Insane, Climate-Driven April Heat Continues In New England

Large brush fire burning near Exeter, Rhode Island
Friday amid unprecedented, record April heat. 

UPDATE: 6 pm SATURDAY

The heat continued to over-perform, at least in some parts of Vermont. 

It got up to at least 85 degrees so far today in Burlington, That's good enough for a record high for the date. The old record was 82 in 2003.

Today would have been the earliest in the season that it's been 85 degrees in Burlington, if not for the 88 degree reading we had on Thursday. 

It looks like Montpelier tied its record high for today's date at 78 degrees.

These aren't final figures. I'll have updates tomorrow. 

The area experiencing record warmth is shrinking from the east, south and west. Northwestern Vermont will be the last place to experience a cool down.  It'll probably get into the upper 70s there tomorrow, as opposed to the 60s to low 70s elsewhere in Vermont. 

Vermont just missed out on another interesting weather pattern today, as if there hasn't been enough lately. An upper level low in southern Pennsylvania created slow moving thunderstorms in Connecticut, western Massachusetts, southern New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

Despite recent dry conditions, the storms were moving so slowly that long lasting torrential rain fell in a few spots, raising local flash flood concerns not far from where brush fires were burning. 

The storms didn't quite make it to southern Vermont so far, but one got as far north as around Saratoga, New York. 

Much cooler weather is likely next week. Which is to be expected, as it can't really get any hotter. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Some of the temperatures I saw from southern New England Friday just blew my mind. 

It's barely the middle of April, and some reading in Connecticut and Massachusetts reached the mid-90s. I'm not kidding.  There are temperatures pretty much never thought possible this early in the season. 

Windsor Locks, Connecticut got up to 96 degrees, for instance.  As of 3 p.m. Friday, Windsor Locks was the hottest place in the United States. Hotter than Arizona, Texas and Floria and everywhere else. The old record high in Windsor Locks for the date was 82 degrees. 

Temperatures in the 90s reached as far north as New Hampshire. Manchester had a record high of 91 and Concord reached 90. Remember, this is the first half of April, not the Fourth of July weekend. In southern Vermont, Springfield topped out at 88 degrees.

A weak cold front slightly tempered the heat in northern Vermont Friday, but we still managed to set some records even behind the cold front. Both Montpelier and Morrisville achieved a record high of 81 degrees on Friday. St. Johnsbury had a record high of 80.

Burlington was uncharacteristically the icebox of Vermont on Friday, "only" reaching 77 degrees. That's still a full 22 degrees above normal for the date, so it was plenty unusual. 

Amid this strange, dry heat, brush fires broke out everywhere, but mostly in New Jersey southern New York and southern New England. Firefighters during the afternoon were fighting large blazes near Exeter, Rhode Island and Hopkinton, Massachusetts. 

Large brush fires in Rockland County, New York caused evacuations, minor damage to homes and destroyed sheds. 

Somewhat smaller brush fires were reported in the Vermont communities of North Clarendon, Rutland, Rupert and Colchester in recent days. 

Though no fires were nearby, the air at last evening's hazy sunset in St. Albans contained just a whiff of a smoke aroma. 

HEAT FADING, BUT STILL STRONG

The record heat is eroding from both the east and west in New England, but in some spots, the record high temperatures won't fully get flushed out until Sunday evening. 

A weak storm off the Mid-Atlantic coast is creating east winds in much of New England, which is bringing cool maritime air in off the chilly waters of the North Atlantic.  

Boston was 88 on Thursday and hit 83 Friday before the sea breeze kicked in.  Today, Boston is forecast to only hit 64 degrees.

Most of southern New England away from the coast should hit the low 70s today. Still warm for the season, but no longer shockingly hot.    

Vermont stays warm today, especially west of the Green Mountains and more record highs might fall.  Highs today will range from the low 70s in eastern Vermont to possibly low 80s west. The record high in Burlington today is 82 degrees, and that one is threatened. 

It'll be cooler still on Sunday but still way warm for the season. Vermont will feature 60s north and 70s west. 

Cold fronts are due Monday and Tuesday, and temperatures will actually be a bit below normal Tuesday and Wednesday. At midweek, highs might not get out of the 40s, before somewhat milder air returns late in the week.

CLIMATE INFLUENCE 

Record heat, and record cold should be expected from time to time. Weather is variable, after all. There's always been unseasonably hot days and out of character frigid days. 

A big dome of warm high pressure sat over the eastern United States this week. That is something that happens from time to time in the spring, with or without climate change. This warm high pressure would have caused near record high temperatures even without the influence of man-made heating.   

But a warmer world helped turn what would have been a lovely warm spring interlude into something insane. Many of the records set in the Northeast, including in Vermont, were easily the hottest for so early in the season.

As I mentioned yesterday, this wasn't a one-off.  Hottest for so early in the season heat has hit our region a lot in recent decades, including in March, 2012, February, 2017 and May, 2020. Just last November, it was 76 degrees in Burlington, Vermont, the hottest for the month of November and hottest for so late in the season. 

We might not have any more extreme heat this spring. Who knows, right? But with climate change, it's inevitable that sooner or later, we will again be marveling, - and a little frightened by - another unprecedented, out of season heat wave. 

Summer In A Vermont April: Record Heat Astounds Again

Record heat in Vermont is really pushing along the 
garden plants.  This is a patch of daffodils in
my St. Albans, Vermont yard at around noon Thursday....

 As enthusiastic as I am about gardening, I don't always love going out into the perennial and raised beds during a Vermont early to mid April.  

It's often too cold, too muddy, too windy, too rainy or even too snowy. 

So, I was thrown for a real loop Thursday when I was reluctant to hit the gardens because it was too......hot??

Sure was! In the age of climate change, another astounding round of record highs visited Vermont on Thursday. 

The high temperature in Burlington Thursday was 88 degrees. That broke the record high for the date of 84 degrees set in 1945. It was also the hottest for so early in the season.  

Plenty of other record highs were set, as you can imagine. Montpelier reached 83 degrees, besting the old record of 79.  Across the pond in Plattsburgh, they actually almost made it to 90 degrees - they topped out at 89.

Some spots in New England did make it to 90, which is incredibly early. Hartford, Connecticut reached 91 degrees. Norwood, Massachusetts roasted at 92 degrees. New York City also reached 90 degrees. 

Back in Burlington, before Thursday's heat, the earliest it had been this warm or warmer was on April 17, 2002, when it got up to 90.

Which leads us into a trend to talk about. 

NEW HOT TIMES IN SPRING

Late winter and early to mid spring in particular has been a real weird time for premature heat waves in Vermont for the past three or four decades.

Thirty-five years or so seems like a long time. But those three plus decades have really piled on the heat, and those decades heralded the beginning of highly noticeable climate change. 

Oh sure, there's been strange heat waves generations ago.  Rarely, though. On March 29, 1946 it got up to 84 degrees in Burlington, Vermont for a big hottest on record moment for March.

On April 18 and 19, 1976, it got up to 91 degrees in Burlington, besting the old high temperature record for April which was 86 degrees.  

......and this is the same patch of daffodils as the
first photo in this post, but this one was taken at
around 7 a.m. this Friday morning. 

In more recent years, April has featured some real humdingers heat waves that put that ancient, defunct 86 degree record to shame. 

 I thought we'd never have an earlier 90 degree temperature in the season than those days in 1976 until April 17, 2002 came along to bring us to 90 degrees.

It seems 1990 or so was the beginning of these hot spring spells. That year, the third and fourth 90 degree readings ever in April hit Burlington on April 27 and 28.

That same year - 1990 - extreme heat for the season hit in mid-March. On March 15, 1990 it got up to 72 degrees, becoming what was then the earliest 70 degree temperature on record. On March 16, 1990, it got wilder, reaching a summery 78 degrees.

Echoing my thinking after the April, 1976 hot spell, I'd thought it couldn't possibly get to 70 degrees any earlier than March 15. 

Then, on March 9, 2016, it got up to 70 degrees in Burlington.  Then came a bigger surprise: On February 27, 2017, which should have been a perfectly wintry day, Burlington reached 72 degrees. I'm thinking it can't get to 70 any earlier than that, but as you can tell, I keep being proven wrong.

And we can't let this subject go without bringing up March, 2012.  These daily high temperatures should represent a week in June, but instead were life in Burlington, Vermont on March 17-23, 2012:  61, 76, 79, 80, 81, 81,66.

Not surprisingly, March, 2012 was by far the hottest on record. 

Even recent Mays had some incredible hot records. For decades, the hottest May day on record in Burlington stood at 93 degrees. Then, on May 27, 2020, it popped up to 95 degrees. 

Given this trend toward more and more spring heat waves, expect strange hot days to continue popping up with increasing frequency in the coming years.  

THE FORECAST

The extreme April heat, at least in northern and central Vermont, but it will stay very much on the warm side through Sunday.  

A weak cold front will sink southward through Vermont today. You won't notice it except for a wind shift to the north and cooler temperatures.

By cooler, I mean low to mid 70s, which is still almost 20 degrees warmer than average for this time of year. 

The cold front won't reach southern Vermont today in time to squelch the heat. Some low elevations in Bennington and Windham counties could make it into the mid-80s. A few spots in southern New England will probably touch 90 degrees again today.

For instance, they're going with a forecasted high of 92 today in Hartford, Connecticut.

Today's weak cold front will set us up with a bit of an easterly air flow over the weekend. That will make places east of the Green Mountains a little cooler yet. But 60s is still warm for this time of year.

West of the Greens, highs over the weekend will be in the balmy 70s.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a spot 80 degrees in one or two places.

All weird weather must come to an end, and that will happen Sunday night and Monday. We'll have a slug of much needed rain. Then, Tuesday and Wednesday will actually be a little cooler than average, with highs within a few degrees either side of 50,

Will Today's Summer Heat Bring Record Highs To Vermont?

What will today in Vermont have in common with what
was going on in this photo taken in July, 2020? 
Answer: Both days will end up featuring highs in the
low 80s. Record highs could be broken today 

 All indications are it's going to actually be a hot afternoon in Vermont today. 

There's a decent chance some places will be warmer than the normal high temperatures in July. 

I saw at least one forecast that indicates Burlington, Vermont 's high temperature today would reach 85 degrees. If that happens, it will break the record high for the date of 84 AND become the hottest day for so early in the season. 

This comes just several months after a moment in November when it reached 76 degrees, which was the hottest for so late in the season. 

Today's record high of 79 in Montpelier looks to be in serious jeopardy, too.

Lots of factors are coming together to create such warmth. Skies are clear, and there's no sign that any real clouds will move in today. So we have full, strong April sun baking the landscape. The air is dry, which heats up faster than air that is humid. 

Plus, today's air originated in the Desert Southwest, so it was warm to begin with. 

Winds won't be too, too strong today. But with dry conditions, hot air and a breeze, fire danger is still high, so be careful with flames. Don't do your brush pile today! Or this week for that matter.

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington is alerting people not to rush things. It might seem almost tempting to take a dip in the lake with temperatures in the 80s, the water temperature is still too cold. 

You could really get in trouble fast if you go in. Give it a couple months, then plunge in. 

Though temperatures will remain above normal tomorrow and Saturday, it won't be nearly as hot as it will be today, Much cooler, showery weather arrives Sunday night and Monday. So it ain't summer yet. 

Two Weird Disasters: 20 Inches Rain In Fort Lauderdale; Western Style Forest Fire In New Jersey

Almost two feet of rain in half a day around Fort Lauderdale,
Florida Wednesday caused serious flooding, as you'd imagine.

 I watched two unrelated, very different, localized but wildly extreme weather disasters unfold yesterday in the United States.  

One was just insane rains right around Fort Lauderdale, Florida, and the other was a massive forest fire in New Jersey.  Let's do the flood first, then the fire. 

FORT LAUDERDALE

Rainfall was insane, to say the least. The Fort Lauderdale airport received a whopping 22.5 inches of rain in just seven hours. 

That's about a third of a normal year's rainfall in the city. Normal rainfall for the entire month of April there is about three inches.  It's possible Fort Lauderdale received more rain in half a day than the previous record for wettest entire month. 

That will have to be looked into to confirm. 

Not surprisingly, the Fort Lauderdale area was under a flash flood emergency.  Everything was flooded, including parts of the tarmac and the roads leading to the Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport.

The airport shut down and probably won't reopen until at least noon today.  Broward County schools are also closed today.  Most streets were flooded yesterday, and it will take time for the water to drain. 

While all of South Florida had rain and thunderstorms on Wednesday, intense storms stalled around Fort Lauderdale. You can see in this radar loop on a Twitter post from @weathertrackus how persistent the storms were in just one area. 

The storm was highly localized. Miami, just 30 miles away from Fort Lauderdale,  only received 2.15 inches of rain, though it was that city's third day in a row with more than two inches of rain, with a three-day total of 7.38 inches. 

As the Washington Post explained, a warm front stalled near Fort Lauderdale, causing moisture to sweep in from the Atlantic and converge over  the region. The air was as saturated as it can get. The converging winds and a general atmosphere that supported updrafts for thunderstorms resulted in the torrential rains.

Had the warm front been moving, the heavy rain would not have lasted that long in any particular spot. But since it stalled, the rain unleashed its fury on Fort Lauderdale.

Heavy rain is possible in South Florida today, but less likely than it was yesterday. 

NEW JERSEY FIRE

Extreme wildfire in New Jersey Monday and Tuesday. 

The entire Northeast has been dealing with brush fires lately due to a spell of dry, warm weather. New Jersey, especially around the Pine Barrens, is especially prone to the fires.

But a blaze near Manchester Center and Lakehurst, New Jersey this week has been off the charts. 

The fire tore through the crowns of trees in forests, something you almost never see in the East. It looked like one of those gigantic wildfires in California in recent years. 

According to CBS News:

"New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection's John Cecil says this fire is among the most intense he's ever seen. 'This fire exhibited extreme fire behavior,' Cecil said. We saw a wall of fire, 200-foot flames, raining fire embers. I don't mean to be dramatic but this was a severe situation."

Hundreds of people were hastily evacuated as the fire spread. 

The great news is firefighters prevented the huge blaze from torching anybody's house and no serious injuries have so far been reported. 

At last report, the blaze consumed about 4,000 acres and was 75 percent contained. 

Near record warmth, dry air and stiff breezes continues the fire risk in New Jersey and surrounding states today. 

 

Climate Change Is Causing More MLB Home Runs

New York Yankee Aaron Judge hits his record breaking
62nd home run of the season last October. Climate
change, believe it or  not, is partly responsible for 
an increase in MLB home runs. 

 Back in 2019, Washington Nationals play-by-ply announcer F.P. .Santangelo faced ridicule when he said he thought global warming was at least partly responsible for an increase in the number of home runs.

Santangelo is now getting the last laugh.  Turns out he was right. 

As NBC News reports: 

"In a peer-reviewed paper publishes in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Dartmouth College researchers said they can connect at least 500 additional home runs from 2010 to 2019 to Earth's human-made warning."

Warmer air is less dense that a cooler atmosphere. Less dense air means a batted ball will carry further. 

NBC continues:

"From 1998, the first season of the 30-team MLB through last year - and not including Covid-shortened 2020 _- the number of home runs has varied annually from 4,186 in 2014 to 6,776 in 2019.

If current climate trends continue, researchers said, there will be 192 additional long balls per year by 2050 and 467 more per season by 2100, researchers said."

Climate change is not the main reason why homers have increase. The Earth's warming is probably only responsible for 500 extra home runs - or about 50 per year - over the past ten year.

A bigger reason for all these extra home runs have nothing to do with climate or weather. 

Analytics operations have strongly encouraged batters to swing for the fences as the best way to score, especially compared to hitting singles or stealing base. 

Still, prior to 1993, the average MLB team hit more than one home run per game, says NBC News. Starting in 1994, all but four seasons have featured an average of more than one per season. 

So far this year, as of a few days ago, there's been 1.19 home runs per game on average for teams.  But remember, the season is young, and it's colder in the spring than it is during the bulk of baseball season over the summer. 

A Big Burst Of Spring, With Hints Of Summer In Vermont And Elsewhere

Daffodils on the cusp of blooming in St. Albans,
Vermont on Tuesday.  Warm weather the rest of this
week should coax the flowers out pretty quickly. 

Spring is in the air this week for sure, and hints of summer, too. 

That's true here in Vermont, and even more so in some other parts of the U.S. of A. 

Burlington reached 70 degrees on Tuesday, the first 70 degree reading of 2023. There's more coming.  Soon. 

It'll be a little cooler today, thanks to a weak, pesky "back door" cold front.  This type of front is called back door because they come in from the northeast, instead of the west or northwest like most cold fronts do.

Back door cold fronts are most common in the spring, so I'm not surprised by this one. Or the next one coming Thursday night or early Friday. 

Before we get to that second cold front, a squirt of really warm air comes blowing in on southwest winds on Thursday. The warmer valleys could even get to or even pass 80 degrees.

That threatens some record highs.  Montpelier's record high tomorrow is 79 degrees, so that's perhaps in jeopardy.  Burlington's record high on Thursday is 84 degrees.  It's a leap to think we'll get that warm tomorrow, but I suppose there's a slight chance. You never know! 

By the way, highs in the low 80s are pretty normal for July, so a real taste of summer is coming. 

The next vaguely annoying but dry back door cold front will keep temperatures lower Friday.  I'm not sure by how much, but current guesses are near 60 north to low 70s south. So not bad!

Another squirt of warm air Saturday will boost us back into the 70s .

This will green up your lawn and garden a bit, and get trees budding

All warm spells must end, and so will this one. With fire danger remaining high with this warm spell, we'll need the rain anyway.  A stronger cold front, this one coming from the correct direction, west to east, will dump some rain on us Sunday night.  

The first half of next week looks cool and showery. It's only April. We will just go back to reality, that's all

ELSEWHERE

Summer-like weather put on a show in the central and northern Plains yesterday, and a few places in the Desert Southwest. 

Phoenix, Arizona hit a record high of 99 on Tuesday. Denver also hit a record with 85. 

The heat was impressive for this time of year. It got as high as 94 degrees in southwestern South Dakota and 90 degrees in southwestern North Dakota.

North Dakota also proved how snow cover can really keep things refrigerated. In parts of that state where all the snow had melted, temperatures went into the 70s and 80s. In the northeastern part of North Dakota, there's still deep snow on the ground. Largely as a result, Grand Forks missed out on the warm spell, only making it to 43 degrees on Tuesday. 

The snow-free and snow covered areas face two very different risks with this warm spell.

Red flag warnings for a high risk of fires cover a huge zone from New Mexico, eastern Colorado, the central Plains and on into the southern Great Lakes. Southern New England is also covered by a red flag warning.

Meanwhile, melting snow in the central and northern Rockies, and in areas of North Dakota, northern Minnesota and Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan means they are on guard for flooding. 

Springtime brings just about everything, doesn't it?

Rare "Red Flag" Fire Warning In Parts Of Vermont Today

UPDATE: 4 p.m.

A firefighter battles a forest fire near Bristol, Vermont
during a dry April several years ago. A Red Flag 
Warning is in effect in parts of Vermont for
high fire danger today. 

So far, conditions have pretty much played as expected in Vermont. 

We have a high overcast, which I think has helped keep winds a little lighter than first anticipated. 

There's still more than enough wind to fan any flames that get going, but at least it's not cranking at 30 to 40 mph so far, which would be even worse. 

But the air is still really dry, and the danger of brush fires will continue into the evening. 

The Red Flag Warning for lowlands in western Vermont and the lower Connecticut Valley is still in effect.

So far, as of around 4 p.m. , I haven't heard of any bigger blazes, which is good,. 

Far northern Vermont has thicker clouds, and radar is making out look like there's some light showers. But the air is so dry that anything coming out of those clouds evaporates on the way down. 

Looking at some of the darker clouds near St. Albans, you can actually see a little rain start to come out of the clouds, but disappears a short distance below cloud level.

'

Continued southwest winds are keeping the air dry, so don't count on any rain. 

It still looks like fire danger will continue into the weekend.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
 

A Red Flag warning for fire risk is up today for the Champlain and lower Connecticut River valleys of Vermont and the lowlands of southwestern Vermont today. 

Such a warning means brush, wild and forest fires can easily start and spread rapidly out of control.  A Red Flag warning is fairly rare in Vermont, but this is the time of year you're most likely to see one. 

A combination of low humidity, all that dead, dry vegetation from last year, strong winds and kind of warm temperatures are prompting the fire warning. 

Today is a great day to not have any open flames outdoors. 

Those of you who had plans to torch your brush and branch pile today can fahgettaboudit.  First of all, you need a burn permit to do such a thing.  I doubt any towns in the red flag warning zone are issuing any today. 

By the way, if you're across the pond in New York, there's a burn ban there until May 14. A Red Flag warning is also in effect in much of eastern New York today, and pretty much all of southern New England. 

Also, don't flick cigarette butts out your car window, as you'll start a grass fire on the side of the road which will inevitably spread into the woods. 

Don't park your car on dry grass or weeds, either. Heat from the bottom of the car can start a fire. 

You might not think this brush and grass and forest fires are a big deal, but think again. They can cause some real property damage. 

Brush fires in Massachusetts last weekend spread to at least two homes, destroying them. Three weeks ago, an illegal burn pile became a brush fire that destroyed one home, damaged two others, and injured firefighters in New Jersey near the New York border. 

Central Vermont and the Northeast Kingdom are not covered by the Red Flag warning. In mid and high elevations, there's still snow, so there won't be much chance for a fire to get going. But in the valleys in these areas, ,enough snow is gone so that you can still get brush, grass and low elevation forest forest.

The most likely time for fire starts in Vermont today would be between about noon and 6 p.m. That's when humidity will be lowest, probably around 25 percent. It's also when winds will be strongest. They'll be cranking at 10 to 20 mph, with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range. 

If you look at the sky and the weather radar early this morning, you'd think there's really not danger. A few dark clouds hung over St; Albans, for example. And radar seemed to indicate light showers zipping through the region. 

But looks are deceiving.  The air is quite dry, and any raindrops trying to fall out of the sky will evaporate before hitting the ground. 

Even if a couple rain drops do land this morning, low humidity and strong winds will dry those away quickly. 

We'll have to watch out for fires through the rest of the week and into the weekend, too.

Tomorrow won't be as windy, but dry northwest breezes will keep the humidity low, and the wind will one gusty enough to spread fires. 

Somewhat higher humidity Thursday might help a little, but not solve the problem. Friday and possibly Saturday look quite dry, too.

There is a decent possibility of a fairly soaking rain Sunday night, which would help. 

If you're going to get a brush or forest fire in Vermont, April is the most likely month. The snow is gone, at least in most places. It hasn't really started greening up yet. Forests are still leafless, so strong April sun can get down to the ground and dry things out quickly. 

As I mentioned in a previous post, super dry high pressure systems from southern Canada often slide through New England this time of year, raising the risk of fires. 

This fire risk doesn't mean we're entering another drought. Beneath the dry vegetation, the ground is still nice and wet from a relatively soggy winter. 

If we keep seeing dry weather week after week, then we need to start worrying about drought. But we're not anywhere close to that yet.