Addison County, Other Areas Of Vermont, Hard Hit By Storms, Might Not Qualify For FEMA Assistance

Torrential rains in Vermont that caused flooding after
the "Big One" on July 10-11 caused damage, but
that new damage might not qualify for FEMA assistance.

 In this hellishly wet, stormy, disastrous summer of '23 in Vermont, the long string of flash floods since the "Big One" on July 10-11 means that some people in the Green Mountain State might not get the help they need. 

All things considered, the storm damage Addison County from the big July 10-11 storm wasn't so bad - at least compared to severely hard hit counties like Washington and Lamoille. 

However, a series of storms since then have piled up the damage in Rutland and Addison counties since then.  The most recent ones causes serious problems around Middlebury on August 3, and around Rutland August 4. 

So far, though, Addison County has not qualified for a disaster declaration, 

The August 3 storm in Addison County was particularly serious.  Areas in and around Middlebury were inundated when a large, but isolated thunderstorm dumped up to 6.1 inches of rain in three hours. 

Several homes and businesses in and near Middlebury were damaged, and several roads, including Route 116 suffered serious damage. Even some buildings in downtown Middlebury and at Middlebury College suffered losses. 

 The town of Hancock is in the Green Mountains, in extreme eastern parts of the county,.  A number of roads washed out, homes and business suffered damage and people were stranded on the wrong side of gaping holes in roads and driveways where culverts used to be. 

Then on Friday, it was Rutland County's turn to suffer flood damage. Rutland City was especially hard hit. Homes on Clover, Granger and Spruce and other streets suffered damage. Other areas, like Stratton Road, suffered washouts.

Addison and Rutland counties, along with many other parts of Vermont suffered additional flood damage in a series of storms that started July 13.  It's unclear, though, whether the new damage around Rutland on August 4 will be included in the county's existing disaster declaration. 

Other areas of the state, like eastern Chittenden and Franklin counties, might not get help for storm damage in mid to late July. 

The problem is the Federal Emergency Management Agency reasonably enough insists on a firm start and end date to any particular disaster. Usually, the period of the disaster is limited to no more than a few days. 

This one in Vermont is like I mentioned in a previous post - the monster in a bad horror movie that keeps coming back even after everybody thought it had been killed. 

"Typically, FEMA will look at the storm system - one storm system - and that's the event. This is a little different. We have had multiple, multiple systems that have come in rapid fire after the initial event and created more damage. But everything has to come to an end in FEMA's eyes," Vermont Gov. Phil Scott said this week.

Which means that the stuff that happened since July 10-11 might not be included in FEMA's final disaster declaration.  A determination on all this is TBA. 

If Thursday and Friday's calamities cannot be lumped together with earlier floods in July, there might be another out.  If enough damage was sustained in western and southern Vermont, the late week storms could be declared a separate disaster.

Or perhaps FEMA will decide to include everything through August 4 as part of this one disaster. 

That's one reason why it's important for people to contact 211 to report flood damage, no matter when or where it hit this summer.  State officials said at least 6,000 people have contacted 211 to report damage. 

It's not like FEMA hasn't been involved, either. They are helping. As of this week, state officials said more than 4,500 people have applied to FEMA, and the agency has already distributed $11.6 million. 

The constant string of new storms has obviously stressed the thousands of Vermonters trying to recover from storm damage, and state resources. 

Vermont Public Safety Commissioner Jennifer Morrison said the state has conducted 216 rescues and 162 evacuations so far this year.  That compares to a quote, unquote normal year of six rescues and 30 or so evacuations.

There's no immediate forecasts of renewed flooding in the forecast, but we are going to continue to be harassed by rapid fire storm systems that will slow us down with showers on Thursday, later Saturday and occasionally next week. 

 

Tornado In Addison County, Vermont, And The Low Down On Vermont Tornadoes

In a still shot from Levi Barrett's video of Monday's tornado
in Addison Vermont, you can just make out a car accidentally
driving into the twister as debris flies overhead.

As you've heard on the news by now, the National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont has confirmed that an EF-1 tornado touched down in Addison, Vermont Monday evening. 

Interestingly, the Addison tornado is the only one to be so far reported yesterday anywhere in the United States. The last tornado in Vermont before this, in Middlebury, Vermont in March, 2021, was also the nation's lone tornado that day. 

Tornadoes are pretty much always weak in Vermont, and this one was no exception. It was on the ground for only about two minutes, covering a mile of territory. 

Of course, even weak tornadoes are dangerous, and this one is no exception. It collapsed a metal structure, forcibly bent a street sign and tore down many trees and branches. Though no injuries were reported, the tornado crossed both Routes 22A and Route 17, so anyone caught in it could have been hurt.

In fact, video of the tornado appears to show a car accidentally driving into it as trees collapsed or blew apart around it. 

The video, shot by Levi Barrett, is fascinating. Although the tornado is clearly on the ground in the video, the condensation funnel isn't fully coming into contact with the surface. But it definitely appears to be a multi-vortex tornado, meaning you can see little mini tornadoes in the main twister circulation.

I associate multi-vortex tornadoes with much stronger systems in the Midwest, but as you can see, they happen with weaker storms. 

Also, to the best of my knowledge, this is the only video that exists of a tornado in Vermont. 

It's hard to describe a typical tornado in Vermont because they don't happen very often, but this one had the characteristics of the kind of thing you do see in New England from time to time. I warm front moved north through the state Monday.  

There's some evidence that the Addison tornado was
multi-vortex, meaning it had little tornadoes within
the main circulation. In this still from Levi Barrett's 
video, you can make out a skinny little funnel
descending from the main funnel 

Just south of the warm front, humid winds blew from the south. But the presence of the warm front caused winds to change direction with height. Even though the parent storm was small in size and lacked lightning, it was still capable of producing a tornado because of that spin in the atmosphere. 

In these ultra-humid summer situations that come without other ingredients to produce tornadoes, you can still get brief spinups that can cause some havoc. 

On Monday, there was almost a rare  case of more than one tornado touching down in Vermont on the same day, which hasn't happened in decades. But the idea of two Vermont tornadoes in the Green Mountain State didn't quite come to be.   

As I noted in a previous post, there was convincing radar images of a possible tornado around Marlboro and West Brattleboro around 10 p.m. Monday night. Local National Weather Service offices are responsible for deciding whether to investigate storm damage to determine whether it was a tornado or something else that caused it.

Marlboro and West Brattleboro are covered by the National Weather Service office in Albany, New York. I reached out to the Albany NWS office about this. They said there was indeed mid-level rotation, meaning the winds were spinning pretty vigorously several thousand feet above the surface. But there were no damage reports out of this area, so the wannabe tornado very likely did not touch down.  

I also did not see signs on radar images that anything in southeastern Vermont was flinging debris into the air. So, Albany meteorologists decided not to investigate, which is a perfectly reasonable conclusion, in my opinion.  

Storm chasers also found a storm with significant rotation yesterday in Hartford, New York, just over the border from Pawlet, Vermont.  While it's doubtful a tornado touched down, one could have in the remote, hilly terrain near Pawlet, for all we know. 

With Monday's confirmed tornado in Addison, Vermont, it seems the Green Mountain State has gotten back into the groove of seeing its average one tornado per year.  Of course, we had that infamous March, 2021 Middlebury tornado, which is the only twister known to have ever touched down in March. 

The Middlebury tornado was rare in that it caused at least two injuries. Tornado injuries are rare in Vermont, and I know of no recorded deaths from tornadoes in the Green Mountain State.

Another tornado, packing winds of up to 110 mph touched down in Windham in August, 2020. That tornado ended a twister drought of sorts in Vermont. It was the first tornado the Green Mountain State had seen in eight years. 

Also, in the past few years, there have been tornadoes very close to Vermont. On May 16 of this year, a tornado that was videoed hit Charlestown, New Hampshire, just a mile or two from Springfield, Vermont. 

On June 21, 2021, a supercell thunderstorm that originated in and caused damage in northern New York then moved into Quebec produced a tornado just 14 miles north of Alburgh, Vermont. 

There has been an uptick in the number of tornadoes in the Northeast and Middle Atlantic States in the past decade or two. However, there are so few tornadoes in Vermont that it's pretty much impossible to discern any kind of real trend. 

Tornado Confirmed In Vermont Monday, More Hot And Severe Weather Ahead

Radar image from last evening from the weather team at
WPTZ-TV.  This shows likely strong rotation and a
possible tornado near Marlboro and West Brattleboro,
Vermont around 10 p.m. last night. The close proximity
of the red and green colors shows wind blowing in 
opposite directions right next to each other, indicating
that possible tornado

UPDATE:

An EF-1 tornado in Addison, Vermont was confirmed by the National Weather Service office in South Burlington.

Among the evidence: A local resident, Levi Barrett, caught the tornado on video.  It clearly showed a twisting funnels, perhaps some sub-vortices within it.  The tornado is visible on video flinging tree branches and other debris into the air. 

The tornado crosses a road in the video, and frighteningly, a car appears to drive right into it. 

The tornado was on the ground for a mile and had top winds of 90 mph, according to the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

I'll have more on this later as more details are confirmed. 

 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Yesterday did indeed prove to be an interesting weather day in Vermont, as some of the stronger showers and small thunderstorms ended up rotating as expected.  This might or might not have resulted in one or two brief tornadoes in Vermont.  

Meanwhile, more  hot, humid weather is up for today through Thursday, with additional chances for more severe storms in that period. More on that in a minute. 

One rotating storm last evening shortly before 7 p.m. caused tree and property damage and a report of a 69 mph wind gust near the intersection of Routes 22A and 17 in Addison last evening. 

The small storm did show signs of rotation on radar. At least for a short while. However, it's unclear if the damage was from straight line winds or a short-lived tornado.  

Video still of a tornado in Addison, Vermont shows tree 
branches being lofted into the air. Video by Levi Barrett.
It was provided to WPTZ's weather team and posted
on Twitter by WPTZ Chief Meteorologist 
Tyler Jankowski 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington announced they have people heading to Addison this morning to determine whether or not it was a tornado.  They'll probably be able to tell what it was that caused the trouble by looking at the damage pattern.  For instance, if trees in the damage zone fell in different directions, it would more likely be a tornado. If all the fallen trees point in the same direction, it would more likely be straight line damage. 

The National Weather Service says they will tell us by this evening what they think hit Addison.   

Another possible brief tornado might have hit last night at about 10 p.m.  around Marlboro and West Brattleboro, but unfortunately, I suspect we'll never know for sure. 

Radar images were fairly convincing, but not slam dunk proof that there was a tornado in that area. It seemed to have happened in a relatively remote area, and as of this writing, I'm not aware of plans by any National Weather Service office to investigate this. (It would be the National Weather Service office in Albany, New York who would go there, as Brattleboro is part of their coverage area).

The storm prompted a tornado warning for southwestern New Hampshire, including the cities of Hinsdale and Keene, but the rotation fizzled on approach to Keene and I'm pretty sure there was no tornado there. 

Further east, it appears there was likely another tornado in Poland, Maine, north of Portland. 

In any event, the rain with these storms was surely welcome.  A small minority of towns missed out with around a half inch of rain, but most areas in Vermont received around an inch of rain, give or take, from yesterday's system. As expected, the heaviest rain was in parts of the Northeast Kingdom not far from Jay Peak, where I saw some reports of over two inches of rain. The most I've seen so far is 2.77 inches in Derby Line. 

The light rainfall in southern and eastern Vermont is a big disappointment because that's been the driest part of the state and drought has been established there. 

NEXT UP: HEAT AND STORMS

Very warm and humid air will cling to us like a smelly wet blanket through Thursday, but there might also be a few moments of excitement here and there. 

Let's break it down.

Today

Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms 
northern half of New England today. That somewhat
 higher risk in yellow in the western Great Lakes
represents our future on Thursday. 

Now that yesterday's warm front has gone by, the very warm,  humid air has fully engulfed us. It'll be in the 80s today with fairly high humidity.  The broad valleys will be in the upper 80s, and there could be a spot 90 here or there. 

The warm front's parent storm is still up in Quebec, and is flinging little mini cold fronts southward our way. There's not much to these little disturbances, but given the unstable air in place, they can trigger some strong storms pretty quickly. 

There's dry air aloft, so they don't have all that much moisture to work with. That's why forecasters say the storms will be widely scattered. Most of us won't even see a storm today.  Unfortunately, the storms, with their rainfall, are least likely in southern Vermont. 

Though today's storms will probably be relatively few and far between, any that do get going could well pack a punch. 

The dry air way up high is also relatively cool, at least compared to the air we're having to deal with down on the ground. That means the air is unstable. One of many things meteorologists look at when considering thunderstorm forecast is something called CAPE, or Convective Available Potential Energy.  This describes the amount of fuel available for storms, the amount of instability in the air. 

Generally speaking, if the CAPE value is over 1,000 in Vermont, there's a risk of strong to severe storms. Forecast CAPE levels are forecast to be between 1,500 to 2,500 in Vermont this afternoon, so the potential is there. 

Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the risks from today's storms. Atmospheric conditions are wrong for any tornado potential, so that won't be an issue today. 

 Things quickly quite down tonight and it will stay stuffy and uncomfortable for sleeping. 

Wednesday:

Probably the hottest day of the period, with a caveat.  Some forecasts call for quite a bit of sun, and very little chance of showers or storms, so that would bring the warmer valleys into the low 90s.

A few forecasts call for a fair number of afternoon thunderstorms Wednesday, especially over the mountains. The clouds and outflow from these storms would keep us a wee bit cooler, but still humid. If these storms develop, one or two could very briefly cause strong winds but there's no widespread severe risk in Vermont on Wednesday. 

Thursday

We're still at risk for quite a few severe storms on Thursday. Earlier guesses are southern and eastern Vermont and the rest of New England are most at risk.. But all of Vermont and eastern New York are also still in play here. 

Risk of severe storms for all of New England on
Thursday. Wind, hail, maybe even tornado?

An stronger than normal storm, and a stronger than normal cold front for this time of year will be approaching.  Especially if there's a lot of sun before all that gets here, we're in line for some big storms. 

Typically in these situations, the worst storms come near what is known as a pre-frontal trough.  A pre-frontal trough is basically a mini cold front that is running out ahead of the main, "real" cold front.

The timing of the pre-frontal trough, and the cold front itself is key.   If either comes through in the morning, then the risk of severe storms falls

If these come through in the afternoon, after the sun destabilizes the air, then we're in trouble. Especially in this case. 

Upper level winds will be almost the strongest on record for this time of year. If big thunderstorms get going, they can grab those strong upper level winds and fling those gusts down to the surface, on to us.  That would lead to some really serious downbursts in a few spots, which can cause a lot of damage.

Hail and even a tornado or two are also possible Thursday, depending on the timing of things. Stay tuned for updates! 

Beyond Thursday

The air behind the cold front isn't actually much colder, but it will gradually turn somewhat cooler and drier Friday and over the weekend. But it'll still be well into the 80s Friday and low 80s over the weekend. A rapid series of disturbances will keep the risk of scattered showers and storms going into early next week, but figuring out the extent and timing of any rain at this point is impossible.