter well off the coast, which would diminish how much snow we'd get. As of late this afternoon, the American model was still insisting this would be a case. That's at odds with all the other models, which say the storm will go along the coast.

Just because the Mean Girl other models are ganging up on the American model, we can't say the computer model from the good old U.S. of A is wrong. Maybe it's seeing what nobody else is seeing?

We don't know how warm it will get. On paper, it looks like the valleys will get above freezing for just a few hours, if at all, and the warmest temperatures would come when the precipitation is lightest.

I've often seen the computer models underestimate the strength of warm air intrusions with storms like this. Especially early in the winter. Also, the water temperature off the New England coast is warmer than normal. Will that make the air coming into northwestern New England warmer than predicted, and give us more rain?   Maybe.

If you're a snow lover and get burned by this storm, you still have a shot at joy. Longer range forecasts - though not always accurate - are suggesting below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation well into the week between Christmas and New Year. That would suggest plenty of snow.

I wouldn't hang my hat on that scenario, but maybe! 

As is always the case in a situation like this, expect an update from me tomorrow morning. 

Tuesday Evening Vermont Snow Updates: Minor Adjustments To Messy Wednesday Forecast

The new forecast issued late this afternoon from the National 
Weather Service in South Burlington is only slightly changed
from this morning. Maybe a little more in the Champlain Valley,
maybe a little less in eastern Vermont. 

 Just a quick Tuesday evening update to let you know tomorrow morning is going to suck in Vermont.

We're still on track to receive a burst of snow that will be heaviest during the morning commute. 

So: The first snowfall of the season hits right at the morning commute. What could go wrong?

If you can stay home tomorrow morning, do it. This isn't exactly a blockbuster storm, but the combination of wet snow (which is more slippery than the dry stuff of midwinter), inexperienced motorists in the snow, people without snow tires, and you have a recipe for a mess.

Also, ground temperatures are warm. Remember, summer in November just ended a few days ago. When you have that situation, snow falls on the road, partially melts due to the warm ground, then re-freezes into ice. With a little water on top. Which is as slippery as you can get. 

It looks like some warm air will sneak in aloft, possibly changing things to sleet and freezing rain in some spots, just to make things interesting.

Dry air aloft, and a bit of warming, could  change the snow to drizzle in the afternoon in the valleys, which would temporarily help the situation on the roads. But things will probably go back to light snow late in the day or the evening so that won't help. 

If anything, the National Weather Service in South Burlington has slightly increased the expected accumulations in the Champlain Valley. Their latest maps indicates maybe two to three inches of snow there. 

Accumulations might be a little less in eastern Vermont than earlier forecasts, due to the risk of mixed precipitation. In general, though, look for an accumulation of two to six inches for most of us.

More on this tomorrow morning 

As Advertised, Winter Has Arrived In Vermont; More Coming

Snow dusting the Christmas tree we just picked up 
yesterday as it waits for us to bring it in today
from my truck in St. Albans, Vermont. Snow and
more normal winter weather is making things look
appropriate for the season. 

A little over a week ago, when we Vermonters were basking in unseasonable, record warmth, we promised that we would gradually sink into winter by now. 

Just like that, it has come to pass. We're not getting anything unusual for December. But it's wintry. 

We've had three days in a row with temperatures remaining below freezing. Most of us have a nice white dusting of snow on the ground now. 

Roads were icy for Wednesday morning's commute, and the air had a bite to it yesterday. Here in St. Albans, Vermont, we collected about an inch of snow. So did Burlington. 

Yep, it's winter.  Although this is a fairly mild version of it, and it will stay on the reasonable side. You should still expect more seasonal challenges and joys in the coming days. 

Starting now.  Most of us are waking up to some light snow falling, and that will be the state of affairs fro the rest of the day and into tonight. 

This won't be a blockbuster storm by any stretch of the imagination.  It's coming in from the west, so it doesn't really have a great supply of moisture. Plus this storm is weak. 

Even so, it's got enough energy and spunk to crank out a storm total of one to four inches over most of the Green Mountain State by tomorrow morning. Some of the higher elevations could close in on six inches with this thing, says the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

There will be the usual problems with roads this morning and for this evening's commute. Again, nothing extreme, but you should slow down, keep as much space between your car and everyone else's as possible, and just be sane and attentive while driving. 

It's not all that cold out, and it will stay on the relatively mild side. That sets the stage for the next challenge. 

After more flurries Thursday, then some sun and warmish weather Friday (highs near 40!), we get into the next storm. 

The next one is no huge thing either, but it will give us another challenge we'll need to get used to: Freezing rain. Ugh. 

Now, this won't be a disaster, the trees won't be caving in under the weight of ice or anything that dramatic. 

But there seems to be increasing chances that freezing rain will turn roads, sidewalks, driveways and such pretty icy Saturday night and Sunday morning.  This is especially true east of the Green Mountains, where low level cold air is more likely to linger.

The Champlain Valley is a more likely to just see a cold rain. However, I expect the experts to refine this weekend forecast as we get closer to the event, so stay tuned for updates and changes.

You know the drill, though. Every year we have to deal with such icy weather several times per winter.

One thing we haven't seen yet is true Arctic cold.  The coldest it's been in Burlington so far this season is 18 degrees, back in mid-November.  Pretty tolerable, for sure. 

I don't really see many signs of any subzero cold coming in anytime soon. I mentioned yesterday that Canada is extremely warm currently by their standards, so there's no real supply of bitter cold up there. 

Frigid air is likely to finally build up in northern and central Canada over the next week to ten days, which is what you would expect in December. 

However, forecasts call for a continued fast, mostly west to east flow across the United States. That would tend to block most of the frigid air off to our north, with few chance for any of it to break loose and head south towards us. 

If long range forecasts hold, that would mean no subzero cold in Vermont except in the coldest hollows between now and Christmas.  There's also no real sign of any sustained periods of super balmy weather either, which should give some hope to winter sports enthusiasts. 

That is IF the current forecasts hold.  As I've said repeatedly, long range forecasts can be unreliable.  Don't be surprised if there's a surprise or two. 

Sunday Evening Update: Vermont Snow On Our Doorstep; A Lot In Some Places

Here we go, it's that time of year. Almost all of Vermont
can expect some snow between now and Tuesday 
morning.  Areas in yellow or orange can expect
six or more inches of new snow. 

 The upcoming episode of winter weather coming in for parts of Vermont tonight through Tuesday morning is impressive enough that I think we need a Sunday evening update. 

This evening's cold front, once it gets through in a few hours, will set up a classic upslope snow event for Monday especially. 

These upslope snows can dump a lot of snow on the western slopes and summits of the Green Mountains but little near Lake Champlain and in the floor of the Connecticut River Valley.

In this case, up to a foot of snow or even more might pile up on summits like Mount Mansfield and Jay Peak.  

Lower elevations near and along the mountains - where many Vermonters live - could see four to seven inches of snow from this. At least for those of you living at elevations higher than 1,000 feet in the northern half of Vermont. 

Even the far northern Champlain Valley could get into the act a little bit, with three or four inches possible in areas a few miles inland from the lake.  The eastern part of St. Albans, where I live, for instance, could get three or four inches of snow by midday Tuesday. 

I actually pulled my snow shovel out of the shed today and left it by the front door of the house to make it easy for the dogs to get in and out through the expected snow accumulation. My husband, definitely NOT a snow lover, has expressed his discontent over this development. 

Places near Lake Champlain, like Burlington and Middlebury, might get a dusting or maybe an inch, if they're "lucky"

I'm making a big deal out of this because for many of us, this will be the first couple of commutes to and from work this season in which the roads could be pretty dicey.  This includes to and from work Monday and to work Tuesday morning 

Many people don't have their snow tires on yet. Most of us are not used to driving in snow.  Plus we have the usual complete morons on the roads. So budget in extra time to get to and from work and be careful out there. 

Strong northwest winds will wrap moisture from Canada and bring it this way.  As the air goes up the slopes of the mountains, it'll chill further, and wring out moisture in the form of snow.   Disturbances in this northwest wind flow will enhance the snowfall, especially Monday morning and Monday evening and overnight. 

This kind of situation is really quite common in Vermont during November and December.  The Great Lakes and lakes in Ontario and Quebec aren't frozen yet, so they add a little moisture to the atmosphere, allowing for more snow than if the lakes had been frozen. 

The wind during this will be strong, and temperatures during the day won't get out of the low to mid 30s So dress like it's January tomorrow and Tuesday.  The snow should end in most places by noon Tuesday and the winds will calm down a fair bit by late afternoon or evening 

This is a little early for this type of storm, however.   We usually don't start seeing these upslope snow events until we get a little closer to Thanksgiving. 

Winter sports enthusiasts probably love this forecast, and others probably hate it.  

But I've got news that will disappoint the winter people and please the folks like me who haven't come close to finishing their outdoor autumn chores yet.

This episode of snow does NOT signify an early onset of winter, like early November snows last year did. We can expect valley temperatures during the second half of this week to climb into the mid 50s to low 60s. The summits will be above freezing.

It's even possible we could be flirting with record high temperatures by next Sunday or so. 

The early season winter blast will disappear quickly this week.