Typical Vermont: The Clouds Roll In Just In Time For Today's Eclipse Moment, But Still A Spectacle.

 Welcome to eclipse day in Vermont! 

This is a cloud forecast map for eclipse time
this afternoon from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.
Red areas are where forecasters expect high, thin
clouds, with potential to still have a decent
view of the eclipse. Green is mid-level clouds
which wouldn't be great. Blue is low clouds
which is a worst case scenario for eclipse watching. 

And along the rest of the path from Mexico, and from Texas to Maine and on into southeastern Canada. 

Here in Vermont, if only we could hold on to the skies that greeted us at dawn. There wasn't a single cloud out there. As the sun rose, the sky was as blue as possible. 

ECLIPSE CLOUDS

No good weather goes unpunished in Vermont, as you know, so the clouds will roll in today right before the eclipse starts. 

I'm still not saying the clouds will completely ruin the spectacle.  Not even close. It will still be so, so worth stepping outside to check it out. 

It could have been many, many times worse.  Could you imagine what a cold, wet mess and disappointment this whole eclipse thing in Vermont would have been had it hit during our huge spring snowstorm last Thursday?

But if only the clouds would come in like three hours later than currently scheduled. Alas, that is not to be. Except maybe in the Northeast Kingdom, which might hold on to the clear skies. In general, the view will get worse the farther west you go.  

Western Vermont should be at least be so-so.  The Adirondacks and the rest of northern New York will probably have the worst viewing in the region. Northern New Hampshire and Maine look to be spectacularly clear. 

Thank goodness they will be higher, somewhat thinner clouds.  A lower overcast would be much worse.  Places like Texas, Arkansas, Pennsylvania and western New York along the path of totality will struggle with those lower, thicker clouds during the event. 

It is fun to watch the sun slowly get eaten up by the moon getting in the way. That part of your eclipse task today might be problematic, but not impossible, as you'll sort of see the sun through the high clouds.  In the Northeast Kingdom, you could be in fine shape, as the clouds might not make it there until the sun is in the process of re-emerging from behind the moon. 

As far as the spectacle of it going dark, with odd light and shadows in the sky and landscape, we're still golden here in Vermont.  I'm still expecting quite a show. 

The forecast for this hasn't changed much since last evening. It's still looking like low clouds, which would really mess things up, will stay to our west, in western  New York. We'll have high clouds, so most of the time during the eclipse hour, the sun should at least weakly shine through. That is until the moon gets in the way, of course. 

GREAT VISIBILITY 

Here in Vermont, we will have absolutely no low clouds, fog, precipitation, haze or wildfire smoke to obscure the landscape. The humidity in the air will be quite low today, so that helps put everything in sharp relief.  

This is the view from where I will take in the eclipse
today. Skies were brilliant blue when I took this
photo at 7:15 a.m. today.  High clouds will
interfere with the eclipse view at least somewhat
by the time it rolls around this afternoon. 

The view of the mountains, lake, clouds, forest, fields, town or city wherever you are in the path of totality today will be as good as it possibly can get. 

I'd suggest parking yourself in a spot that has wide ranging views, where you can see mountains and hills and fields for a large distance. If you're on shore of Lake Champlain, or on a hill, that will probably be your best ticket.

Just remember to set up shop in a public place that's off the road and easy to access.  Don't go onto private property unless you have explicit permission from the landowner. 

And please, please, stay on the paved roads. The dirt roads are a mess from all the snow that melted yesterday. On paved roads, I'd be super careful if you're tempted to pull over onto the shoulder. It's a safety thing as you'd partially block traffic. And the sides of the roads are soft and muddy, too, so that can get you stuck.

Many places still have snow on the ground, and that snow will be rapidly melting and creating lots more mud today. 

TEMPERATURES

For outdoor comfort, you really can't get better than this for early April in Vermont. It was chilly and frosty this morning, but the sun will really warm up the air. 

Remember earlier how I said the humidity is really low today?  Dry air really reacts to the sun. The temperature can change much more rapidly than if it were damp or humid out there. Which means the   eclipse weather looks like it will be really interesting. 

In the valleys, the temperature this morning will rocket upwards through the 30s, 40s and 50s, maybe touching 60 degrees by 2 p.m.

The eclipse will hit right when we normally have peak heating for the day.  The eclipse will begin at around 2:15 and the amount of sunshine coming in will decrease.  With totality, it will get colder.  The rule of thumb is the temperature usually goes down by about five degrees during an eclipse.

I wonder -  since the air is so dry - whether the temperature will drop more than that five degrees. And I wonder how much the temperature will recover once the eclipse is over, since it will be late afternoon by then. 

In any event, bring a jacket, even if the sunshine feels really warm in the early afternoon. 

GOING HOME

For those heading home to wherever they came from after the eclipse, there should be no travel trouble, other than thick traffic. No rain, snow, sleet or fog anywhere near us. 

A good suggestion is to wait until tomorrow to leave Vermont so you don't have to deal with so much traffic this evening. That's a great plan in terms of weather. No inclement weather is in the cards for the region until Wednesday, when some rain showers will creep in. 

Sunday Evening Vermont Eclipse Forecast: Trending Cloudier

St. Albans Bay. Vermont, around 3:30 pm. today, just 24 hours
before the eclipse. Would have been nice if it happened
today instead of tomorrow, when high clouds will
very likely make the view of the event somewhat fuzzy.

 Today would have been a great day for an eclipse, huh? 

Morning clouds quickly scoured out to reveal a blue bird day. It was a fine spring day close to Lake Champlain, where the snow had disappeared, and a gorgeous late winter day where the snow remained. 

Of course, this being Vermont, you can never have the weather you want, when you want. 

Forecasts keep trending cloudier for the hours around the eclipse on Monday.  By cloudier, I definitely don't mean to say the eclipse will be a no-show.

You will still see a spectacle, but it won't be a crystal clear view like you would have gotten today. Monday will start off cloud-free, but you'll see more and more of those high clouds as the late morning and afternoon progress. 

The clouds Monday afternoon still look to be high and thin, so most of us in Vermont should still sort of see the sun disappear behind the moon. The darkness that takes over will still be really cool. Those high clouds will also probably make some interesting colors and features in the sky.  

It's VERY important to note the thin clouds will not protect your eyes at all. You MUST wear those special eclipse glasses if you're looking up at the sun and following the progress of the eclipse. You can take the glasses off only during the total eclipse, when the sun is completely hidden. 

Horizontal visibility will remain excellent at eclipse time.   No fog, no haze, no wildfire smoke. So you'll see how the eclipse affects distant mountains, lakes and clouds as it progresses. During the total eclipse, you'll see a little light in the distance, in places where the eclipse already passed, or is yet to hit.  

Bottom line: The increasingly cloudy forecast is by no means a complete disappointment. Not even close. 

A low overcast with fog would have been exponentially worse than the expected conditions Monday afternoon. Had we gotten that low overcast and mist,  a dark dreary day would have just gotten much darker for a little while. Yawn. 

So we're still doing well.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington noted that they had to adjust forecast high temperatures downward under and near the path of the eclipse.   Highs in the valleys without the eclipse tomorrow would probably have been in the 60 to 65 degree range.

But the timing of the eclipse - more or less around the time of peak heating - means meteorologists had to trim back expected highs to between 55 and 60.  Tomorrow will probably not be the warmest day so far this spring because of the eclipse.   

I'm sure we'll get over that "disappointment." Temperatures will also probably fall by at least five or six degrees during the eclipse, then partially recover afterwards. 

Hopefully the cloud forecast won't get much worse. I don't think it will. The high clouds will be caused by a dying warm front approaching from the southwest. An active or sharpening warm front would have thrown even more clouds our way. 

So all in all, we're still doing pretty well with this thing in Vermont. 

Not Done With The Snow Showers Just Yet. Questions About A Future Storm?

A snowy, bright scene during a brief interval of blue skies
and sunshine Tuesday.  Despite snow showers this morning
and chilly temperatures through tomorrow, an overall
warm pattern means we might not actually have
a white Christmas this year. 

 As expected, snow showers buzzed through parts of Vermont last night, laying down at most an inch of snow, with most places just getting a dusting. 

Roads got a little slick, again, as expected, so there were some iffy patches.

If you're heading to work this morning, you might run into a little more of that. Roads aren't all that bad, really, this Wednesday morning, but we're not done with the snow showers.

Patchy snow showers, some of them moderately heavy, were moving toward northwestern Vermont as of 7:45 a.m. this morning. They could reduce visibility and quickly turn roads icy this morning. 

(By 8 a.m. it was looking pretty ominous, snow wise, just to the west of my perch in St. Albans, Vermont).

The snow showers might continue to early afternoon before tapering off.  Accumulations will be an inch or less, except possibly a little more in the mountains. Especially the Adirondacks and maybe far northern Green Mountains. 

These snow patches and bursts are associated with a series of what are essentially little cold fronts coming through. It's mild this morning, with temperatures near the freezing mark.  Instead of rising, temperatures will hold steady or slowly fall through the day. Northwest winds will add to the chill.

Again, no big deal for December, but the snow showers, the visibility issues and the icy patches on the roads are all worth taking into consideration. 

Aside from seasonal temperatures today and tomorrow, the overall pattern for us and pretty much the entire Lower 48 is mild conditions. Possibly lasting through Christmas. 

That makes the prospect of a white Christmas iffy in many Vermont locations, despite snow on the ground in many spots now. 

Forecasters are looking at a weird, strong storm that will come out of the Gulf of Mexico and hit Florida and maybe other areas of the Southeast with heavy rain, high winds and severe thunderstorms by Saturday. There's a chance it could move up the coast and give us some bad weather early next week.

Early bets are that it might mostly miss us here in Vermont. Some computer models hit us with heavy rain and possibly snow, but many other runs of the models take the storm a little too far east to bother us too much. 

There's a lot of  time for changes to the forecast.  Once we get toward the weekend, we'll start paying more attention to that system to see if it will affect us. Until then, expect some relatively mellow Vermont weather with near and above normal temperatures.