Tumultuous U.S. Weather Pattern Has Started, Could Get Worse: Storms, Temperature Whiplash

Some flip flops in the weather patterns will keep
meteorologists hopping for the next few 
months. After cool weather in the East,
there's some hints of warmer air 
in the second half of the month. 

Almost every year, in the late fall and winter, we get spells in which the weather pattern flips around in a big transition or even bunch of transitions.    

When that happens, our weather in the U.S. can get wonky. 

We've just entered one of those transformations  in recent days. So expect some weather weirdness, which could get more extreme once we get past Thanksgiving. 

The weirdness began in age days ago. 

We started out with dozens of record lows in the southeastern United States last week, thanks to air that came directly from Greenland to normally balmy places like Georgia and North Florida. 

Wilmington, North Carolina  experienced their earliest in the season snow flurries on record.  Lumberton, North Carolina had 0.1 inches of snow, their earliest measurable snowfall on record

Then the heat turned on in the Great Plains over the past couple of days. 

On Saturday, cities in Texas and Oklahoma reported their hottest November temperatures on record, including 93 in Frederick, 92 in Lawton, and 90 in Ada, Hallmark, Allburton and Sand Springs. 

The temperature reached 92 in Wichita Falls, Texas, and 90 in Lubbock for new November records. 

On Friday, Minneapolis reached a record high of 72 degrees. It was the warmest on record for so late in the season. Des Moines and Ames, Iowa both reached 74 degrees for record highs. Perhaps the weirdest high on Friday was 83 degrees in Yankton, in southeastern South Dakota. 

That's awfully far north for 80 degree weather in mid-November. 

The next odd thing was the storm over the weekend in southern California. Los Angeles had two inches of rain over two days. The normal rainfall for the entire month of November there is 0.8 inches.

There were widespread reports of minor flooding, mud flows and downed trees, but the damage was not as bad as some feared. 

UP NEXT 

The weather pattern across the Lower 48 will experience large changes over the next few days and weeks. 

It won't be all that exciting at first. Over the next few days, fairly routine weather systems will cross the nation this week, not enough to generate big weather headlines. In the middle of a weather pattern adjustment, storms can get a little disorganized and lack power as a result. That's what's generally happening now. 

Then things could get interesting. 

But that warmth in the Northeast might not last. NOAA
is hinting at colder weather again over the Northeast
in the first half of December. 

It looks like we're in for two big pattern changes, and that can blow up some big storms this time of year.  

Long range forecasts for the second half of November suggests a possible switch from chilly to somewhat above normal temperatures here in the Northeast, though the NOAA forecasts are hedging a bit.

The West would turn cool.  Between the two extremes, some of the computer forecasting models are trying to sniff out a fairly large storm around Thanksgiving. 

It could even be one of those Great Lakes "gales of November" storms made famous with the Wreck of the Edmond Fitzgerald. 

But we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves. Trying to forecast a storm this far in advance is kind of a fool's errant. Anything - or nothing - can still happen. 

DECEMBER CHAOS? 

Those milder temperatures, even if we get them, might not last much past Thanksgiving weekend. Even longer range forecasts suggest a return to cooler than normal weather for the first half of December. Those December forecasts also lean slightly toward above average precipitation, which might translate into another snowy period. 

I'm seeing hints of the first truly Arctic air mass of the season cross the border from Canada into the United States toward the first of December. Again, that's set in stone, but early December is the time of year somebody in the northern United States starts to see below zero temperature.s 

There's yet another wrinkle in the long range forecast beyond Thanksgiving. 

It's complicated, but here it goes:

Something called a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event is taking place high in the atmosphere over or near the Arctic. This happens from time to time in the winter, but this one is oddly early in the season. 

For whatever reason, a layer of the atmosphere 6 to 31 miles up, above where weather happens, it disrupts the polar vortex.

As you might remember, the polar vortex is a huge whirl of cold air that usually stays up north, fairly close to the Arctic.

When the polar vortex is strong, it tends to keep frigid air bottled up far to the north of the U.S. and Europe. 

A sudden stratospheric event weakens the polar vortex and can displace it. The jet stream gets wavy and wonky, and you can get extreme cold and winter storms in parts of  North America, Europe and Asia.

The click bait out there is telling us we in the U.S. can essentially expect practically a new ice age as a result of this by mid-December. 

Don't hold your breath that one. 

The reality is it's possible we could get a strong cold wave, or some nasty winter storms. Or we might not. Maybe the really cold air will go toward Asia or Europe. Or the polar vortex won't get all that messed up. If that happens things might not get unbelievably wonky. 

The bottom line is, the weather has gotten more interesting in the past week, and it will probably stay on the more interesting than usual side for the next few weeks. 

What "interesting" means is TBA.  

Vermont March Warm Spell Nice, But Odd Temperature Spikes Increasingly Common This Time Of Year

I took a screen shot of some of my
saved iPhone images from last 
spring for some color. Spring
heat waves have been getting
more frequent and more intense
in Vermont, a likely sign of 
climate change.

 Starting today, at least some parts of Vermont will see highs in the 60s for five consecutive days.  That's unusual for this time of year, of course. But it's becoming less unusual.

 There's an increasing trend toward very odd temperature spikes in late February, March and April across the Green Mountain State.  This is all a likely sign of climate change at work.

This week's weather is another example of how some pretty wildly warm spring weather has become much more routine in Vermont. 

The strong spring sun can bring temperatures to brief, summer-like levels this this time of year on relatively rare occasions.  Back in 1945 and 1946, temperatures reached the 80s in Vermont in late March.

After that, we went another 30 years before another 80-degree day came on March 30, 1977.  The frequency of such hot days slowly continued to ramp up.

On March 15-17, another big early season heat wave hit.  It hit 83 degrees in Rutland on March 16, 1990, easily the earliest 80 degree reading on record in Vermont. 

 In Burlington, temperatures soared to 78 degrees,  on March 16, 1990. At the time this was by far  the hottest for so early in the season. The 72 degrees on March 15 that year was also easily the earliest 70 degree reading on record for the season.   At the time, I considered that an unbreakable record, but wait for the spoiler. 

Then, just nine years later, another boffo March heat wave hit. Burlington tied its all-time record high for March at 84 degrees. The all-time Vermont wide record for hottest March day was set in southeastern Vermont, with 88 degrees. 

Four years later, it was an April heat wave that broke records.  Until 1976, it had never been known to be at or above 90 degrees in April in Vermont. That year, 1976, a very strange hot spell brought temperatures to 90 degrees and above on April 18 and 19. 

That was widely considered to be something you can't beat. But sure enough, on April 17, 2002, it was 90 degrees in Burlington, taking the place as the earliest 90 degree reading.

More spring records kept falling. In 2012, an unprecedented early season heat wave graced Vermont in mid-March. At at time of year when normal high temperatures are in the low 40s, daily high temperatures in Burlington on March 18-22 were 76.79. 80, 81, 81.  That helped March, 2012 become by far the hottest on record for Vermont. 

In 2016, Burlington set a record for earliest in season 70 degree reading on record on March 9.  That record was shattered a year later when a winter hot spell brought temperatures to 72 degrees on February 25, 2017.  That shattered the record for hottest February day in Burlington by nine degrees.

In 2018, another similar late February heat wave brought temperatures to 69 in Burlington, 70 in Montpelier and 71 in Rutland.

All these stats I threw at you boil down to one statement. Late winter and spring ain't what it used to be in Vermont. 

Once upon a time, this forecast for five 60 degree days in a row in March in Vermont - like we have now - would have been almost unprecedented. With climate change, such warmth has practically been relegated to boring early spring conditions.