Monday Noon Update: Storm/Flooding Is Worse In Vermont Than Expected, Of Course

Town of Waitsfield posted this photo of a flooded
road in town to Facebook. Dozens of Vermont
roads are closed due to flooding this afternoon.

I've got a little time for a noon update.  

Rainfall has over-performed in Vermont, and the result has been some damaging flooding.

It's not as bad as in July, but it is serious. There are plenty of reports of road closures, and some property damage. Water got into the Moretown Elementary School, forcing it to shut down for the day. 

There have also been some road washouts reported across the state. Sections of a few dozen roads at least are closed or at least under water. Flood warnings cover large swaths of Vermont this afternoon. There's no one place it seems that has been hit particularly hard. It's every corner of the state. 

Among the roads closed are several around Chester, Route 14 in Sharon and numerous roads in and around Chester. This is kind of concerning because the area under the flood warning was especially hard hit during the July flood.

I don't know whether the landscape was left unstable after the July flood, making it more prone to problems now.  

Some pretty strong winds have been reported in eastern Vermont, and along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. Nearly 4,000 homes and businesses were without power as of 12:30 pm. 

The path of the storm so far, pretty much headed up the Champlain Valley, has caused some weird contrasts. There's record warmth, odd December humidity and gusty winds in most of Vermont. Temperatures are in the upper 50s to low 60s.

But in the immediate Champlain Valley, winds are much lighter and temperatures are holding in the upper 40s. 

It seems like most of the heaviest rain was just moving out of Vermont as of 12:30 p.m. There's one more batch to get through, with the storm center itself. That might help local runoff calm down a little bit. Another batch of heavy rain looks like it might move through during the mid-afternoon.

Mainstem rivers will get higher tonight, overnight and early Tuesday than earlier expected. Again, not July levels, but we'll see lots of moderate flooding at least.

Be careful on the roads through tonight. There's high water and potential washouts everywhere. 

I'll have a much more detailed update this evening. By then the storm should be waning, but there will be updated news and forecasts on flooding which will certainly be ongoing even if the rain is starting to taper off by then. 

Tuesday Morning Update: Snow Over-Performing in Much Of Vermont So Far, Power Outages Ramping Up

Wet snow clinging to every little branch this morning,'
St. Albans, Vermont. 

 Wet snow has been piling up in Vermont overnight and this morning, and some of the snow totals are showing that at least so far, this storm is over-performing. 

A high elevations site near Readsboro, Vermont reported 22.1 inches. Before 8 a.m. Andover, Vermont had received 14 inches of snow. Randolph Center and Shrewsbury were up to 11 inches, with Mount Holly close behind at 10 inches.  The snow will continue to crush those relatively high elevation towns all day today and well  into tonight. 

If this keeps up, we'll see totals going well over two feet.  We shall see!

Lower elevations and northern Vermont have seen more modest accumulations, as expected. Most places were in the two to four inch range as of around 7 am. today.

In northwestern Vermont, where relatively little was expected, there was already two inches in St. Albans as of 8:15 a.m. Closer to Burlington, traffic cams show perhaps only an inch of slushy accumulation, as it has been warm enough there to have some of the snow melts as it hits the ground. 

Traffic cam on Route 4 on Mendon Mountain showing'
near blizzard conditions.....

The snow will tend to taper off in the far north for a time today,  but even those northern areas are ending up with a little more snow than forecast. 

As expected, it's a heavy wet snow, and this is turning into yet another disaster for Vermont utilities. Around 9 a.m. Vermont Outages was reporting about 21,000 customers in the Green Mountain State without power, and that number was zooming up rapidly. Unsurprisingly, most of the outages were in southern Vermont where the heaviest snow has been. 

I've noticed road closures in southern Vermont, too, including along portions of Interstate 91 due mostly to crashes and jack knifed tractor trailer units. Along main roads in low elevations of northern and central Vermont, things aren't too bad as of this morning, since temperatures are near freezing. Go uphill a little bit and it's a different story. 

Today, and especially tonight, it's probably best to stay off the roads in southern Vermont, and high elevations of central and northern Vermont. Conditions will get worse on the roads in northern Vermont valleys tonight. 

The snow is the consistency of wet cement in many areas. Just that two inches of snow in St. Albans has the trees sagging remarkably.  I've already heard one small branch crack and fall in the woods. I can't imaging what those places with a foot of wet snow are going through. 

UP NEXT

The storm had an initial storm near Long Island that is responsible for most of the snow we've had so far. This storm is fading as the bombing big nor'easter takes over. That big storm is way, way off the coast, and under normal circumstances would only give Vermont a glancing blow at best.

But the big storm is being drawn westward, tugged that way by upper level low pressure. This is of course odd, but things happen. The storm will make it to near Boston later today, perform a little loop in southeastern New England tonight, all the while strengthening. Then it will slowly move eastward away from New England tomorrow. 

But along Interstate 89 in low elevation Milton, the snow
was mostly melting as it hit. Some parts of northern
Vermont won't be too bad today, while others areas,
mostly south and high elevations have a memorable, deep
and sometimes destructive snowstorm.

This will keep wild weather going in most of New England today and tonight. Southern and probably central Vermont will probably be in the thick of the storm all day and night. Northern areas, already only getting the edges of this monster, will see the snow relax for a time later this morning and early afternoon.  

In the deepest valleys of southern and central areas, the snow might stop accumulating for a time today, or at least slow down, as temperatures come up a couple of degrees. Mid and high elevations will continue to see snow, coming down at a rate of an inch or more per hour at times.

Later today and tonight, light snow will redevelop in the north and accumulate possibly a 2 to 4 more inches by tomorrow. 

As the storm strengthens, so will the wind. Which is bad news for already overburdened trees and power lines. 

Temperatures will drop some tonight into the mid and upper 20s, so that will make the snow less wet and heavy. Which I suppose is good, given the state of affairs with the power lines. But it will also enable the snow to blow around, and some areas will have near blizzard conditions at times.

This even includes the Champlain Valley. There won't be much new snow, but wind gusts to 40 mph will really blow it around in open areas. 

Things will only slowly improve tomorrow. The snow will taper off and retreat to the mountains. Winds will continue to gust to 30 or 40 mph, so that will slow down the work of restoring power. 

Even though we're in the thick of the storm now, there will probably be changes to the forecast for the rest of the storm as new data comes in. 

This will be a memorable storm for many areas of Vermont. But snow accumulation will be way more variable than we usually see with winter storms. Some areas in the far north will see less than six inches. High elevation areas in the south could see more than two feet. 

Mid-March is definitely holding on to its reputation for powerhouse winter storms in New England.