Not Just Us: Winter Keeps Trying To Crash Spring's Party

The weather pattern is switching to a chilly, potentially
frosty one for the next two weeks at least, so our early
spring looks like it will go on hold, or worse, actually
suffer some damage. We'll see.

 Most of the last of this past week's snow is melting from New England high country today, as spring tries to battle back from that last wintry setback. 

Despite an early spring over much of the nation, winter in the past few days has increasingly tried to crash the party more and more aggressively.  That state of affairs will continue for the next week at least.  

So while spring will continue to try and assert itself, winter is going to win some last chance battles.  The weather pattern has really switched to a cold one for most of the nation east of the Rockies. 

By the way, those at risk for some stinging, damaging frosts and freezes include us here in Vermont, at least eventually. More on that further down in this post. 

Winter's echo began at the end of last week, as we well know. While we were getting our spring snowstorm in Vermont and the rest of New England, parts of Colorado, Wyoming and Nebraska were dealing with their own winter blast. 

Several thousand people lost power around Denver as several inches of wet snow collapsed some trees and wires.  Like here in New England, Colorado has had some pretty good warm spells this spring, so trees were beginning to leaf out. That's bad when there's snow, as the slush accumulates heavily on the leaves, forcing branches to break.

About seven inches of snow accumulated around Denver. That's not even close to their biggest April snow on record, but it was a set back. Wyoming and Nebraska also dealt with snow and slick roads Friday. 

More snow is likely in the Denver metro area Monday as a colder weather pattern settles into the eastern two thirds of the nation.

Believe it or not, a typhoon way out in the western Pacific Ocean near the Philippines is contributing to this weather pattern.  It was a Category 5 as of this weekend, the strongest you can get. As it heads north, it will help disrupt the weather pattern in a way that makes cold snaps more likely in the eastern and central United States. 

In the northern Plains, where temperatures were at record breaking readings as high as 90 degrees or so earlier this month, the early spring buds have been getting nipped by frost in the past few days. 

On Monday and Tuesday, temperatures are forecast to sink into the teens in North Dakota and 20s in South Dakota. A winter storm warning is up for tonight and Monday in South Dakota's Black Hills for more than six inches of snow. 

There will no doubt be frost and freeze warnings in the central and southern Plains and parts of the Midwest in the coming days. 

Freeze watches are already in effect for Monday night as far down as northern Texas and Oklahoma Monday night.  There could even be a little snow and freezing rain in the Texas Panhandle Monday night. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

For us in Vermont, a series of storms and cold fronts will eventually threaten crops and gardens around here. Possible worst case scenario: You know how the trees are starting to green up?  It could possibly get cold enough to wreck those tender new leaves, meaning trees would have to start over, turning a record early spring into a remarkably late one. 

That bad scenario is not cast in stone and probably isn't even likely, but it could definitely happen in the upcoming weather pattern. It's one that will last awhile, too.

The first cold snap will come later Wednesday and Thursday, but this first one doesn't look frigid enough to cause any damage. A nice rainfall looks likely Wednesday. That's a good thing, because despite all the rain and snow in recent days, we still need more. 

Thursday and to a lesser extent Friday look blustery and chilly in Vermont.  Thursday would feature highs not getting out of the 40s with rain and snow showers. Wednesday night through Friday night would get into the low to mid 30s. Most of us will probably touch the freezing mark, but it won't be cold enough long enough to cause any trouble with plants. 

I'm more worried about a second cold front next Sunday.  At this point, that one looks like it could drive some very chilly air into the North Country. It's way too soon to say exactly how cold it would get, but it's possible we could see temperatures fall well into the 20s at night, possibly near 20.

Normally in late April, such temperatures are not that big a deal, because fruit trees, gardens and decorative flowering shrubs aren't usually far enough along by now to be affected by that kind of weather.   

But the warm spring means everything is as far along as they normally are in mid-May.  If the forecast holds, we could see some real agricultural losses, and a disappointing absence this spring of leaves and flowers.

Some weather models overdo anticipated cold snaps this far in advance and that could well be the case here. So what I outlined above is a worst case scenario.  Chances are it won't be that bad. Time will tell. 

The weather pattern does not look like it will turn warm again for the foreseeable future. Those days upon days of temperatures in the 60s ad 70s we experienced aren't coming back through at least early May, I'm afraid. 

Final Words On Spring Snowstorm, But Will It Snow Again?

 Phew, that was fun!

A photo from Shrewsbury, Vermont looks like it was taken
in January, but it was shot on Friday by Carmine
Iannace @Carmine_Iannace  via Twitter

Maybe not for some early garden plants, but the spring snowstorm that hit a good chunk of New England and New York is done. 

The storm that caused this spring mess is only slowly tottering away from the New England coast, so today will be a cloudy, cool day, with maybe a scattered light shower or two. That could be snow up high, but we're just talking flurries. 

Here in Vermont, snow totals were pretty impressive at high elevations. The big winner appears to be Searsburg, at a 2,250 elevation in southern Vermont, with 14 inches. West Wardsboro reported 12 inches, and Shrewsbury reported 10.5 inches.

The afternoon burst of snow Friday was especially impressive along the east slopes of the Green Mountains in central and parts of northern Vermont. As of dawn yesterday, accumulations were meh, but by the end of the day, we had reports like 10.5 inches in Warren, 10 inches in Vershire, and 9.1 inches in East Barre.

The soaking nature of the storm was a godsend, as it had been so dry.  A little over a week ago, a little over half of Vermont was in moderate drought. By Thursday, just before the rains hit, the drought had spread to virtually the entire state.

It was a long duration event, so rain and snow ever so slowly soaked into the ground rather than running off.  Rain and melted snow amounted to about an inch statewide, which was a more widespread soaking than many expected just days before the storm. 

Remember, at the beginning of the week, forecasts called for the storm to pretty much miss northern Vermont entirely. 

Lots of snow in the air yesterday in St. Albans, Vermont

You can see the soaking nature of the storm in river levels across the state.  Sure, water levels rose, but not by all that much.  That suggests the bulk of the rain and snowfall is percolating into the ground, rather than just rushing off on the surface and having little impact.  

This storm did not end droughty conditions in Vermont, but put a nice, sizable dent into it

A new storm midweek promises more help.  It won't be as robust as the storm that just ended, but early indications are it could produce another half inch or so of rain.  

Also, we might not be done with the snow just yet.  It looks like cold air will blow in as the midweek storm slowly departs, giving many of us a little more snow. We shall see! 

I took a little video during a break from work during a burst of snow Friday afternoon around my property in St. Albans, Vermont.  It's below. Click on the YouTube logo to make it bigger and easier to see. 

New England Winter Storm Over-performed Today, Impressive Snows

Daffodils struggling a bit with today's snow in my
 St. Albans, Vermont gardens. 

The winter storm that started engulfing parts of the Northeast last night really decided to escalate unexpectedly, at least to me.

The snow managed to spread all the way down to the coast of New England. For a time, the snow extended into Vermont's Champlain Valley this afternoon as well. 

That spreading outward of the snow during daylight hours is especially impressive for this time of year. 

The high springtime sun angle allows heat even through the type of thick clouds we had today. That normally would have been enough to make temperatures creep up a bit.

This, in turn would prevent the snow from extending to low elevations during daylight hours, and should have made even some slightly higher spots switch over to rain. 

But the storm, especially its upper air support, grew stronger, allowing a cool pool of air overhead to get even colder. So places that had been raining switched to snow, at least for a time late this morning and this afternoon.

The snow in the low spots still had a hard time accumulating. I only managed to see 0.3 inches here in St. Albans, Vermont. As of this writing, just before 6 p.m., there's still a mixture of light rain and snow falling.

In some parts of southern New England this was among the larger late season storms on record. Parts of northwest Connecticut reported 6 inches of snow. Some towns in central Massachusetts received eight inches. 

Here in Vermont, amounts were really impressive in the high elevations in the southern half of the state. 

So far, I've seen reports of 11.1 inches in Winhall,  10.8 inches in Ludlow; 10.5 inches in Shrewsbury and Bridgewater; 10 inches in Mount Holly and Athens and 9 inches in Vershire.

A couple factors going on now will - I think - minimize additional snow tonight  There could be a few more inches in some favored high spots. But a somewhat drier tongue of air is pushing in from the east, which would lighten the precipitation this evening a lot. 

Snow dusting my St. Albans, Vermont yard
this afternoon.

That means less cold air being driven down from aloft, so some places that switched to snow will go back over to light rain or drizzle. 

We seem to be in the process of doing that now here in St. Albans, we'll see. I also see places that had been snowing in southern Vermont earlier today had switched to rain by late afternoon.

I think the storm has reached peak intensity, so despite the setting sun, air aloft might start to warm ever so slightly, which will help keep additional snow out of the valleys. The storm is also getting ready to slowly depart, and stagger off to the east, out into the Atlantic Ocean. 

This storm did certainly help with drought relief. It didn't solve all the problems, but it certainly helped! The immediate problem of bone dry farm fields and gardens has disappeared, as has the brush fire risk. At least for now. 

As of late this afternoon, Burlington had received just over an inch of rain and melted snow out of the storm. Down in southeastern Vermont, Springfield was a little over 1.5 inches of rain and melted snow from the storm by late afternoon. My very unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans clocked in with about two inches of water so far.

The snow that many of us have on the ground will melt very quickly.  Tomorrow won't exactly be warm, but highs well into the 40s will put a dent in the accumulations in the somewhat higher terrain. Even warmer air is likely at Sunday and Monday, so spring will return.

Next up, there's a lot of uncertainty about the intensity and temperatures associated with a system due here around midweek. This next one could also involve a little snow, but not nearly to the extent we experienced today.  

Spring Storm: Snow Up High, Especially Southern Vermont

Vermont Agency of Transportation web cam from
Route 4 in Mendon, Vermont early this morning.

The spring snow and rain storm spinning over New England and New York was, as of 6 a.m., playing out almost exactly as forecast.  Snow is plastering high elevations, while some warmer valleys continue to get rain. 

There are some quirks going on, with southern Vermont valleys and central New England also getting in on the snow.  

Northern valleys are actually a touch warmer so most of those low elevation spots have so far kept with rain, with no snow. 

Overall,  expect a chilly, raw, wet, and some cases white day today through this evening.

As expected, the storm center itself is temporarily stalling over southeastern New England. Its upper level support was a little to its west over roughly south central New York early this morning, which is a normal arrangement for a storm of this type. 

That's what's helping cause the quirks I mentioned.  The upper level storm is a cool pool of air aloft.  It's helping translate the weather down to the surface. It's cooler near this upper low, so snow is more widespread in places like the Hudson Valley of New York and the lower Connecticut River Valley and in parts of Massachusetts and northwest Connecticut.

Places a little further north are actually a bit warmer, so low elevations of northern Vermont were mostly rain. 

You could see this in the 6 a.m observations.  It was 32 degrees and snowing at a 574-foot elevation in Springfield, Vermont.  Web cams along relatively low elevation Interstate 91 in Hartford and Weathersfield just after dawn showed snow on the ground and trees sagging under the weight of snow 

The cold spot seemed to be down in Albany, New York,  elevation only 285 feet above sea level, was close to the upper low.  It was only 30 degrees there with snow falling at 6 a.m. 

Meanwhile, up at Saranac Lake, New York, a notorious cold spot pretty high up in the Adirondacks at 1,663 feet,   it was snowing, but the temperature was slightly warmer, at 32 degrees. In Burlington, it was a "balmy" 38 degrees.

Some northern areas were getting into the snow act around dawn. Web cams along Interstate 89 in Brookfield showed heavy snow falling shortly before 7 a.m. and the highway looked slushy.   Secondary roads in the high spots are surely slick.

As of 6 a.m., the wet snow was contribution to around 3,000 homes and businesses without power, mostly in Windsor County. 

Even low elevations in southern Vermont are getting snow,
closer to the cold upper level low. This is a Vermont
AOT webcam along Interstate 91 in Hartford.

We'll get many more snow reports later, but the spotty early reports include seven inches in Landgrove 4.4 inches in Athens, Vermont, 4 inches in Plymouth and Woodstock, all in southern Vermont. In the north, Williamstown reported 3 inches so far.   

There's still a chance the warmer northern valleys could see some snow mix in this morning,  especially during periods when precipitation is heavier and can drag down cold air from aloft. 

Still, this remains mostly an elevation and southern Vermont/central New England snow. 

Since this storm is such a slow mover, expect light rain and snow to continue all day and into this evening.  Snow will continue for a few hours this morning even in the valleys of southern and central Vermont, and in parts of central New England.

The sun angle is high this time of year, so despite the thick clouds and cold upper low nearby, it will warm up just slightly. Enough so that by afternoon, sow will exit the valleys and be confined to elevations above 1,500 feet.

We needed all this moisture, as I've been mentioning so often, so even the snow is more good than bad.  Burlington had 0.67 inches of rain Thursday, which isn't extraordinary, but it was the wettest day since January 16. And of course more rain is falling today.

At my very unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans, Vermont, I had collected 1.2 inches of rain as of 7 a.m. today.

A bit more good news in the rain department: It's starting to look like a cold front coming in the middle of next week will be a little slower and wetter than first thought. Let the rains continue! 

Quick Thursday Evening Storm Update: Still Going To Snow In Mountains Amid Welcome Rain

Thursday evening snow update from the National
Weather Service in South Burlington. Some of 
the mountains expect lots of snow, but the 
valleys should get little to none. 

It's been raining all day across most if not all of Vermont today, and the wetting has been most welcome. 

As of 5 p.m., Burlington had received 0.52 inches of rain today.  That's not a tremendous amount of rain and nothing unusual for a single day.  

Still, it's the wettest day since February 16 and as the rain continues, we'll probably see today as the wettest day all year. It's not huge, but we'll take it.

The late Thursday afternoon forecast updates show that expectations haven't changed at all since this morning. The mountains of New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and western Maine are in for a pretty big snowstorm late tonight and Friday. 

Those areas, mostly above 1,500 feet in elevation, are still looking at six to 12 inches of snow. It will still take awhile for rain to go over to snow except on the highest peaks.  As of 4 p.m. today, the tippy top of Mount Mansfield was getting close, as the temperature there was 36 degrees.

The rain has been well-distributed throughout Vermont today, with even some brief periods of heavy rain over the Champlain Valley late this afternoon.

Though rain and snow will continue area wide tonight, it will become more focused on southern Vermont as the coastal low develops and becomes the dominate weather maker. 

Way up high in the southern Greens, this could mean LOTS of snow.  The National Weather Service in Albany, New York said some of the highest peaks in southern Vermont could receive 15 inches of wet snow.

Even six inches of wet snow can bring down trees and power lines, so power outages are a good bet later tonight and Friday in some high elevation towns, especially south. 

It still looks like many valley locations will see some snow Friday morning, but accumulations are still looking light. 

Also unchanged is the forecast for the rest of tomorrow and tomorrow night. Light snow and rain will go back to all rain in the valleys, but temperatures will stay chilly. It probably won't break 40 degrees. Snow will continue in the mountains, but will taper off Friday night. 

Overall, total rain and melted snow still looks to be around an inch, but closer to two inches in some favored southern Vermont towns and only a half inch or so in the Northeast Kingdom. 

The weekend looks OK. Saturday will be generally cloudy and a bit chilly, but it will be seasonable and at least partly sunny Sunday - back up in the 50s.

  

A Perfect Rain, And Not So Perfect Snow For Vermont Next Couple Of Days

Yes, the dreaded snow prediction map from the National
Weather Service in South Burlington has been
re-activated. High elevations can expect
six or more inches of snow from the upcoming
storm. We need the moisture, though.

It was another mild morning in St. Albans, Vermont today when I took the dogs outside but with a HUGE difference from the way this month had been going so far.   

For once, this morning, there was no dust to be found. Everything was wet from early morning showers.  The air had that sweet springtime pungency I absolutely delight in every year as the plants and flowers drink in the moisture. 

Such a wonderful contrast to the clouds of dust I stirred up in the gardens yesterday.  It's all good, even if today will be too rainy to work out in the gardens.

Being Vermont, we have to take the good with the bad, and yes, it is going to snow again.  It looks like most of us will get some snow, even many of us in the Banana Belt valleys.  But it also still looks like the real winter storm drama will be confined to the higher elevations. 

That mild feel to the air this morning will slowly fade into a chill as the day wears on and the rain continues. An cold, upper level low settling into western New York is feeding today's rain and slowly falling temperatures. 

That upper low will encourage and steer that nor'easter we've been talking about toward coastal New England by early tomorrow morning. The upper level storm will capture our nor'easter and make it sit and spin over southern New England for most of the day Friday. 

The cold air pool of air aloft will become well established overnight and Friday.  Snow will probably start to appear on mountain summits of New York and Vermont late this afternoon. The snow levels will descend to valley floors by the pre-dawn hours tomorrow

In the valleys, the air will remain just a little above freezing, which will make it hard for snow to accumulate, especially since the ground is so warm. I imagine lots of us could see an inch or two, especially on grassy and elevated surfaces. Your daffodils and hyacinth might get flopped onto the ground, but will rebound when the snow melts later Friday. 

At least for this go around, your shrubs and trees that are blooming and budding way too early should be fine.  It won't get cold enough to harm tender growth. (We are at risk for a more damaging freeze later next week, so stay tuned).

For your morning commute tomorrow, main roads will probably be just wet or perhaps a little slushy, except on bridges and overpasses, which might be a little more slick.  

Daffodils and hyacinth drink up this morning's very
welcome rain showers in my St. Albans, Vermont 
gardens. These flowers might be dusted with
snow within 24 hours. 

Climb up in elevation late tonight and Friday, and you will have that full blown winter storm on your hands. 

A winter storm warning is up for mostly the high elevations of southern and central Vermont, along with much of New Hampshire and western Maine. 

Wet snow will accumulate pretty rapidly, especially at elevations above 1,500 feet late tonight and Friday morning.  

The heaviest precipitation with this storm will be in southern Vermont and parts of New Hampshire, so high elevation accumulations could reach six to 12 inches, with more than a foot at summit level. 

Travel over mountain passes will be hazardous at best.  Power outages will be a problem, too, in these higher elevations. 

With the storm pretty much stuck over New England Friday, light rain and snow will continue all day.  Snow levels will rise with the "heat" of the day, but heat is really a relative term here.  It'll be a raw, breezy day, with most of us not even cracking the 40 degree mark.  

That'll be a shock to the system, since we've gotten used to the balmy 60s and 70s we've experienced for more than a week now. For reference, normal high temperatures for this time of year are at a happy medium between these two extremes - mid 50s. 

The snow is surely a bummer for those of us who love spring, but this storm is a total godsend. 

The rain, and occasional snow will be slow and steady, and last a long time. Now that precipitation has started this morning, it pretty much won't end until at least tomorrow evening. The slow, soaking nature of this storm is just perfect in terms of denting our drought. 

Total rain and melted snow is expected to amount to around a healthy inch, with a little more than that in southern Vermont and a little less in the Northeast Kingdom.

As for that snow you might find on the ground, it'll quickly melt, even as temperatures this weekend stay well below the toasty readings we had the past week. The melting snow will keep adding moisture to the ground. All good.

We'll need several more soaking storms to fully erase the dry conditions, but the weather today and tomorrow is a nice start, or at least a nice break.  

No new, big storms seem to be on the horizon after this one, but some showers will probably make it back into the picture midweek. Maybe the anti-rain force field has been removed, or at least weakened?  I really hope so! 

Rain, And Yes Snow Coming To Vermont; Will Help Slightly With Drought

Back to snow covered flowers for some of us in Vermont
Thursday night and Friday, but hey, we need the 
moisture in any form we can take it. 

With everything greening up much earlier than usual this spring, the last thing people enjoying this want in Vermont is a winter storm. 

But, a few parts of Vermont are in for just that situation Thursday night and Friday.  The odd thing is the prospects of snow are actually a very good thing. 

Any kind of moisture at this point will be so welcome.  Even if that moisture is snow. 

I guess the weather gods heard us complaining about the current drought in the Green Mountain State and wanted to help out with a bitter sense of humor. So, for some of us, snow it is!

A winter storm watch is up for the southernmost two counties of Vermont, and up into Windsor County, and the high elevations of eastern Rutland and Addison counties.  This will be an elevation storm, with the places in the six inch plus club for snow being up above 1,000 feet, and more likely up above 2,000 feet in elevation. 

Most of us valley dwellers will see a cold rain, probably mixed with wet snow flakes at times. 

Projections for this storm have been creeping northward over the past few days, which gives us in northern New England a better shot at precipitation than in earlier forecasts. Which of course I'm really happy about. Dusty gardens in Vermont during April is definitely weird and scary. Let's hope this precipitation actually plays out, now that we have our hopes up. 

According to current forecasts, you'll really start to notice the change from the long, oddly warm spell we've had. Under a cloudy sky, temperatures will struggle to make it into the 50s. Then light rain will start, spreading southwest to northeast across our area.  As the rain begins, temperatures will fall into the 40s. 

This initial rain will mostly be from a disturbance coming in from the west. Meanwhile, a nor'easter will form along the the Mid-Atlantic coast and move into coastal New England Friday. This scenario will pivot moisture back into western New England, which gives at least some of us a welcome soaking. 

Snow levels in Vermont will fall overnight Thursday, and even many valleys will see that rain/snow mix late Thursday night and Friday morning. 

The mountain passes over the Green Mountains, Routes 9, 4, 73, 17 and 125, and maybe Interstate 89 near Brookfield will probably see full blown winter storm conditions overnight Thursday and into Friday with heavy, wet snow.  It's possible some of the high elevations in far southern Vermont could see a foot of sloppy snow, with six inches more plausible in the lofty spots further north. 

Power outages will likely be an issue up high as well. 

Friday will be cold, raw, wet breezy day as the nor'easter lingers near the New England coast. A light, cold rain will probably continue most if not all of the day, with snow up high.  Snow levels will rise Friday as it is mid-April.  Some heat from the sun will get through the clouds to "warm" us up a bit. 

Still, temperatures will stay close to 40 degrees all day even in the "milder" valleys. 

Total rain and melted snow at this point. looks like it will amount to an inch or a little more in far southern Vermont, down to a half to three quarters of an inch north and west of Interstate 89, with even a little less than that in the Northeast Kingdom.

This won't be nearly enough to solve our drought problems, but it would certainly help. Keep doing your rain dances in hopes of this scenario becoming reality. 

The weather will slowly improve Saturday, but it will remain slightly cool for the season.  Then we pop back up to near 60 degrees Sunday and into the first part of next week.

During this storm, temperatures will stay at or a little above freezing, even at night, so early plants that have greened up outdoors should survive. If you have tomato starts or other tender things like that out on your back deck, you'll want to bring them indoors for this storm, but otherwise, gardeners should e all set.  Just enjoy the needed moisture. 

We'll certainly need quite a bit more rain even if forecasts for this storm prove accurate. There are chances for rain next week, but if, how much and when is still open to a lot of debate.