Wednesday Evening Vermont Storm Forecast: Some Tweaks But Not Huge Changes

The National Weather Service forecast snow map ticked
up just a little bit with snowfall accumulations from this 
storm. Expect a decent 8 to 14 inches of snow for 
most places north of Route 4. Note this map only
goes to 1 p.m. Thursday, and a couple inches of snow
are likely after that time in much of Vermont. 

Skies over Vermont - as expected -  went from nice deep blue this morning to a high gray overcast by afternoon as that expected winter storm draws closer. 

Also as expected, the National Weather Service in South Burlington has made a few tweaks to the forecast, but in general it's still mostly what we've been expecting for a couple days now. 

Precipitation overnight and early tomorrow looks a little heavier than originally expected over Windsor and Rutland counties. That presents an opportunity for a little extra snow there before sleet mixes in. So, the National Weather Service has extended the winter storm warning a bit further south to cover all of those two counties.

The big thump of snow, which will comprise the bulk of the storm total, is still expected between roughly 11 p.m. tonight and 8 a.m. Thursday. 

Snow rates will get lighter during the day and might even stop at times. It also looks like a little freezing rain and sleet might advance a little further north than early expected. If that happens, it would be a mid-afternoon and early evening type deal. 

The ice will just add a little bit to the mess. It won't accumulate enough to wreck trees and power lines, which is a good thing. Especially considering that very scenario of tree and power line damage is still happening from Iowa to western New York. 

HOW THIS WILL AFFECT YOUR LIFE

I'm sure many of you have prepared for the storm already.  You picked up some groceries, gassed up your car, that sort of thing.  I noticed this afternoon the line at the liquor store was a little longer than usual. 

The storm will blow in between about 7 and 11 p.m., going southwest to northeast across Vermont. 

For the very few of you planning on driving around between, say midnight and 4 a.m. fuggettaboutit. It'll be snowing pretty hard, and the state snow plows don't really do much at that hour. 

For the larger group of people who need to drive to work or take their kids to school during Thursday morning rush hour, you might want to reconsider.  Check your local listings, because a lot of schools will probably be closed.

See if you can work from home. Tell your boss you'll be less frazzled and more efficient if you can work from your comfy home office. If you have to drive in, it's going to take a lot longer than usual, so plan ahead. This won't be blizzard of the century, so the roads will stay open. They'll just be treacherous. 

You're also going to wake up to a vastly different landscape than you saw today. Back in the good old days, before  climate change really became a factor, a snowstorm this time of year was called the "Crown of Winter Storm."

Snow would have been piling up all winter, and a storm this time of year would typically bring us the deepest snow of the winter. After about now the forces of spring would begin to gradually eat away at the snow cover.  

Clouds thicken up Wednesday afternoon over Georgia,
Vermont as a snowstorm approaches. The landscape is
nearly free of snow, which is very strange for this time
of year, but things will look much different by tomorrow.

In many Vermont valleys this year, there's oddly no snow on the ground. If this storm over-performs, I suppose it could be a Crown Of Winter Storm.  The deepest snow all of this winter was 11 inches. If we get a foot, I guess this storm qualifies. 

You might be lulled into a bit of complacency midday.  We'll see a little light snow, sleet or freezing drizzle during the day, but it might not amount to much. It might lead you to think the storm is over. But not really. 

Toward evening, snow, sleet and freezing rain will pick up again. The ice will be most prevalent in central and southern Vermont. But again, it won't be a disaster. Mostly an annoyance. 

The snow or mixed won't come down  nearly as heavily as it will early in the morning. But it will be noticeable. 

The drive back home from work or wherever won't be great, I'll tell you that. 

The snow will be mostly over Friday, aside from snow flurries in the valleys and mildly accumulating snow showers up high. But it will be colder than a witches.... oh never mind, just cold.

The National Weather Service forecast maps indicate 6 to 12 inches of new snow north of Route 4 by 1 p.m. tomorrow. With additional snow Thursday night, storm totals north seem like they'll be in the 8 to 14 inch range.

So it'll be a decent storm for sure, but not a record breaker. South or Route 4, sleet and a little freezing rain should hold totals to six inches or less.  

Highs will barely make into the teens and lows Friday night and Saturday morning still look like they'll be below zero for most of us. 

It'll warm up sort of by Sunday as a weak storm passes by to the north, bringing in some slightly warmer air. 

Another, somewhat more substantial storm seems due Monday night or Tuesday. That storm, at least for now, has trended colder, so we're somewhat more likely to see more snow and less mixed precipitation.

But the weather pattern is volatile, so I'm to hanging my hat on that distant prediction just yet. 

 

Wednesday Morning Update: A Weird Stormy Nation. Snow/Sleet To Hit Us In Vermont

A very colorful National Weather Service map means
a very stormy day for the U.S. All those pinks and
reds from Oregon to Maine are winter storm
and blizzard warnings. 

 As advertised, it's as stormy and weird in the U.S. as it can get as a strange weather pattern of very cold air in the Southwest, with unprecedented warm to hot air in the Southeast has become established. 

That kind of huge contrast always leads to storminess and that's definitely happening now. Vermont update is below, but I have to pause and look at how bizarre the weather is once again in the United States. 

STORMY, WEIRD NATION

The weather set up was  already getting volatile, judging from the strong storms and likely tornado in Mercer County, New Jersey on Tuesday that damaged a number of buildings. The National Weather Service will make a determination later today whether to confirm the storm as a twister.

A continuous line of winter storm warnings extends from eastern Nevada to coastal Maine, at least if you include the Canadian version of a winter storm warning over southern Ontario and Quebec. 

Blizzard warnings are embedded in that band in parts of Wyoming, the Dakotas and Minnesota. 

An  ice storm is still on deck in a long narrow strip from central Iowa, through the southern parts of Illinois, Michigan and Ontario, Canada and into western New York. 

Some severe thunderstorms and possibly a tornado might occur today in parts of Oklahoma and Missouri, though luckily this does not look like it will be an intense outbreak. 

In California, Arizona and Nevada, high winds will buffet the region to make the unusually cold air feel even chillier. A cold storm in southern California in the coming days will produce some lowland flooding, and snow as low as 1,000 feet above sea level. That means the famous Hollywood sign could be covered in snow. People there have not seen snow that low in decades.

A rare blizzard warning is up for the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Up to a foot of snow could fall at the 2,000 foot level, which is, again, incredibly low. Up to five feet of snow could pile up in the summits above 4,000 feet by Monday. I believe this is the first ever blizzard warning issued by the National Weather Service office in Los Angeles.

Meanwhile, a huge area of the Southeast is set for all time record high temperatures for February. Readings of 80 degrees or above are forecast Thursday as far north as Washington DC.

VERMONT UPDATE

The Wednesday morning updated snowfall prediction map
from the National Weather Service office in South Burlington,
Areas north of Route 4 are expecting a solid 6-12 inches.
Less in southern Vermont due to a mix with sleet. 

With all these contrasts and that volatility, it's inevitable that we'll have a storm.  It's been advertised all week, and it does arrive tonight. 

The winter storm watch has been upgraded to a warning roughly north of Route 4.  A winter weather advisory is up along and south of Route 4. As expected, we've seen some minor adjustments in the snow totals. It looks like most places north of Route 4 can expect a solid 6 to 12 inches out of this. 

Areas to the south will see a bunch of sleet mix in especially as we had toward dawn tomorrow. That will keep accumulates down to four or five inches. 

On the bright side, the layer of warm air aloft that's producing the mixed precipitation is thick. That means rain will re-freeze on the way down to become sleet. There won't be much freezing rain, which is liquid and freezes on contact into a glaze when it hits the surface. 

It looks like the snow will start in southwestern Vermont at roughly 7 p.m. tonight, spread into central Vermont by around 9 p.m. and cover the north between 10 p.m. and midnight. 

The first wave of snow, and southern sleet will be the heaviest, coming through mostly between midnight and dawn Thursday.  A rumble or two of thunder is not out of the question during this. It will be challenging on the roads tomorrow morning, so I expect a lot of school closings and delays and trouble on the highways. 

I still see  a risk of a forecast bust with this. If the warm air aloft pushes further north than expected - which might happen - the heavier sleet would get further north into at least central Vermont, too. 

Most of Thursday will be in a sort of lull with light snow and sleet falling most of the day, but not amounting to a huge amount. The sleet mix looks like it might make it at least as far north as Route 2. 

Another wave of precipitation, not as big as the first, will come through later Thursday and Thursday night. This wave could have a little freezing rain with it in southern Vermont.  Northern Vermont will probably get another few inches of snow,  Some sleet might mix in across parts of the north Thursday evening, but that will trend more toward snow overnight. 

This storm will also end a remarkable 18 consecutive February days in Burlington that got above freezing. (Though it was below 32 degrees most of Wednesday, it was in the mid-30s just after midnight).

You'll be digging out in some real cold air on Friday. Highs will only be in the low teens with temperatures below zero in most places Friday night and early Saturday. 

A small storm will fling a few snowflakes at us amid milder temperatures Sunday. Another larger, messy storm seems likely Monday night and Tuesday. 

   

Tuesday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Still Big Snow/Sleet Questions

The latest update this afternoon from the National 
Weather Service office in South Burlington favors
northern and central Vermont for the most snow with
the upcoming storm, but questions remain about
the forecast, and the possibility of ice. 

 As we get close to 24 hours away from the beginning of our long awaited winter storm, there's still big questions about it. 

Where in Vermont where the heaviest snow set up? How far north will the sleet and freezing rain get? Where there is ice, how much will fall, and how much will any ice cut down on snow accumulations. 

Still, it's pretty clear that we're in for some rough weather, be it snow or ice. As of last report, they winter storm watch is in effect from Wednesday evening into Thursday. 

You could kind of tell there's a volatile weather situation by the type of weather in the Northeast today. A weaker storm sent some gusty rain and snow showers through Vermont late this afternoon. Some severe thunderstorms with hail and damaging winds hit northeastern Pennsylvania and southwestern New York. 

As for the main storm, the thinking continues to suggest the most snow will focus on  northern and central Vermont and the least the further south you get in the state. But there's some questions about that 

As the National Weather Service office in South Burlington reports it, some of the models focus the heaviest snow on far northern Vermont, with more than six inches of snow. there.  Less snow would accumulate in this scenario in the southern half of the state. That's because there would be more sleet and freezing rain.

On the bright side, if it does go to ice in southern Vermont, it so far looks like it won't be enough to cause a lot of tree and power line damage. That's a contrast to points west, in western New York, southern Ontario, southern Michigan and parts of Illinois. In those spots, they are forecasting a lot of power outages. 

In another model scenario, the best moisture would be across south central Vermont, and that part of the state would get the most snow. Again, more than six inches. In this version of things, the sleet and freezing rain would be limited to far southern Vermont. Far northern Vermont would get roughly six inches or a little less.

I have no idea which of the two scenarios is more plausible at this point. 

In any case, the first thump of precipitation would come Wednesday night. It'll start in earnest in southwestern Vermont at around 7 or 8 p.m. Wednesday, and spread through the rest of the state between 8 and 10 p.m. 

The heaviest snow will probably come down roughly between midnight and 8 a.m. Thursday. So Thursday morning will be the worst of it if you have to drive anywhere. 

Sleet and freezing rain could start before dawn in far southern Vermont. As noted we don't know how far north it will get. However, whatever comes out of the sky during Thursday late morning and afternoon would probably be much lighter than that initial thump. 

The landscape around Vermont will be radically different by Thursday. In the valleys as of today, it's strangely snow free. It looks like late March, not late February. Our world will return to late February by Thursday.

Relatively light snow will probably continue into Thursday night and at least the first part of Friday behind the storm. As noted this morning, it will probably get pretty cold early Friday through Saturday. 

A lot of us will wake up to subzero weather Saturday morning.

After that, the weather pattern will remain active, but of course it's too soon to say what types of storms we'll get, or whether they'll amount to much. 

A Windy Vermont February Contrasts With An Oddly Calm January

Gusty winds sweep through some pine trees in 
St. Albans, Vermont on Sunday. February has been
a rather windy month in Vermont,
especially in the Champlain Valley

 It's been pretty windy in Vermont, especially in the Champlain Valley this month. 

Including today, 13 of the first 20 days of this February have seen wind gusts at or over 30 mph in Burlington. Winds got up as high as 50 mph on February 7. 

These winds have not been enough to cause a lot of damage, unlike the 71 mph gusts in the pre-Christmas storm back in December. 

But still, the winds have tempered the unusual warmth of this month by providing a little bite of wind chill to these mild days. 

In a way, the wind we're seeing is sort of a sign of spring.  That's why we have the famous March winds. 

It's just that they're a little early this year. The sun's angle is increasing, so it's getting a little better at heating the ground. The heat from the ground creates updrafts. Those updrafts get high enough to reach stronger winds a couple thousand feet overhead, and mix those winds to the surface.

The nice thing about these windy days is they tend to mix out and dissolve low clouds and fog. It still might well be overcast with these winds, but at least horizontal visibility stays pretty good. .

Of course, we can get strong winds in December and January on the power of any passing vigorous storm that passes through. 

This January, though, I counted only four days with winds of 30 mph or greater in Burlington. This helped make the month especially gloomy. Many days in January had us hunkered down under low clouds, fog, drizzle and snow flurries. 

It looks like windy days will continue off and on for the foreseeable future, as several storm systems will help stir the air. Plus we head into March and its gusty days soon.

So, hang on to your hats!

Video: Another windy day in St. Albans, Vermont on Sunday.  Click on this link to view or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Storm Update: Winter Storm Watch Now Up For Vermont; Among Two Dozen States Under Alerts

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington
has taken its first crack at how much snow they
expect from the storm starting Wednesday night.
This map shows most places seeing six to 12 inches,
with less in far southern Vermont due to mixed
precipitation. Expect adjustments to this forecast
in the next day or two. 

 Just a quick update this morning on our looming winter storm. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington has gone ahead and popped up a winter storm watch. It's in effect from Wednesday evening through late Thursday afternoon for most of Vermont. 

By my count, Vermont is now among 22 states under a winter storm watch, warning or blizzard warning. This stretches from Oregon and Washington to Maine. 

Before we get to the main event, a smaller storm will trigger valley rain showers and mountain snow showers this afternoon, trending toward all snow this evening. 

 There could be brief, heavy snow squalls harassing us in a few spots.  Accumulations will be mostly less than an inch in the valleys, with maybe a few inches way up near the Green Mountain summits.

After a quiet and increasingly cloudy Wednesday, we'll start getting into the main show Wednesday night. 

A warm front separating record warm air well to the south from seasonably cold winter air over us and to our north sets the stage of this thing. The warm front extended this morning all the way west to Iowa. 

Rushes of warm, wet air running up and over this colder air are triggering the winter weather.  Some places will be hit harder than others. Minneapolis, for instance, is bracing for a paralyzing storm that could well be one its largest in history. They're expecting perhaps 20 inches of snow with winds gusting to over 35 mph. 

Don't try to go to Minneapolis this week, kiddos!

It doesn't look like it will be that bad here in Vermont, but it looks like we'll still take a pretty good hit. 

A storm will run west to east along the warm front Wednesday night and Thursday. The clash of warm air vs cold air will be so strong over us Wednesday night and early Thursday that we will have a good burst of heavy snow.  There's even a chance we could hear a rumble or two of thunder. Yes, thundersnow!

Current forecasts have most of us receiving six to 12 inches of snow, but that forecast will surely be refined up or downward in some areas, depending on where things set up.

A huge complication with this storm is a band of freezing rain and sleet that will set up from northern Illinois all the way to somewhere in New England. 

Southern Michigan, southern Ontario and parts of western New York seem set up for a damaging ice storm with this thing. 

Once again, it probably won't be as bad in Vermont, but ice will still be a danger. Especially in far southern Vermont.  Some forecasts call for isolated ice amounts as much as a quarter inch. At that point, you begin to run into a little tree damage and some power outages.

Sleet could extend as far north as Route 2 on Thursday.  Not sure on that yet. By Thursday afternoon, the precipitation won't be coming down as heavily as it did earlier.  Again, expect some adjustments to this forecast. 

It will be colder than we've gotten used to during this storm, especially in northern Vermont. Temperatures Wednesday night and Thursday will barely make it to around 20 in northern Vermont. Not a big deal for late February, but colder than it's been.

An Arctic cold front and another wave of low pressure will bring possibly heavier snow showers Thursday night.  This will also put us in a deep freeze for Friday and early Saturday.  It'll probably get a little below zero Friday night and stay nippy Saturday.

Like the even more intense cold wave earlier this month, this will soon go away. By Sunday afternoon, it should be in the low 30s, which is about normal for late February. 

Weird U.S. Weather Week Starts, We'll Wait A Few Days For Our Turn In Vermont

The map on the home page of the National Weather Service
is getting colorful, especially west. That means plenty
of weather alerts due to a developing, sprawling storm.
These colors will spread east in the coming days 
with the storm.

 As advertised, a week of weird, extreme weather has started in much of the nation.

I noticed this  morning the National Weather Service hone page map is getting quite colorful. That's always a sign of weather trouble, because the colors depict various storm warnings, watches and advisories. 

It will keep spreading eastward as time goes on, finally hitting us in Vermont Wednesday night through Thursday night. 

Yesterday, we already talked about the record heat expected in the Southeast this week. 

If the East is warm, chances are the West will be cold, and that's definitely the case. Snow levels this week could drop as low as 1,000 feet above sea level in the Los Angeles area. Places like the foothills in the San  Fernando Valley which almost never see snow have a good shot of experiencing some flakes later this week.

Passes over the mountains, like the I-5 Grapevine, could become impassable. Expected high temperatures in Los Angeles later this week are only in the low 50s. That's a good 15 degrees below normal.

I'm still impressed by how much snow is expected over such a huge area of the nation from the storm that is developing. 

Winter storm watches and warnings, with a few embedded blizzard warnings this morning stretched all the way from near the Oregon coast to Wisconsin. Those watches and warnings will almost definitely be extended all the way to northern New England by mid to late week. 

The central and northern Plains and the upper Midwest are used to snowstorms, but this one looks a lot deeper than  your traditional winter fare.

Forecasters are already giving the Minneapolis-St. Paul area a 90 percent chance of seeing at least a foot of snow. More than two feet is not out of the question. 

At least a foot of snow is forecast from Wyoming to Wisconsin as well. There's a chance snow that deep could reach Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, but that is still iffy at the moment. 

South of that broad band of snow, forecasters have increasing fears of a damaging ice storm in a large band extending from northern Illinois, through southern Michigan, southern Ontario, western and central New York and on into southwestern New England,

That ice threat is not cast in stone quite yet. But if it develops, a lot of people are going to lose electricity for some time. 

VERMONT UPDATE

Though things can radically change, it's still steady as she goes for the forecast for the mid to late week storm here.

A small system today, and a slightly larger one tomorrow will spread some spotty rain and snow through the state. We could see enough snow to create slick spots on some of the roads Tuesday. But only a dusting to two inches is in the cards. That might be mixed with rain in the valleys.

The main show still looks like it will run Wednesday night to early Friday morning. The expected snow will wax and wane during that time. Still, an early read on this suggests we could get a foot or more of snow in at least some parts of Vermont. 

We also have the question of how far north sleet and freezing rain reaches. Southern Vermont is still most at risk for this .

The models have trended a bit colder this morning for this storm, which would favor snow. The problem is, the models could easily flip flop back to warmer air aloft. So it's still a big question mark as to what exactly will fall from the sky over Vermont mid to late week. 

Major Temperature Contrasts Spell Stormy U.S. Trouble For Upcoming Week (Vermont, Too!)

5:30 PM SUNDAY UPDATE

Sheets of ice from Friday's freezing rain, sleet and hail
slowly melt and slide off my roof in St. Albans,
Vermont on Saturday. Mild weather should 
continue for a few days, with a potential big
storm by around Thursday.

Little change in the forecast since this morning, but it looks like winter will make an appearance later this week and possibly last awhile.

All indications are we should see a good thump of snow on Thursday. There's still the possibility of mixed precipitation of course.

Somebody will probably get a very nasty, damaging ice storm out of this. But, fingers crossed, at this point the worst ice

looks like it might be very roughly along a Buffalo, New York to southwestern New England line, 

Obviously, that forecast could change pretty dramatically. Stay tuned.

Of course, I don't want anybody to have a damaging ice storm, but, selfishly, I'd rather it not be in Vermont. 

After the storm departs around Friday, it's looking like we'll have the coldest weather since the brief Arctic outbreak on February 3-4.  This one won't be as bad as that, but some of us could easily go below zero at the end of the week or the beginning of the weekend. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Hang on to your hats. Another round of weird weather extremes is about to hit the U.S. This includes widespread record warmth, severe weather, tornadoes, widespread snow and freezing rain, and strong winds.   

We here in Vermont will be included in some of this fun. More on that further below. There's a lot to unpack here, so let's get started. 

RECENT RECORDS 

Before I get into the upcoming weird week, I have to touch on the weirdness of this past week. 

As I said in previous posts, we had our share of record highs last week in Vermont. At Burlington we managed to get to 33 degrees just before midnight Saturday. That brings us to 14 consecutive days that got above freezing, quite an incredible streak for a Vermont February.  

Tuesday or more likely Wednesday will be the first subfreezing day since February 4.   

Elsewhere, several cities hit all time record highs for the entire month of February. They included 70 at Kingston, Rhode Island and New Bedford, Mass; 71 in Islip, New York and Groton, Connecticut.  New York City had its warmest February overnight low on Thursday, only dipping to 58 degrees. 

By the way, after record warmth in Vermont Wednesday and Thursday, Springfield, Vermont managed to eek out a record high of 49 degrees Friday before the icy cold front reached them. 

All this has led to a premature spring in the East, which will probably end in a destructive freeze sometime in March. Daffodil shoots continue to grow at my house in St. Albans, Vermont, barely a 20 minute drive from the Canadian border. Magnolias are blooming in Washington DC. Honeysuckle and lilac leaves are beginning to sprout as far north as New York City. 

Such extreme early signs of spring does make one worry a bit more about climate change. 

EASTERN SPRING GETS WEIRDER

This dangerously early spring will continue. Record warmth is likely in much of the eastern U.S. outside of New England later this week, which will just be sort of warm-ish for the season.   

The whole weather pattern is setting up to feature big temperature contrasts, which are a recipe for storms. Some of which could possibly be dangerous. 

The warmth coming up in the Southeast looks like it will be just wild. Temperatures are forecast to reach 90 to 95 this week in much of Florida, which could break all time records for the month of February. Normal highs in central Florida this time of year are in the mid-70s.

Temperatures later this week could get to 80 as far north as Virginia. 

One forecast map out of many for Thursday. The 
idea shows a wide ranging, coast to coast storm'
to cause a variety of nasty to dangerous 
weather, including here in Vermont. 

There's been a ridge of warm high pressure over the Southeast pretty much all winter. This brought a mostly springlike winter for most places east of the Mississippi River. That "heat ridge" will intensify further this week. 

Of course, it is winter, so it's cold north and west of the the Southeast heat ridge. 

That has led to a parade of storms that have unleashed repeated severe weather and tornado outbreaks near the Gulf Coast, repeated winter storms in the central and northern Plains, and our own weird misery of rain, mixed precipitation and warmth here in Vermont. 

While the Southeast bakes, record lows should hit parts of the West Coast this week. This big, big contrast means storms. 

We are looking at a big storm to form in the middle of the week. Big at least in the size of the area it will cover. Snow will fall mid to late week from Washington State across the northern tier of states all the way to Maine. 

Somewhere just south of that, it looks like a broad stripe of freezing rain and sleet will extend from the Plains to New York, Pennsylvania and New England. Or at least near those places, give or take. 

The storm will generate yet another round of severe storms and tornadoes in the Deep South Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Strong winds will blow in large parts of the Midwest, Plains and Rocky Mountains. 

The weather is really going to be in the national news later this week. 

VERMONT EFFECTS 

It looks like the Green Mountain State will escape any major weather until about Thursday. At that point, things look like they'll get interesting to say the least.

Before we get there,  we've got a couple little storm systems to deal with. Neither will mess up your life too much. 

The first and weakest of the storms comes through tomorrow. It will just spit out some valley rain showers and maybe some snowflakes in the mountains. Look for less than an inch of snow up high, and enough rain to barely wet the ground in the lowlands.

Another, slightly strong storm is scheduled to zip through west to east Tuesday and Tuesday night. Again it'll be warm, so we'll see some rain and snow showers.  The storm's cold front Tuesday night might produce brief, somewhat heavier snow showers. But this won't be a tremendous storm, either.

Then the potential biggie.

Remember that large zone of record heat building in the Southeast?  The incoming storm will cause a big rush of that super heated air to start flowing northward. Meanwhile, dense, cold air will build up in Quebec. 

We won't feel that record hot air. Instead, it will be forced to glide up and over that dense cold air. Rising air means precipitation. Since the air is so warm and coming in such a rush, and that cold air will create such lift, we have some potential to see some heavy precipitation of some sort. 

Problem is, we're not sure yet exactly what will fall out of the sky.  

The early thinking is it'll start as a thump of pretty heavy snow, followed by a surge of sleet and possibly freezing rain. Then it would flip back to snow at the end late Thursday or Thursday night. 

That's just an early guess, though, and this storm could still turn out much differently than that.

We don't know how far north in Vermont the mixed precipitation will reach, though it seems most likely in southern parts of the state. There's a decent chance of at least some of us seeing a good six inches of snow or more. Maybe even much more. But we don't know the ins and outs of that, either. 

We also don't know if the weather in Vermont will get as weird as it did Friday, with those sharp temperature contrasts, thunderstorms, hail, ice and whatnot. 

As we get closer to the event, meteorologists will surely, gradually iron out the details. At this point, if you have travel plans, I can tell already that Thursday will not be your day.