Friday Evening Vermont Winter Storm Forecast: Still Big Statewide; Amounts Increased South

This afternoon's updated snow accumulation forecast
from the National Weather Service in South Burlington.
The only big change from this morning is a forecast
for much more snow than previous thought in
southern Vermont. Amounts reduced a tiny bit
since this morning in far northwest Vermont. 

 As of late afternoon Friday, our big winter storm is still on the books for late tonight and Saturday, and it still looks like a doozy. 

No surprise, the winter storm warning is still in effect, and has, in fact, expanded

The headlines are basically the same as this morning, but as you'd expect, changes are happening in the forecast and still will continue to do so. 

There's still a high bust potential on the forecast because the storm is just now compiling itself into one unit.  Unexpected things could happen.

For now, though, the expected snow accumulations haven't changed much since this morning. Broad brush,  most of Vermont except the far south can expect 12 to 18 inches of snow out of this. 

CHANGES AND UPDATES

What follows are changes and updates to the forecast as of late Friday afternoon, courtesy of the National Weather Service office in South Burlington.  

My guess right now is the heaviest snow will fall south and east of a Burlington to Newport line, but those of us in the northwest corner of Vermont won't entirely miss out, not even close. Up there near and north of St. Albans, there might only be 7 to 13 inches of snow. 

Remember, that could change one way or another. Don't count on anything with this storm,  

The biggest forecast change is in southern Vermont. 

We won't see as much rain mix south of Route 4 as we  thought this morning. The overall forecast has gotten a smidge cooler, enough to keep most of the storm snow in most of southern Vermont. Rutland and Windsor counties now look like they'll see up to a foot of snow. Maybe more in the high elevations.  

Even down in Bennington and Windham counties, a winter weather advisory has been upgraded to a winter storm warning.  That means the entire state of Vermont is now under that warning. 

Low elevations in far southern Vermont should see some rain, sleet or freezing rain mix in, especially during the day Saturday. The midday rain will be probably be bookended by heavy snow early and late Saturday in places like Bennington and maybe Brattleboro. 

IMPACTS

As for power outages, draw a horizontal line through the exact middle of Vermont. Very roughly, those south of that line should experience some very heavy, quite wet snow, especially during the day Saturday. The areas south of this imaginary line should have the most power outages with this storm.

Those outages will almost no doubt extend south to the Massachusetts border and beyond. 

A familiar sight before a Vermont winter storm. 
Increasing high cloudiness over St. Albans,
Vermont this afternoon.

North of that line, the snow will be somewhat less wet and heavy, but will still won't exactly be light and fluffy. That means some scattered power outages are likely all the way to the Canadian border and beyond. 

If the forecast is accurate there won't be much difference in accumulation between central and southern Vermont. 

But the central and southern Vermont snow will be much more dense, with quite a bit more of a water content than further north.   In reality, the southern half of Vermont will have more snow than the north, but it will be more compact.

Melt the snow down, and you'll get about an inch of rain north and probably closer to two inches south. That's pretty substantial for a late March winter storm. Not record breaking, but impressive. 

As for getting around, it still looks like this storm will waste your entire Saturday.  Things get under way before dawn and this will last into the evening.  The roads will be lousy all day.  At times, it'll be hard for road crews to keep up with the pace of plowing. 

In the worst hit areas with the wettest, deepest snow, we could see trouble once again with fallen trees and branches blocking secondary roads. 

AFTERWARDS

After the snow ends Saturday night, we're still expecting a nice, sunny, but somewhat chilly day Sunday for storm cleanup.  It'll be heart attack snow, so be careful. The road crews should clean up the roads nicely, so the trip to the ski areas should be fine. 

It's still looking warmer all of next week, but so far I'm still not seeing heavy rains that would combine with melting snow to produce flooding. Just a prolonged mud season, is all. 

Biggest Snowstorm Of Year Looms For Parts Of Vermont, Power Outage, Travel Threat

Now that it's spring, it's time for a major, disruptive winter storm.

This morning's National Weather Service snow forecast map.
Virtually all of Vermont north of Route 4 is now 
expecting at least a foot of snow out of this. 
Saturday is going to be a real mess. 

 Oh joy!   

As expected, the winter storm watch has been upgraded to a winter storm warning for everybody in Vermont except Bennington and Windham counties in far southern parts of the state

THE HEADLINES:

---  This might be the biggest snowstorm of the year, with more than a foot likely for the vast majority of towns from about Route 4 north to the Canadian border.

----- Road conditions will be awful Saturday and travel is not recommended at all.  

---- We could see a large number of power outages again, especially as the snow becomes wetter and heavier by late morning and afternoon. 

------ Snow will probably mix with or change to rain, sleet and maybe some freezing rain Saturday from roughly Route 4 southward.

----- The forecast has a very high bust potential one way or another.  Expect surprises, and results may vary. The mix with rain in southern Vermont is a big wildcard. 

THE DETAILS

Forecasted snow amounts have further increased since the predictions from last night and yesterday morning. Most places in central and northern Vermont should expect at least a foot of snow. A few favored locations, especially in the mountains could close in on two feet of snow. 

Everything is coming together for a big storm, as plenty of moisture will flood in off the Atlantic Ocean to sock New England with TONS of precipitation. 

Southern New England is looking at a flood threat. Northern New England is "lucky" enough to stay cold enough for mostly or all snow. 

The Effects

This will all start as snow after midnight tonight statewide. It won't take long before it starts coming down really hard, like an inch or even locally two inches per hour. That's a pace at which it's hard for plow crews to keep up with it. 

Expect crappy road conditions all day Saturday.  They're even saying travel would be virtually impossible at some times and some areas. Today ought to be your traditional milk and bread panic day, or booze buying day if you're into that. You'll want to hunker down and stay home tomorrow. 

Oh, and make sure you stock up today on LED candles and flashlights and stuff too, if you don't already have them.  Power outages are inevitable. We just don't yet know how extensive they'll be. 

The snow will start out fairly powdery before dawn, but then turn wetter and heavier as the day wears on. This will be a statewide issue by afternoon.  Many of us will start to hear branches break, and power flicker and/or go off. 

Just how wet and heavy the snow becomes will determine how bad the power outages get. Be prepared, just in case. 

This will also be "heart attack" snow, hard to shovel away.  Do it slowly during and after the storm, or better yet, hire your local high school student athlete to clear the snow for you.  This is the type of stuff that will clog snow blowers. 

I'm being Captain Obvious here, but it needs to be said: Shut off the snow blower when it clogs, wait for all the parts to stop moving, then use a tool or broomstick to unclog. Keep your hands to yourself and don't fondle the snow blower, please. That is if you want to keep your hands attached to your arms for future use. 

Anyway, this will be a day long affair, with the heavy snow lasting probably into the evening north of Route 4.  It probably won't be a matter of waiting for conditions to improve. In most places, they probably won't.

This storm will hit just as hard in northern New Hampshire and much of Maine, and parts of southern Quebec, too, so it won't be easy to escape this.  

South of Route 4, the National Weather Service is still forecasting a mix with or more likely a change to rain. There could also be pockets of sleet and freezing rain to make things even more fun.  This will all hold accumulations there down to six inches or less.

And you'll have an awful slush fest on your hands. Which will probably harden like cement when temperatures fall Saturday night. 

Bust Potential

As always with this storms, we're going to have surprises.  The National Weather Service is confident there will be a lot of snow, but the definition of "a lot" is iffy here. There's a more than 90 percent chance of at least six inches of snow north of Route 4, so the confidence is high there. 

The chances for at least a foot of snow go down to between 50 and 65 percent north of Middlebury and Thetford. 

The big questions are whether the rain will poke further north than forecast. That would cut down accumulations in central Vermont. 

 Or, less likely, the storm might not phase up as expected, so the moisture feed could be disrupted and we'll get less. 

The National Weather Service forecast map you see on this post isn't gospel.  It's a general idea of what is expected as of Friday morning. Expect adjustments to the forecast today and tonight. And when the storm is over, chances are you'll have somewhat less or somewhat more snow than what's depicted. 

The Big Thaw

This being spring, not all the snow will stick around forever. Sunday will be a big powder day on the ski slopes, though the sun might soften the snow and make it a little slushy in places where the sun really hits. The high sun angle of late March can really heat things up, even if the air stays cold. 

It will be a bright, sunny day to start clearing snow. That high sun angle will cause a LOT of reflectivity. It will be blinding out there, so definitely bring the sunglasses.

It'll only get into the 30s in most low elevations Sunday, so there won't be huge melting. It'll just start in sunny corners. 

The deep snow cover, mostly clear skies and light winds will make temperatures crash Sunday night, with readings easily dropping to near 10 or even under that in many places.

The rest of the week looks seasonably warm, with daytime temperatures getting well into the 40s. The thaw will start, at least in the valleys. 

With all the snow the mountains have gotten in the past week, and the snow we're going to see tomorrow, the flood potential goes up.  If it gets really warm and rains heavily in the next week or two, we're in for a bit of trouble.

At this point it seems that chances favor a gradual melt with not a huge amount of rain, so that's good news.  Rain showers are in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday and possibly Friday.  There's a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. For the time being, I'm unimpressed by the expected rainfall totals, which is a good thing if you don't want high water.

But, we'll just get through this big snowstorm and worry about that later.

Saturday Vermont Snowstorm Pretty Much Definite, Amounts Still Open To Question

The National Weather Service in South Burlington has
increased expected snow amounts from this Saturday's
storm in central and northern Vermont. Looks like
rain will cut down accumulations from about
Route 4 south. 

 You know we're getting a storm when I do morning and evening updates on the event.

It's looking pretty definite now that most of Vermont is in for a pretty big snowstorm Saturday that will screw up travel and maybe power lines.  

Let's get into the updates we saw this afternoon:

FORECAST AMOUNTS

In central and northern Vermont, expected snow amounts have been pushed upward a fair amount compared to this morning's forecast.

The exception to that is south of Route 4, which I'll get into in a bit.

First, forecasters are pretty confident now there will be at least six inches of snow north of Route 4. Though not quite confident enough yet to upgrade the winter storm watch to a warning. little compared to forecasts from this morning. 

For instance, this mornings forecast had 5.1 inches falling in Burlington. The latest forecast issued this afternoon has 10 inches in Burlington. Montpelier went from 6.3 to 9.3 inches. St. Albans went from 6.5 to 10.6 inches. 

We have to wait and see whether that upward trend continues, or something short circuits that idea.

The worst case scenario - with a 10 percent chance of it happening - would be a whopping 15 to 24 inches of snow north of Route 4.  That would happen if the moisture flow off the Atlantic is stronger than expected and it stays cold enough for snow. Don't count on it, but it is still plausible. 

A best case scenario - if you don't like spring snow - is warm air would push to the Canadian border for a time, cutting snow totals to six inches or less. That scenario is also unlikely, but could surprise us. 

 Latest forecasts do have the slightly warmer air making it as far north as around Route 4.  If the forecast holds, an initial burst of snow would change to rain or even freezing rain in spots down that way.  Which means snow accumulations would be five inches or less if this comes true. 

A blizzardy look in St. Albans, Vermont this morning
before the air dried out and partial, but cold
sunshine appeared in the afternoon. 

So far at least, it doesn't look like there will be enough freezing rain to sag the trees and break power lines, except perhaps in the mountains of eastern Rutland County and western Windsor. 

Of course the other problem is wet snow.  

It's late in the snow season, and the bulk of the snow will happen during the day Saturday, when the stronger March sun can sort of bleed through the clouds a bit. 

That would turn what might be a relatively powdery snow that comes down before dawn to slush falling from the sky during the day. 

It's a little too soon to tell if the wet snow would be another electricity killer, so we'll have to watch out.

GETTING THERE

It was damn cold today compared to what we got used to this month. You noticed, that, huh?  Some Northeast Kingdom towns were still in the upper teens at mid-afternoon. Those cold hollows should make it close to zero tonight, while the rest of us bottom out by dawn Friday somewhere between 5 and 15 above, warmest in the Champlain Valley. 

Those aren't record lows, but pretty chilly for this time of year nonetheless. 

Sunshine will fade behind increasing high clouds tomorrow, and it'll stay cold. Not as bad as today, but a high of 30 or so isn't great for late March. 

The snow should arrive shortly after midnight early Saturday west and during the pre-dawn hours east. It'll continue all day Saturday, except for that maybe rain or freezing rain crap in the south. 

MOVING ON

The snow should end Saturday night. After the storm, it will remain chilly Sunday, with highs barely making it into the 30s.  The high angle sun should start to melt the snow off pavement, and out of protected corners and such.  

As temperatures rise into the low 40s Monday, the pace of melting will start to ramp up. And it will really get going if daily highs from Tuesday onward next week reach the 40s, maybe near 50 in warmer valleys, if forecasts issued today hold true. 

This cold/snowy episode should prevent an early end to the maple sugaring season. I was worried about that as we had a warm month until now.  We're setting up for an excellent sap run next week. We're also setting up for an extension of our long, long and very rough mud season.  

We'll have to watch out for some spring flooding if we get any big rain storms in the coming weeks. Especially after this new storm there will be plenty of snow in the mountains that will eventually have to melt. 

The water equivalent of the upcoming storm is one to two inches, which is quite a bit. That's on top of the surprising amounts of snow the mountains have gotten since Sunday.

The good news is next week isn't looking super warm, so the melt won't be overly fast. Even better, unless we see some sort of surprise, rainfall next week looks pretty unimpressive. 

Also, the deep snow is pretty much confined to the mountains, at least for now. We'll have to wait and see what happens Saturday.   

Considering all that, I'm not too worried about another big flood at the moment. We don't exactly need another one.  

 

Near Record Early Cherry Blossom Bloom In Washington DC, But 150 Of The Trees To Be Chopped Down Soon

Stumpy, a beloved cherry tree along the Tidal Basin
in Washington DC is to be chopped down along with
150 other trees because of rising tides. Note the water
surrounding Stumpy in the photo. The tree was
damaged by the high water, giving Stumpy a 
Charlie Brown Christmas tree vibe. That's
why people love Stumpy so much and will miss it. 

 The famous cherry trees in Washington DC reached peak bloom on Sunday, one of the earliest such blooms on record.   

People also better enjoy this year's bloom, as about 150 of the trees are about to be cut down.  (Don't worry, there will be plenty of cherry trees left behind to bloom in future years).

THE BLOOM

First, the early bloom. As the Washington Post notes, people have been keeping track of bloom times among the cherry trees since 1921. This year's was tied with 2000 as the second earliest flowering on record. March 15,1990 takes the cake as the earliest bloom. 

The blossoming came earlier than forecasted and before the start of the Capitol's annual National Cherry Blossom Festival, which started Wednesday and ends April 14.

Climate change (of course!) seems to be playing a role in the earlier blooms as well: Per Washington Post: 

"As March temperatures have climbed over the past century, the average peak bloom date has advanced about six days, from April 4 to March 30. Including this year, each of the past five has seen a peak before March 298. Last year it was on March 23 - more than a week early."

Peak bloom has hit before April 4 in 16 of the past 20 years. Looking at it another way, in the 57 years ending in 1978, the trees bloomed on or after April 12 on thirteen occasions. Since 1978, blooms that late never happened again. 

CUTTING SOME DOWN

Washington DC has about 3,800 cherry trees in and around the Tidal Basin and Washington Monument. After the blooms fade this spring, there's going to be about 150 fewer of them.

They are victims of sinking ground and climate change, which is causing the tidal basin to flood the area more and more frequently, especially near the Jefferson Memorial. 

Back in the late 19th and early 20th century, a seawall was construction in the area to keep tides at bay. But the sea wall has sunk as much as five feet. That's mostly because the area was built on mud dredged from the Potomac River, and that mud has settled.

 Meanwhile, water levels have risen by about a foot due to climate change. 

NPR describes the scene now:

"Every day, twice a day, at high tide, portions of the walkway around the Tidal Basin flood with several inches of water. Some of the roughly 2,500 cherry trees around the basin have water lapping at exposed roots; others are completely inundated. Numerous park benches are partially submerged."

The National Park Service this spring will embark on a $113 million project to raise portions of the walkway.  A new seawall will be built, supposedly high enough to withstand about a century of future sea level rise.  They'll be able to build the seawall higher, if it becomes necessary.

To complete this project to keep the Tidal Basin at bay, they'll have to cut down about 150 trees. Once they're done, the National Park Service promises to plant 274 new cherry trees.

STUMPY

One of the victims of this project is the beloved Stumpy.  

Stumpy is the Charlie Brown Christmas Tree of the Tidal Basin. Repeated flooding from Tidal Basin salt water has turned into Stumpy into a gnarled, lopsided mess.  Still, Stumpy persists, putting out fresh blooms each year. 

People love Stumpy's pluck in the face of such adversity, and they are celebrating it and truly mourning its impending demise. 

The Credit Union Cherry Blossom 10-mile and 5K will commemorate Stumpy with its image on race t-shirts and race metals. Stumpy also now has a full-sized mascot.

The Washington Post adds this:

"Clippings from Stumpy will be sent to the National Arboretum to create genetic matches. The hope is to plant little Stumpy clones on the National Mall or nearby parks. The rest of Stumpy and the other trees will be ground into mulch and spread around the remaining cherry tree bases to protect their roots and provide nutrients to the soil."

Sort of the circle of life, I guess. 

I understand the need to remove Stumpy, but I'm going to miss that brave little tree.  

 

Weird, Stormy, Snowy Vermont Wednesday Yields To Frigid Thursday, Then Winter Storm

Heavy snow falling in downtown St. Albans, Vermont
late Thursday afternoon. 

Thursday was quite the exciting weather day in Vermont with those snow squalls. Now, today, we're suddenly taken back to midwinter. By Friday night and Saturday we could well have a major snowstorm. Five days from now we hit full time spring weather again. 

March keeps us Vermonters on our toes, doesn't it! 

We'll break it all down piece by piece below, starting with some info on what happened Thursday. 

SQUALLY THURSDAY

That snow really came down hard for awhile, didn't it. Pretty much all of us in Vermont shared in the excitement Wednesday, some more than others. 

The heaviest snow came along and just ahead of a  cold front, so it was a fairly wet snow. That was good, as there wasn't much blowing snow. That prevented visibility from getting even worse on the highways.

Plenty of Vermont towns saw  two to six inches, much of it coming in three hours or less. Marshfield reported 3.5 inches in two hours. Hinesburg had 2.9 inches in three hours, according to reports collected by the National Weather Service in South Burlington. 

The highest snow total I've seen so far is 8.3 inches at an 1,100 foot elevation in Underhill. 

There was indeed thunder snow here and there. A noted a strike on a lightning detector map somewhere near Milton Wednesday aftenoon. 

A line of snow thunderstorms moved across far southern Vermont, too. Bennington reported a thunderstorm with snow at around 6 p.m.  Near high elevations Readsboro, Mitch, or @VermontsterWx on X captured on film what pretty much amounted to a severe or nearly severe thunderstorm.

Mitch's video shows lightning, thunder, heavy snow and definitely strong winds. 

High elevation have really seen the snow pile up this week. Jay Peak reports 21 inches of new snow since Sunday. 

The snow depth atop Mount Mansfield went from 61 inches a week ago, to 81 inches as of 5 p.m. Thursday. It kept snowing on Mount Mansfield after 5 p.m. so there's even more now. And perhaps a LOT more in the forecast, as you'll see further down intros post

Thursday truly was a weather geek's party day, that's for sure. 

COLD WEATHER

Was looking rather blizzardy and frigid Thursday 
morning in St. Albans, Vermont. 

Temperatures plunged last night and the winds picked up even more.   Temperature continued to fall this morning even after sunrise That's a testimony to the strength of this blast of cold air. 

By 8 a.m. pretty much all of us were in the teens to around 20.  Wind chills were in the single digits. 

There were still quite a few snow showers around northern Vermont, but those will wane during the day. 

The cold will hang tough, as we stay in the 20s to around 30 all day with those gusty northwest winds. 

Tonight will be wintry for sure. Lows will be in the single numbers and teens. Pretty close to average for mid-January. 

Friday will also be much colder than normal for this time of year. But at least the winds will be lighter, and some of us will get up near the freezing point in the afternoon

WINTER STORM WATCH

I've prattled on a lot here already, since there's so much to talk about. But there's an elephant in the room that must be discussed. Or at least the elephant will be here shortly.

Said pachyderm is the now-likely snowstorm in Vermont, due Friday night and Saturday.  The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch for all but the southernmost two counties in Vermont. Though I suspect that the National Weather Service in Albany, NY, which covers Bennington and Windham Counties, might issue one later. 

The watch goes from Friday evening through Saturday night.  

National Weather Service in South Burlington with
an early snow forecast for Saturday's expected storm.
Predictions will change one way or another 
between now and then. 

For now, the National Weather Service is forecasting five to eight inches of snow for most of us between Friday evening and late Saturday night. 

However, there might well be some big adjustments in the snow totals either up or down.  You can see the uncertainty in the forecasts. 

For instance, the National Weather Service in South Burlington is - for now - forecasting 6.3 inches of snow in Montpelier. But there's a 10 percent chance it could be as little as three inches and a 10 percent chance it could be as much as 18 inches. 

The computer models still haven't figured out how much moisture will feed into Vermont, which will have a huge impact on how much snow we get. 

As of Thursday morning the scariest computer model is the European, which brings about 1.2 to 2.4 inches of precipitation to Vermont. That would translate to more than a foot of wet snow. The American model is less dire, and more in line with the five to eight inch scenario.

This could also mix with or change to a cold rain in spots, especially south. 

This storm forecast will need tons of updates in the next day or so. Stay tuned! 

This belated winter siege should end next week as temperatures warm up pretty drastically after Monday. 

 

Horribly Timed Snow Squalls Slamming Vermont Late Today

Heavy snow in downtown St. Albans, Vermont
this afternoon.

 An intense line of snow squalls lumbered through the Champlain Valley of Vermont late this afternoon, snarling traffic and causing crashes throughout the region.  

It's not entirely over for Vermont as of 5:45 p.m. The squalls have been showing a slow forward motion, and were entering central parts of the state. And southwestern Vermont as well. Expect trouble on the roads to spread east for the rest of the evening. 

Pretty much all roads were backed up in Chittenden County at rush hour.  A large wrecker trying to retrieve an excavator that went into a ditch along Interstate 89 between Burlington and Winooski before the start of the squalls is complicating things further. 

The late afternoon squalls intensified and expanded as they moved out of New York state into Vermont. They ran into a temperature contrast. It was in the 30s most of the day in northern New York, but it reached the 40s in Vermont. 

The intersection of Main and Lake streets in St. Albans,
Vermont late this afternoon. 

This helped destabilize the air, allowing the squalls and heavy snow showers to blossom.  There was even at least one lightning strike north of Burlington during all this. 

On radar and especially visible satellite, the snow squalls really looked like a line of severe summer thunderstorms. 

The evening squalls weren't even the only ones. Another line of snow squall swept across northern and central Vermont mid-morning. Those caused their own issues, including crashes and slide offs along Interstate 89 in and near Williston. That mucked up traffic too. 

Even as the snow squalls diminish in western Vermont, colder air is moving in. Roads that were just wet will probably freeze as temperatures plunge. 

Overnight, snow showers will become lighter and more scattered, but snow will continue to pile up in the high elevations

From Facebook: Traffic crashes and tie ups along Interstate
89 between Williston and Richmond after the first
batch of snow squalls blew through this morning. 

Total snow accumulation should be one to three inches in most valley locations with this. Up to six inches is likely in the mountains. 

Snow totals from the valleys might seem inflated, but they really aren't. The Burlington area had about an inch of snow from the morning squalls.

 That melted, then another couple inches arrived late this afternoon, so that counts as something like three inches. (Final totals aren't in yet).

It will be quite cold for this time of year Thursday, with highs for many of us in the 20s. We're still watching a potential winter storm for Friday night and Saturday. I'll have more on that in tomorrow morning's post.   

As for this evening, stay in if you can. If you must drive, slow down, and expect delays. Some of those delays might be pretty long. Grab a tankful of gas before you get too far in case you're stuck for a couple hours out there. 

Slick spots on the roads will last into Thursday morning, too, so be aware of that. 

Vermont Snow Squalls Even Thunder Possible Later Today; Storm Chances For Saturday Tick Up

A towering cloud producing a heavy snow squall as
seen looking west from St. Albans, Vermont on 
February 19, 2022. Similar scenes are definitely
possible today, with the risk of locally blinding
squalls and possibly even thunder snow. 

It could be an interesting afternoon and early evening in parts of Vermont today as we gear up for the possibility of a few snow squalls and even possibly thunder snow. 

Meanwhile, the chances of seeing at least a few inches of wet snow Friday night and Saturday have begun to increase, it seems. More on that in a bit. First, today.

BURSTS OF SNOW

I told you the other day how as we get toward spring, we start seeing more convective showers - those clouds that billow higher into the sky and produce warm season thunderstorms. We had some of those Sunday and to a lesser extent Tuesday afternoon.

Today, a strong disturbance is going to goose the atmosphere's ability to produce those brief heavy storms. 

The set up is much like those cold fronts we see in the summer that bump up against warm, humid air. Those are the ones that give us occasional outbreaks of strong to severe, but scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. 

Much like those summer events, showers are coming through this morning in advance of the afternoon excitement. 

 Of course, it's much colder than it is in the summer, so it's mostly snow showers we're seeing. They won't amount to all that much, though in some favored places, they could deposit an inch or so of snow. Then - again - much like on those summer storm days -   the sun will at least partly break out during the midday to help destabilize the atmosphere. 

Then a cold front will approach, probably firing up a broken line of snow showers and squalls toward mid to late afternoon.

It'll be above freezing by then across most of Vermont. Many valleys will be near 40 degrees. Even so, these will be mostly snow, not rain. There's plenty of cold air aloft, and the bursts of snow will draw cold, gusty winds from up high down to where we are, so it will be snow.

These will also be hit and miss, as is usual with these kinds of things. Some places will see blinding snow squalls with fairly strong gusty winds and maybe even a rumble of thunder. Other places will see just the usual snow showers, no biggie. 

The heavier squalls and possible thunder could happen anywhere in Vermont. The National Weather Service in South Burlington gives the zone between Route 2 and Route 4 a slight edge at having the vest chances all this happening. 

Be prepared this afternoon and evening for those snow squalls. They can cut visibility on the highways from great to zero in seconds flat. That's how you get those highway pileups. The squalls take motorists by surprise.

Also, roads will go from dry to wet to icy and snow covered in a flash, too. 

THEN COLD, THEN SNOWSTORM?

Temperatures are still forecast to crash to far below freezing tonight, with snow showers continuing, especially up in the mountains. Total accumulations will be at most two inches in the valleys, with many places seeing an inch or less.

The entire Green Mountain chain, and much of the Northeast Kingdom, should expect two to as much as six inches out of this little spell. Some northern summits, think Jay Peak, could get more than six inches. 

Temperatures should stay below freezing for most of us from this evening, then all day tomorrow and on into Friday. 

Remember how I told you yesterday the computer models were all squabbling over what would happen with a potential storm Saturday?  It looks like they're starting to negotiate a peace agreement, but they're not quite there yet. 

There is a growing consensus there will be some type of storm in the Northeast on Saturday. Its potential path seems favorable to snow in Vermont. 

We still don't know how much, but a few to several inches is definitely possible. It's a late season thing, so it'll probably be wet and heavy stuff. If there's a lot of it, we could be dealing with power outages again. 

If there is a lot of snow, early guesses place the most snow in central and southeastern Vermont, but that's still something of a question mark. Stay tuned!

Our week of winter will then last into Sunday, then it looks like we start returning to spring around next Monday or Tuesday.