Weird Northern Heat Wave, Wildfires Now Giving Way To Widespread Tornados/Severe Weather In The U.S.

After a sort of quiet first half of May in the severe weather
department, things ramp up in the nation starting today.
Areas in yellow and especially orange are at risk
for tornadoes and destructive storms today. 

No rest for the weary in the United States when it comes to active, dangerous weather.

The giant, bonkers, record shattering heat wave in the northern Plains, western Great Lakes and south central Canada is mercifully ending. 

Those giant forest fires in Minnesota that resulted from that arid, windy weather should get tamped down somewhat by much cooler weather and more than a half inch of rain expected today and tomorrow. 

But the price of that is steep. We're about to embark on about a week of tornadoes, destructive hailstorms, severe thunderstorms and flooding that will hit various parts of the nation. 

March and April had a near record number of tornadoes in the United States. As we entered the peak of the severe weather season in May, we were fortunate to get a sort of break, 

True, there were tornadoes and severe thunderstorms and brutal hailstorms so far this month, but there were no mega-outbreaks of tornadoes or multi-day strings of severe weather in the first half of May.

Still, we've had 758 tornadoes through May 13 compared to the average of 613 through that date. In the past 15 years, only 2011 and 2024 had had more tornadoes through mid-May in the United States.

Those relatively calm days of early May are over. Starting today, tornadoes, giant hail and destructive storms will be in the news for at least a week.

If Ma Nature plays her cards right, or more accurately, wrong, the tornado count for the season will get a big boost over the next few days. 

TODAY

The dangerous weather today will cover a broad area centered on the Great Lakes, and they'll hit populated areas, too. Cities most at risk for destructive thunderstorms and tornadoes today include Chicago, Milwaukee, Madison, Wisconsin and Fort Wayne, Indiana.

There's a chance that some tornadoes in or more likely near these cities could be strong and long lasting. In other words, the damage could be worse had a barn roof flying off and a couple trees toppling over. We'd better hope the stronger tornadoes remain over rural areas 

TOMORROW

The risk of tornadoes and severe weather on Friday is just as great as today, it's just shifted south to the Ohio Valley. Cities most at risk Friday include Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Nashville, Louisville and St. Louis. 

NEXT FEW DAYS

The weather traffic will be busy in the U.S. for the next few days with storms and disturbances moving generally west to east across the nation. These storms will feed on the contrast between record and near record heat in the far south and chilly air to the north, 

The tornado threat will shift depending the day,  but will focus mostly in traditional Tornado Alley -- the Plains states.  NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a tornado threat in that general region daily Saturday through Tuesday.  

VERMONT EFFECTS

Once again, through all this rough national weather, we in the Green Mountain State will lead a charmed life.  But that doesn't mean conditions here will stay nice, We've got rain, thunderstorms, clouds, and eventually much chillier air coming in. 

There's even a low chance of severe storms and a little flooding through this,  But luckily, so far it looks like we're avoiding a calamity.

The sunny, warm weather we've had in Vermont this week is all but over. Though today won't be so bad, with a fair amount of sun mixed with the clouds and just a slight chance of a widely scattered afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm. 

Starting today and continuing tomorrow, it will be a bit more humid than we're used to. Kind of like summer,

Friday will be a truly summery day with highs in many places getting into the low 80s and again, it will be on the humid side. Showers and thundershowers will develop in the afternoon and continue into the evening, They'll be much more numerous than they will be today, so most of us will get wet. 

Enjoy that summer warmth and humidity tomorrow, as that will be the last time you feel it for a long while. We're shifting into a cool, unsettled pattern that should last until at least toward the end of the month. 

And guess what? Saturday will be rainy, which will be the eighth wet Saturday in a row. It'll be the most interesting day of the week, too. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont in a marginal risk for isolated severe storms. NOAA also has us in a marginal risk for excessive rain and flooding. 

Those are the lowest of the alert levels. If severe storms do develop, they will be isolated and short-live. Same is true if we see any flooding.  Any high water would be in just a handful of places and should be minor. At least as it looks now.  If there's updates to this, we of course will pass that along. 

Starting Sunday, daily highs in Vermont will only be in the 50s and 60s for the foreseeable future.

Rain Is Ending, Flooding Continues In Middle U.S. Here In Vermont, A Changeable Uncertain Week

What it looked like Saturday in Memphis

The death toll from a week of tornadoes and flooding in the middle of the nation is at least 16, as the bad weather finally begins to taper off today. 

Meanwhile, up here in Vermont, we're still avoiding extremes, but the weather could get a little interesting at times this week. And there's a lot more uncertainty than usual for what might happen toward the end of the week. 

As usual, we'll take a look at the grim national weather picture, then  update you about what to expect here in Vermont

MID-U.S. FLOODING ROARS ON

Flooding warnings were still in effect this morning for a vast area from eastern Oklahoma to Ohio to Alabama,

The rough weather had shifted to around Alabama this morning where a tornado watch and widespread flash flood warnings were in effect,

Large areas of Oklahoma, Tennessee and Kentucky received ten to 15 inches of rain this week, incredible amount for any kind of storm in that area.

Even though rain this morning was much lighter in this region and will end soon, it will take days for rivers to crest.

Some of the most torrential downpours of the week roared through Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, and parts of surrounding states Saturday 

The flooding was not limited to rural areas and small towns. 

Flash flood emergencies and "particularly dangerous situation" flash flood warnings were issued for both Little Rock, Arkansas and Memphis, Tennessee.

Little Rock received ten inches so rain in four days, including a little over four inches Saturday. 

Memphis had 5.47 inches of rain Saturday, about as much as they normally see in the entire month of April. It was the city's wettest April day on record. Saturday's downpours brought the Memphis storm total for the week to over a foot of rain. Needless to say, the city was paralyzed by flash flooding on Saturday. 

Parts of the Ohio River are expected to crest at some of the highest levels in years. At Cincinnati, the Ohio is expected to crest at 60 feet, the highest level since 2018.

Meanwhile, at least five more tornadoes were reported Saturday in Mississippi.  So far, right around 100 tornadoes have been counted for the week. The number probably will rise a little more as damage paths are assessed. 

The weather pattern is changing -  temporarily at least - to a more benign one.  Weather systems will mostly flow smoothly west to east across the nation. At least until things hit the East Coast, where things might get a little gummed up and stormy toward the end of the week. 

This being spring, there will still threats of severe weather and heavy rain from time to time over the next week, but these will be much more widely scattered and much less intense than we saw during the past several days. 

VERMONT WEATHER WEEK

Don't expect spectacular spring weather this week, but at least there will be moments that aren't too bad.

Then again, expect some wintry weather, too. 

Yes, we're still dealing with snow prediction maps
here in Vermont. Most of the snow you see here
would come Monday night and Tuesday. Some 
of the Green Mountains could see four to six'
inches of snow while many valleys get one to
three inches. This map of course is subject to
change as more data comes in. 

After light showers last night and some gusty winds in the northern Champlain Valley, rain was slowly settling to the south this morning. It looks like at least northern and central Vermont should have a dry, but cool and breezy afternoon.

The cold front that caused the unsettled weather is set to stall in southern New England, and a weak wave of low pressure will ride northeastward along it tonight and Monday. 

That will bring our first bout of wintry weather. Light rain and light snow will develop in southern Vermont tonight and continue into Monday. 

It looks like areas from Route 4 south could end up with a slushy coating to as much as an inch of new snow by Monday morning. 

Not a huge deal, but a reminder that winter doesn't give up easily in Vermont. 

We'll see an even bolder slap of winter Monday night and Tuesdays. A pretty strong disturbance that will introduce a blast of late season cold air will hit late Monday night and Tuesday. 

This won't have a tremendous amount of moisture with it, so no big snowstorm. But the strength of this system will help squeeze out enough snow to cause some problems. It looks like it might come in the form of heavy snow showers and snow squalls.

This still looks like it might be timed to screw up your Tuesday morning commute to work or school, so keep that in mind. Most valleys will probably see only a half inch to two inches of snow, but that's more than enough to ice up the pavement. 

We'll have to watch this system carefully, too. If it somehow manages to pull in some moisture from the Atlantic Ocean, we could be looking at more snow than I've outlined here. As it looks now, there's a 10 percent chance we could see a four to eight inch snowstorm. 

Yes, those 10 percent odds are pretty low, but they're not zero. I'm strongly doubting we'd get something like that, but it's enough for meteorologists to keep an eye on,

Tuesday itself will be blustery and quite cold for this time of year. Snow showers will continue all day. That's especially true in the central and northern Green Mountains, where several inches of snow might pile up. 

Some of us won't even get above freezing. The rest of  us will barely make it into the 30s for temperatures. .

It'll stay chilly Wednesday, but it will at least be a little warmer and less windy than Tuesday. 

The end of the week and next weekend is a big question mark. 

You might have caught up above where I said weather systems look like they might get gummed up along the East Coast. That traffic jam looks like it might spawn a nor'easter-like storm somewhere along  or off the coast.

We don't know what that means for us. It could mean nothing, just some occasional light sprinkles as weaker disturbances meander past Vermont and the main storm whiffs us off to the east.

Or this thing could come close enough to provide a fairly steady light rain or even high elevation snow. Worst case scenario is heavy precipitation of some sort, but at this point that worst case scenario is looking kinda doubtful right now. 

Bottom line: if you want to know what the weather is going to be like at the end of the week, you're going to have to wait a few days to find out.