Snow Continues To Set Records In Vermont's Green Mountains

A snowy view of Vermont's Mount Mansfield from
January, 2021. This year, it's especially wintry up
there. As of Friday, there was 63 inches of snow on
the ground near the top of the mountain, a record
for so early in the season. 

 The ski and riding season is off to the best start in memory over Vermont's Green Mountains with another boatload of snow up there this past week. 

There is a hiccup looming in the snow parade, but for now (more on that in a minute) But for now, it's pretty wild up there. 

The snow depth near the top of Mount Mansfield, Vermont's highest peak, reached 63 inches on Friday, breaking the old record depth for the date of 56 inches. 

The 63 inch snow depth is the earliest in the season on record for so much snow.  Until Friday, the snow depth up there had never gotten to 63 inches any earlier than December 26. 

In a typical winter, there's 21 inches of snow on the ground up there this time of year. Mount Mansfield usually doesn't have 63 inches of snow piled up until early February.   

The folks up at Jay Peak near the Canadian border, said they received about two feet of snow in the 36 hours ending early this morning. Snowfall so far this season up there is 185 inches. Their Saturday snow report says that's the most they've ever seen for so early in the season. 

That Jay Peak report also gave us this statement:  "The amount of snow is starting to feel borderline terrifying, but it skis like a dream." 

It's rare for ski areas in Vermont to have all their terrain open this season, but all of Jay Peak's alpine and Nordic trails are open as of this morning. 

Elsewhere, both Smugglers' Notch and Stowe have already had more than 100 inches of snowfall this season so far.

This has really been a mountain snow blitz, with Vermont valleys kind of sitting this one out. Snowfall so far this season has been a little more than average in northern Vermont valleys and definitely nothing special in the low lands of southern Vermont. 

So far this season, Burlington has had 18.9 inches of snow, which is 6.7 inches ahead of normal as of Friday. St. Johnsbury has had 13.4 inches of snow so far this month, which means they're running a little ahead of average 

What makes the snow even more remarkable in the northern Green Mountains is the lack of thaws since Thanksgiving.  That's a rarity for December, especially in recent years when record or near record warmth has often hit during the last month of the year. 

This year's cold December weather has contributed to the deep snow cover in the mountains. In the valleys, snow cover is pretty substantial for this time of year, but not record-breaking. Two towns near Jay Peak, Westfield and Montgomery, had 20 inches on the ground as of Friday, which is a lot. 

Greensboro had 16 inches, but I couldn't find any other towns listed by the National Weather Service as having more than a foot of snow covering the landscape. 

OUTLOOK

There might be a little more snow today, but most places around Vermont should receive an inch or less. The mountains could pick up two or three inches, but this will be a minor little event. 

A few more light snow showers look like they'll come through Monday night.  But for the most part, nature's snow hose is temporarily just a dribble. 

The powder party in the mountains looks like it'll finally get interrupted around Thursday. By then, a well-anticipated weather pattern change will have gotten established. Instead of pushes of cold air from Canada, we'll have a  really fast, west-to-east flow across the United States.

This will allow squirts of warm air to come up ahead of storms zipping along in that flow. The first of these will probably come through here around Thursday, as mentioned. At this point,  it's looking like some rain will come with it, even in the high elevations. 

Details on this forecast are still a bit iffy, and subject to change, as always. But for now, it does look like the fast motion of the storm will mean the rain and the thawing won't last long enough to melt a huge amount of snow, and it probably won't really rain hard.  Plus, I imagine there will be a little snow at the tail end of the storm as a parting gift. 

After a brief cooldown, there might be another system next Sunday sort of similar to Thursday's zipping on through. 

Some of the computer models are hinting at a larger storm probably just after Christmas. But it's way too soon yet to figure out if there will indeed be a storm, and if so, what type. 

It seems there's some sort of good sized storm somewhere around Christmas almost every year. So this is a good reminder to bank extra time if you're traveling over the holiday in case the weather goes south. 

Vermont Mountains Buried In Snow, But Weather Now Going Quiet

We weren't able to get all of the flower pots and deck 
furniture put away before winter weather arrived a 
little over a week ago here in St. Albans, Vermont. 
There's still snow on the ground, and forecasts
indicate it won't melt away quickly. 

Most of the snow that kept falling and falling and falling on many of Vermont's mountains is finally pretty much over as of this morning. 

The snow depth near the top of Mount Mansfield reached 38 inches by late Monday afternoon, the deepest on record for the date.

 There have only been six other November dates since 1954 with more snow on the ground on than on Monday. 

Those six dates were all in the Novembers in 1990 and 2018.  

This doesn't predict what kind of winter we're going to have. In Burlington, the winter of 1990-91 was the ninth least snowiest  on record in Burlington. The winter of 2018-19 was the tenth snowiest on record, 

On Sunday and Monday, the mountains collected almost all the snow, with valleys pretty much avoiding almost everything. True, many towns in the Northeast Kingdom managed a few inches, but everyone outside of the Green Mountains and their western slopes.

On the western slopes, Underhill Center saw 9.8 inches of new snow, and Fletcher got 8 inches. Most places got less than an inch. 

The almost daily snows we've seen in the Vermont mountains are pretty much shutting off for awhile. 

Instead, we're going to have a probably sort of brief interlude of boring weather. Which is par for the course for November, and, frankly a bit of a relief from the admittedly badly needed storminess we've recently experienced.  Drought relief is still welcome. 

Actually, the whole nation is getting a break from recent storminess. Only modest storms will cross the United States for the next few days. 

For us, we'll have quiet weather today through Thursday. There might even be a little bit of sun each day, especially on Wednesday. How about that for a change?  

It's been chilly, and unfortunately, or fortunately, depending on your perspective, it's not going to warm up much over the next three days. It'll get to 40 degrees in some of the broader valleys, which I suppose is an improvement over the past week or so. 

If you still have snow on the ground, it's not going to go away quickly.

One of those "meh" storms will come through us here in Vermont around Friday. Since it will be somewhat warmer than it's been lately, most of the precipitation with this thing will come down as rain. Even in the mountains. 

This won't be a big storm at all, so no flooding, no drama. Just a little wet weather for the end of the week. 

Computer models have been hinting it might really warm up around Vermont in the closing days of November, at least for a little while. But some of those forecasts are backing off on that idea. I'm doubting we'll see any truly balmy late autumn weather in the foreseeable future. 

Meanwhile, we still have some uncertain signs of a return to more exciting weather once we get into December.  That just means a more active weather pattern. It's too soon to tell what "exciting" will mean once we get past the Thanksgiving weekend. 

Mount Mansfield, Vermont Now Has More Snow Than It Has In Seven Years; And Did Lake Champlain Freeze?

Matthew Parrilla's Mount Mansfield snow chart
shows the depth is well above average for this
time of year. Red line is this year, black line
is average. 

 While the amount of snow on the ground in most Vermont valleys has diminished a little due to recent thaws, the flakes keep piling up atop the state's highest peak. 

As of Saturday, there was 102 inches of snow on the ground at the stake on Mount Mansfield, not far below the summit. 

It's the second highest snow depth on record for that date atop the mountain. They've been keeping track of the snow depths up there since 1954.

This is the first time snow depth has exceeded 100 inches since April 18. 2019, when late season mountain snows brought the depth up above 8.5 feet. 

It looks like the April 18, 2019 figure hit as the snow on Mount Mansfield was just beginning to melt. A few weeks earlier, the snow depth was right around 119 inches. 

Judging by Matthew Parrilla's excellent Mount Mansfield snow charts, the deepest snow on record atop Mount Mansfield was around 145 inches around April 1, 1969. 

By Sunday, the snow depth on Mount Mansfield had increased to 103 inches. That might be a peak depth, but perhaps only a temporary one. 

Rainfall is expected even at summit level Wednesday and part of Thursday which would settle the 102 inches back somewhat. However, the snow depth on Mount Mansfield typically peaks around the third or fourth week in March. 

  Even if some of the snow melts or settles this week, more snow later in March could bring the snow depth to even more than they have now. 

LAKE CHAMPLAIN

Satellite view from Sunday shows a snow-covered
northern New England. That dark patch of blue
is an ice-free area of Lake Champlain Sunday afternoon.
Early this morning, we're waiting for new satellite
photos to determine if any or all of that open
water froze over last night and early this morning. 

If Lake Champlain didn't freeze over in last night's calm, frigid weather, it won't completely freeze over this year.

It came close in mid to late February, when only small open pockets were visible on the broad lake. Last week's thaw left a huge section of the broad lake open by Sunday ice-free, as satellite photos under Sunday's clear skies revealed. 

However, the water temperature is right near 32 degrees, so that big area of ice-free water could entirely freeze. It's unlikely, given it was such a huge area, but it could.

As temperatures plunged to near and below zero, skies remained clear. Those clear skies will help later this morning as satellite photos will be able to tell whether the lake froze over. 

An early look at the satellite photos ag 8:15 a.m. today seemed to indicate there was still open water in Lake Champlain this morning, but I'll update if I receive any confirmation later. 

If the lake didn't freeze over by early today, it won't this season.  Even though it will be below freezing today, enough sunshine and light breezes will prevent a daytime freeze over.  Then, a big warm spell is due midweek, which will erode away more of the lake ice.  

The last time the lake completely froze over was on March 8, 2019. The lake has never frozen over later in the year than March 11.