Latest Vermont Flood: Details Emerge As Questions Grow About FEMA

Map of rainfall yesterday in Vermont, from data 
collected by the National Weather Service in 
South Burlington. Heavy rains were confined
to parts of the Northeast Kingdom, and a 
couple spotty areas in central Vermont. 

For the third year in a row, some Vermonters are picking up the pieces today after yet another flash flood. 

The tiny town of Northeast Kingdom town of Sutton, population of less than 1,000, appears to be the hardest hit. The good news is that so far, I haven't heard of any serious injuries with this latest flood. 

But the damage was also scattered around the state. A large section of the Middlebury Union High School roof was torn off by intense thunderstorm winds on Thursday. The roof damage allowed some of torrential rains with the storm pour into the boy's locker room, cafeteria and auditorium. 

Officials at the school said the interior damage was thankfully not severe. 

Flood damage was still being tallied in West Burke, East Haven and other Northeast Kingdom towns, along with some spots in Addison County.  But Sutton took the brunt of it. Video from Live Storms Media showed water racing across a road near Sutton, forming a waterfall on one side where the road had washed away. 

 Vermont Public reports that the swift water rescue in Sutton involved a couple and their dog, who were pulled off their roof by the rescue group during the flood. 

Rainfall was highly variable and highly localized. Only a few places received torrents of rain. Many  Vermont towns received little or no rain yesterday. 

The disparity was evident even within the counties hit hardest. West Burke in Caledonia County reported 5.12 inches of rain. But in the opposite end of the county, Wells River and Barton saw only 0.04 inches.  

This is a map of rainfall in the July, 2023 flood. As you
can see here, that one affected pretty much the whole
state, not just a few areas. Pink and purple areas had
at least five inches of rain. Compared to yesterday,
July 23 was many times worse. 

Slow moving thunderstorms parking over certain towns were to blame. Disconcertingly, that same issue of stalled downpours has arisen today. But the storms are very few and far between, and smaller in size than yesterday's.   

If any new flash flooding develops late this afternoon or this evening, it will be highly isolated. However, we're still looking at low but not zero chances of isolated flash flooding Saturday, Sunday and Monday. 

That the chances of new flooding are - fingers crossed - low is good news, as some towns already have a ton of damage. 

Further details from Vermont Public:

"Roughly 20 homes in the Caledonia County town remained cut off from road access as of Friday morning, according to the town fire chief. Town officials said they've made contact with most of these homeowners, but expect it will take several days to make these roads passable.

The storm overwhelmed many of Sutton's roads, culverts and ditches and damaged several homes along Calendar Brook Road. 

According to initial estimates, repairs to the town infrastructure could cost upward of a million dollars - after Sutton has already spent millions on recovery from previous floods."

I don't think anybody knows where Sutton - and other affected towns in the Northeast Kingdom will get the money to fix damage from the latest calamity. 

This is especially true with the Federal Emergency Management Agency's future in doubt. 

FEMA AND VERMONT

We won't know for awhile yet whether the damage in Vermont would qualify for federal assistance even under the "old rules" for federal assistance that were in effect before Donald Trump took office in January. 

Even if Vermont qualifies for help under those old rules, who knows whether we'll receive it? Everything Trumpian is subject to his whims, and information and plans shift like the breeze.

Trump has said he wants to abolish FEMA. Or change it. Or shift all the responsibility to the states. 

Today, as Trump headed to Texas to survey damage from a deadly Fourth of July flood that was many, many orders of magnitude worse than what Vermont saw, his administration's previous vows to abolish FEMA are wavering. 

Per today's Washington Post:

"A senior White House official told the Washington Post that no official action is being taken to wind down FEMA, and that changes in the agency will probably amount to a 'rebranding' that will emphasize state leaders' roles in disaster response."

In other words, nobody has a clue what will happen. 

Which is the question everybody including Vermonters who would deal with disasters are asking. .  

Per Vermont Public: 

"State and national experts say only one thing is clear as of now: The new federal administration wants states to assume a bigger role in disaster response and recovery. The ambiguity over what that looks like, according to Eric Forand, director of Vermont Emergency Management, has complicated the business of disaster preparedness for state officials trying to gird for the next catastrophe."

Given Vermont's track record, this is really an important question.

Vermont Public had an eye-opening stat: 

"Vermont, which has experienced 25 federal disaster declarations since 2011, has been particularly reliant on federal aid. According to a recent analysis, the state has received more federal disaster assistance per capita over the past 14 years than any states but Louisiana, Hawaii, and New York."

There's no reason to think that trend will stop. Vermont is a flood-prone state. Climate change will continue to intensify storms, so more big floods are inevitable. We've already had two damaging flash floods this year, and we're only now getting into the peak of what you might call peak flash flood season.

Those humid July and August dog days can really produce those downpours. More so with climate change. 

 The theoretical solution for this entire mess is for the state, and disaster-prone towns to build up a rainy day fun to deal with inevitable future disasters. 

Good luck with that. The floods of 2023 and 2024 cost several individual towns more money than their entire annual budget. I'm pretty sure local taxpayers can't hand over twice the amount or more they've been paying already. 

We're lucky yesterday wasn't as bad as it could have been.

But still, we're screwed. 

  

BREAKING: Tornado Confirmed In Benson, Vermont

6:15 PM FRIDAY UPDATE

A possible microburst over Lake Champlain Thursday. 
Although the picture looks tornadic, it wasn't. However
meteorolists confirmed a Thursday tornado in Benson, Vermont. UPDATE

CORRECTION: It's actually NOT two tornadoes, just one. I was confused by apparently two site visits the National Weather Service conducted.

So to be clear, there is only ONE confirmed Vermont tornado from Thursday, the one near Benson.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Meteorologists with the National Weather Service in South Burlington confirmed that a tornado touched down in Benson Thursday.  

Thursday's  EF-0 tornado packed winds of 85 mph. It was a narrow, but long-tracked tornado by Vermont standards. It appears to have only been 20 yards wide, but had a path length of 12.3 miles.  It's possible the tornado lifted, but later touched back down again. 

But true to form in this disastrous summer in Vermont, the meteorologists couldn't determine if there were more touchdowns with this tornado. They couldn't access areas to investigate due to flooded roads. 

The tell-tale sign of a tornado was that trees and power poles fell in different directions. That indicates there must have been the swirling winds associated with the twister.  Nobody was hurt, but several power poles were snapped near the intersection of Routes 30 and 144. 

The meteorologists also investigated an area of extensive wind damage in Shoreham. They determined that a microburst, not a tornado caused the destruction. All the trees that fell toppled over toward the northeast, meaning there was no swirl of a tornado involved. 

Proving that microbursts can be as destructive as tornadoes, the meteorologists noted up to 75 large trees uprooted, metal torn from roofs and siding torn from houses,  and a mile wide area of corn was flattened. Fencing simply disappeared and  could not be found. 

The National Weather Service estimated top winds in the microburst reached 85 mph.

I'm not sure if the meteorologists are investigating other areas of damage associated with Thursday's storms, but I'll keep you posted. 

As Expected, Severe Storms Added To Vermont Misery; New Flood Threats Loom

A thunderstorm dumped a huge gush of torrential rain
on a section of Lake Champlain as Thursday afternoon'
as the latest round of storms began. 

 Just as expected, a line of severe thunderstorms Thursday added to the damage and misery in Vermont, while residents gear up for the risk of more flooding.  

And there was added bad news from Barre. The first Vermont flood fatality has been reported. A 63-year old man drowned in his flooded house, the Vermont Health Department reported. 

The damage from Thursday's storms was of course much less than what we dealt with early in the week. But, between the local flash flooding, the wind damage and the power outages - plus the interruptions to cleanup the storms caused - it wasn't something we needed.

All but the somehow charmed northwest corner of Vermont were hit by the storms. (I don't know what it is about Franklin, Grand Isle and northwestern Chittenden County, but that area is the only one almost untouched by our summer of horrible storms).

THURSDAY'S STORMS:

The most intense storm was an apparent supercell that entered Vermont from New York roughly at the Rutland/Addison county line and moved northeast into central parts of the state, apparently making it as far as Braintree and Vershire in eastern Vermont. 

Rotation in the storm prompted a tornado warning for northern Rutland and southern Addison County.  Social media contained reports of funnel clouds and in that area, and there was a particular concentration of trees and power lines down in areas like Hubbarton, Sudbury and Whiting, Ripton, Chittenden and Waitsfield.

A funnel cloud with noticeable rotation was also reported in Waitsfield. 

I haven't heard whether there's enough evidence for the National Weather Service in South Burlington to send investigators to determine whether a tornado touched down. Stay tuned on that. 

Our neighbors to the north tangled with tornadoes and severe storms.  A tornado in an Ottawa suburb damaged 125 homes. Another tornado touched down near the Montreal region's Mirabel airport. Montreal itself suffered a lot of wind damage and flash floods. 

Bask in Vermont, at the peak of the storms, 18,000 or so homes and businesses were without power. By 6:30 a.m. today, that number had dropped to about 4,000, mostly in Rutland County. 

The storms created new flash flooding in Orwell, Castleton, Belmont and South Lincoln, among other places. Water was over Route 30 near Lake Bomoseen, and over Routes 73 and 22A around Orwell, where 2.1 inches of rain fell in just an hour and 15 minutes.

In any other year, this would have been the worst summer storm of the year.  Not this time.

And it ain't over yet.

TODAY

The weather front that caused Thursday's mayhem in Vermont has gotten hung up in central New England. 

Low visibility on Interstate 89 in Waterbury Thursday
evening as a torrential thunderstorm passed through. 

The front's proximity means showers and thunderstorms will blossom again today.  They could happen anywhere in Vermont, but will be most concentrated over the southern half of the state.

There was already a batch of renewed rain passing through far southern Vermont early this morning. 

The storms could easily  generate renewed flash flooding over southern Vermont today. 

Any new flash flooding would be more harassment than anything widespread.  Just enough to add to the damage tally, and maybe undo some of the repairs on mountainous back roads in Windham and Bennington counties.

As always, take any flash flooding seriously, and don't try to drive over flooded roads. 

I think northern Vermont is basically in the clear for flooding today, despite some scattered downpours and thunderstorms around. 

SATURDAY

A pretty low risk day, all things considered.  Thunderstorms will be few and far between. There's a quite low but not zero chance that a slow moving storm could cause one or two local problems, but overall, Saturday will be a bit of a breather. 

SUNDAY

Another risky day. We're expecting yet another surge of deep moisture feeding into New England, including Vermont. There's definitely a risk of more flooding, and it could be on the fairly extensive side. 

It won't be as bad as Monday and Tuesday but it is something to watch. We're at risk for at least a little more flood damage on Sunday. 

"I know this is hard news for many. And folks will want to think this is over as soon as the weather breaks on Saturday," Vermont Gov. Phil Scott said. "But it's critical that Vermonters understand that we need to remain vigilant and prepared. Do not be complacent."

It's hard to say where the heaviest rain might set up. Early indications point to southern and eastern Vermont, and especially New Hampshire and parts of Massachusetts. I'll have more updates on this for sure as we get closer. 

NEXT WEEK:

We're still not entirely out of the woods.  At least spotty heavy rain is possible Tuesday, and maybe toward the end of the week. It's too soon to say how heavy and exactly where. But since soil conditions will still be quite wet, it won't take much to set off new trouble.