"Bowling Balls" Of Chilly Air Will Keep Interrupting Vermont Spring

Skies looked rather volatile last evening in St. Albans,
Vermont as a burst of cold air from Canada stirred
up some showers, clouds and downdrafts.

 It got awfully gusty at times and temperatures took abrupt tumbles Saturday afternoon as the first in a series of what I call "bowling" balls of chilly air invade our Vermont spring. 

While the northern hemisphere is warming up as the sun angle rises, it takes time to scour the pools of biting, winter cold air out of the Arctic.

These pools of frigid air tend to wander around up there as pieces of them get dislodged, inching the north toward spring. 

That cold pool for now is near Hudson Bay, Canada, which means it's in fairly close proximity to us her in Vermont.

Lucky us! For now, the pieces of nippy air that are breaking off from that frigid swirl of air in Canada are landing on, or at last near our doorstep. I refer to those pieces breaking off as bowling balls because they're compact, roll down from the north quickly, then move back off to our north and east just as fast. 

They're sort of drive-by cold snaps, if you will. 

A few days ago, it looked like these quick cold blasts would largely miss us here in the Green Mountain State. That forecast has obviously changed for the worse, at least if you like spring. 

We do see these pretty frequently in the spring here in Vermont. They're disheartening, but quick hitting, and spring resumes soon enough. Here's how our bowling match will play out this week. 

BOWLING BALL #1

The first one, the weakest of three that we'll deal with this week, came in Saturday afternoon.

The cold front had a fair amount of oomph to it, but the air was really dry.  The spring sunshine helped created updrafts that ran into the very cold air aloft.  This built up towering showers clouds. But that dry air down in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere evaporated some of the precipitation coming down. 

The showers themselves had downdrafts to them. The evaporating rain and snow cooled the air further. The downdrafts and cold, dense air created by the evaporation rushed downward, causing those strong wind gusts at times Saturday afternoon. 

I'm sure a few places gusted to over 40 mph, perhaps 50 mph. I noticed the National Weather Service in South Burlington hoisted a few special weather statements, warning of gusts that high. 

It was cold enough for snow to fall in the upper elevations. Some places had graupel which is sort of a snow/small hail hybrid.  Our first bowling ball also created some dramatic late afternoon and evening skies over the region. Dark clouds, shafts of bright sun, gushes of rain and snow visible here and there, and some wild rainbows.

Today is cooler, with clouds mixed with some sun and breezes behind yesterday's "bowling ball.

The second one comes through this evening and overnight.

BOWLING BALL #2

Once again the air is dry but the cold front with this is strong. That should set off some gusty winds, scattered showers, and eventually, snow showers overnight. Temperatures will take quite a tumble, and we'll see the coldest air since late March by dawn. 

This by no means will be record cold, but it will be shock to the system. It'll be down in the 20s for pretty much all of us and northwest winds will make it feel colder.

If you have magnolias blooming, there's a good chance they'll become brown wreckage after this unfortunately. But the vast majority of garden plants current growing should survive just fine. 

Monday will be sunny, which will deceive you into thinking it's nice out. It will be cold for the season with highs only in the 40s.  The sun, gusty northwest winds and very dry air could create something of a fire danger.  Tis the season for that, as I explained in a post last week. 

Monday night will be cold, too, though it will warm up west as the cold bowling ball departs.  Tuesday will bounce back nicely to near 60 degrees.

BOWLING BALL #3

This has the potential to be the strongest and perhaps the most disruptive of the three, depending on which computer forecasting model you want to believe. 

The cold front and embedded low pressure will come in from the west and north, so rain will break out Tuesday night and Wednesday. So far so good. 

Then, the cold air rushes in, changing rain to snow, yes snow, Wednesday afternoon or evening. Probably even in the valleys. 

If you believe the European computer models, the storm won't linger much, so only a little snow will fall. If you believe the American model, this thing might linger for several hours, which could dump several inches of snow Wednesday evening and night. That's especially true along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

I'm not sure which one to believe yet, but of course I'm rooting for the European model on this one.

We do know we have another hard freeze Wednesday night, and probably Thursday night, and a chilly day Thursday.

After that, it starts to warm up, and we can forget the bowling balls for awhile. We'll go back to our regularly scheduled spring.  

As always, stay tuned for updates. The forecast could well change! 

Last Year's Flooding Catastrophe Not Over For Vermont Farmers

A corn field ruined by flooding near Cambridge, Vermont,
photographed on July 12, 2023.  Vermont farmers are
still contending with the aftermath and damage
of last year's devastating floods. 

 Lisa Rathke over at the Associated Press tells us that far reaching effects of last year's flooding are still torturing many Vermont farmers as we gear up for planting season. 

Silt still in many farm fields, with landowners unsure how to remove it. 

Corn fields from last summer remain unharvested due to mud, silt, and pollutants in the wrecked, unusable crops. Many farmers have to test their fields for pollutants before they can grow any new crops. 

Some farmers kept get hitting.  Rathke highlights one central Vermont farm:

"Dog River Farm, in Berlin, Vermont lost nearly all of its produce crops in the July flooding. The farm removed truckloads of river silt and sand from the fields before another round of flooding in December washed away more precious soils, wiped out the farm's garlic planted in late fall and left behind more oil and several giant holes in a field, said owner George Cross...

'We had 15,000 garlic heads - bulbs growing here which is a significant amount of retail dollars,' he said, pointing to a section of field. 'And now they are gone. They're somewhere down along the Winooski (River)'"

Silt and sand piled up in drifts in floodplain cropland by the disasters of last year are an especially difficult dilemma. You can't dump it back into rivers. You can't pile it up like a dike along the river bank, as that causes environmental harm and might ultimately worsen future floods.

The sand and silt has to be hauled away, somewhere. The farmers have to pay to have that work done. If the sand and silt are not removed, there will be no crops on the affected fields this year. 

A grassroots fundraising campaign called Dig Deep Vermont announced Wednesday that it's giving out its first grants to 32 farms to help with some of those expenses. It estimated farms suffered around $45 million in losses statewide from the flooding, extreme weather and persistent rains. 

Dig Deep Vermont is still accepting donations, by the way. 

Perhaps more than almost anyone else, Vermont farmers are understandably spooked by what kind of weather this growing season will bring. With climate change, storms have gotten worse, and extremes have gotten more extreme. 

Last year, even farmers who suffered no flood losses had a rough go of it. The season started with a devastating freeze that ruined apple and other fruit crops, and disrupted wineries across the state. The summer proved so wet that it was hard to harvest hay. 

That's all bad for farmers. Still, not every growing season will be a mess. Let's do a toast and hope this year brings nothing but perfect farming weather to the Green Mountain State. 

A Welcome Break From U.S. Tornado Risks Before We Gird For Peak Season

This is definitely NOT a tornado, but this storm over
Lake Champlain sort of resembles one, and a tornado
did touch down in Benson, Vermont that day. The
nation is taking a few day break from tornadoes
but they should return within  week. Vermont
hasn't had one yet this year
and definitely won't any time soon. 

 Storm systems in the middle of the nation this week have spun off scores of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms, as is typical of April.  

Typical, but still dangerous and destructive. 

It was a relatively busy week for tornadoes, with at least 38 reported so far this week. This number could well increase as National Weather Service meteorologists inspect storm damage to determine whether a tornado or straight line winds were responsible. 

Starting today, we probably have a few days off from tornadoes in the U.S.

A weird quirk in this year's tornado stats so far is as of mid-April Ohio has had the most tornadoes of any state, with 35.  That doesn't include any that might have touched down in Ohio Wednesday.

The first part of the tornado season is usually focused on the South. Places like Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama or Tennessee usually have the most tornadoes through mid-April. Florida has had the second most so far with 34, and Illinois, also somewhat oddly north for early tornadoes has had 30 of them. 

Tornadoes struck Wisconsin, Michigan and New York during February, which is extremely odd for such northern states so early in the season 

Even in the most extreme tornado years, like tragic 2011, there are breaks of a few days in which there are no tornadoes during the peak season for these storms, which usually encompasses April, May and much of June. 

We're about to head into one of those periods, so people in places like Illinois and Ohio can relax. For a little while.

A wide dip in the jet stream centered in southeastern Canada for the next few days will create a flow of air from the northwest from the Plains to the East Coast. 

 This wide area is the zone in which tornadoes often form in the spring. But those northwest winds are dry, and block moisture from invading from the Gulf of Mexico. 

Warm, muggy air is a key ingredient for tornadoes. Without that, you have a hard time seeing a spinup.

So far, I'd rate this young tornado season relatively busy, but we're certainly not at a record pace. As of this morning, there had been 327 reported tornadoes, maybe a bit fewer than average, but definitely not at a record slow pace. 

Both in 2023 and the year before, there had been about 550 tornadoes in the U.S.  But in 2020, there had only been 254 twisters by April 17, according to data from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.  

The problem is the biggest number of tornadoes, and the deadliest ones more often than not hit in late April and May.  This break it tornadoes will be short-lived, as those breaks often are in April. 

 By next Thursday,  the dip in the jet stream over southeastern Canada will have pushed a little more to the east. That will increase the potential for south winds over the Plains and Midwest. That wind will bring back warmth and humidity. 

Once that steamy air starts to interact with any storm systems coming in from the west, the threat of tornadoes will blossom again. Computer models hint at some sort of storm forming in or near the central Plains by the end of next week. The tornadoes will be back. 

 

I Jinxed It: Vermont Forecasts Shifts To Cold Snaps, Freezes, Maybe Even Snow

A lilac twig in the rain Thursday in St. Albans, Vermont.
Despite a shift in the forecast towards freezes next week
it's early enough so that most garden plants
should weather the cold just fine. 

 In Thursday morning's post, I remarked about how steady the weather has been in Vermont over the past couple of weeks and how it looks like it might stay that way for awhile. 

Boy, did I jinx things!  

It's beginning to look like we have will have two freezes, one of them perhaps pretty sharp, and maybe some snow as it's looking like we're in for more of a typical April roller coaster. Of course, judging how forecasts have shifted since yesterday chances are they'll shift again.

For now, here's how it looks like it will proceed.

Today will be fine with clouds, some sun and maybe a shower around.  It will be a bit mild for the season - upper 50s to near 60. That's fine. 

The weekend will be breezy, partly cloudy and chilly, but again that relatively normal trend I talked about will hold. Highs will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s depending on where you are, with lows in the low 30s. Again, nothing odd.

By Monday, though, temperatures look like they'll only make it into the 40s with brisk winds continuing. There will be a freeze at night, but nothing terrible for April - mid to upper 20s.

That's the start of the roller coaster. Tuesday looks mild, Wednesday looks showery. Then it looks like we get a cold blast Wednesday night into Friday. 

From this vantage point it looks like we are in for some snow showers even in the valleys during this period. Highs Thursday would struggle into the 40s, maybe staying in the upper 30s in colder spots.  Nights will feature pretty hard freezes, with lows in the 20s. 

It's early enough in the season so that not much will get damaged from the late week freeze. Magnolia blooms will probably wilt and turn a disappointing brown, but most everything else should make it through, unless we're surprised by a much more intense cold snap than forecast.

Apple orchards and vineyards are not far enough along yet to sustain damage from the expected chill.

Probably after next Friday, it will warm right back up again. 

Planting Trees Does Not Always Combat Climate Change

 Trees are rightly considered our heroes for a bunch of reasons

Map shows where it's fine to plant trees to combat
climate change and where it's a bad idea to do so.
Blue areas are good places to install trees, orange
areas are bad. Click on the map to make it
bigger and easier to see. 

At least a couple of those reasons involve climate change. They pull carbon dioxide from the air and burp out healthy doses of oxygen.  Plant a bunch of trees in a hot city, and that city will turn a little bit cooler. 

Just like anything else that's a good thing, trees don't work everywhere when it comes to climate change. As Yale Environment 360 tells us, it's actually a bad idea to plant trees everywhere. 

One of those places is in or near the Arctic.  At first glance, that's fine, since nobody is interested in going to middle of nowhere northern Canada and Siberia to plant trees.  The problem up there is, since it's getting warmer in the Arctic. There's a bunch of tundra up north that was always too cold to support trees.

Now, trees are creeping north because they are now finding it warm enough to sprout. Tundra is more often than  not white with snow and ice. That reflects the sun's heat back to space. Trees are darker, so they absorb heat from the sun. 

The result is the trees just help speed up Arctic warming.   

This will seem a bit odd at first glance, but the same problem trees cause in the Arctic do the same in hot desert areas.  In these areas, people are sometimes tempted to plant trees to improve the environment. Perhaps some people innocent think the trees will do their part to combat climate change. 

They don't. Trees in formerly desert areas are darker than expanses of sand and dust.  Just like in the Arctic, the dark trees attract the sum's warmth, making hot conditions worse. 

Thankfully, trees are allies in the fight against climate change in vast areas of the globe. Those include the entire eastern United States, the Pacific Northwest, the Amazon, a huge stretch of central Africa, most of Europe, Southeast Asia and a few other places.

Luckily these areas are precisely where people have chosen for tree planting projects. 

This news is based on a  study by Nature Communications. They include a handy-dandy map, which you can see in this post. It shows where planting trees is OK, and where it's not a great idea. 

Judging from the map, it's A-OK to plant more trees here in Vermont, and anywhere in the eastern United States. 

Vermont Rain Struggling Against Dry Air Today During An Oddly Extreme-Free Spell Of Weather

 If you looked at weather radar overnight and early this  morning, you'd think it was about to rain any minute. 

This batch of daffodils in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens
seem happy enough with weather that has lacked
extremes over the past week to 10 days. So far, at 
least, the weather forecast looks mellow
for the next several days. 

But the rain kept disappearing by the time it approached the Vermont border. Were we in some kind of force field?

Kinda. 

The force field was just very low humidity. 

Dry air stubbornly held on overnight in Vermont, making any inroads the rain tried to make fail. It's the type of super dry air I talked about in yesterday morning's post.  When rain tries to invade, it often evaporates into that arid atmosphere. 

The rain was finally slowly edging into the Green Mountain State as of 7:45 this morning, but it's going to take its time. 

For instance, radar had the rain just to the southwest of my perch in St; Albans, Vermont for a couple hours previous to 7:45 a.m. I could see the rain from my house in the Adirondacks, but it only seems to advance toward me at a crawl.  It took another 45 minutes to just travel roughly ten miles to the point it started sprinkling at my place. 

The rain is moistening the atmosphere, so it will be able to advance across pretty much all of Vermont. But that dry air means it will only grudgingly advance across the state.  By the time it reaches the Northeast Kingdom later today, the weak system causing the rain will have exhausted most of its moisture supply. 

Rainfall will be light, amounting to as much as a quarter inch across western Vermont to only a few hundredths of an inch in the Northeast Kingdom. 

COOL DAY

April can be very temperamental. An example is this
blinding snow squall on April 22, 2021, which was
the second of two very snowy days in an
otherwise warm April that year. 

The light rain will keep the air cool today, holding in the 40s.  In the Champlain Valley, where temperatures sneaked to a little above 50 degrees early this morning, the light rain will chill us back into the 40s.  

Mild weather has been persistent this month.  Starting April 7, each day in Burlington has reached 50 and above.  The forecast calls for temperatures to reach at least 50 degrees for each of the next 7 days. 

Most days have been pretty close to normal, but it's been odd not to have a few chillier days thrown in with highs in 40s or only 30s.

 The only other April I can think of that had no such nippy days after the first week or so of the month was last year. 

For the record, the lowest high temperature on record for this date was 35 degrees in 1926.

I'm sure we'll eventually have a couple more truly chilly days before summer. (Remember last year we had a hard freeze on the 18th, and May 17 of last year featured highs in the 40s with snow flurries).

April is usually a pretty temperamental month in Vermont. Summery warm spells are followed by snowstorms. Warm sun and bone chilling winds can come on the same day, or within the same hour. 

This April has been oddly steady as she goes, at least after we got over that big ugly snowstorm on the fourth and fifth of this month.  And the forecast calls for continued moderation. 

It's as if April has stopped boozing and sobered up for a change. But don't worry, I fully expect our Vermont spring to go on another big bender sooner or later.  

Dubai/UAE Pounded By Unprecedented Rains; Prompts Cloud Seeding Questions

 The glittering dry, desert city of Dubai isn't so dry anymore.

In one day this week, Dubai had as much rain as it
normally has in about a year and a half. The desert 
location was socked by extreme downpours. 

A storm dumped about 5.6 inches of rain on Dubai in just 24 hours.  What makes that especially remarkable an entire year there normally features just 3.7 inches of rain.  

One report indicated about ten inches of rain, which would be more than double what usually falls over the course of two years. 

It's super rare for any spot to have a year's worth of rain in a day, never mind two years. 

The result was unsurprisingly chaos, as video showed planes splashing through floodwaters at Dubai International Airport and dozens of cars drowned in water beneath the city's gleaming skyscrapers. 

The flooding turned tragic in neighboring Oman, where 19 people have been killed amid heavy rain and flooding over the past few days. The deaths included 10 children and an adult swept away in a vehicle, the Associated Press reported. 

There's controversy in this, too, as the Associated Press reported:

"Several reports quoted meteorologists at the National Center for Meteorology as saying they flew six or seven cloud-seeding flights before the rains. Flight-tracking analyzed by The Associated Press showed one aircraft affiliated with the UAE's cloud-seeding efforts flew around the country Monday."

UAE has been conducting cloud seeding to enhance rainfall. Groundwater is dwindling in the region. However, the UAE has not commented on whether there was any cloud seeding going on as this storm loomed.

Cloud seeding - something that's been around for decades - involves injecting silver iodide into clouds that have plenty of water vapor. The silver iodide encourages ice crystal formation, which promotes additional rain and snow. 

Many experts question whether the cloud seeding - if it did happen - contributed much to the disaster. Research does indicate cloud seeding does increase precipitation under certain circumstances, but the added precipitation caused by the practice tends not to create a huge amount of excessive precipitation, as the Washington Post notes.

The weather pattern over Dubai was unusual, and that certainly was the major contributor to the downpours. 

A slow moving trough of low pressure moved into the region this week, drawing huge amounts of moisture toward the UAE, setting the stage for downpours. 

As meteorologist Jeff Berardelli explained on X (formerly Twitter), the storm also ingested a large amount of dust.  That dust can also be a cloud seeder, coalescing bits of moisture into a multitude of rain drops. 

We don't yet know whether climate change made this worse or had any influence at all. But in general, climate change does make storms more intense, and rainfall more torrential in many storms.   

As the Washington Post reports, Friederike Otto, a climate scientist with Imperial College London said ie makes sense that climate change could have made the Dubai/UAE storm worse than it otherwise might have been. 

She noted that climate change is producing heavier rainstorms worldwide because warmer air can hold more moisture. "Even if cloud seeding did encourage clouds around Dubai to drop water, the atmosphere would have likely been carrying more water to form clouds in the first place, because of climate change," Otto said