Vermont's Remarkably Calm Weather Autumn Ended This Morning Amid Damaging Windstorm

UPDATE: WINDSTORM DAMAGE

Strong winds early this morning collapsed tents and scattered
art and craft booths at the Stowe Foliage Arts Festival,
forcing its cancelation for the rest of the weekend. 

Our early morning Vermont wind storm caused even more trouble than I reported earlier this morning.

Most notably, the wind caused extensive damage at - and force the closure - of the popular Stowe Foliage Arts Festival. 

Strong winds around 6 this morning swept and collared a large tent onto display booths, which were themselves toppled and in some cases blown around.  

The festival is working to refund ticket holders and to salvage as much artwork as they can.

As terrible as this situation is, it's fortunate the wind came through when nobody was in the tents. Had it come through later, the tents would have collapsed on dozens, perhaps even a few hundred people.

There's no estimate yet on the dollar amount of damage. The Arts Festival is normally a huge draw, and this weekend is likely the peak weekend both for Vermont fall foliage and for the annual influx of leaf peepers.

Traffic is reportedly backed up on Route 100 between Waterbury and Stowe, and on Interstate 89 in Waterbury. The traffic appears to be caused by the influx of tourist and not from wind damage. 

The number of power outages in Vermont peaked at more than 12,000 at around 8:30 this morning. That number had declined to about 4,700 as of 1 p.m. today. 

Reported wind gusts were reported as high as 58 mph at Lowell and Brookfield, Vermont and 52 mph at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

The winds were caused by a rather dry, but strong cold front that passed through Vermont this morning. There were some strong winds aloft that the front dragged down toward the surface, which created the hefty wind gusts. 

It was still quite breezy out there as of early afternoon, but the winds have diminished below the point where they could cause more damage. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

While cataclysmic disasters, record shattering heat waves, wildfires and other calamities swirled through the United States this autumn, we in Vermont were blissful bystanders. 

Vermont has sailed along peacefully with remarkably benign weather since late August.

 Sure, it's been mostly much warmer than average, but we haven't had extreme heat, but we have had an incredible amount of sun. 

There's been no floods,  no severe thunderstorms, the wind has consisted of just pleasant breezes, and for most of us, the first frosts and freezes of the season have been running late.  Even spells of high humidity have been absent. 

We needed the break, after the rough summer of floods we had.

Well, this long break is over. 

The great news is there is no new disaster looming over Vermont that I can see. But the placid weather is over, at least for now, and things are getting active. And we're back to the wait a minute it will change type weather. 

Expect. wind, frost, rain and cold temperatures. And snow. Don't forget snow. 

It started early this morning.

GUSTY WINDS

I feel like an idiot. We have some cold-sensitive potted trees out in the back deck, including a sort of tall palm type tree, a hibiscus and an orange tree.  I was going to take them in Friday evening, but I had a rough day, so I blew it off. 

This large umbrella, which was anchored to our deck floor
in St. Albans, Vermont, was toppled by strong winds this
morning and narrowly missed shattering a large window
on our house. The strong winds cost power to more 
than 10,000 Vermont customer early today. 

The plan was to take them in tonight, given forecasts of a possible Saturday night frost. More on that in a moment. 

Problem was, I didn't pay attention to the forecast. After a balmy night, a strong cold front passed through around 5 a.m up here in St. Albans. 

The forecast had called for some rather strong wind gusts with and just after the cold front and sure enough. They gusted to at least 50 mph at my place before dawn today. 

The wind knocked down two of those trees. Both look somewhat damaged. I'm a moron. I think I can save them, though. Gusts have so far reached 45 mph in Burlington and 49 mph in Montpelier. I'm sure a few spots have gusted to maybe 55 mph. The wind over-performed somewhat

Those winds have been causing some scattered issues out there. Some tree limbs and a few power lines are coming down here and there. As of 6:45 a.m today, vtoutages.org reported 8,000 homes and businesses mostly in central and northern Vermont without power. That number was rising rapidly, and reached 10,000 by 7:15 a.m.

The gusty winds should continue for a few hours this morning before diminishing somewhat that afternoon.

Today's near-normal high temperatures in the low 60s happened early this morning. They'll be falling all day. In anticipation of a chilly night

FROST SUNDAY MORNING?

Depending on how fast clouds come in tonight, we might have the most widespread frost of the season so far overnight. That's not saying much, given we haven't had any really cold weather to speak of so far.

The cold front will slow down south of us to hook up with a developing storm (which I'm getting to). Clouds should start streaming back north overnight, which could put a halt to the frost threat in southern and central Vermont. The best chances of a frost are in the northern half of Vermont away from Lake Champlain. If you still have some tender plants out there are garden veggies that need harvesting, do it today. 

COLD STORM

Most of the rain we have managed to receive since late August has come amid mild weather storms. This one will be more akin to a winter storm. But don't worry, unless you live way up in the higher elevation, there's no need to dig out your snow shovels just yet.

But this will be a damp, cold drenching nonetheless. Rain will start to break out Sunday afternoon. Highs should probably make it to near 50 and that's about it. 

Rain should continue Sunday night and into Monday. Lows Sunday night could get into the upper 30s - perilously close to snow temperatures. But some lame amounts of warmish air coming in aloft should keep snow and sleet limited to the highest elevations. At least that's how it looks now.

Amid the light rain and clouds Monday, it will be November like, with highs only in the 40s.

The rainfall won't cause any flooding, but it might be something of a soaker. Predicted rainfall with this in Vermont is somewhere a little either side of one inch. 

MORE HIGH ELEVATION SNOW?

The November weather should continue Tuesday and Wednesday. That storm system we're getting will stall briefly in eastern Canada, sending chilly, gusty winds and moisture through Vermont. That means more rain and snow showers.

Some flakes could well make it onto valley floors at times during this period, but shouldn't accumulate. Such flurries are not weird for mid-October, but they'll be a shock to the system if they do happen.

Very high Green Mountain elevations  - above 2,500 feet -  could see several inches of snow out of this if the moisture in the cold northwest winds is adequate. Ski areas will love this, not because they'll open right away, but because the snow might spur season ticket sales.

TEMPORARY?

There are signs that this spell of active well is just a pre-winter tease. I'm still seeing signs we'll go back to generally benign, calm and often sunny weather starting Thursday and Friday. A noticeable warming trend should set in by Friday as well and continue at least into next weekend.  

Sunday's Vermont Flash Floods Repeat A Disturbing, Worsening Pattern

A big gush of rain over Lake Champlain last summer.
Climate change is helping to make summer downpours
heavier. Local flash floods, like what happened Sunday
in central Vermont, are unfortunately getting more common

The flash flooding that hit parts of north-central Vermont last Sunday certainly weren't as bad as last summer's catastrophic summer flooding, but it still stung, big time. 

Especially since it keeps happening over and over again.

It seems like mountain towns barely clean up from the washed out roads, slopes and culverts from flash floods when the next one hits. 

Climate change has increased the likelihood that our normal summer cloudbursts become not so normal, and instead, especially have and destructive. 

 "It's a bit scary at this point how often we have to put Humpty Dumpty back together again," Stowe Director of Public Works told WPTZ. "I've been Stowe's public works director for 14 years, and this is the seventh event that would exceed a 100-year storm." 

Sunday's storm dumped at least two inches of rain on Stowe in just 30 minutes. There's no way you can contain the runoff from that, especially considering there had been downpours earlier in the afternoon. 

There was a report that the rainfall rate in Jericho during one storm reached 6.25 inches per hour. Obviously, that was just a few minutes of the storm and the town didn't actually accumulate that much rain. 

 The flooding Sunday was not limited to Stowe.  Video on Facebook showed a raging brook overwhelming a road in Worcester. Several roads in that town had to be closed because of flood damage.

Last summer's catastrophic floods understandably captured most of the attention, but its these local floods that hit Stowe, Worcester and Elmore Sunday that will be the most common in our climate changed, wetter world. 

Vermont's geography makes the region prone to flash floods. If torrential rains hits a mountainous area, the water rushes down the steep slopes, and often carries mud, rocks and branches with it. Just a couple inches of rain in an hour can unleash some real damage. 

The distressing thing is the flash floods are happening frequently enough now, you never know which of our many summer downpours will turn destructive. I'm sure public works crews and many others in Vermont brace themselves when they hear of a heavy rain risk. 

There's always close misses, too.  Flash flooding was reported in southern New England last night from a storm whose punch luckily passed south of Vermont. There's also a very low, but not zero chance of flash flooding in Vermont Saturday night. (Though so far I'm not especially worried about that one, stay tuned).

Like many other places around the nation and world, Vermont is trying to build resilience to these repeated disasters with bigger, stronger culverts and such. But as Sunday's storm in Stowe demonstrates, there's only so much you can do.

Expect many more rounds of flash flood damage in Vermont in the coming years, especially in the summers.  

Mysterious Tiny Vermont Snowstorm Defies Explanation

While most of Vermont got virtually no snow
on New Year's Eve, a small pocket near
Stowe and Waterbury mysteriously 
received several inches. Photo via
Facebook, Scott Brazen/NWS Burlington

 File this under "The weather always surprises."

Remember how I told you on the afternoon of New Year's Eve that things would be great on Vermont roads?  All we had to worry about was a few flurries and a low overcast. 

That forecast proved true for probably 99 percent of Vermont. 

But a small area along the lower reaches of Route 108 in Stowe, part of Route 100 between Waterbury and Stowe, and a small section of Interstate 89 in Waterbury got a snowstorm New Year's Eve. 

During the day and into the night, that tiny area received up to six, seven, eight inches of snow. The snow just kept falling all afternoon and most of the night.  

The roads in this little zone were snow covered and slippery. Meanwhile, just a few miles up the road in any direction from this snow zone, it was just flurries with pretty much bare ground. 

So what happened?

I have no idea. This tiny little snowstorm has Vermont meteorologists scratching their heads.  This was a weird one.

On New Year's Eve, there was a northwest flow of air, which had a bit of moisture in it. Often in the winter, that situation unloads a few inches of snow on the western slopes of the Green Mountains. The slopes force the air to rise. The rising air cools, moisture condenses and that can lead to that snow on the western slopes. It's very common in Vermont. 

But on New Year's Eve, the condition were not quite right for western slope snow. Those areas all received just a half inch of snow or less.  

Now, the theory of what happened around Stowe  needs you to imagine a submerged boulder in a fast-flowing river. The rushing water goes up and over the boulder.  And then there's a series of waves below the boulder, sort of echoes of the initial wave.  The waves all stay in one place, so they're called standing waves.

Mount Mansfield and the rest of the Green Mountains were doing the same thing as that submerged boulder in the river.  

The air having reached the summit, flowed down the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains. Sinking air usually helps prevent rain or snow, so it's not surprising the immediate eastern slopes of the mountains weren't getting much snow. The ski runs at Mount Mansfield Resort were barely dusted.

Once past those eastern slopes, the air began rising again, the first of those downstream waves.  Remember, rising air helps create snow. 

But, if the northwest wind's first encounter with the western slopes of the Green Mountains manufactured almost no snow, how did the snow develop at the down stream wave in the air?  And why just in that spot and not elsewhere?

My best guess - and it's only a guess - is convergence.  Perhaps the terrain in that spot squeezed the air from either side, funneling it into a narrow space.  Maybe the combination of rising air, and that rising air being compressed from either side was enough to produce snow?  

Under the right conditions, convergence can really boost snow totals. Burlington's greatest snowstorm, 33.1 inches, on January 3, 2010.  Most of Vermont just had a moderate snowstorm that day, the usual six to 12 inches in most areas.

But in Burlington, moist north winds coming from Quebec got squeezed between the Adirondacks and the Green Mountains. That added to lift in the atmosphere so it snowed like hell. (Also, moisture off of Lake Champlain helped boost the snow that day, too). 

By the way, the Stowe-area mini-storm might not have been the only one in Vermont on New Year's Eve. There was a report from Victory, in the Northeast Kingdom, of a local spot with up to six inches of snow, with nothing just two miles away from that location.