Christmas Greetings From Matt's Weather Rapport

As she has for decades, the unbeatable Darlene Love
is helping me wish you a wonder, super Merry
Christmas. Hope you're with the people you love! 

This post won't have any weather or climate news in it.  It's my way of saying Merry Christmas.  

One of my Christmas traditions is to post Darlene Love's annual performance of my favorite  holiday song, "Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)."  

Every Christmas season since way back in 1986 when she first did this on the Late Show With David Letterman, I've sought  this Darlene Love magic out, as it's always somewhere on TV.  . 

After Letterman closed up shop, Love did her magic for a few years on "The View."  Something about when Love was on "The View" wasn't quite as spectacular, but still well worth it. 

This year, Jimmy Fallon got her on the Tonight Show, and the whole performance was made even more spectacular with the help of Little Steven & The Disciples of Soul, along with Paul Shaffer. 

Darlene Love, 83, is back in all her glory and voice. It's nice to have a great constant at Christmas like that beautiful singer. She hasn't faded a bit. 

I hope your baby or whoever is important in your life has come home to be with you.  I hope you have a glorious Christmas, full of fun and joy and love and gratitude. And free of crappy weather, of course!

Here's the video. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that:

Final Word On Vermont Snow, Now For A Quiet Christmas Aside From Bit Of Unpleasant Evening Freezing Drizzle

Map from National Weather Service in South Burlington
depicts how much snow fell in last nights small storm
Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see,

 The snow ended earlier today as expected, leaving us with a dull Christmas Eve forecast and a little fog. 

Don't worry about the fog, at least in terms of what Santa's doing. Rudolph the Red Nose Reindeer managed to find his way through fog and mist way worse than this .

However, a bit of freezing drizzle is coming out of that fog across parts of northern and central Vermont this evening, so that could create some unexpected slick spots on the roads this evening,

There's a few flurries mixed in, too.

Do be careful out there! 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington has given us its full list of snowfall reports.  Aside from under-performing in Chittenden County, the forecast proved pretty accurate.

The big winner with this storm was Potsdam, in northwestern New York, with a foot of snow. Nearby Hannawa had 10 inches. 

In Vermont, the snow sweepstakes winner was a tie between Lincoln and Newport Center, with eight inches. Charlotte came in the losing end, with just an inch of fresh powder. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington only managed 1.5 inches of new snow.

For comparison's sake, this is the forecast from 
a few hours before the snow actually started.
Pretty close to reality, actually

One aspect of the forecast for Christmas Day through Friday is whether we'll see any sun. Strong high pressure nearby favors sun. But that strong temperature inversion we've been talking about might trap in a layer of low clouds. 

I'm still thinking that many areas might see a low overcast through the week, but that's not guaranteed. If it does clear out at night, temperatures Christmas night and the next night could get near zero.

Mountaintops still look like they'll poke up above any low overcast. Due to the inversion, mountain tops might well be warmer than the valleys during the next few days. 

We're still watching for the risk of some air pollution trapped beneath the inversion, too. We'll update you if there's any air quality alerts.

Eventually, that stalled, strong high pressure will move off to the east, opening us for storminess toward Sunday. It's still early to say what will happen with that, but odds at the moment favor rain to dampen the enthusiasm of winter sports fans. 

But it's still just the beginning of winter. Even if some rain sets back our snow fun, there's plenty of opportunity for the white fluff to come back in January, February and March. And, ugh. Maybe April 

Snow To End Later This Morning; Clouds, Chill To Linger

Managed to shovel part of my driveway in St. Albans,
Vermont before work this morning.  Will finish
after short work day this afternoon. Easy job, as
it's only two or three inches and it's not wet or heavy.

As of 8 a.m., this Christmas Eve morning, we're almost done with our latest bout of snow, but road conditions remain tricky, as you can imagine with snow still falling.  

Radar images at 8 a.m. showed the back edge of the snow just crossing the Canadian border into northwest Vermont, so most places will be done with this by midmorning. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington will probably drop the winter weather advisories and winter storm warning, also by midmorning. 

Best early guess is most of the forecasted amounts of snow will come to fruition, except maybe in the Champlain Valley  

Both upper level winds from the southwest and strong surface winds from the south up the Champlain Valley cut back on snow accumulations. 

The southwest winds a few thousand feet up meant the Adirondacks of New York blocked some of the moisture from getting into the valley. 

Winds on the ground gusted to around 40 mph at times, stronger than forecast. That created a lot of blowing snow, but messing up whatever snow was falling. The blasting gusts smashed snowflakes apart, causing smaller fragments to all, which don't accumulate as readily as regular, intact snowflakes.

The winds were diminishing as we approached sunrise, so most of the snow in the Champlain Valley will have fallen at the end of the storm.  Still, I imagine places like Burlington and Middlebury might end up with only one to three inches of new snow.

Eh, those places got some Lake Champlain-effect snow Saturday, so they're OK. 

 It was hard to measure how much snow I got at my place in St. Albans, Vermont because the snow blew around quite a bit overnight. Good measuring spots ranged rom 2.5 to 3.2 inches of new snow around my yard.

Northern New York appears to be the big winner of this system, with a couple of 7 inch reports coming in from there. So far reports from Vermont are sparse. Preliminary reports include 6.7 inches in Albany, Vermont, 6.5 inches in Morrisville 5.3 inches in Cabot and 4.1 in Topsham.  

OUTLOOK

As expected, road conditions were iffy for what amounted to this morning's commute. Traffic cams showed snow or slush covered highways statewide.  

Screen grab of traffic cam on Interstate 89 near Exit 16 in
Colchester shows not great conditions. If you have
holiday travel today, probably best to postpone
the start until late morning or afternoon. 

This should improve pretty fast later this morning and afternoon.  Temperatures should either stay in or get into the 20s by this afternoon, so not terrible.

Although strong high pressure is moving in, we might not see a huge amount of sun during the day, or starlight at night, especially in the valleys. 

That inversion we've been talking about will set up.  An inversion is when it's warmer a few thousand feet overhead than it is down in the valleys, which is the opposite of how the atmosphere is usually set up. 

An inversion traps a layer of moisture a couple thousand feet up, which means you often see a low, dull overcast in the valleys with this type of thing. Especially this time of year, when the sun's low angle isn't powerful enough to mix the atmosphere and clear out the clouds. 

Pollution can get trapped beneath the inversion layer, too, so we'll have to watch and see what air quality does Christmas through Friday. 

If you venture up to the ski resorts, you might be treated to an undercast, rather than an overcast. That cloud layer could end up below you, so if you're up on the mountain, you might be in bright sunshine while a layer of clouds spread out below you. 

After today, the next chance of any kind of storminess looks like it might come along about Sunday. By then it will be warmer, so at this point, it looks like that stuff might end up being rain, with possible areas of freezing rain.

Ah, yes, the joys of a Vermont winter!

Monday Evening Snow Update: Winter WEather Advisories Expanded

 Our little pre-Christmas Vermont snowfall prediction keeps getting less and less little. 

Snowfall predictions for tonight's storm have ticked upwards
since this morning. Sizeable chunks of northern Vermont
and New York now expect at least six inches of new
snow (yellow and orange shading) with all but 
southeastern Vermont expecting at least 3 inches.

The winter weather advisory that was in effect for Lamoille, eastern Franklin and eastern Chittenden counties has been upgraded to a winter storm warning. Expected snow totals in the warning area have been bumped up a little to a predicted total of six to eight inches, with locally higher amounts.

In the winter storm area, snow overnight could come down at a rate of an inch an hour at times, so it looks like a pretty good blast of snow. 

The remaining winter weather advisories that had been in effect in Vermont from along and north of Route 2 and Route 302 are still on. But those advisories have been expanded southward. 

Addison, Orange and Bennington counties are now in the winter weather advisory, as is the Green Mountain spine in central Vermont.

It's not just the winter storm warning zone where predicted totals are up. It's really everybody in and around Vermont.  All areas of the Green Mountain State should receive - give or take - roughly an inch to an inch and a half more snow than we saw in the forecasts first thing this morning.

It looks like it'll get kind of windy overnight in the Champlain Valley, so things could get particularly tough overnight there, with blowing and drifting snow cutting visibility even more. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says how much snow actually accumulates will depend somewhat on wind in the atmosphere. If the winds blow the falling snowflakes to smithereens, then accumulation won't be quite as deep, but a little denser than it otherwise would be. If the flakes stay nice and whole, accumulations might be slightly higher, but it would be a fluffier snow cover. 

Given the snow on the ground and the stuff we're about to get, it's safe to say all of Vermont now has a 100 percent chance of a white Christmas

The timing of this has been pushed up a little, too.  You probably ought to try to get all your driving around and errands done by around 6 p.m. this evening, as the snow should get into New York and western Vermont  by 8 p.m. or earlier.  Eastern  Vermont will probably wait until after 8 p.m.. Southern Vermont, which will get less snow than the north, is probably safe from accumulations until after 10 p.m. 

The heaviest snow looks like it will hit between roughly midnight tonight and 6 a.m. Tuesday  The roads should be not great early in the day. 

It still looks like the snow will be done by midmorning tomorrow.  So if you're driving on Christmas Eve, it's probably best to wait until noon to take off. By then, most of the roads should be in good shape.

It'll stay pretty chilly for the next few days, but not as bad as it was this morning. Christmas through Friday, expect highs in the 20s and lows in the 5 to 12 above range, with the cold hollows being colder, and the upper elevations being warmer above an expected temperature inversion.

Vermont Record Above Zero Streak Snaps; Snow Forecast Increases, And Air Pollution Later In Week?

Burlington, Vermont got below zero overnight, ending
a record 663 days of continuously above zero readings.

The record streak of continuously above zero temperatures in Burlington, Vermont finally ended Sunday night. 

Before midnight, it got below zero, ending a 663-day streak that started on February 26 2023.  The previous record longest streak was 654 days between February 22, 2000 and December 9, 2002.

It was obviously cold everywhere around the region.  The usual icebox, Saranac Lake, New York, got down to at least 22 below early today. Lake Eden, Vermont was at 17 below.  Morrisville and Montpelier shared a 10 below reading. 

High temperatures Sunday never got above the single numbers in many areas, setting the stage for the morning's subzero cold.

It was a worrisome night for homeless people in the area, and there are unfortunately many in Vermont. There was no room left at shelters and hotels around the state, according to advocates for the homeless, so they resorted to handing out sleeping bags and other winter gear and hoped for the best. 

A warming center was set up in one Burlington building last night, and volunteers drove around to make unhoused people aware.  I know some people look with distain on the homeless, as some of them are substance abusers and a few of them commit crimes. But as exasperating as shoplifting can get, those who do that sort of thing don't deserve the death penalty by freezing.

If you don't like such frigid weather, you're in luck. This will be the last time it gets below zero at least until we get past New Year's Day.  Highs today will get into the 20s, a decided improvement over Sunday afternoon But wintry weather is going to stay with us for awhile yet.

SNOW INCOMING

Another round of snow is incoming for Vermont and surrounding areas, mostly tonight and early tomorrow.  

Next up, a moderate-sized snowfall mostly tonight, and
focusing on northern Vermont, along with
northern and central New York and northern 
New Hampshire. In Vermont, 4 to 6 inches is likely
along and north of Route 2, with slightly 
lesser amounts to the south. 

It's another Alberta Clipper, one of those usually weak systems that come in from the west or northwest and scoot through with little fanfare.

This one has some real oomph to it, though.  

A winter weather advisory has been issued for northern Vermont, generally along and north of Route 2.  Those winter weather advisories also extend across northern and central New York, northern New Hampshire, parts of Maine, and in most of Wisconsin and Michigan.

So holiday travel is getting screwed up in a several areas. 

Here in Vermont, broad the National Weather Service in South Burlington is telling us most places along and north of Route 2 should see four to six inches of new snow out of this system.  Some isolated areas in the northern mountains could see eight inches. 

Areas between Route 2 and Route 4 look to be in the three to five inch range, and places south of Route 4 are pegged for one to three inches. 

With the snow coming, you might want to think about your Christmas travel plans a bit.

Travel today should be fine. The snow should start between 6 and 8 this evening in northern New York, and reach western Vermont between 8 and 10 p.m. says the National Weather Service. So if you get to where you're going by then, you're golden.

The snow will probably end by midmorning tomorrow in most places. So if you're traveling anywhere on Christmas Eve, try to postpone the trip until late morning or afternoon. 

After that, we should have no snow, ice, schmutz or anything else clogging up Vermont roads from Tuesday afternoon through at least Friday, and probably beyond. But that doesn't end completely end the weirdness

INVERSION/POLLUTION

Starting on Christmas Day and lasting through probably until at least Friday, it is going to get a little odd in Vermont. And in some places, maybe a bit hard to breathe.

I should explain: 

A strong high pressure system is forecast to park itself basically overhead through at least Friday.  The atmosphere overall is expected to warm a great deal.  Except right down near the surface. This time of year, the sun angle is so low it can't heat us up much

If it wants to get warm, we need a south wind to carry the warm air into places we live.  But with light winds under this high pressure, the snow on the ground will just keep the air near the surface refrigerated.

 This creates what is known as a temperature inversion.  Usually, the air is warmest in the lowest elevations and gets progressively colder as you go up hill. 

In an inversion, it's cold in the valleys and warm in the mountains, up a few thousand feet. 

The result will be some warm, even thawing temperatures up at the ski areas, while valleys are stuck in the teens at night, 20s during the day.  There might even be a low overcast, so the valleys are dreary while the mountains are in bright sun.

Inversions happen occasionally in Vermont this time of year, but this one will be more intense and longer lasting than usual. That's a problem.

A problem, because the inversion acts like a lid, trapping pollutants in the valleys.  So all the cars, exhaust for furnaces, wood smoke, etc will get trapped in valleys, possibly causing enough pollution to create issues in people with lung conditions. 

This could happen in the upcoming week in any Vermont valley. But the topography around Rutland is particularly prone to setting up these pollution issues, so that's the region we'll want to watch carefully for pollution this week. 

We're hoping the inversion finally breaks toward the weekend.  

Weird Post-Christmas Winter Hot Spell To Embrace Most Of North America. But It Might Not Last Long

Forecast map via Tropical Tidbits showing most
of North America with temperatures above normal
roughly a week from now.  The map shows
how far temperatures would be above or
below normal for this time of year. They'd
be farthest above normal near Hudson Bay,
but since it's winter, those "warm" temperatures
would only be in the 20s and 30s.

 We're heading into the depths of winter in North America, but you wouldn't know it given the Christmas Week forecast for almost the whole continent.  

Normally, large sections of the vast land mass would be colder than average for the season while other big areas would be having mild spells. 

By mid to late week, the only areas that will be chiller than usual for the end of December are Alaska and a small adjacent piece of northwest Canada.  Western Mexico might also be on the cool side, but not by much. 

Virtually all of Canada, from the British Columbian coast to Labrador, and from the southern tip of Ontario all the way north to Nunavut in the Arctic will be warmer than average.

Same is true coast to coast in the Continental U.S., except for maybe a small spot in California's Central Valley.

Now, it's winter, so nobody will be exactly hot. A few record highs are possible during this weird spell, especially in areas of Canada roughly near Hudson Bay, and then down toward the Great Lakes. 

For instance, in northwestern Quebec, near the shores of Hudson Bay, normal highs this time of year and in the teens to near 20 below Fahrenheit.  By the end of the week, those places will be in the mid 20s to low 30s above zero Fahrenheit, which is impressively balmy for this time of year. 

I'll want to oversimplify this, but is a forecast
showing the overall air flow in North America
in the last days of December. Follow the green
lines, You seen they come off the Pacific'then curl
north into eastern Canada. That blocks any cold
air in far north from coning toward the U.S. Red
hatched lines in Canada depict an upper air 
pattern that strongly favors warmer 
than average temperatures.

But the impressive thing is how huge this area of above normal temperatures will be, especially for this time of year.

The reason for this is a massive flow of mild Pacific air flowing into North America from the west.  Additionally, there's a massive northward bulge in the jet stream beginning to form. It's centered in central and eastern Canada, and by the end of the week will be enormous. 

That warm Pacific Ocean air will be forced to move both eastward across the United States, and northward through central and eventually into northeastern Canada - way the hell up there. 

This arrangement is pushing the usual pools of frigid air far to the northwest, centering it north of Alaska. Plus, this cold pool looks like it's smaller in size and weaker than you'd usually see in the winter. 

Usually, this cold pool is much stronger, and often extends across much of the northern half of Canada, and often centers itself near or not far from Hudson Bay. When that happens, the usual, occasional bursts of Arctic air can easily flow into southern Canada and the eastern two thirds of the United States.

As long as this weird weather pattern holds in place, there will be no more cold air to be had in eastern North America for awhile, at least after a zone of frigid air over southern Quebec and the northeastern U.S. gets out of here within a few days.

Don't expect this balmy North American winter to last forever. In fact it probably won't last all that long.  

It appears one of the more likely scenarios is that the big northward bulge in the jet stream over Canada might split in two, with one northward bump to the east, and the other in western Canada. That would create a southward dip in the jet stream between the two. That southward dip would allow cold Arctic air to eventually spill into south-central Canada and at least parts of the United States. 

If I had to guess, this would start happening a few day into the New Year.  NOAA's three to four week outlook, issued Friday and covering the period January 4 to 17, pretty strongly predicts below normal temperatures for most of the eastern two thirds of the United States.  The cooling trend in New England might (or might not!) wait until a couple or few days after January 4.

 

New Snow Might Keep Us Refrigerated All Week, Even After Intense Weekend Cold Departs

Steam and warmth from Lake Champlain was still
creation clouds over the lake near Burlington this
morning, as this hazecam.net screen grab shows,
but the lake effect snows of yesterday are over. 

Yes, yes, I know, it's nasty cold out there in Vermont and surrounding areas. 

Jackson the Weather dog here in St. Albans really cut short his early morning observations when we went out before dawn today.

  He's not into this type of chill at all. Can't say I blame the little guy. 

Low temperatures this morning were pretty uniform statewide in Vermont this morning.  That tends to happen when there's a steady winds. 

 Burlington was the banana belt town as usual, dipping down to 5 degrees this morning.  Everyone else was pretty much between 5 below and 2 above, even in the valleys of far southern Vermont. 

Wind chills this morning were mostly in the teens below zero.  You'll really want to dress for the weather today, as most of us won't even make it to 10 above, and the north wind will continue to blow steadily. Don't be fooled by the sun when it comes out. The low angle light won't help with the chill at all. 

Yesterday's lake effect snows in the Champlain Valley might well contribute to the end of Burlington's longest continuous stretch of above zero temperatures. Today was the 663rd day in a row that was above zero, as measured at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

Usually, the Champlain Valley receives the least snow in any given winter storm. This time, they got the most, thanks to that lake effect snow Saturday. 

Six inches of snow covered Shelburne, Vermont. In a rare feat, The National Weather Service office in South Burlington was the snowfall winner, with a storm total of 6.3 inches.  

Because the snow cover around Burlington is deeper than what had been forecast, that improves the chances that the record long stretch of temperatures continuously above zero will end.

Deeper snow tends to encourage lower temperatures on clear, calm winter nights. Monday morning could well end the long, long streak of continuously above zero temperatures. 

But it's not a slam dunk.  If any clouds move in off Lake Champlain, or the wind stirs a bit at just the right time, it'll stay above zero in Burlington. The current forecast for Monday morning's low is 1 above. But it honestly could end up at up to five degrees either side of that figure. 

If you're away from the lake, it's pretty much guaranteed you'll be below zero early tomorrow morning.  temperatures will vary early Monday much more than they did this morning. The cold hollows could make it into the mid and upper teens below zero.

CHILLIER OUTLOOK

It's not going to warm up as much or as fast during the upcoming week as originally thought. A quick Alberta Clipper will probably sneak through real quick Monday night and Tuesday, throwing a couple more inches of snow our way. 

Meanwhile, the high pressure that's bringing our weekend nasty chill will park itself over southeastern Quebec much of the week. The air mass will modify, so that temperatures will become seasonable and comfortable - highs in the 20s to low 30s.

But since there won't be much in the way of south winds, and the snow cover will help chill the air near the ground, there won't be any wholesale warmup at least until the end of the week. 

However, it could warm up a lot toward the New Year.  A strange weather pattern is setting up that will roast most of North America, relatively speaking, in oddly balmy air for winter. I'll get into that in an upcoming post.