New York Mayor Gets High Marks For Handling Snowstorm; Politicians In History, Not So Much

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, right
seen shoveling snow during this week's winter
storm. Many mayors have gotten in trouble
through inept handling of such storms, but
Mamdani got high marks in how he managed
his first big winter storm as mayor. 

 New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani hasn't been in office for quite a month yet. And he's already faced down a problem that has quickly ended or at least trashed the careers of many big city mayors: A winter storm. 

John Lindsay, Michael Bloomberg, and Bill DeBlasio all caught heat, so to speak, for their handling of New York City snowstorms. Mayors of other cities have flailed in the snow, too.     

This weekend's storm dumped nearly a foot of snow and sleet on the Big Apple 

It looks like the brand new mayor of the Big Apple survived his first test. 

Mamdani is a master of communication, judging for a video he released to social media on Saturday, the day before the storm. 

There he was in a sanitation department garage, with all the garbage trucks all retrofitted to become snow trucks. The video was professional produced, complete with optimistic background music, and skillful editing. 

The city deployed 2,000 workers on 12 hours shifts. The city sent out 700 salt spreaders and over 2,000 plows 

Mamdani also made sure he was seen in public monitoring the storm, even helping people shovel out on occasion. He held press conferences to provide updates. He made sure he was the public face of the New York storm, and messaged that he was on top of it. 

Stateandcityny.com tells us

"From the early hours of Sunday morning to well into the evening, Mamdani traversed the city, shoveling snow, greeting and thanking sanitation workers, posing for photo ops, providing updates via television interviews and hosting a news conference."

The New York Times headline was "Mamdani Clears Early Hurdles as Storm Bears Down On New York."

Even Republicans admitted Mamdami did a good job. "The city did well. There was an abnormal amount of snow and the markets opened up the trains are running, ad the DSNY is rocking and rolling," former Republic City Council Member Joe Borelli said. 

It wasn't perfect. The storm was even colder than most that hit New York City. Temperatures were in the teens to around 20 during the storm, with gusty winds. That made things especially dangerous, especially for people who are unhoused. 

About 170 people were taken off the streets and into shelter prior to and during the storm. However, seven people in New York City died, some of whom had been in homeless shelters in the past. However, it wasn't immediately clear whether the deaths were caused by the cold weather. 

Another less serious issue that had some New Yorkers disliking Mamdani's actions during the storm. They were school children. Instead of canceling school on Monday, the mayor said there would be remote learning from home. 

He said kids could throw snowballs at him if they wanted. 

Another criticism Mamdani received: He was not wearing a hat like he should have in such weather.

So no playing in the snow. But, then again, the snow is still on the ground and will be for quite awhile, as more frigid weather is in the New York City forecast. 

MAYORS SINK IN SNOW

Other mayors saw their careers set back or even destroyed by how they dealt with a winter storm. 

John Lindsay dealt with a February, 1969 storm that was supposed to be mostly rain, but turned into 15 inches of snow. An unprepared and disorganized Lindsay administration couldn't even get major highways open, the subways running and schools open for two days. The storm killed 42 New Yorkers. 

Lindsay lost the next Republican mayoral primary, but ran as a third party candidate and barely won. 

In 2010 Mayor Michael Bloomberg got in trouble for being in Bermuda during a big New York blizzard.  He also blithely said, "This city is going on. It's a day lie every other day," and suggested people go out and shop or enjoy a broadway show. 

This as highways were blocked, subways barely worked and more than 20 inches of snow piled into drifts several feet tall. 

Bloomberg did better with subsequent storms, though. And he wasn't the only politician who got in trouble for going to warming climes when the Arctic invaded the United States.

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is still getting ribbed for fleeing to Cancun when a deadly winter storm and freeze hit Texas in 2021. During the storm last weekend, Cruz was seen on a flight bound for Laguna Beach. Cruz said it was a work trip and he's be back in time for the storm. No word if that can to pass. Cruz was also away in Greece when horrific floods hit Texas last July. 

Anyway, back to mayors. 

Sometimes, they can't win. A record deep snowstorm was predicted for New York in January, 2015. Mayor Bill de Blasio said the city was bracing for a snowstorm "the likes of which we have never seen before." 

Instead the deep snow stayed on Long Island, and New York City got a measly six inches of new snow, and de Blasio was criticized for hyping things up too much.  He responded by humorously reading aloud for reporters a mocking Onion story with the headline "NYC Mayor: Reconcile Yourselves With Your Good, For All Will Perish In The Tempest."

Other cities have certainly seen mayors lose to snowstorms too. In January, 1979, Chicago Mayor Michael Bilandic botched the effort to clear streets after a 20-inch blizzard. Because of that, he later that month lost the Democratic primary election for mayor to Jane Byrne, who went to to become the first female mayor of major American city. 

Last winter, St. Louis officials came under fierce criticism after a January 5 snow and ice storm left the city's streets resembling skating rinks through the month. City leaders got some redemption with their competent handling of the aftermath of a large, deadly tornado that cut right through St. Louis. 

After this week's far-ranging snowstorm, some mayors are taking the kind of heat they wish could melt the snow instead. Residents of Providence, Rhode Island, Paterson, New Jersey and even to some extent Buffalo, New York are complaining about a slow cleanup.  

Trump Administration Feeling Heat On Texas Flood Response

The grim search for bodies continue after
the July 4 catastrophic floods in Texas,
as our early look at Trump era FEMA
response is not great, 

 The Trump team is finding out it's harder to manage major disasters than they thought.

And the public is learning why a fully staffed Federal Emergency Management Agency might not be such a bad idea after all. 

Let the state's handle it, FEMA isn't necessary,  the Trumpers said.  This Texas flood will manage itself, they must have thought. Or at least disappear in the next news cycle, so it won't be a problem for them anymore. 

We know that if something doesn't directly benefit Trump or his minions, it's not worth dealing with it. So to their minds, why mess with that Texas mud pit?

But when disasters get this big and stay under the media spotlight like the Texas floods have done, it gets harder and harder to control the narrative.    

At last check, at least 134 people were confirmed dead  in the Texas flooding   Huge swaths of the Texas Hill Country are devastated, with houses washed away, others with flood damage up to the ceilings 

The Trump folks are publicly patting themselves on the back about what a good job they're doing with the Texas flood, but the evidence suggests otherwise. 

CALLS UNANSWERED

The New York Times on July 11 reported the now-really short-staffed FEMA was answering very few calls for help after the Texas disasters. Answer rates to the FEMA disaster assistance hotline fell to roughly the 35 percent rant on July 6 and just 16 percent on July 7. 

As USA Today reports: 

"The lack of responsiveness happened because the agency had fired hundreds of contractors at call centers, according to a person briefed on the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to discuss internal matters.

The agency laid off the contractors on July 5 after their contracts expired and were not extended according to the documents and the person briefed on the matter.

Kristi Noem, the homeland security secretary, who has instituted a new requirement that she personally approve expenses over $100,000, did not renew the contracts until Thursday, five days after the contract expired. FEMA is part of Department of Homeland Security."

It appears to me ICE Barbie, as I call her, did not worry about this mess-up until it appeared there might be a public relations problem brewing. 

ICE Barbie, who is much better at cosplaying and posing for the media, naturally went on TV.  Here's her quote from her appearance on NBC's 'Meet the Press with Kristen Welker."

"No employees were off of work....... Every one of them was answering calls, so false reporting, fake news and it's discouraging. It's discouraging that during this time, when we have such a loss of life and so many people's lives have been turned upside down, that people are playing politics with this because the response time was immediate."

Notice the careful wording.

A lot of employees had been let go. The ones that were left were answering calls. I'm sure every one of the few remaining did answer calls, as Noem said. She just left out the part that a bunch of people who could have helped handle the big call volume weren't there anymore. 

Any criticism is supposedly "playing politics."  The crisis in Texas is far from over, so you'd think prodding an agency to actually help people is the definition of caring about "so many people's lives."

MICROMANAGING

Noem's micromanaging - reviewing any expenditure over $100,000 - also slowed the response to the Texas flood in other ways. As CNN reported:

"For FEMA, where disaster response costs routinely soar into the billions as the agency contracts with on-the-ground crews, officials say that threshold is essentially 'pennies' requiring sign-off for relatively small expenditures.

In essence, they say the order has stripped the agency of much of its autonomy at the very moment its help is needed most.  

'We were operating under a clear set of guidance: lean forward, be prepared, anticipate what the state needs, and be ready to deliver it,' a longtime FEMA official told CNN. 'That is not as clear of an intent for us at the moment.'"

This for instance meant FEMA couldn't pre-position Urban Search and Rescue crews from a network of teams stationed regionally around the country. Noem reportedly didn't authorize FEMA's deployment of  the Urban Search and Rescue teams until more than 72 hours after the flooding started.

For their part, the Noem team used other search and rescue assets and didn't need this Urban Search and Rescue Team. 

The head of FEMA's Urban Search and Rescue branch,  Ken Pagurek, resigned Monday over frustrations with Noem and other Trump appointed FEMA heads. CNN reported that he quit after months of frustration with the Trump administration's efforts to dismantle the agency.

Another talented, needed person leaving because of this idiotic bunch.  Said a DHS spokesperson: 

"FEMA is shifting from a bloated, DC-centric dead weight to a lean, deployable disaster force that empowers state actors to provide relief for their citizens......The old processes are being replaced because they failed American emergencies for decades."

The spokesperson has it exactly backwards. Until now, FEMA has been praised for its rapid response I'm the immediate emergency in the hours and days after the disaster strikes.

UNEVEN DIRECT RESPONSE

The very valid criticism of FEMA comes in the recovery phase, where applying for assistance and money for rebuilding roads, other infrastructure, homes, and businesses, and girded for the next disaster, always seemed to become a horrible, bureaucratic slog. 

That's where the FEMA reform coulda, shoulda happened. 

FEMA has ultimately arrived in Texas, and they do seem to be trying to help. Parts of the old, better FEMA infrastructure are still there. At least for now.  

Victims are being encouraged to contact FEMA, despite the phone issues to start claims. The agency has set up a help center and has started processing claims. 

Some Texas flood victims said that FEMA has been helpful so far, which is a glimmer of encouragement here.

But private and church groups are leading the way, searching for victims, mucking out damaged homes and setting up field kitchens for people whose houses have washed away or otherwise have been left uninhabitable. 

Still the Texas FEMA stumbles are disconcerting. 

I doubt FEMA and the Trump administration will change course much, but the bad Texas disaster response is certainly being noticed. 

"Heck of a job, Secretary Noem," the Houston Chronicle editorial board sarcastically wrote. The remark is a throwback to former President George W. Bush's notorious and highly inaccurate praise for then-FEMA Director Michael Brown as New Orleans flooded during Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Several Democratic members of Congress demanded an investigation into Noem's response to the disaster. Rep. Ed Markey, D-Massachusetts called for her resignation. None of this will happen, given the Republican fealty to whatever Trump and his minions do, but it's notable. 

The irony is that Noem, acting FEMA director David Richardson and the Trump administration is undoing what had been badly needed FEMA reforms after the Katrina debacle.

Speaking of Richardson, he didn't make any public statements and appearances for more than a week after the floods. Usually, FEMA directors are splattered themselves all over the news when there's big disasters, giving overviews of the federal response to these calamities. 

Richardson, who famously seemed unaware that the U.S. has a hurricane season, does not have five or more years of disaster management experience. The post-Katrina reforms require FEMA directors to have such experience, but the Trump administration is getting around that by keeping him as the so-called "acting" director. 

Another indication how unseriously the Trumpsters take disaster responses

And remember, this terrible flood happened in a red state.  Trump is the probably the most sinister transactionally motivated person in the world. He'll help his supporters until he doesn't need them anymore. 

But he'll attack his perceived enemies and try everything he can not to help.  What if the Texas disaster happened in a blue state?

We got a taste of that during and after the immense and deadly California wildfires back in January.  

Trump threatened to withhold disaster aid to California unless the state enacted voter ID laws. Never mind that those ID laws have nothing to do with wildfires. That casts doubt on whether he will approve $40 billion California Gov Gavin Newsom has requested to help pay for fire recovery costs.  

Meanwhile, other disasters have hit since Texas and more loom, Wildfire season is ramping up.  Forecasts point toward weather conditions in the coming days and weeks across much of the West that favor large fires. 

Hurricane season has started. The big ones usually hit soon - mostly in August and September. Those flash floods keep hitting all kinds of communities in the United States.

We've known for months that Trump and his loyal band of sycophants are not inclined to help their fellow Americans. Again, because there's nothing in it for them. No profits, no monetary gain. And gawd forbid any of this crew to help disaster victims because it's the right thing to do.

Trump, according to numerous reports, at least once called fallen military service members "losers and suckers."

I think he believes disaster victims are losers and suckers, too.  

The Elephant In The Post Election Room

I post this photo of Shelly Winters when the boat
turns upside down in the "Poseidon Adventure"
whenever I feel like things re heading south, so....

You might have noticed that until now, I have not yet mentioned the election, which apparently has been decided in favor of Donald Trump. 

Readers of this blog know full well I'm a vocal critic of Donald Trump.  Like many of you - nearly half the nation - this isn't a good time for us, to put it mildly.  

To be honest,  I'm disappointed in the people who voted for Trump.

We have to accept that lots of people were willing to throw away so much of what many in this country holds dear in favor of reducing the price of a dozen eggs at the supermarket.

Or something like that. 

Yes, I'm cynical. But you knew that already. 

Something snapped in me Wednesday morning. It's clear that until now, I was misunderstanding the rule of the game. 

The whole thing is about bullying. That's the name of the game voters have decided upon. Trump is a bully, his minions are bullies, and so are his most ardent fans. They're proud of it. 

I knew right along they were bullies. But until now, I thought our better angels might prevail. I was wrong. 

Trump gave his worst follows "permission" to be the awful people they really are. I'm not talking about all Trump voters, of course. Just the snarly ones you always see at his interminable rallies.

The situation we're in now is way different than other instances when a presidential candidate whom I didn't favor won. In those cases, I didn't like their policies, but could easily agree to disagree with them and their supporters.  I still respected these presidents and like-minded politicians. I knew they would (mostly) uphold the law, adhere to the Constitution and were serving their country. 

Here, despite his fans' beliefs, we'll have a president who is only serving himself and perhaps some of his minions. Some of his more thuggish supporters will continue to menace their enemies, especially the more vulnerable. Just because they can. You can't respect anything like that. 

One of my regrets in life is I haven't adequately stood up to bullies, whether their aim was against me or someone else. No more. I'm now ready to be as nasty as the rest of them. 

Of course, I will continue to show kindness and warmth to everybody who deserves it.   But if I encounter the lying liars who lie who created this whole moment in history, then I'm coming out with guns blazing.

Not literally, obviously. I'm never been a violent person and I'm not going to start now.  Any "cruelty" I show toward those who deserve it will be with words and non-violent deeds. I'm not Crazy Harry, the mad bomber from The Muppet Show, after all. 

The lying liars who lie I refer to are mostly the mendacious operatives who spread disinformation regarding just about everything. With the aim to get richer and richer by gaslighting their fans into submission. A lot of 'em fell for it hook, line and sinker in this election.

Brace yourself for a ton more fabrications during the Trump administration. 

This is of course a weather and climate blog, so that's what I'll continue to focus on here.    I'm sure there will be a lot of denying of climate change, or anything to do with basic science during the next four years at least.  Might we see another Sharpie that will "alter" the path of a  hurricane?

You know I haven't been shy at criticizing those who spread all these lies, like the weather conspiracy theories, the supposed nonexistent federal response to recent hurricanes, you name it. 

I've determined I need to step up my efforts to name and shame even more. 

That's not to say this blog will just be a grim vendetta against the people I don't like. I'll happily celebrate the people and organizations who are making a positive difference. There will be plenty of regular news, forecasts, even fun. In fact, the fun element might be me bullying the bullies every once in awhile. 

I know my efforts won't change the world, and it might have me end up in the gulags or something, but like I said, I'm done with the bullies.

To quote the classic movie "Network," I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take this anymore. I'll just need to work on the right way to not take it anymore. Suggestions are welcome.

I also won't become a bitter old man in this process. I don't have the stomach for that, either. 

Through the Trump administration, I'll continue to see beauty and feel the joy in my flower gardens glittering in the sunshine after a spring shower. I'll embrace the kindness in my husband's eyes and the sound of his goofy laugh when he watches some slapstick comedy. 

I'll experience the awe of watching those summertime storm clouds erupt into displays of strength and majesty. And I'll savor the companionship as me and Jackson the Weather Dog, his tail wagging, when we go out first thing on a winter morning to measure how much snow fell the night before. 

There's still a lot of good in the world, and good people in the world, despite the fact the bad seems to  have taken the lead in the game of life right now.  .

This whole screed I've just written could well lose me some regular readers. It's the price I have to pay, I guess.  

When I woke up Wednesday morning, the future looked a lot more uncertain than it ever did. I guess I don't get to coast quietly into older age as I'd planned and hoped. I'll probably lose a lot, but I'm going to cling to my self-respect. 

Much more importantly, I'm going to respect and love the people that really matter, from climate scientists and meteorologists to innocent Trump victims to my own family and friends. 

And to the bullies that are on top of the world right now, I have one not so friendly message: Sooner or later, reality comes around to bite you in the ass. 

Tuesday Evening Vermont Flood Update: Rivers Receding, Cleanup Begins, Disaster Declaration, Maybe?

The Lamoille River at Fairfax Falls near Cambridge,
Vermont rages amid snow flurries on Tuesday. 

Assessments of Monday's flooding are coming in, and the bottom line seems to look like this:

This flood was quite damaging, and caused a huge boatload of headaches. But the rain stopped just in time to prevent things from going completely off the rails as they did in July.

 The best news is that there have been no reports of deaths or serious injuries. 

Honestly, I think had it rained like it did for another two, three maybe four hours on Monday, we would have had another July. 

LATEST UPDATES

As evening drew close today, roads were reopening, though a few remain closed. The flood crests on the larger rivers had emptied into Lake Champlain or the Connecticut River, or were getting close to that point. 

For those who suffered flood damage again this time, or came close to it, this event was mostly an emotional, and sometimes physical trauma. 

"Seeing homes and businesses surrounded by water again is heartbreaking," Vermont Gov. Phil Scott said during a Tuesday afternoon press briefing. "I can't imagine the toll the has on anyone."

 Lots of Vermont municipalities, businesses and homeowners had close calls with Monday's flood, and they still brought headaches. There's plenty of examples. 

From Vermont Public:  

"In Londonderry, the West River got close to Mike and Tammy's Main Street Deli but didn't cause widespread damage like this summer. 

The Winooski River, at major flood stage, rages past
buildings in Winooski, Vermont on Tuesday. 

Store owner Tammy Clough says the staff still had to move everything up off the floor Monday, and then move it back down in time to open up Tuesday morning. 'I'm exhaused, but what are you going to do,' Clough said. 'I was exhausted before yesterday. What are you going to do? We all just pull together and get it done.'"

Vermont Public also reported the Johnson Post Office just reopened last week having recently completed repairs from the July flood. It got flooded again, but not as badly as in July.  They hope to reopen fairly quickly.  

Most of the flooding in Johnson was confined to basements, despite the Lamolle River reaching its fourth highest crest on record, Some houses in Johnson and elsewhere affected by this week's flooding had not yet been re-occupied since the July inundations.

Judging from the comments from state officials at this afternoon's presser about the flood, it looks like Vermont will be angling for another federal disaster declaration with this latest storm. 

State officials urged people who suffered fresh flood damage to take pictures, note everything that was damaged and save receipts. They should then report these damages online to vermont211.org.

That information will help state officials aggregate damage estimates to report to FEMA and other federal agencies.  

Meanwhile, state and local officials are cleaning up streets, unclogging culverts and catch basins to prepare for the next big rainstorm, whenever that might hit. (Spoiler: Nothing coming through Christmas Day at least).

Flood warnings remained in effect along several Vermont rivers, but they were all receding. The flood warnings should be all gone by tomorrow. 

RAINFALL TOTALS AND FORECAST

Map of rainfall from the storm in Vermont and northern
New York from the National Weather Service office
in South Burlington. Heaviest rainfall as across
southeastern and central Vermont. Click on the 
map to make it bigger and easier to se. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington compiled a comprehensive list and map of rainfall totals across Vermont and surrounding areas from this storm. 

The heaviest rain fell in and around Brattleboro, with more than four inches there. Other reports include 4.27 inches in Quechee, 4.17 in West Bridgewater and 3.96 inches in Worcester. 

Overall, the heaviest rain fell precisely where the National Weather Service office in South Burlington predicted it would. Same with the lighter totals in far northern Vermont and in a pocket around central Rutland County. 

 It's just that the rainfall totals were somewhat higher than predicted. That, and a lot of snow melt, made the flooding worse than anticipated.  

The weather forecast remains quiet through Christmas and quite possibly beyond. The snow showers today didn't amount to much, if you got them at all. Some spots in northern Vermont saw a dusting to an inch. 

Tomorrow will be seasonable and dry. Wednesday and Thursday look kind of on the chilly side and dry, followed by a warming trend for the Christmas weekend. There might be a bit of very light snow Saturday, but that's about it. 

Our next shot at any kind of storminess is at least a week away. 

Did Florida Botch Hurricane Ian Evacuations, And Did That Result In Unnecessary Deaths?

Extreme storm surge destruction from Hurricane Ian in 
Fort Myers Beach, Florida.  Should evacuation orders 
come sooner before the storm?  That's a hot debate
going on right now. 

Amid the rising death toll in Florida after Hurricane Ian, there's been a lot of chatter over whether evacuations ahead of the storm were botched, leading to additional casualties. 

The focus here is on Lee County, Florida, which contains the hardest hit communities, such as Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Sanibel and Pine Islands. 

As of yesterday, the death toll from Hurricane Ian had climbed to 109 people, including 55 deaths in Lee County. This toll is expected to rise further. 

The quote I keep hearing from people who didn't evacuate because forecasts had the storm going further north, toward Tampa.  I think this highlights how people don't understand the nuances of National Hurricane Center forecasts, despite their efforts to make things clear. 

National Hurricane Center forecasts include a projected path of a hurricane, along with something called the "cone of uncertainty."  Meteorologists draw a line suggesting where they think the eye of the storm will go.  Their maps include a shaded area on either side of this line.  That's the cone of uncertainty.  It indicates forecasters' suspicion that the storm could actually travel to the left or right of the projected path. 

The future paths of hurricanes are notoriously difficult to forecast. Every time the NHC updates their forecast, they update the expected path and also change.

On top of all this, the National Hurricane Center will often note, as they did in their forecasts for Ian, that dangerous conditions could well occur outside the "cone of uncertainty."

The storm hit on Wednesday, September 28, For more than five days before Ian hit, Lee County was within the "cone of uncertainty" or at the very least on the edge of it.  The National Hurricane Center also issued a storm surge watch at 11 p.m. Sunday, which raised the real possibility of that destructive storm surge in Lee County. The storm surge watch was upgraded to a warning at 5 p.m. Monday, September 27, which meant a life threatening storm surge was inevitable. 

However, Lee County officials, apparently clinging to earlier forecasts that Ian would head toward Tampa, did not order evacuations until Tuesday morning, just a day before the storm hit. 

That didn't give much time for people to get their act together, gather their stuff, pack their cars, and crawl through bumper to bumper traffic to get out of Dodge.  Meanwhile, to make things more difficult, tropical storm conditions had already started in the area by Tuesday afternoon.

Also, the National Hurricane Center did not extend hurricane warnings southward to include Lee County until Tuesday morning, the day before it actually hit.   The late breaking hurricane warning might have contributed to complacency in Lee County. 

As the Washington Post reports, both Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and President Biden's FEMA administrator, Deanne Criswell defended the delayed evacuation.

"Just 72 hours before landfall, the Fort Myers and Lee County area were not even in the cone of the hurricane,' Criswell said on ABC's This Week.  'And is continued to move south, the local officials immediately - as soon as they knew that they were in that threat zone - made the decisions to evacuate and get people to safety.'"

Again, this appears to me to be people who should have looked at the details and known better. It's true that at one point about 72 hours before landfall, Lee County was on the edge of the cone of uncertainty. 

I'm aware that I'm Monday morning quarterbacking, but honestly, local and federal officials should have recognized that Ian was an unusually large storm, so it would have wider ranging impacts than other storms. 

I think officials were remembering Hurricane Charley, a ferocious Category 4 hurricane that hit the same region back in 2004. However, Charley was much smaller in size than Ian.  Charley was essentially a grotesquely overgrown tornado that carved perhaps a 20 to 30 mile wide path of extreme wind damage. But the storm surge with Charley wasn't all that bad. 

Small-sized storms like Charley can't generate a daunting storm surge like a much bigger storm like Ian can. 

Another thing that should have been considered: Even if Hurricane Ian traveled well north of Lee County, its position would have still placed it in a storm surge danger zone.  On the east side of a northward traveling hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, strong south to southwest winds would push an enormous amount of water toward the Florida Gulf Coast. 

This surge would hit well east or south of the hurricane's eye. For instance, Naples, Florida is a good 43 miles south of Fort Myers. Naples still got nailed with destructive storm surges. 

Here's one thing the Washington Post reported that I was unaware of, and I guess emergency officials in Lee County didn't know:  Generally speaking, there's still a 30 to 40 percent chance that any given hurricane will travel outside the cone of uncertainty. I'm wondering if this fact should have been better known. 

Hurricane Ian was tied for the fifth strongest hurricane on record to strike the United States. Life saving evacuations ahead of such an extreme storm are incredibly complex.  Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center are among the best of the world, but science is not there yet in terms of accurate forecasting the power and path of hurricanes.  

Despite superhuman efforts, forecasts of the strength and track of hurricanes are usually a little off even 24 hours before they hit, never mind three or four days ahead of the strike. This alone makes evacuation decisions hard.

Hurricane Ian hit a low-lying section of Florida whose population is rapidly rising.  This also makes evacuations and planning more difficult. Plus, climate change is making hurricanes even more unpredictable. More of them are rapidly intensifying just before landfall, like Ian did. Climate change is making the hurricanes even wetter, so flooding can be worse with these things. 

We'll continue to see plenty more finger pointing about evacuations ahead of Hurricane Ian.  It's too late to save anyone who died in the hurricane.  It's imperative we learn the lessons of this one. Powerful hurricanes can hit the United States coastline anywhere between Brownsville, Texas and Eastport, Maine, along with our island territories.

We will see plenty more Hurricane Ians in the future.  Lessons learned from Ian may one day save your life.  

"Iowa's Katrina": Slow Response To Huge Disaster Cripples Cedar Rapids, Other Cities

The derecho that ravaged Iowa hit nine days ago, and only now are people starting to pay attention to what some in that state are calling "Iowa's Katrina." 

Major damage in Iowa from the August 10 
derecho. Winds likely reached as high as
140 in a few spots. This is a huge disaster

The slow response to such a big disaster is a little shocking considering the scale of destruction. Close to 90 percent of all properties in Cedar Rapids alone received at least some damage. 

More than 1,000 homes in Cedar Rapids have declared uninhabitable.  Statewide, more than 8,000 homes are damaged or destroyed. Many people are going on a week and a half without electricity.

At least 14 million acres of Iowa crop land were damaged or destroyed, up from the estimate of 10 million acres reported last week. 

The lack of help has caused scenes that did remind of Katrina. There is inadequate shelter, so you have people living in roofless apartment buildings, or in tents outdoors. Children and their parents are surrounded by dangerous debris, including lots of boards with rusty nails, soggy drywall, building mold problems, wires dangling and a tangle of fallen trees. 

"It feels like I'm in a third world nation, this to me seems as if its our version of Katrina minus the deaths," said Cedar Rapids resident Kelly McMahon, as quoted by television station KCRG the other day.  "Five days in, where in the world is our government helping us out?"

Attention is finally focusing on Iowa, days later than it should have.  Major media outlets have swooped in to tell us all about it. Donald Trump was in the state yesterday pledging federal help.  People in other parts of the nation are now looking for ways to help.  Charities and GoFundMe pages are appearing.

Still, this is different from other major American disasters. Usually the response is almost immediate. Not this time.

WHY DID THIS HAPPEN?

From what I can tell several factors have influenced the lack of response to the destruction in Cedar Rapids and elsewhere in Iowa. 

Iowa is not exactly the media center of the universe.  Local television stations and newspapers were on top of it from the start and did incredible work. But the force of the storm was initially missed by national media.

Derechos are lines of intense thunderstorms covering long distances. I think they can often be dismissed as severe thunderstorms, the kind many of us get every summer. People do know that derechos are more widespread and destructive than regular storms. But this one was way, way, worse and we outside Iowa were slow to realize this. 

It took time to understand the scale and breadth of the storm strength and damage. It's pretty easy to see the direction and strength of a hurricane slowly lumbering onto a shoreline city.  A derecho roars through in  just a few hours, and you don't immediately understand the scale and area hit hardest.

National Weather Service meteorologists over the past week who have been studying the damage tell us the storm was stronger, and covered a larger area than first reported. True, we had a report  immediately after the storm of a 112 mph wind gust in one town.

But meteorologists now say that winds in a few spots likely gusted to 130 mph.  There's at least one report of an estimated gust to 140 mph.  An accurately measured gusts reached 126 mph. This was a more intense derecho than most experienced meteorologists can ever recall.  Gusts of 100 mph sometimes occur in the worst derechos, but 140 mph?

The destruction was worse than many of us would have expected because we're used to severe storms lasting only a five, ten, maybe 15 minutes at most before they move on. This lasted 45 minutes in any given spot, helping to add to the damage.

 It was hard to get the word out about the destruction in the immediate aftermath of this storm.  Power was out to virtually everyone, and communications were spotty at best. Most private citizens upload videos of storms to YouTube and other social media as soon as a storm is over.  Most people in Iowa couldn't do that.  I didn't start seeing some of the more dramatic videos until days after the storm.

I think a main reason, if not THE main reason why help for Iowa is slow is because we're dealing with so much already.  The pandemic.  Black Lives Matter. Chaos in Washington. Other disasters that keep coming one on top of each other, unrelentingly.  We're all exhausted and confused.  

As I write this, wildfires are rapidly worsening in California and moving into populated areas. This could be another enormous disaster in the making.  What would be our reaction to that? The Atlantic Ocean is now bubbling with new hurricanes a possibility soon. It any of these storms grow monstrous storm and God forbids hits the United States, what then?

The only time I've seen a natural disaster in the United States with an anemic response at first was Hurricane Katrina in 2005.  But that disaster was on a much bigger scale than "Iowa's Katrina" this month. Katrina cost at least $81 billion in damage. 

I worry as we get into the heart of the deadly late summer/autumn season of destructive wildfires and dangerous hurricanes, people in need won't get the help they require. I don't have confidence the Trump administration has the capacity or the desire to provide coordinated aid.  The federal response to the pandemic, as we all know, has been pretty pathetic so far, despite the efforts of heroic medical professionals and essential workers.

As terrible as the Iowa derecho was, as devastating as it was to Iowa farmers and homeowners and residents, this disaster wasn't nearly as bad as some of the worst calamities this nation has faced in recent decades. 

I don't know how we step it up for the inevitable next disaster, but we sure have to try.   

More videos: 

The storms lasted a LONG time. This video goes on for a half hour  but it's worth watching. Gusts through most of the video keep increasing.  People must have thought it would never end. A huge gust would come, then it would calm down a bit, likely leading people to think the worst was over. Then an even bigger gust would come. Rinse and repeat as the storm kept escalating. Watch:

Here's a video explainer from a budding Cedar Rapids entrepreneur who was in his painting business shop as it was destroyed. Spoiler: He survived, and seems to have a remarkably good attitude. But still!  Both terrifying and sad. Things get really horrifying starting about 3:40 or 3:45 into the video:

Inside Edition's report on the derecho: