Wednesday Evening Vermont Update: As Freeze Looms, Deep Snow "Snoliage" Gorgeous, Tourists, Not So Much

Snoliage near Stowe, Vermont this morning. 

 As more reports came in from the mountains of Vermont and New York today, the snow amounts on the summits seemed more and more impressive. 

Especially for October. 

The summit of Jay Peak had a good foot of snow. At Underhill State Park, Vermont, at a 3,300 foot elevation on the upper slopes of Mount Mansfield, 11 inches was measured. Across the pond, at a spot very close to the summit of Whiteface Mountain, the snow was 15 inches deep.

Snow amounts diminished rapidly as you went downhill in elevation. But the snow extended down the slopes far enough to offer a treat to the leap peepers rampaging through Vermont. 

I headed up to Smuggler's Notch and Stowe this morning to check out the snoliage, and everything was predictably stunning with the colored leaves and white snow. There's video proof at the bottom of this post you can check out. 

OH, THOSE TOURISTS

Most of the tourists were happy and great, but some of them made it obvious why some Vermonters roll their eyes at out of state leaf peepers.

What the hell, the dumber variety of tourists give us all a bit of a bemused chuckle. 

There's plenty of pull-offs along Route 108 through Smugglers Notch to stop and take photos. Also the Smuggler's Notch and Stowe ski areas have large parking lots where you can stop, get out of your car and admire the mountains and snow and leaves around you.  

I had to shake my head and laugh, though at the behavior of some tourists. At no fewer than three entrances to large ski area parking lots, tourists pulled their vehicles over across the entrances so that nobody else could enter the parking lots - which each had room for at least 100 cars. 

Some people honked horns trying to get in, but the tourists who blocked the entrances pretended not to hear them.  

Snoliage near Smuggler's Notch, Vermont this morning. 

On a particularly winding part of Route 108 through the notch, somebody stopped in the middle of the road on a blind corner to take pictures. I stopped in time. 

The guy by the stopped SUV kept waving me to go around him, ignoring the fact that there was a line of traffic in the opposite lane coming through. What, he wanted to see a head on collision?

On another blind corner, another SUV parked in the middle of the opposite lane, facing the wrong way.  That held up about two dozen  cars while the two occupants of that stopped car frolicked in the snow on the side of the road. 

At another spot, a car with three young women got stuck in the snow in a pull-off.  Myself and three or four other men tried to help. There was only about three inches of slush beneath the car but whatevs. Her car had bald tires, but what the hell, we were up to the challenge of getting them out and on their way.

And a challenge it was!  We'd clear snow from around her tires, tell the woman to keep her wheels straight and then gradually hit the gas going backwards to get out. She repeatedly turned the wheel sharply and gunned it. 

So yeah, it took awhile. 

At one point, I cleared snow from around the tires with my bare hands, causing one of my fingers to bleed just a tiny bit. As we finally freed the car, I noticed a little of my blood was left on the hood of the car. I can't decide whether I hope the young women notice or don't notice.

Also, at a trailhead, I spotted a woman setting off on an apparent hike in shorts. It was about 35 degrees with a gusty winds. Hope she wasn't going far! 

But the vast majority of the tourists playing in the snow seemed happy, normal and considerate, so that was great. I got there early, and hightailed it out of the Stowe/Smugglers Notch area as traffic really began to pick up late in the morning. It must have been an absolute zoo there this afternoon. 

FROSTY NIGHT

The frost advisory in the Champlain Valley for tonight and early Thursday was upgraded to a freeze warning in most of that area, as temperatures are forecast to get to or a little below freezing. Finish your emergency frost harvest from your garden this evening.

That said, the frost and freeze is conditional on whether it clears up overnight. Clear, calm nights this time of year is how you get frosts and freezes. 

Dry air coming in from the northwest should clear up the thick, low clouds that were over much of Vermont late this afternoon. But there's a chance an inversion could keep them in place.  If that happens, it won't get as cold as forecast.

But if clouds keep your garden from turning into frozen mush tonight, you're not out of the woods. Sure,  it'll be a little warmer under sunshine Thursday and even warmer Friday. But the dry air coming in ensures clear, calm weather Thursday and Friday nights. That opens everyone up to more freezing temperatures, especially Thursday night. 

The literally bright side of all this is, with sunny skies tomorrow, the snow capped mountains and the fall foliage should continue to make the scenery absolutely sublime. 

Let's just hope the tourists behave. 

Video: Snoliage scenes around Stowe and Smugglers Notch, Vermont today. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below click on that.

 

Rain, And Yes Snow Coming To Vermont; Will Help Slightly With Drought

Back to snow covered flowers for some of us in Vermont
Thursday night and Friday, but hey, we need the 
moisture in any form we can take it. 

With everything greening up much earlier than usual this spring, the last thing people enjoying this want in Vermont is a winter storm. 

But, a few parts of Vermont are in for just that situation Thursday night and Friday.  The odd thing is the prospects of snow are actually a very good thing. 

Any kind of moisture at this point will be so welcome.  Even if that moisture is snow. 

I guess the weather gods heard us complaining about the current drought in the Green Mountain State and wanted to help out with a bitter sense of humor. So, for some of us, snow it is!

A winter storm watch is up for the southernmost two counties of Vermont, and up into Windsor County, and the high elevations of eastern Rutland and Addison counties.  This will be an elevation storm, with the places in the six inch plus club for snow being up above 1,000 feet, and more likely up above 2,000 feet in elevation. 

Most of us valley dwellers will see a cold rain, probably mixed with wet snow flakes at times. 

Projections for this storm have been creeping northward over the past few days, which gives us in northern New England a better shot at precipitation than in earlier forecasts. Which of course I'm really happy about. Dusty gardens in Vermont during April is definitely weird and scary. Let's hope this precipitation actually plays out, now that we have our hopes up. 

According to current forecasts, you'll really start to notice the change from the long, oddly warm spell we've had. Under a cloudy sky, temperatures will struggle to make it into the 50s. Then light rain will start, spreading southwest to northeast across our area.  As the rain begins, temperatures will fall into the 40s. 

This initial rain will mostly be from a disturbance coming in from the west. Meanwhile, a nor'easter will form along the the Mid-Atlantic coast and move into coastal New England Friday. This scenario will pivot moisture back into western New England, which gives at least some of us a welcome soaking. 

Snow levels in Vermont will fall overnight Thursday, and even many valleys will see that rain/snow mix late Thursday night and Friday morning. 

The mountain passes over the Green Mountains, Routes 9, 4, 73, 17 and 125, and maybe Interstate 89 near Brookfield will probably see full blown winter storm conditions overnight Thursday and into Friday with heavy, wet snow.  It's possible some of the high elevations in far southern Vermont could see a foot of sloppy snow, with six inches more plausible in the lofty spots further north. 

Power outages will likely be an issue up high as well. 

Friday will be cold, raw, wet breezy day as the nor'easter lingers near the New England coast. A light, cold rain will probably continue most if not all of the day, with snow up high.  Snow levels will rise Friday as it is mid-April.  Some heat from the sun will get through the clouds to "warm" us up a bit. 

Still, temperatures will stay close to 40 degrees all day even in the "milder" valleys. 

Total rain and melted snow at this point. looks like it will amount to an inch or a little more in far southern Vermont, down to a half to three quarters of an inch north and west of Interstate 89, with even a little less than that in the Northeast Kingdom.

This won't be nearly enough to solve our drought problems, but it would certainly help. Keep doing your rain dances in hopes of this scenario becoming reality. 

The weather will slowly improve Saturday, but it will remain slightly cool for the season.  Then we pop back up to near 60 degrees Sunday and into the first part of next week.

During this storm, temperatures will stay at or a little above freezing, even at night, so early plants that have greened up outdoors should survive. If you have tomato starts or other tender things like that out on your back deck, you'll want to bring them indoors for this storm, but otherwise, gardeners should e all set.  Just enjoy the needed moisture. 

We'll certainly need quite a bit more rain even if forecasts for this storm prove accurate. There are chances for rain next week, but if, how much and when is still open to a lot of debate.

Dangerous Tornado Outbreak South; Record Warmth, Thunder, Flood Watch Here In Vermont

Area in pink is at the highest risk of tornadoes today some
strong and long lasting. Surrounding area in red is at 
almost as high a risk. 

A little over a week ago, Mississippi and Alabama experienced a relatively rare "high risk" day for tornadoes, which is the most dangerous situation you can get for predicted severe weather. 

The storm causing the danger in the South will affect Vermont, but of course not with tornadoes.

We expect record warmth, a good dose of rain, some wind, maybe some flooding, maybe some thunderstorms. More on that in a bit.

SOUTHERN TORNADOES

Although a total of 49 tornadoes caused a lot of destruction in mostly rural parts of Mississippi and Alabama on March 17, there were no fatalities. 

The worst storms missed the cities, and warnings in advance of the tornadoes were excellent. With all that, they dodged a bullet.

Will they today?

None of those March 17 tornadoes were at the upper end of the tornado strength scale.  The strongest tornadoes last week on a strength scale labeled EF that range from EF0 to EF5. The strongest tornadoes last week were at level EF2, with top winds of 135 mph. The vast majority of all tornadoes in the United States are at EF2 strength or less.  

There is, unfortunately, a good chance of very strong tornadoes today. This will hit in basically the same areas that were under the gun a week ago.  

Conditions almost couldn't be more perfect for intense, long lasting tornadoes, especially in the northern halves of Mississippi and Alabama and the western half of Tennessee.  This includes the cities of Tupelo, Jackson, Memphis, Nashville and Birmingham.

Stronger tornadoes in a worst case scenario can winds over 200 mph and level almost everything in their path.  Most tornadoes are on the ground for only a few minutes, but long-tracked tornadoes like the ones possible today could keep grinding their way through towns and countrysides for more than an hour or even several hours. 

Rotating supercell thunderstorms are expected to rapidly form in central Mississippi this afternoon and move northeast.  Humid air, a lot of instability and winds changing direction and speed with height along the path of these storms bodes poorly for this region. 

As was the case last time, many areas under the greatest threat have a high degree of poverty, so many people might not have the wherewithal to hear or act on warnings.  Substandard housing and a great many vulnerable mobile homes adds to the danger. 

The mess of tornadic storms will eventually congeal into a squall line that will head toward the Ohio Valley tonight with strong wind gusts and a few more possible tornadoes.

VERMONT IMPACTS

In the last southern tornado outbreak, the parent storm causing the havoc entirely missed us, keeping us dry. 

Not this time. As I've said before, it's excellent that we're getting a needed slug of rain, there are a few potential downsides. 

Before the storm, warm air is surging into our area. Temperatures were already in the 50s for many of us as dawn broke this morning. Despite some increasing clouds this afternoon, temperatures will be in record breaking territory this afternoon.  Several places will hit the low 70s. 

Records for the date are likely to be broken in Burlington, Montpelier and other cities and towns around the region.

The first wave of rain will come through within a few hours either side of dawn tomorrow. In Vermont especially, the rain will move off to the north and some breaks of sun are possible as temperatures go well into the 60s, and possibly near 70 again if there's enough sun.

That potential sunshine will make the air more unstable as the storm's cold front approaches. At this point there looks like a band of showers and early season thunderstorms will come through.  I suppose a few storms could have some gusty winds and even small hail, but it doesn't look like there will be anything severe.

It's awfully early in the season for that sort of thing anyway. 

The two bouts of rain, combined with the melting snow in the mountains, has prompted that flood watch for much of the region.  Many area rivers will end up near bankfull by Friday night or Saturday morning, with minor flooding possible along these rivers.  

It'll turn sharply colder Friday night with even some snowflakes in the air in places, but this won't be anything odd for March.

I won't get into that second storm expected Sunday and Monday in this post, but certainly expect some variable weather coming up with that system, and beyond.