Vermont Monday Morning; Winter In April Continues

A burst of snow shortly after 7 a.m. this morning in
the Burlington area. This is a Vermont Transportation
Agency camera on Williston Road. Note the snow
sticking to the pavement on the bridge but
not on solid ground. I'm sure frozen bridges
surprised many motorists this morning. 

I awoke to another fresh dusting of snow in St. Albans, Vermont yesterday after it snowed most of the day Sunday. There was a dark overcast and it was still snowing a little.  

The National Weather Service issued a special weather statement for early this morning, warning of subfreezing temperatures and snow showers creating slick spots on the roads. A traffic camera shortly after 7 a.m. showed a moderate snow shower in Burlington with ice and snow sticking to the pavement of a bridge on Williston Road.

This morning looks and feels like the typical start of the day in late November, as we gird for a long winter. We obviously don't have a long winter coming, thank gawd, but unfortunately, winter weather is going to seriously subvert spring over the next 24 hours. 

After a cold day today, it'll be frigid tonight, as we've been forecasting for day.s 

It's not just us. Freeze warnings extend from Iowa through the southern Great Lakes and in pretty much all the Mid-Atlantic states. There's going to be a lot of garden damage with this cold wave.

Despite the expected deep chill tonight, there are no freeze warnings in Vermont. The growing season hasn't technically started yet, so the National Weather Service does not do such warnings this time of year. 

Let's get into the details 

TODAY

The snow showers should move out later this morning and some sun should break out, especially in the broader valleys. But frigid air is rocketing in to counteract the  strong April sun, it's going to be a typical mid-March day. That means highs generally in the upper 30s. A little warmer than that in southern valleys. A  little colder than that in northern higher elevations. 

Some places in the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks won't even get above freezing today. Pretty impressive for the third week in April. Impressive, but not in a good way. The ever-present gusty northwest winds will add to the chill 

Today's March wind and chilly temperatures set the stage for winter like morning lows tomorrow morning. 

TONIGHT

It still looks like skies will clear and winds will go nearly calm. Those are perfect conditions for super cold morning lows. 

As we've been harping on, garden plants and such have sprouted prematurely due to the recent warm weather, so that's why we're in trouble with the potential for frozen, ruined early season flowers and buds by morning.

There's the slightest bit of encouraging news. Maybe. Some  but not all of the  forecasts I saw this morning are a couple degrees warmer than yesterday's forecast. Those predicted lows are still well within the damage zone for garden plants. But every degree warmer than forecast lessens the damage. 

Also, a minority of forecasts indicate a few clouds might intrude overnight. We want to hope the minority wins, as clouds would help keep temperatures up. 

The current National Weather Service forecast has a low tonight in Burlington at 25 degrees, Rutland at 24, Brattleboro near 23, Montpelier at 21 and St. Johnshury at 19 degrees.

The plant damage will be worse in southern Vermont because they had much warmer weather for a longer period of time last week than in northern parts of the state. So things are really far along down there, and primed to get nipped by the freeze.

The traditional cold hollows are looking ridiculous tonight. Some towns in the Northeast Kingdom could end up in the low teens. Saranac Lake, New York is expected a Tuesday morning low of 11 degrees. 

I guess I'm focusing too much on tonight's cold weather on this because I'm an avid gardener. To most of the Vermont world, this cold spell will be forgotten very soon. Especially since the weather will turn to something very close to normal by the middle and end of the week

REST OF THE WEEK

And after the volatile weather of the past several days, the weather starting tomorrow will be well, boring. Which will honestly be a nice change of pace. . 

Tuesday will still be rather cold for this time of year, with highs in the 40s. They should be in the 50s to around 60 

The weather pattern setting up includes a stalled upper level low in the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure near Hudson Bay.  This is normally a recipe for much colder, unsettled, almost wintry conditions for this time of year. 

But the Canadian storm and the cold high pressure in Canada will be so far away from us that temperatures will be near or just a couple degrees cooler than average for late April.  The weather set up will mean storms coming from the west will get broken apart before they get here or get shunted to our south. 

That means if we get any rainfall over the next week it will be quite light, but timing out those light showers at this point is hard to do. 

Long range forecasts are notoriously dicey .But for now, the next chance of substantial rain doesn't come along until around April 29. And yes, if that April 29 storm materializes, it will be rain, not snow.

Quiet weather is expected for the end of the work week
along with slightly cooler than normal temperatures and periods of
cloud cover as a closed upper level low gyres over the Canadian
Maritimes. As an upper level ridge over the Great Lakes breaks down
and the maritime low shifts east, chances for precipitation increase
heading into next weekend, but with low predictability given the
evolving pattern and model spread. Highs for the end of the week
will be in the 50s, reaching into the 60s on the weekend, with lows
30s rising into the 40s.

Winter In April Vermont Sunday Evening Update: Snow Mostly Done, But The Cold Will Intensify

A patch of miniature daffodils endures Sunday's snow
in St. Albans, Vermont. Unfortunately, intense cold
tomorrow night will probably kill them off 

 It was a wintry day here in Vermont as we start the third week of April. It snowed much of the day across most of the state. 

The snow came during the middle of the day after a warm spell. The ground was warm and some sunlight was trying to get through the clouds. 

Those two factors prevented a lot of accumulation. Had this been a month or two ago, we would have had several inches of snow in the valleys .

The fact that snow accumulated at all testifies to the intensity of it for awhile today. 

In the valleys, the roads stayed mostly wet, maybe with a few slush patches during heavier bursts of snow. Higher elevation roads got slick and slushy, which is incredibly uncharacteristic for an April afternoon 

Route 15 near Rowell Road in Walden had to be closed due to slide-offs. Interstate 91 in Sheffield Heights in the Northeast Kingdom also had some crashes. 

The cold, elevated surface of my truck accumulated 1.6 inches here in St. Albans. Of course, there was less snow on the ground, but it did accumulate on grassy surfaces and trees. Burlington reported just 0.2 inches of snow. .

The snow pretty much ended here shortly around 3 p.m.m but as of 5 p.m. there is surprisingly sone snow still in the ground. It's not melting all that fast. 

The last and of heavier snow was in central Vermont late this afternoon and heading east. 

A few breaks in the clouds were appearing over western Vermont, so that might melt the rest of rte snow before sunset.  New snow showers have developed in New York, so we'll probably see some of that in Vermont this evening. Some of the snow showers could be very briefly heavy early this evening, but they won't lead to any new accumulation. 

TONIGHT, TOMORROW, TOMORROW NIGHT

A reinforcing cold front late tonight and early tomorrow morning could reinvigorate the snow showers briefly, but again they won't amount to much. 

But early morning commuters will start the day amid subfreezing temperatures. Left over water might freeze, and any snow showers might briefly stick to the pavement better than it did today.  Monday continues to continue blustery and cold. 

Unfortunately, we've gotten no good news for Monday night cold temperatures in the afternoon forecast updates  The forecast lows for Tuesday morning still look to be in the 15 to 25 degree range. Lots or spring garden freeze destruction looms.

I'll have more updates on this cold weather tomorrow morning, of course!  

Yes, It Will Snow In Vermont Later Today. How Much Is Still A Question

Yup! Another NWS snow prediction map. Valleys
should get very littl e snow this afternoon, but 
the mountains and Northeast Kingdom could get
a few inches of new snow.

UPDATE:  Rain was already starting to change to snow in St. Albans, Vernont as of 9:50 a.m. The earlier changeover might mean more snow than forecast. I'm not sure on that, stay tuned!!

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

If you got up early this Sunday morning, you enjoyed the last vestiges of the warm weather we just experienced. The high temperature today in Burlington looks like it was 61 degrees not long after midnight. 

It was still 57 degrees at 5 a.m. just before the cold front arrived. By 8 a.m. it was 48 degrees and rain was falling. 

Before we go on with the very bad weather news, let's reminisce briefly about Saturday. 

Southeast winds flowing down the slopes of the western Green Mountains often warm up a lot as they do so. Yesterday was no exception, allowing Burlington to get up to 76 degrees with the rest of the Champlain Valley experiencing similar temperatures. 

The rest of Vermont was in the 60s. The warmth and sunshine made for a gorgeous spring Saturday. 

Now for the depressing part. The snow, and the intense cold might do a number on some garden plants, depending exactly how cold it gets.  Here are the details

TODAY: 

The cold front is slowing down as it moves through Vermont and New Hampshire. That's allowing moisture to flow northward behind the front, ensuring a fair amount of precipitation all day. Notice I didn't just say rain.

Sure, a lot of this will be rain. But as temperatures fall into the 30s by afternoon, the rain will mix with and change to snow in many areas.   We're still struggling with how much snow we'll get.

Officially the National Weather Service forecast calls for a trace to an inch in most valleys, ranging up to four to seven inches on mountain summits. 

Most of us have removed our snow tires, so just a note that traveling could get tricky during the heaviest snow, especially in higher elevations. The ground is warm, so most of the snow will stick to grassy surfaces and  not roads. But the snow could be heavy enough in spots to make the roads slushy.

I'm also going to throw out a very slight chance of an unpleasant surprise. The kind of April surprise I'll describe has happened in the past, so it's possible.  Again, not likely, but it's a slight chance worst case scenario

The National Weather Service has a 10 percent chance that the snow could get really aggressive. Under this scenario, Burlington gets three inches of snow. St. Albans four inches, Montpelier 5 and Island Pond 9. 

The weather front now passing through is set up in a similar fashion to the big April snowstorms of 1983 and 2000. But there seems to be less cold air available than in those two occasions, which makes a big dump of snow today much less likely. 

Any snow might go back to a light rain for a time in the valleys as precipitation tapers off later today. 

TONIGHT

The only thing coming out of the sky tonight will be scattered light snow showers. The mountains could pick up another inch but everybody else will see no more than a dusting.  Especially for those of you with summer tires, some of the water out there on pavement could freeze, making for some icy patches. Yes, I know that's obnoxious for the third week in April.

Even worse, a reinforcing shot of cold air might rejuvenate the snow showers a bit toward morning.

MONDAY

Enjoy your spring blooms while you can. There's a good
chance that lows from 15-25 degrees Monday night
could destroy them. 

Monday will bring a throwback to mid-March. Stiff northwest winds will hold temperatures all day in the 30s to near 40. A few of the warmer valleys south could make it to the mid-40s.

Scattered  morning snow showers in northern and central valleys will tend to fade by midday but could continue in the afternoon across the Green Mountains. In other words, it will be a typical mid-March day. 

It'll be a good day to cut any flowers you have blooming and bring them inside to enjoy because.....

MONDAY NIGHT

Skies will clear and winds will go calm.  "High" temperatures are going to be so low on Monday it won't be much of a journey to get below freezing. And it will get far below freezing by dawn Tuesday. 

As of this morning, the National Weather Service is going for a low early Tuesday morning of 23 degrees in Burlington, 20 in Montpelier, 21 in Rutland and 17 in St. Johnsbury. Parts of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks of New York could each 14 or 15 degrees. 

These aren't quite record lows, but are quite frigid for the third week in April.

As I've mentioned before, climate change has created earlier springs. Also more volatile ones. So, spring trees, plants and flowers bloom prematurely, only to get zapped by a freeze. 

Decades ago, a freeze of this magnitude during the third week of April would have been no big deal because plants would not have progressed far enough along to be damaged.   It's not every year in the recent past we've had damaging late freezes, but it's been frequent. I'm thinking late April, 2021 and especially May, 2023 as examples. We're going to add April, 2026 to this list 

Early spring blooms are tough and there will be survivors this time. But we won't know for weeks whether lilacs and other plants that are still budding but not quite blooming received damage or not. I know that daffodil blooms get wrecked at temperatures under 25 degrees. And depending on how far along lilac buds are, they have a good chance of turning brown and ugly too.

So this whole thing is just a depressing mess. The only hope is if we unexpectedly get increasing clouds or wind Monday night to hold temperatures a little higher.

BEYOND THE COLD WAVE

As we likely survey the wreckage of our gardens later this week, the weather, almost cruelly, will turn very, very normal.  Tuesday will still be quite cool, but the rest of the week will be pretty average, with highs i the 50s to around 60 and lows in the 30s to around 40.  It looks like there will be very little rain during this period. And more importantly, no snow!

Last Warm Day In Vermont Today, A Little Snow And A Hard Freeze To Snap Us Back To Realit

First daffodils of the season in my St. Albans. Vermont
gardens. Will they survive the hard freeze expected
Monday night? Stay tuned!

The good news is a strong cold front that created a nasty tornado outbreak in the Midwest yesterday will not bring any severe weather to Vermont. We already had a tornado in Willliamstown, Vermont Thursday night, so that's enough.  

The bad news is the cold front will bring very cold air this time of year. So cold that it could well damage some or perhaps even many of the plants that have bloomed too early because of the recent warm weather. 

Vermont springs are never easy. 

Let's break it all down for you:

TODAY/TONIGHT

Early this morning, the sun was out, the birds were chirping away, the grass on the lawn is now green and there's buds on the trees. Ahh, spring!  The rest of the day will continue lovely. It will get increasingly breezy. Probably downright windy in the Champlain Valley by late afternoon.  

The winds will be from the southeast, off the Atlantic Ocean, so places east of the Green Mountains will be cooler.  In Brattleboro, where high temperatures have been in the mid 70s to low 80s most of the past week, will probably barely make it to 60 degrees this afternoon.  Meanwhile, the Champlain Valley should be close to 70.

You'll also notice clouds starting to increase west to east this afternoon. That's the first sign of the cold front that will spread rain across Vermont overnight. The rain will continue into Sunday with totals between a half inch and three quarters of an inch. 

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT

Oh, this is not going to be your day. You'll unfortunately need to huddle inside. Unless you love cold, wet, damp, bone-chilling weather.  The day will start off chilly and rainy and those temperatures should fall through the 40s.

In their forecast discussion this morning, meteorologists at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington tell us the computer models are struggling a bit with how Sunday afternoon will play out. We pretty much know mountain summits will see rain change to snow, probably in the morning. 

The valleys have some questions about snow. Sigh, I know. We shouldn't be talking about valley snow still, hut here we are. Some of the computer models end most of the rain before the really cold air arrives, so the valleys wouldn't see any snow during the day under that scenario. Those are the models we're rooting for. 

Other models bring the cold air in sooner, and also slow down and strengthen the cold front. If that happens, we could get a period of snow. Which could be briefly heavy. Even in the Champlain  Valley. 

I'll have an update on this first thing tomorrow morning. 

Whatever happens, Sunday will not be a nice day to say the least. So much for spring. Overnight Sunday, temperatures should fall below freezing almost everywhere, with continued snow showers. There won't be much accumulation, but that's literally cold comfort for April.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT

Monday will bring us back to mid-March. It'll turn out partly sunny in many areas, which is nice, I suppose. But high temperatures will generally be in the 30s to around 40.  That's a good twenty degrees colder than normal for this time of year. Some southern Vermont valleys could make it into the mid-40s, but some high elevations in the north might not get above freezing all day. Yuck. 

Northwest breezes will make it feel colder. For the cherry on top, the Green Mountains might continue to have some light snow showers much of the day. 

Then the bottom drops out of the thermometers Monday night. It should clear up and winds will go light. 

Temperatures should end up in the low to mid 20s for most of us by early Tuesday morning. Colder spots should be in the upper teens. These won't be record lows, but this month's weather, and climate change in general, has screwed everything up. 

Plants are blooming earlier in the spring nowadays due to climate change. Southern Vermont has just gone through nearly a week of summer weather.  Not only has our springs turned warmer, they've gotten more extreme, consistent with climate change. That includes sharp, brief cold snaps that interrupt the warm weather. 

I don't know how much damage this weather will cause, but I think some places will miss out on some spring blooms. Plants and trees whose buds are still pretty tightly closed should be fine. Hardier early season blooms will probably do OK, too. I guess this weather will be an experiment on how much cold plants can take. 

BEYOND MONDAY

After the frigid start to Tuesday, the day will warm up, sort of, but still be much colder than average, with highs in the 40s. An early guess has the rest of the week will feature highs mostly in the low 50s, which is only slightly cooler than average. An improvement, I suppose. It also looks like we'll see very little if any rain next week. 

 

UPDATE: Confirmed:Tornado Last Night In Williamstown, Vermont, Top Wind 90 MPH

A maple sugaring shack collapsed in a confirmed EF-1
tornado that hit Williamstown, Vermont last night

 The National Weather Service in South Burlington confirmed late this afternoon that a tornado did indeed hit Williamstown, Vermont. 

It was a very brief one. It was 100 yards wide and only traveled just under a half mile (the path was officially 0.43 miles long. The tornado hit at 9:15 p.m. and was on the ground for less than three minutes.

The tornado was rated an EF-1 with winds up to 90 mph. Here's the National Weather Service narrative on this one: 

"Initial damage was observed as sheared tree tops about 100 yards west of damage observed on Chelsea Road, to an old sugarhouse and small building estimated as EF0-EF1. Damage continued east to a neighborhood on Lila's Way, where EF-1 damage to a hone was observed, along with damage to numerous trees, Damage then became scattered wind damage in the form of straight-line winds estimated at 60 to 70 mph. Golf ball size hail with siding and window damage observed along Baptist Street,"

An EF-0 tornado has winds of 65 to 85 mph. An EF-1 has winds of 86 to 110 mph 

I have not seen any reports of injuries which is great!

No tornado warnings were issued before the brief touchdown.  My guess is that since the twister was east of the Green Mountains, radar in the Burlington area was unable to pick up ground level rotation. Or the tornado was so brief it hit between radar scans.

The lack of a tornado warning does not appear to be related to Trump administration cut backs to the National Weather Service.

Meteorologists at the National Weather Service in South had been tracking the tornado's parent thunderstorm all evening. Rotation was detected over the Adirondacks but it appears no tornado touched down there .

The thunderstorm weakened slightly in the Champlain Valley but re-intensified over and east of the Green Mountains. The NWS noticed how much the reinvigorated storm had intensified. At 9:27 p.m., they issued a severe thunderstorm warning

The National Weather Service issued a severe thunderstorm warning at 9:27 p.m. for northeastern Orange county and south central Caledonia County. The warning told people in the area to expect 60 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball sized hail.

WPTZ reported that residents were understandably shocked by the storm.  Christian Pratt said he believes the roof of his home was damaged by wind and hail He said the large hail falling on the rood sounded like somebody took a ladder and dumped a load of rocks on the roof. The kitchen window on his house shattered

Vermont averages just one tornado per year. I believe this twister was the first one since July, 2023. This was Vermont's first April tornado on record. The rare occasions when we do see tornadoes usually come during the summer.

Vermont's first March tornado on record occurred just five years ago in Middlebury. 

  

Possible Tornado In Williamstown, Vermont Last Night

Screen grab from WPTZ shows a destroyed barn, and
a collapsed sugar shack (background left). The
National Weather Service is investigating whether
this was caused by a tornado or just strong winds

Personnel from the National Weather Service office in South Burlington are in Williamstown, Vermont, investigating a possible tornado. 

Video from WPTZ showed a destroyed barn on Chelsea Road in Williamstown was destroyed and a collapsed sugar shack collapsed.  Debris was visible tangled in damaged trees. 

 Judging from the video, damage was confined to a limited area. .Trees on the other side of a field behind the wrecked structures looked mostly fine. 

An apparent supercell thunderstorms crossed the Adirondacks early last evening, then moved west to east across central Vermont.  There were reports of hail up to size of golf balls and wind damage in Barre and Orange, which are near Williamstown.

I'll have full update on this once the National Weather Service finishes their survey and reports on their findings. That will come later today or tomorrow morning. 

Summer Air Surged North, Couple Big Vermont Storms, Today, Calmer, Mild, But Nasty Cold Snap Coming

I'm so close to seeing daffodils in my yard after  
yesterday's warm, humid weather and rain. But a looming
hard freeze could damage plants on Monday 

 Our stalled weather front surprised us a bit yesterday when it surged north all the way to the Canadian order.  It was supposed to stay chilly and clammy north. But we got a reprieve. 

I knew it was happening by late morning here in St. Albans when I went outside and noticed it was strangely humid for this time of year. 

The warmth spread all the way across northern Vermont to the Canadian border. Newport and Highgate both reached 71 degrees.

 It was 77 degrees in Burlington, the warmest day so far this year. Rutland reached 80 and Bennington got up to 83 degrees. Not record highs, but impressively warm for this time of year. 

Even more impressive for mid-April was the humidity. The dew point - a good measure of how humid it feels out there - got up to around 60 degrees. That would be considered seasonably humid in July, but it's pretty incredible for April. 

That ensure many of us would see thunderstorms, and sure enough lightning was also detected up to and a bit beyond the Canadian border.  We thought any strong storms would stay in far southern Vermont. But with the front moving further north, the worst of the storms hit central parts of the state

One apparent mini-supercell did cross central Vermont.  It appeared to have some rotation over the Adirondacks, but not nearly enough to produce a tornado. The storm weakened a little as it entered Vermont a little north of Middlebury. 

But it strengthen again in eastern Vermont. Tree damage was reported in Barre and Orange Hail the size of quarters was reported in East Orange.

The storms also produced torrential rain. A little over two inches of rain fell in South Lincoln. 1.83 inches fell in Warren. Jerusalem a hamlet south of Huntington had 1.78 inches.  There might have been a bit of local flash flooding out of those rains, but I haven't seen any such reports. I noticed there was a sharp rise on the Mad River in Moretown last night, but it stopped a little short of flood stage. 

SETTLING DOWN, BUT THEN.......

Our stalled front that's been pestering all week and creating weird temperature variations is finally on its way out. Skies should slowly clear today, revealing a mild afternoon.  And the range in temperatures across Vermont won't be weird, either. Highs will range fro 60 degrees near the Canadian order to near 70 on southern valley floors. 

Tomorrow should be nice, too. Sunshine might tend to fade behind some clouds in the afternoon, especially west. This time, southeastern Vermont might be a touch cooler than the rest of the state for change. 

Winds will come from the southeast, not southwest like they did in southern Vermont for the past few days. Southeast winds come from the cool Atlantic Ocean. So places like Brattleboro might barely make it to 60 degrees while the Champlain Valley flirts with 70

UGH! WINTER COMES BACK

The cold front coming in Saturday night and Sunday really mean business. And not the kind of business we like in the spring. Rain will cone in Saturday night as temperatures start to fall late.

Rain should continue most of Sunday as temperatures fall through the 40s. Rainfall will probably amount to a half inch to three quarters of an inch, give or take.  Then, some of the now light rain showers should change to snow showers Sunday night. Many of us could get a dusting of snow. 

So much for spring. 

It stays bad Monday. We'll start the day at or below freezing, then only get up into the 30s to low 40s during the day. Some places might have record low high temperatures on Monday. The lowest high temperatures on record for that date are in the mid-30s. I think chillier towns like Montpelier or St. Johnsbury could tie or break those records.

Then, it gets well down into the 20s Monday night and early Tuesday. Normally, such temperatures  in the third week in April are unpleasant but not really harmful. .But spring blooms have advanced well beyond normal, especially in southern Vermont where it has been warm all week. A few trees are already starting to green up down that way. 

I'm not sure yet, but Monday night's chill could harm new leaves, springs flowers and even possibly apple and strawberry crops. It depends on  how far buds open by Monday.

I'm full of great news, aren't I?

After that intense for the season cold snap, it will warm up somewhat, but most days through the end of the month and probably into early May will probably be slightly cooler than average. It might be showery at times during that period, but I doubt there will be any big storms.