Florida Hurricanes In 2004 and 2022 Eerily Similar. And Other Strange Tropical Coincidences

The Washington Post gave us this graphic, showing
the remarkable similarities in paths for hurricanes Charle
and Jeanne in 2004, and Ian and Nicole
in 2022

Now that Hurricane Nicole is long gone, the Washington Post and many other meteorologists are struck by a strange Florida hurricane coincidence.  

In 2004, powerful Category 4 Hurricane Charley roared ashore from the Gulf of Mexico into Cayo Costa, Florida. It moved northeastward across the state. Just 43 days later, Hurricane Jeanne came in off the Atlantic and hit the east coast of Florida, making landfall south of Daytona Beach.  Jeanne's path crossed Charlie's in central Florida.

In 2022, powerful Category 4 Hurricane Ian roared ashore from the Gulf of Mexico into Cayo Costa  Florida. It moved northeastward across the state. Just 43 days later, Hurricane Nicole came in off the Atlantic and hit the east coast of Florida, making landfall south of Daytona Beach. Jeanne's path crossed Ian's in central Florida.

You probably noticed the similarities between the two previous paragraphs. 

The Washington Post reports the similarities between the four storms was first noticed by Matt Devitt, chief meteorologist for Tampa television station WINK.

In that busy hurricane season of 2004, Hurricane Frances and the above mentioned Hurricane Jeanne came ashore in Florida at the exact same spot, Hutchinson Island, less than three weeks apart. 

Weather is so complicated, with so much going on, there's bound to be strange coincidences. There's a few others that involve tropical storm, like the double Allison the Weather Channel highlights 

In June, 1989, Tropical Storm Allison, came ashore near Houston and meandered around southeastern Texas and Louisiana for days. The slow moving storm dumped 10 to 25 inches of rain, which produced flooding that killed 11 people.

The National Hurricane Center rotates through names that are repeated once every sixth year. If a hurricane is especially notorious, the name is retired and replaced. Allison was not deemed big enough to be replaced.

Which meant another Tropical Storm Allison came ashore near Houston in 2001. Like the previous Allison, it meandered around southeastern Texas for a few days, dumping up to 40 inches of rain and producing catastrophic flooding that killed 23 people.

With that, the National Hurricane Center decided to retire the name "Allison" from its roster.

On Sept. 16, 1988, Gilbert, which had been a monster Category 5 storm with the lowest pressure ever observed in the Western Hemisphere up to that point, landed as a Category 3 cyclone at La Pesca, Mexico. 

Twenty-five years later on the exact same date, high end Tropical Storm Ingrid hit the exact same spot - La Pesca, Mexico.

In 2021, two dying tropical storms  came ashore within a month or so of each other in Westerly, Rhode Island.  Elsa hit Westerly at 12:15 p.m. July 9.  Henri limped into Westerly on August 22 at - you guessed it - 12:15 p.m. 

By the way, another tropical storm hit the unlikely target of Westerly in 1985.  It's name? Henri.  Yep, another one.  

Dreary Vermont, Devastated Atlantic Canada And Nervous Florida

A perfect autumn afternoon in St Albans, Vermont on
Saturday. Those will be the last clear blue skies
we see for several days. 

 I hope you enjoyed Vermont's perfect September weather on Saturday. 

What could be better?  Deep blue skies, a few puffy clouds, a cool breeze, and spots of fall color here and there, promising more to come. 

I'm sure more sunshine is on the way, eventually, but not for awhile. Starting today, we're stuck under the clouds again for several days. 

An upper level area of low pressure looks like it's getting stuck just to our west, and will only slowly get its act in gear and move slowly out of our hair. But not until Thursday at the earliest.

Within this big patch of unsettled weather, several disturbances will come through, each triggering some rain. It's not always easy to time out the worst of the rains, but it looks like one batch comes through this afternoon and evening, and another during the day Monday.     

Unlike the past two storms, this one won't include particularly heavy rain. But it will add to this September's reputation as a soggy month.  Burlington only needs 0.16 inches of rain out of this to have us enter the top 10 list of wettest Septembers. 

Total rainfall today through Wednesday night looks to be about a half inch, give or take. 

Light showers and clouds will persist midweek. Some flurries might hit the mountain summits again Wednesday or Thursday nights, but again, it won't amount to anything. We might get some clearing by the end of the week, but that will set us up for a risk of some frost Thursday night. We'll see! 

Another sign of impending winter is what this upper level low will do to areas just downwind from the Great Lakes. Heavy lake effect rain showers are likely for the next few days downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario. It will be too warm for the more famous lake effect snows. But the same process that causes the lake effects snows will be responsible for the rain. 

Cool winds blowing across warmer lake waters will pull up moisture and create those showers. 

FIONA UPDATE

Hurricane Fiona is finally gone, but the devastation in Atlantic Canada is something else. 

Video taken during the storm shows houses washed out to sea, especially around Channel Port Aux Basques, Newfoundland.  One person is reported to be missing after possibly being swept out to sea.  Another woman was rescued when the house she was in collapsed into the waves.  

Screen grab from video showing houses being swept out
to sea in Canada by storm Fiona. 

Many other Atlantic Canada homes suffered serious damage as roofs blew off,  and windows caved in under the pressure of the hurricane gusts. Many other homes were damaged as large trees fell on them. 

In Halifax, Nova Scotia, just as a for instance, 100 people were hastily evacuated from an apartment complex when the roof blew off.  In Prince Edward Island, 95 percent of the population lost electricity. 

This storm is consistent with climate change. Sea surface temperatures are way above normal off the Canadian coast, and that allowed the storm to maintain its intensity, even as it transitioned from a true hurricane to a sort of North Atlantic storm hybrid. 

Hurricanes or transitioning hurricanes have hit Atlantic Canada before, but this one was very likely the most intense on record. 

TROPICAL STORM IAN

Despite extra efforts by the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service to obtain more detailed atmospheric data, we still don't have a lot of clarity yet on how Tropical Storm Ian will affect Florida. 

It does still seem Florida is the target, but at this point, it could hit anywhere on Florida's west coast or in the state's panhandle. 

The tropical storm as of early this morning had top winds of just 50 mph, which isn't that big a deal. But it does look poised to rapidly intensify into a powerful hurricane as it makes its way northwest toward Cuba.  

Forecasts for Ian's strength as it approaches Florida is also divided. Some forecasts call for some weakening, while others keep it pretty powerful as it nears the coastline late this week. 

Looks Like We'll Be Talking About Tropical Threats For Awhile. Fiona To Fade But Ian A Big New Issue

The view of storm damage from Fiona from the offices of 
the Wreckhouse Press in Newfoundland. 

 As expected, Hurricane Fiona, while in transition to a non-tropical powerhouse of a storm, slammed into eastern Nova Scotia overnight.  

Its central pressure at landfall was estimated to be at 932 millibars, which would probably make it the most intense storm in Canadian history.

Reports were only just starting to trickle out of the Canada Fiona zone early this morning as I wrote this, so we don't have all the details yet.  Winds were still howling up there at dawn.  

About 410,000 people in Nova Scotia were without power this morning. I know there are lots of downed trees, coastal flooding, inland flooding, so yeah, it's a mess in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and nearby areas. Video emerging from Nova Scotia documents downed trees everywhere. 

Somebody in Nova Scotia REALLY didn't
want their trampoline to blow
away in Storm Fiona.

I saw a report out of Sydney, Nova Scotia around dawn local time that showed winds there at 61 mph gusting to 88 mph.  Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island police tweeted, "Conditions are like nothing we've ever seen. We are logging reports of downed trees and wires but will only be responding to emergency calls." 

The Wreckhouse Press in Newfoundland tweeted a photo showing a house appearing to be falling into a chaotic, stormy Atlantic Ocean. 

The storm will continue on into Labrador today and then head toward southwestern Greenland. 

TROPICAL STORM IAN

The next biggy that will be in the news is Tropical Storm Ian. As expected, its forecast path has been narrowed down slightly, and Florida seems to be the target, at least for now. 

As of this morning, Ian was still a fairly weak tropical storm southeast of Jamaica.

However, conditions have become favorable for strengthening as it moves northwestward through the Caribbean.

Ian is expected to become a hurricane by the time it reaches the Cayman Islands on Monday, and it will be threatening western Cuba by early Tuesday.

From there, Ian becomes a threat to the United States. I think places like Houston and New Orleans can  mostly breath a sigh of relief, as Ian doesn't seem like it wants to go that far west in the Gulf of Mexico.

Chances are, Ian will aim for Florida.  It won't get near there until Wednesday. Since there's several days to go, the forecast on exactly where Ian might hit are fuzzy.  Honestly, it could be anywhere between Miami and Pensacola, or even to the left or right of this range. 

Forecasters are worried that Ian could be a powerful hurricane, perhaps Category 3 or higher, as it nears Florida next week. 

A worst case scenario would be Ian as a major hurricane directly entering Tampa Bay, or going by it just to the west.  That would push huge amounts of water further into the bay, badly flooding a huge expanse of low lying, heavily populated land. 

Of course, we don't know whether anything like that will happen.  It's just a sign that people in the possible cross hairs of Ian ought to be starting to get their hurricane plans in gear.   

This isn't scientific, but it seems to me that in the past few decades tropical storms and hurricanes that begin with the letter "I" seem to end up being particularly nasty. Ida last year. Irma in 2017. Also, Ike in 2008, Ivan in 2004, and who in Vermont can forget Irene in 2011?

There's a couple of other tropical storms spinning way out in the Atlantic Ocean. They are Gaston, not far from the Azores and Hermine, a little off the west coast of Africa.  Neither storm looks like a big threat, and neither will get particularly strong.