Early Thursday Update: Worrisome Wind Forecasts For Much Of Vermont

Updated wind forecast issued Wednesday afternoon. Peak
gusts for Burlington and St. Albans might be under-done
a bit. But note the 74 mph expected gusts in Rutland. 

UPDATE: 8:30 AM

I'm able to update this post, which I first wrote at 2 p.m. today.  In my travels, I'm waiting for a connection to Baltimore from JFK. 

Not much updating needs to be done to the previous discussion, below.  

The wind threat remains very, very real.  To the point where I see storm chasers appear to be on their way to Vermont to see the show Friday. 

Anytime storm chasers take an interest in your state, you know you have trouble.

One added piece of danger. It looks like some of the higher elevations could have two to six inches of wet snow tonight before the changeover to rain.

Some of that wet snow could still be clinging to trees when the howling winds arrive later Thursday night. That would only compound the inevitable power outage issues. 

The only other additions I'd make for now to what I wrote below is the powerful cold front that will sweep through Vermont will have its own batch of interesting weather. As if there wasn't enough of that already.

We already know temperatures will crash with the passage of the front, yielding to that vaunted flash freeze.  According to the National Weather Service, the front could be so dynamic that we could have thunder, torrential rain, heavy sleet and possibly a quick burst of snow toward the end.

Previous discussion follows, which is worth the read, as it's got some important info:

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Unfortunately, if current forecasts are true, the upcoming storm might be among the worst wind storms Vermont has seen in decades. 

According to forecasts issued last night and early this morning, the biggest worry spot is the Champlain Valley. 

Meteorologists have known for days that downslope winds on the western slopes of the Green Mountains would become ferocious on Friday morning. In favored spots right near the mountains, winds could gust to 70 or 80 mph or more.

That's bad, and would cause some damage, but it's happened before. This region is fairly sparsely populated, and the people who do live in this region have some experience with such powerful gusts. However, it's looking like the damaging winds might well  extend much further west into the Champlain Valley. 

Here's an excerpt from the forecast discussion from National Weather Service office in South Burlington, issued late Wednesday afternoon:

"Peak gusts comparable to a category 1 hurricane are forecast in the western slopes of the Green Mountains. We're increasingly concerned by the likelihood of populated areas well away from the mountains, including the populated Champlain Valley towns in Chittenden and Addison  counties, not accustomed to seeing winds of this magnitude."

This translates to winds gusting to more than 65 mph in these populated areas. It's not out of the question winds in the Route 7 corridor could reach 75 mph.  For comparison's sake the strongest wind gust ever measured in Burlington since at least 1900 was 72 mph. 

This could well be one of the worst wind storms in history, at least in the western half of Vermont. "Multiple long time forecasters have not seen winds at this pressure level at this magnitude in our region," the Wednesday evening forecast discussion stated, ominously."

The winds are forecast to ramp up quickly late Thursday night and early Friday and peak during the early to mid afternoon. 

According to the high wind warning that's been issued: "People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows."

What worries me the most is those many neighborhoods in the Champlain Valley that have lots and lots of trees. Some of those trees seem like they might crash onto or through some of those houses. This is dangerous!

I'd also expect some long lasting power outages in the worst hit areas.

Green Mountain Power announced Wednesday that they were able to keep a lot of the crews that came from out of state to deal with last weekend's massive snowy power outages here in Vermont to deal with this new storm. 

Despite the big crews ready to help with outages, GMP urged customers to be prepared for real trouble:

"With cold temperatures forecasted, customers should have a plan for where to go if they need to leave their home and how they would get there. With extreme high winds, there can also be hazards like flying debris that can make it unsafe for anyone outside, including crews." 

It's a tricky forecast, so it's still possible the wind could under-perform in western Vermont. But definitely don't count on that! The wind doesn't look like it will be as bad in eastern Vermont, but some tree damage and power outages seem likely even there.

The wind is obviously the biggest danger from this storm, but we continue to watch other issues:

 INITIAL ICE

Forecasts have trended a little colder with the onset of the storm. That means some places might receive a couple inches of snow, and some other areas will see some sleet and freezing rain. This will be a problem for anybody on the roads overnight Thursday. Rapid warming early Friday morning will erase this hazard.

FLOODING

This is still a real issue. The storm's powerful cold front will produce a period of heavy rain. Right ahead or along the cold front, a narrow band of torrential rain, similar to a summer squall line, seems possible.

Total rainfall looks like it will be in the one to two inch range, with higher amounts in some spots Combine that with rapidly melting snow, and you have a real problem.  A flood watch is up for much of Vermont, especially central sections of the state. 

River forecasts have gotten more detailed with updates. The Mad River at Moretown is expected to come close to moderate flood stage. Many if not most other rivers in Vermont will probably reach minor flood stage.

I'm especially worried about some of the smaller rivers in southern Vermont. The heaviest rain is expected to fall there, and the deepest snow from last weekend also accumulated there.

FLASH FREEZE 

The anticipated flash freeze is still on. With the cold front, temperatures will crash from the low 50s to the 20s in a matter of as little as two hours.

The freeze looks like it wants to come just a bit earlier than first forecast - probably late afternoon.

Roads will freeze instantaneously.  We also expect a brief period of freezing rain, sleet and snow as the temperatures plunge. 

BOTTOM LINE

If forecasts hold, this could be an historic storm for Vermont, comparable to the Great Appalachian Storm of 1950.  Hang onto your hats! 

My Nominee For City Most Screwed By Upcoming Storm Is Buffalo, New York

I nominate Buffalo, New York as the American city
most in trouble by the giant storm now building in the U.S.

 This wide ranging, developing storm that we've been talking about for a few days now will hit so many dozens of cities in the United States.  

Which city is most screwed with this?

We can nominate plenty.  Maybe Bismarck, North Dakota, where the noon temperature there was minus 19 and they're expecting wind chills of around 55 below.

Or Minneapolis? They're right on the edge of a blizzard warning, and they're an airline hub.

I think Chicago is worse. They're a United Airlines hub plus a bigger city.  They'll have minor thawing early Thursday, followed by blinding blowing and drifting snows and crashing temperatures. With winds as high as 50 mph.

You can even make a great case for nominating Burlington, Vermont. This city could have 60 mph gusts, if not right in town then nearby.  Flooding is a risk from heavy rain, and the flash freeze later Friday afternoon makes me shudder.

But in this storm, I would give the nod for worst weather to Buffalo, New York.  They have all kinds of problems with this one. First, it will rain there into early Friday morning. Then Buffalo gets its own flash freeze, and snow will blow in.

The flat Lake Erie will encourage the west to southwest winds even ore than rougher terrain. Winds will surge to over 60 mph. 

Speaking of surge, something called a seiche will hit Lake Erie. As the powerful cold front crosses the lake and sets up the strong west to southwest winds, Lake Erie will slosh toward and into Buffalo.

Essentially the wind will make Lake Erie tilt, with the lower side of the tilt back toward Toledo, Ohio and the higher water at and around Buffalo.

This seiche could make Lake Erie water rise near Buffalo by as much as eleven feet, causing plenty of shoreline flooding and battering waves.

This same wind set up means a round of intense lake effect snow squalls. This area has already dealt with snow squalls that dumped a few feet of snow in a few days. But those squalls at least were accompanied by reasonably winds and temperatures that weren't super cold.

This time, those screaming 65 mph winds, heavy snow and plunging temperatures will lead to dangerous blizzard conditions in those squalls. 

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has been calling this a once in a generation storm. No kidding!

So, yeah, Buffalo is screwed.

Wednesday Morning Storm Update: Giant Storm, Arctic Blast Still On Schedule

A very colorful National Weather Service home page map
from this morning means lots of weather hazards and that's
certainly the case now through Friday at least.

If you go to the National Weather Service homepage. www.weather.gov, and if you see the map of the United States is really colorful, that's bad news. It means there's a lot of weather hazards.  

This morning, the NWS home page map of the U.S. was lit up like a Christmas tree as a holiday giant storm and Arctic blast begins to make its moves on the nation. 

Most of the colors are different shades of blue, indicated various wind chill warnings and alerts. Other blues are winter storm watches. The hot pinks are winter storm warnings. Reds are blizzard warnings.

Here in Vermont, we have kind of an ugly brown, indicating a high wind watch. The browns indicating wind will expand as the storm draws nearer.  I've got more details and updates on what to expect in the Green Mountain State a little further down in this post. 

I've only seen picky little changes in the forecast for the nation as a whole, so this looks pretty inevitable.

It's hitting hardest on what will be two of the busiest travel days of the year. 

The Washington Post reports that there are 47,554 scheduled flights in the United States on Thursday (including two that my husband and I are taking, fingers crossed) and another 44,300 flights on Friday. 

Most airlines issued weather waivers to help travelers avoid fees and fare differences if they have to rebook a flight due to the storm.  I bet there will be a TON of waivers involved. Conservative estimates in the Washington Post suggest we'll see at least 5,000 flight cancelations or delays on Thursday.

This will extend to the East Coast by Friday.  Little to no snow is in the forecast along Interstate 95.  But high winds and heavy rain Friday in the entire region are sure to screw up at least some flights.

Meanwhile, an estimated 102 million people will drive at least 50 miles to their holiday destinations between Thursday and January 2.

It seems there are always storms to screw things up during the Christmas holiday, but this one is much worse than usual.

One of the problems is the storm's expected immense size. A 1,000 mile wide swath of the northern United States is expected to see wind gusts of at least 40 mph. Many areas will see gusts much stronger than that. 

A vast area from Kansas and Missouri up through the entire Great Lakes region is under winter storm watches, warnings or blizzard warnings. Most of the northern and central Rockies are also under winter storm warnings.

An even more immense area is under wind chill alerts or soon will be.  Draw a line from Spokane, Washington, to El Paso, Texas. Almost everyone east of that line will experience bone chilling to highly dangerous wind chills between now and Christmas Day. 

It's one of those holidays where everyone will have to take a deep breath (behind a scarf if necessary) be patient and be safe.  If you have misgivings about setting off, because it looks a little dangerous on the roads, listen to your gut. Better to postpone that holiday cheer than not live to enjoy it, right?

I'm sure we'll be hearing of some fatalities in the U.S. from this storm, through people getting caught outdoors in Arctic conditions, or being involved in a highway pileup, or a house fire, or something. It's all tragic, but if people take care, we can minimize the danger. 

Power outages will be pretty widespread from Minnesota to New England, and from Ontario and Quebec down to the southern United States. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

So far only a few more details and minor changes to the storm outlook here in the Green Mountain State.  

The National Weather Service in South Burlington
issued this wind forecast map this morning.
Areas in orange could easily see enough wind to
cause power outages Friday. Darker orange and 
red areas feature gusts to at least 60 mph. 

I guess we'll take things in order of when they will happen

MIXED PRECIP

As the storm's warm front comes at us Thursday night, mixed precipitation will break out, especially east of the Green Mountains. 

There probably will be some light accumulation of snow, sleet and ice in several areas, but a strong burst of warm air should send temperatures above freezing by early Friday morning. This won't be a huge deal, but will cause some slippery roads.

HIGH WINDS

The wind is forecast to ramp up pretty quickly, probably before dawn Friday morning and last for several hours. Strongest winds will be on the west slopes of the Green Mountains. I wouldn't be surprised to see reports of gusts to 70 or 80 mph in the most vulnerable spots, like Cambridge, Underhill, Huntington, Hanksville, Mendon, Shrewsbury and Wells.

According to the National Weather Service in South Burlington, often, when there's snow on the ground, a temperature inversion sets up in these situations.  The inversion can act like a lid, so when high speed air starts descending the west slopes of the Greens, it hits the top of that inversion and bounces off.  Which means the strongest winds don't make all the way down the slopes into the valleys.

That might try to happen this time, but the NWS has concluded this storm is so strong and intense, that even if an inversion sets up, the winds stand a good chance of overwhelming any inversions and spread into valleys.

Moreover, the strong winds might not stick close to the western slopes of the Green Mountains everywhere. In the northern Champlain Valley, the damaging winds could extend all the way to Route 7 and Interstate 89.  Might happen near Rutland, too. It's not definite, but certainly possible, that damaging winds gusts of up to 60 mph could reach population centers in and around Rutland, Burlington and St. Albans. 

Even people who don't get the downslope winds off the Green Mountains will see strong gusts. Power outages are possible everywhere in Vermont, as winds could reach at least 50 mph almost everywhere.

FLOODING

As the storm's powerful cold front approaches, a band of heavy rain will come just ahead of it. This will help squelch the winds to an extent, but cause a new problem: The risk of flooding.  Temperatures will rocket upwards into the low 50s. 

Most places will see a quick 1.5 inches or so of rain, and melting snow will add the equivalent of about another inch. We'll see rapid runoff, with small streams and brooks being a problem at first during the day. 

Then main stem rivers will rise.  That will be more dangerous than usual because the water levels in the bigger rivers would peak while temperatures are rapidly falling. (More on that in a sec). Most rivers in the state are at risk of minor flooding, you know, covering some of the roads and things like that. 

At this point, the rivers that show the most risk of causing problems are the Mad River and Otter Creek.  The Winooski River at Essex Junction/Williston could get interesting, too.

FLASH FREEZE

As the cold front blows through in the late afternoon and evening, temperatures will probably drop from the low teens to below freezing within a couple hours, and continue downward into the teens within a couple hours after that. 

Rain would turn to snow, but the snow won't last long or accumulate much.  But such a rapid freeze will ice up the roads pretty instantaneously. Even the main roads would have trouble, never mind the back roads. Travel trouble seems inevitable late Friday afternoon and evening across Vermont.

AFTER THAT

Winds will continue to howl all Friday night and into Saturday, but at least not as strong as they probably will have on Friday.  It might take awhile to clean up the expected power outages. The low temperatures and nasty wind chills Friday night through the weekend will probably add to the misery and make repairing power lines difficult. 

A PROGRAM NOTE

I will be traveling very early Thursday morning, so I will only be able to post what will probably be brief update very early, like 2:30 or 3 in the morning.  You'll find the update at www.matttsweatherrapport.blogspot.com.  Note the three "t's in matts in the URL. I'll also post the early update to my Twitter and Facebook accounts, so look there. 

I'll also try to update through the day if my travel schedule allows. 

 

 

Friday Storm Looks Increasingly Dangerous For Vermont - And Large Swaths Of Nation

If anything, the forecast map for Friday issued
early this morning, gives the expected storm
a more powerful look that previous forecasts.

 All eyes continue to be on that developing Arctic blast and giant storm that will affect most of the United States this week with often very dangerous weather. 

Vermont remains one of many states in the bullseye of this system. 

This will be a pretty memorable storm for much of the nation. This won't be the coldest blast of Arctic air ever. But we still expect some record lows. 

What makes this developing situation such a hazard is the combination of strong winds over a huge area, combined with snow to the west and heavy rain to the east. 

Strong to damaging winds are possible just about everywhere in the United States from the Mississippi River east, and in much of Ontario and Quebec.

As of this morning, some of the ingredients that will lead to this storm blowing up in the middle of the nation are already screwing around with things in Washington State and in British Columbia. 

Snow is causing some big flight delays in Vancouver.  Travel is also hampered by snow in and near Seattle. These problems will only spread as the week goes on.

Wind chill alerts for the upcoming Arctic blast now extend from Montana and Alabama, and those alerts will only expand over the next couple of days. Big swaths of the Midwest are under a winter storm watch, and a blizzard is likely in many of these areas by Thursday. 

National Weather Service meteorologists aren't mincing words with this storm:  In the Minneapolis NWS forecast discussion, they wrote: "This is still looking to develop as a high end, life-threatening event." 

The National Weather Service in Buffalo, New York is also warning of destructive winds, heavy rain and then a blinding lake effect blizzard Friday into the weekend. "This intense storm is forecast to be climatologically 'off the charts'........One could certainly describe this storm system as a once in a generation type of event."

The Chicago NWS office is warning of a blizzard, widespread power outages due to powerful winds, and lakeshore flooding. Ten to 14 food waves from Lake Michigan could slam the shoreline in northwestern Indiana.

So yeah, you get the idea. This storm will screw things up for lots of people. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Here in Vermont, the hazards include a little freezing rain, a LOT of wind, a flood risk and a flash freeze. 

WIND

Meteorologists at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, when forecasting, look at what are known as analogs. 

In other words, they look at what the forecast calls for, based on current information, and compare that to similar, real-world storms that occurred in the past.  

Roof and tree damage in Milton, Vermont, October, 2017
after a powerful windstorm. Some forecasts suggest 
the upcoming storm could be as destructive as
the one shown here. 

In their forecast discussion Monday evening, the winds with this expected storm remind National Weather Service meteorologists of either October 30, 2017 or December 10, 2010.

The October, 2017 wind storm was widespread across western Vermont, with damaging downslope winds on the western slopes of the Green Mountains extending all the way to Lake Champlain. 

That storm cut power to more than 150,000 people in Vermont, nearly a quarter of the state's population.  We saw quite a lot of power line, tree, roof and some structural damage in much of the state.

In that storm, winds gusted as high as 63 mph in Burlington and 78 mph in Wells. 

The December, 2010 storm wasn't as widespread but created some wild wind gusts on the western slopes of the Greens. Gusts exceeded 90 mph in some areas. To give you an idea of what December 1, 2010, click on this link for the scenes in Williston, Vermont during that storm. 

One slightly mitigating factor in the upcoming storm, according to the National Weather Service in South Burlington, is that an inversion layer just below summit level might deflect a bit of the wind. But the storm is forecast to be super strong, with near record low barometric pressure. So strong to damaging winds are almost inevitable.

Power outages are likely with this thing, and they might last awhile. We're still recovering from last weekend's storm.  In that case, Green Mountain Power was able to pull in crews from surrounding states to help restore power. Our snowstorm last weekend was fairly localized. It wasn't as if the entire Northeast was buried in snow.

It won't be so easy to get help restoring power from other states with this upcoming storm. They'll have their own problems to deal with. Damaging winds will hit from Minnesota to Maine and from Quebec to the Carolinas. 

FLOODING: 

This powerful storm will bring a slug of warm, wet air with it.  That'll get the snow melting pretty fast on Friday as temperatures rapidly rise to the low 50s. With such a dynamic storm, bursts of heavy rain are also inevitable. Current forecasts give us one to two inches of rain.

The following might change, but forecasts as of Tuesday put the heaviest rain in southern and southeastern Vermont, right where the deepest snow accumulated last weekend.  That could certainly spell flood trouble.

Already, forecasters are eyeing vulnerable waterways like the Mad River and Otter Creek for flooding.  Smaller streams are of course risky, too.  Forecasters will have more concise predictions for flooding as we get closer to the storm. 

FLASH FREEZE

At the onset of the storm, there might be a little freezing rain to slicken the roads for a short time, especially east of the Green Mountains, but that piece won't be a main player in this big show. 

Instead, the rain and warmth will end super abruptly sometimes later Friday, Friday evening or Friday night. A powerful cold front with this big storm will roar through. At this point, forecasts call for temperatures to fall from the low 50s to the mid and upper teens within something like four hours.

That sets up a flash freeze. All the water on the roads and sidewalks and driveways freezes in an instant. You can see how that would mess up travel. We'd also get a big blast of wind after the front from the southwest.

This wind for the most part probably won't be as strong as in the front side of the storm. But it could still be gusty enough to knock down more trees and power lines. 

Because the Arctic air behind the storm is not coming at us directly, it won't be nearly as cold in Vermont as it will be points west.  The bitter air will plunge southward into the Midwest and Gulf Coast states, then swing northeastward toward us. 

That'll give the air a chance to modify, and it will only get sort of cold up here in Vermont (Highs in the low to mid 20s, lows near 10 Saturday through Monday).  But if there's widespread power outages because of this storm, that will cause a lot of misery, and frozen pipes.

As always, changes in the forecast between now and Friday are inevitable. This does feel like kind of a gloom and doom post. As we draw nearer to the storm, things will either look as bad as they do now, or maybe less bad, who knows?

I'm going to be out of Vermont when the storm hits. Oddly, I'm a little sad I'm going to miss the excitement. 

In any event, I'll provide updates as I'm able while I'm traveling later this week. 

Vermont Snowstorm And Pretty Aftermath, Videos Included

Morning sun shines on snow-laden trees Sunday in St. Albans,
Vermont after a beautiful storm the day before. 

 The snowstorm that hit Vermont a few days ago was much more mellow in northwestern Vermont than in the most of the rest of the state. 

We had somewhat less snow. We had some power outages, but they were fewer and further between than elsewhere. And the outages were quickly repaired up in my neck of the woods.

Of course I took plenty of photos and created videos of the storm and aftermath. 

In Video #1, scroll down in this post to view it,  you can see the storm got off to a fairly good start, but sputtered during the day Friday as temperatures rose above freezing and the wet snow turned to glorified rain. Some of the snow melted.

But, just as forecasters told us, the snow returned in earnest overnight, and we woke up to a winter wonderland.  It was still overcast, with kind of a blue/gray light all day, but it was gorgeous.

Just before sunset at St. Albans Bay Vermont on Sunday,
the day after a picturesque snowstorm hit the area.

The day after, Sunday, brings us to the aftermath. As you can see in Video #2, the sun came out, and it was glorious. The sun unburdened the trees of some of the weight of the snow.  People enjoyed going for snowy walks in the park, or sliding down Hardack Hill in St. Albans.

The view from St. Albans hill showed a big, gloriously clean and white landscape. The day was topped off by a beautiful winter sunset at St. Albans Bay. 

I'm generally not a big fan of winter. But weekends like the one we just had in northwestern Vermont really does make one really appreciate the season. 

So, first here's the video of the actual snowfall this past Friday and Saturday around my house in St. Albans, Vermont. Click on this link if you don't see the image of the YouTube video just below.  

Next up, the even prettier storm aftermath around St. Albans, Vermont. Click on this link if you don't see the image, otherwise click on that image

If You Hate Arctic Weather Some (Uncertain) Light At The End Of The Tunnel

Maybe take it with a bit of  grain of salt, but after the expected
Christmas cold snap this year, the period of time around
New Year could be on the warm side for all of the Lower 48.

 Weather news is filled with horror and dread about the intense Arctic cold snap poised to envelop the eastern two thirds of the nation between now and Christmas.  

And it is dreadful. As noted this morning, wind chills of 50 below will blast the northern Plains, and temperatures will drop well below freezing all the way down to the Gulf Coast. And a big Midwestern blizzard seems to be prepared to throw itself into the mix.   

Weather pundits are calling this potentially the worst December cold snap since an epic one at Christmastime, 1989. 

If you look at forecasts beyond Christmas, though, signs point more and more to the idea that this frigid blast will be mercifully brief.

Then today's daily National Weather Service 8 to 14 day outlook came out. It covers the dates from December 27 through January 2. It shows the entire Lower 48 bathed in warmer than normal temperatures. 

It's quite rare to see all of the Lower 48 in either above or below normal temperatures. Usually, part of the nation is chilly, while other parts are toasty. 

Of course, there's the caveat that these long range forecasts are quite iffy, so there's definitely no guarantee that the days around the New Year holiday will be balmy. Some parts of the United States might end up being on the cool side.  But the forecast is a good sign that the Christmas Arctic blast is not necessarily a sign that the entire winter will be bitter for the U.S. 

Which is good for a lot of reasons. Especially since heating oil and natural gas are expensive and supplies are tight. 

There's another down side to this potentially warm period around the New Year. This same long range forecast issued Monday suggests above normal precipitation for all of the Lower 48 except eastern New England and Texas. 

That suggests a stormy pattern, which would bring its own share of trouble. 

Nationwide Holiday Travel To Get Nightmarish By End Of Week

A forecast national weather map for this Friday morning
Dec. 23. It's not the look you want, especially if you're 
traveling. It shows a massive storm centered in
the Great Lakes screwing this up in the eastern
half of the U.S. with an Arctic outbreak
hot on the storm's heels. 

An ill-timed Arctic blast and major storm that we've been watching take shape will make for a mess for those of you trying to travel toward Thursday, Friday and Christmas Eve. 

While the particulars in some places are not cast in stone, it does pretty sure that a subzero and subfreezing blast of Arctic air will race north to south across the Canadian border in Montana and North Dakota and plunge south all the way through Texas and the Gulf Coast states.  

Parts of North Dakota and Montana expect actual "high" temperatures to only reach the teens below zero Tuesday through Friday.  Wind chills during this period are forecast to be in the 50s below zero.

The brunt of the frigid air is forecast to blast almost due south, toward Texas and the Gulf Coast. Much of Texas will endure up to three days below freezing, which would make this cold snap the worst in Texas since February, 2021.

You might remember that February, 2021 freeze the crippled the Texas power grid, causing dozens of deaths and widespread damage and suffering. (If you don't remember, it's the cold snap during which Ted Cruz fled to Cancun).

I'm not super confident about the Texas power grid even now, so I hope they don't have another crisis for the holiday.

The Arctic blast isn't even the worst of the trouble coming to U.S. travel this holiday. 

The forecasts have been surprisingly consistent in stirring up a rapidly intensifying, huge storm on Thursday smack dab in the middle of the nation.  This will cause a blizzard in the Midwest, possibly affecting major hubs like Chicago and St. Louis.  The National Weather Service office in Chicago is already telling people to make alternative travel plans Thursday and Friday. 

In other words, you probably won't be flying in or out of Chicago at the end of the week.

In the eastern third of the United States, the problem will be bouts of heavy rain and especially strong winds, quite possibly damaging. This will be followed by a flash freeze as Arctic air rushes in Friday. 

Outside of New England and upstate New York, there won't be much snow or ice to deal with, but still, it will be a destructive storm.  

Next up, Vermont is still not out of the woods with this upcoming storm

VERMONT EFFECTS

The storm is still a little over three days away from the Green Mountain State, but so far, the forecasts have been remarkably consistent with this big upcoming storm. It probably will affect your travel and holiday plans here, too.

The bottom line is, this isn't Green Mountain Power's best month. They're still trying to restore power to some residents still in the dark from Friday and Saturday's storm. As of early this morning, about 8,900 homes were without power, according to VTOutages.org.

The main threat from the end of the week storm is strong to damaging winds. It's too soon to put out any official alerts or warnings about the wind as yet. But the National Weather Service in South Burlington said wind advisories or high wind warnings are almost inevitable for at least parts of the state. 

This means more power outages are possible. Right in time for Christmas!  The first part of the storm would feature strong east to southeast winds Thursday night and Friday.  There could be some especially strong and destructive downslope winds on the west slopes of the Green Mountains. We don't know for sure whether that will happen. We'll need to get closer to the storm's arrival to make that determination.

As the storm's powerful cold front blast through, probably on Friday, a big surge of west winds could cause more problems. 

Ahead of that front, heavy rain, warm temperatures and melting snow could produce flooding. Any damage or even ruin the prospect of a white Christmas. A little mixed precipitation possible at the start of the storm would only add to the fun. 

All of this is still subject to some change. It probably won't work out exactly as outlined above. But, if you have travel plans this week - especially Thursday and Friday - it could get dicey.

Personally, I'm flying out of Vermont for some time in Delaware early on Thursday.  At least that's the plan. I'm hoping to beat the storm, as the worst of it won't arrive on the East Coast until later Thursday night and Friday. Fingers crossed!