Vermont Snow Finally Winding Down. More Than A Foot Many Places. Long Cold Spell To Continue

The view out my home office window in St. Albans,
Vermont as getting increasingly blocked by snow 
after todays snowstorm. 

As you surely noticed if you live here, it snowed lightly all day in Vermont, adding to the totals we talked about this morning. 

The snow has an incredible fluff factor, so seemingly, we had a lot more snow.  As the next few days go by, though, the snow that piled up should settle by several inches. 

Especially since, after this evening, very little if any new snow is on the way until at least next Saturday, and possibly beyond that. 

But the snow we have is sure as hell not going to melt. We have a lot more cold air coming. More on that in a minute. 

It's beginning to look like northern Vermont might have gotten a little more snow than the south, which is opposite of what was forecast. The following won't be final totals, since it was still snowing in most of Vermont. 

But so far, the biggest totals I've seen are 19 inches in Waterbury Center, 18 inches in Walden, 16 inches in Morrisville and 15 inches in Danville. 

As of 1 p.m in Burlington, they had collected 13.5 inches. And it kept snowing after that. Here where I am in St. Albans, I'm lagging behind a lot of places. As of 4:30 p.m, the storm total measurement was up to 10.2 inches. 

Even if you didn't like dealing with all the snow and the frigid temperatures, we in Vermont should thank our lucky stars. Of all the states affected by the huge winter storm that thrashed the U.S., Vermont was one of the few places where the storm probably did more good than harm. 

It's giving a great boost to the winter sports industry and tourism. And it's just a bit more water than will melt into the ground come spring. It'll help the growing season get off to a good start. 

LOOKING AHEAD

This snow isn't going to last much longer, if it hasn't already quit by the time you read this. Most of us should be done with it by 8 p.m. or so. If not sooner. 

Of course, if you're driving home from work or wherever this evening, the roads are still covered in snow statewide Obviously, take it slow. 

Since it's staying cold, the roads won't be pristine tomorrow morning, either. You'll need a little extra time to get to work because we'll still have snow on the roads. 

COLD WEATHER

We are by no means in the most intense cold wave on record here in Vermont, but it looks like it will turn out to be one of the longest lasting ones in quite a long time. 

The temperature fell below 20 degrees this past Friday in Burlington. If current forecasts holds, it won't make it to 20 again until maybe a week from now. I don't have time this afternoon, but by tomorrow morning I'll look up when the last time that happened. 

Overnight lows will stay near zero each night. Below zero in a lot of places. The cold should tend to intensify a bit Thursday, Friday and Saturday, when temperatures could go well below zero at night. 

At least it doesn't look as bad as Friday and Saturday, when some places got into the 20s below. 

By the way, I had wondered if anybody in Vermont made it to 30 below Saturday night. As far as I can tell, the answer is no, But East Haven got down to 29 below, so close. 

As I mentioned this morning, I'm hearing some buzz about a possible nor'easter toward next Sunday. and/or Monday Some of the computer models do suggest such a storm. So far at least, it seems the forecasts are trending too far east to give us much more than a worsening wind chill from north winds.

That prediction can become wildly different one way or another by the end of the week, so as always, we'll update as needed  

Extreme, Dangerous Storm Now Underway In U.S.. Here In Vermont, Big Powder Dump Due

What a mess. 

Just the beginning. Freezing rain beginning to weigh
down this tree in central Texas early today. By
this evening, we should start to see widespread
tree damage and power outages due to the
ice storm in the south. At least half the people
in the U.S. are now under a winter storm warning 

As expected, rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow is falling across a huge area of the central and southern U.S. and the problems have only just begun.

As usual, I'll have Vermont specifics below, but first. the national update. Spoiler: We're getting a big storm here in the Green Mountain State, but we're a luckier than a lot of people. 

At least half of the nation's 343 million or so people will be affected by this storm. I'm not sure, but I think the area of the United States under a winter storm warning is the largest I've seen since 2011.

And for some people this will be the worst storm in at least that long. 

\The first power outages from freezing rain, snow and wind were already starting to crop up early this morning. As of 9 a.m. eastern time, nearly 36,000 people had no power in Texas. More than 4,700 people in Arkansas and 3,000 people Oklahoma were in the dark.

The number of outages across southern and central parts of the U.S. will no doubt rise exponentially today. 

Traveling is a nightmare, or soon will be in huge swaths of the nation. Airlines are scrambling. As of 7:30 a.m. today, Flight Aware tells us there were 3,568 canceled flights today in the U.S. It's worse tomorrow, with more than 6,100 flights canceled. These numbers will probably rise further.

A wide stripe of heavy snow will end up extending 1,500 miles or more, from Oklahoma to New England and on into southeast Canada.

To make matters worse, some states, most notably Michigan and Vermont, are facing road salt shortages as the storm approaches.  

If there's a bright side, it's this storm won't be as bad as the Texas deep freeze, winter storm and electrical grid  collapse in 2021 that killed nearly 250 people. And despite some sensational social media posts I've seen, it won't be as bad as the Storm of the Century in 1993. 

Still, it's bad enough. I unfortunately predict it will cause at least a few tragic deaths and perhaps cause $1 billion or more in damage before it's over. 

VERMONT COLD, STORM

Just as planned, it's annoying cold out there today. We've started the day with temperatures in the single number and teens below zero, and wind chills in the minus 20s. Henry the Weather Dog was extremely quick and efficient with his first morning trip outdoors this morning. The poor little guy ran full steam to the door when he was ready to come in. I had the same mindset. 

High temperatures, if you can call them that, should get up to near or a little below zero for most of us. The banana belt in the lower Connecticut Valley might get all the way up to five or eight above. At least the sun will be out, so, um, yay?

Increasing clouds from the approaching storm will prevent temperatures from completely bottoming out tonight. But it will be below zero for sure. The Northeast Kingdom, which is normally colder anyway, will be the last to see the clouds. That means it could flirt with 20 below overnight in some spots up thee. 

Nine extreme cold shelters are open throughout the state this weekend to homeless people who would otherwise be exposed to the dangerous wind chill outdoors. 

You're going to want to dress for today's weather, obviously. The elderly and children are at most risk from getting in trouble with the frigid weather, so really keep an eye on them. 

The Storm

Forecast snow amounts for the upcoming storm have
increased, especially in northern Vermont. Almost
everybody should see at least 10 inches of snow
A few places in southern Vermont could get
close to 20 inches. Good news is this will
be powdery snow with no ice mixed in. 

Our main story, obviously is the big winter storm and how it will affect Vermont. 

The answer is pretty greatly. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington has boosted expected snow totals since their forecasts yesterday. Especially in northern Vermont.

Statewide, total accumulation from this storm are now expected to range from eight to 17 inches.  Some spots in central and southern Green Mountains could close in on 20 inches. 

If the current forecasts hold, places north of Route 2 would get a little less than a foot of snow. Central Vermont, including Burlington, Montpelier and Rutland would get about a foot or a little more than that. Places like Bennington, Brattleboro and Springfield would see maybe 15 inches. 

To nobody's surprise, the winter storm watch has been upgraded to a warning in northern Vermont. And the winter storm warning in the rest of the state is still in effect.

The snow should start in the early Sunday afternoon south of Route 4, mid-afternoon in central Vermont, and late afternoon north of Route 2.

The snow will need to overcome dry air before it reaches the ground. You'll be able to see that process tomorrow. Watch the mountains. The tops of them will look blurry at first as it starts to snow at the summits. But mid slopes and valleys will be clear as the snow evaporates on the way down in the dry air.

Gradually, the blur on top of the mountains will get lower in elevation as the air moistens. Finally, it[ll start snowing in the valleys. 

The overall forecast for the path of the storm hasn't changed since last night. The changes to the forecast in northern Vermont reflect more confidence that the good moisture from the storm will get that far north. Heck, even Montreal is expecting six inches of snow out of this. 

Usually this type of storm has bands of heavier snowfall that increase the accumulation in a few spots. That'll probably happen this time. But it's always almost impossible to know where these bands will set up ahead of time. 

The Storm's Effects

We in Vermont are a lot luckier than most other places in the path of this storm. Firstly, ski resorts, cross country centers, back country skiers and other snow lovers in Vermont are not exactly upset by this weather forecast.  It might as well be tourism dollars floating down from the sky during this storm. 

Also, unlike so much of the U.S. in this storm, we will not get any sleet or freezing rain. 

This will also be a light and fluffy snow. Ten inches of snow in an average snowstorm would yield about an inch of water.  With this storm, the snow will be so fluffy that you'd need at least 20 inches of snow to get an inch of water. 

If this storm were rain, we'd only get a half to three quarters of an inch of precipitation. 

All this means is we won't have any problems with trees falling and power lines snapping.  It'll be easier to shovel than those wet "heart attack" snows we've gotten in many snowstorms in recent years. 

There's a caveat to that, of course. This is still going to be an oddly cold storm, with temperatures mostly staying in the single numbers and teens. Shoveling snow in very cold air can increase the risk of heart attacks. 

The powdery snow will make traveling tough, especially on highways like Interstates 89 and 91. A passing semi will create a thick cloud of snow so that you won't be able to see anything around you. 

Even regular cars stir up enough snow to blank out your view. Also, this type of snow is deceptive. It will look like you're on dry pavement because the snow has blown off the road. But car tires will have compacted a little bit of that snow into black ice. That "dry pavement" could be a skating rink. 

The heaviest snow will come down Sunday night and early Monday. The drive to work Monday morning will be, well, interesting, I guess with all that snow. Try to work from home if you can. I'm guessing quite a few schools will be closed. 

The snow will turn lighter during the day Monday but probably continue at least until evening in most areas. 

You know how, in our recent warm winters we'd finally get a big snowstorm, but a thaw would arrive within a couple days to melt a lot of it away? That's not happening this time. 

The weather pattern doesn't seem to favor a lot more additional snow after this storm goes by. But the snow we'll  have on the ground is absolutely staying put for quite awhile. At this point, I see no signs of a thaw at least through the second week in February.

Attempts At A Little Drought Relief In Vermont, But Some Of It Falls Short

Droughts tend to be self-perpetuating, and we see that in what's going on in Vermont now. 

A nice amount of water in my St. Albans, Vermont rain
gauge this morning from last night's weather front,
but most of Vermont missed out again. The drought
will not go away anytime soon, even where 
there were a few downpours last night. 

A wet weather front approached us Thursday and Thursday night from New York and actually held together enough to give a corner of northwest Vermont a decent soaking.  

It still had enough oomph left to deposit a healthy 1.16 inches of rain in Burlington and a glorious 1.3 inches here in St. Albans. So not bad! Not enough to end the drought, but it did wet us down a bit

As the front moved further eastward into Vermont in continued to run into a buzzsaw of dry air over the dusty Green Mountain State .  The rains quickly evaporated.  

Part of the problem was the front was just running out of gas and the contrast in temperatures in front of and behind it fell apart. That helped reduce the amount of rising air that manufactures rain. Plus, the sun had set, so the instability in the air was waning, which reduced the amount of rainfall. 

If the air had been more humid before last night's weather system got here, the rain might have held together longer and covered more of Vermont.  And had the ground been wetter instead of parched that would have translated a little humidity to the air to help with process of making rain. 

 Most of eastern and southern Vermont, which needed the rain even more than areas west of the Greens, only received a few hundredths of an inch of rain last night.  Not really even enough to get things vaguely wet.

We do have another shot at receiving rain, but it will be no drought buster. 

Before we get there, we have another dry, sunny day to get through. The clouds were clearing this morning. Though the air won't be as arid as it was Thursday, the sunshine and breezes should resume the drying process in northwest Vermont and continue it in the east. 

The forecast has been consisted for a second cold front to drop a decent amount of rain tomorrow. Let's hope that forecast holds up. 

Even better, if the predictions are correct,   this next round of rain tomorrow will hit eastern Vermont the hardest. Still, those areas should receive only a half inch to at most an inch of rain.  Northwest Vermont should receive an additional third to a half inch of rain Saturday. 

Saturday's rains will help somewhat, as it will be a steady soaker,  But you need several of those for the rest of the fall, and so far, that doesn't look like it's in the cards. 

Next week looks dry once again, with only scattered light showers or sprinkles at most. The weather pattern through mid-September and probably well beyond that features a series of big fat, dry, slow moving high pressure systems coming from Canada.  

That means cool outbreaks, then warm ups as the sunny highs with low humidity sit right over us for a few days, sucking away what little moisture we have left. Then, new cold fronts with new outbreaks of chilly, dry air come in, rinse and repeat.

Except there's no rinse. The cold fronts that will introduce each new dry high pressure system will probably be moisture-starved, and provide very little wetting. That's very bad news. 

DROUGHT IN PERSPECTIVE

The gold standard for measuring droughts is the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, which has been in operation since 2000.

According to the Drought Monitor data, our current Vermont drought is the most intense since at least 2000.  I remember a similar drought in the late summer of 1999, but it wasn't as bad as this, and ended abruptly with a very wet September. Which won't happen this year. 

Vermont faced persistent drought in the 1960s, but it was a sort of long lasting, low-key affair in which precipitation was mostly below normal, but it never really entirely shut off, like it did this August. Back then, we had problems with dry wells, and iffy crop yields, but the trees weren't turning brown in the middle of August like they did this year. 

There was also a spring drought way back in 1903, when Burlington got only 1.63 inches of rain in April, and just a trace in May, which is the driest month on record. But the summer of 1903 was wet, so that drought eased. 

It's going to take a lot to get out of this one. Vermont State Climatologist Lesley-Ann Duping-Giroux was quoted by VTDigger than the state needs six to eight inches of rain throughout a month to pull itself out of this drought. And the rain would need to keep coming after that, 

We're going to need a lot of wet nor'easters, stalled weather fronts and other inclement weather later this fall, through the winter and next spring to recover from this.  

Vermont is already feeling the economic effects of this drought. Farmers are running out of water for livestock.  They have to buy expensive feed because they're not growing enough of their own because the drought stunted yields. 

The drought might dull Vermont's famed foliage season, which could cut into the revenue we get from the annual influx of leaf peepers. 

If this keeps up, the ski industry might be in trouble, since resorts use a lot of water to make snow. 

It's hard to pin a drought like this directly to climate change, but it's consistent with it.  With climate change, there's a lot of weather whiplash -  everybody goes from one extreme to another.  The summers of 2023 and 2024 in Vermont were disastrously wet, with extreme flooding and destruction. 

Suddenly this year, the rivers are dry, the lawns are brown and the wells are empty. The only consistent thing between these summers is it was unusually hot. 

The hot weather patterns of 2023 and 2024 were accompanied by high humidity and plenty of storm systems to wring out that excess moisture into flooding rain. The warmth and heat of 2025 has often been dry, and there's been precious few storms to wring out any water in the air to give us rain. 

Thaw Timing Is Hideous For Vermont Ski Resorts

Last bits of snow melting away in St. Albans, Vermont
Thursday amid springlike sunshine and temperatures
around 50 degrees. The thaw will intensify
today and Saturday, bad news for winter sports. 

 The big February warm spell we're having in Vermont is not only bad for ice fishing, as I mentioned yesterday. 

It's also terrible timing for Vermont's ski industry. 

We're heading into Presidents week, the holiday time in mid-February that marks the peak of the ski season. It's essentially the Black Friday of the ski industry. 

Traditionally, bases on ski slopes are at or approaching their deepest about now.  What was once the usual series of winter storms should have piled up natural snow to at least create the icing on the cake. 

Not this year.  

Higher elevation towns like Greensboro and Shrewsbury had less than a foot of snow on the ground. In some Februaries, snow depth in these towns is three feet or more.  

Valleys are even worse. 

Even as the thaw was just starting in earnest Thursday, there was absolutely no snow in most of the  Champlain and lower Connecticut valleys.  My property in St. Albans is only partly covered with snow now. Amid the warmth, sunshine and light winds Thursday, I did a little brush clearing wearing a black t-shirt, with no jacket or hoodie. 

Any low elevation cross country ski destination is screwed, as they pretty much have been all winter. 

The Catamount Outdoor Family Center in Williston, Vermont was weathering the lack of snow somewhat because until Thursday,  trails were firm enough for fat bikes. But as temperatures warmed into the upper 40s, the recreation center was warning those bike enthusiasts: "If you're leaving a track, please turn back."

So, Catamount will need to wait for colder weather to firm up the trails, or preferably, a snowstorm, the prospects of which are iffy at the moment. 

SPRING CONDITIONS

In Burlington, snowfall this season has amounted to 27.9 inches through Thursday morning. If this had been an average winter, there should have been about 52 inches by now. No new snow is in the forecast until Monday at the earliest, and even then, if Burlington does get anything it will be basically flurries, at least as forecasts indicate now. 

Back up in the mountains, snow making is even problematic now. Temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing at times even at summit level. 

 Through Wednesday, the snow depth near the top of Mount Mansfield had been stuck at 48 inches since  January 28. The depth retreated to 47 inches on Thursday, below the normal for the date of 55 inches.

The snow depth up there will continue to fall further and further behind average for the next few days. 

 The weather forecast statewide continues to call for near record high temperatures today and Saturday.  Most everyone will be in the 40s today, with low 50s in some of the warmer valleys. 

The heat wave should peak on Saturday. There might be some sunshine in the morning, and that could help boost temperatures even more if it lingers long enough. Even with increasing clouds most valleys should see highs exceed 50 degrees. It's possible a few readings near 60 degree could pop up in the southeast corner of the state.

We'll probably have a few record highs get re-written Saturday. Especially in Burlington, with that strangely cool current record high of 46 degrees in Burlington. 

It'll be so springlike that the warmth could add a little instability to the air, like in the warm season. That could lead to a rumble or two of thunder in southern Vermont when the showers move in during the afternoon. 

It's not like you can't go skiing and riding in Vermont over the next few days. It's just that it will be spring conditions in many areas. At least you won't freeze your butt off, right?

Last year was arguably worse. 

Every day except one in at ten-day stretch ending February 16, 2023  was in the 40s. February 15 and 16 last year had record  highs of 57 and 56. 

Climate change has made this type of winter warm spell more likely, so get used to it. Some winters will still be cold and snowy going forward, but the odds are tilted toward more thaws. The deep winter snows of the 1960s and 1970s in Vermont are a thing of the past, except for very rare exceptions here and there. 

BACK TO WINTER?

There's still a few reasons for hope if you are a winter enthusiast and aren't particularly interested in an early spring. 

Long range forecast continue to call for below normal temperatures here in Vermont starting in about a week. And it looks like that chill will probably last longer than that brief interlude of winter cold in mid-January. 

True, precipitation looks to be below normal, but under a cold regime, anything that comes out of the sky would probably be snow. Bad news for snow lovers though: We had questions about whether a storm would come close enough to give us a decent dump of snow Monday night and Tuesday. 

The answer to that question appears to be nope.  Most indications are that storm will pass by too far south to give Vermont much of anything. If any snow does squeeze out of this, it would be light and mostly down in southern parts of the state.

History is sort, of kind of. on winter's side too.  I'm going to take you back to February and March, 2017.

On February 25, 2017, the temperature reached 72 degrees in Burlington, breaking the record high for the month by a whopping nine degrees. Which is absolutely insane. I can't think of another example of a monthly record being set by that wide a margin. 

But a few weeks later, the Pi Day Blizzard hit on March 14, dumping 30.4 inches of snow on Burlington - the city's second biggest snowstorm on record. 

All this is to say, don't celebrate spring just yet. 

Rainy, Foggy Christmas Week Unwelcome In Vermont During Oddly Warm December

We've had a lot of rainy days and nights in Vermont this
month, like this scene in downtown St. Albans, Vermont
on December 10. Another unwelcome rainy spell is hitting
tonight through Thursday. 

 Early this morning, fog blanketed much of the Northeast, including Vermont. In some places, it was freezing fog so there might be a slick patch or two on the roads until  mid-morning.

 At least you might have caught a glimpse of some very pretty frost on the trees left behind by the sub-freezing mist.

At least before all that melted.  

It was a warm and rather dark Christmas Day in the weather department, and that trend is going to continue most of the week.

 I almost wrote "moist of the week" which is actually a pretty accurate description, too. Which is unfortunate for vacationers wanting  ski week in Vermont.

The ski areas are all of course open, and they made snow when they could. But it's not like there's deep powder anywhere. 

I suppose the best day you'll have for winter recreation is today.  After the fog lifts this morning, it'll be cloudy, but rain-free. Temperatures will be very warm again for the season, reaching the 40s. Even at most of the ski ares. 

Next up is a long lasting, complicated period of wet, inclement weather for us. It'll be rain, even up on the mountain summits,  until possibly toward the end of the week when a little snow might mix in. We shall see.

The root of all the wet warmth in Vermont this week is a large, swirling upper level low in the middle of the nation. It's the one that is causing a blizzard and ice storm in the central and northern Plains. 

Rain should spread into Vermont this evening, continue overnight at least off and on through Wednesday and probably Wednesday night. At first it'll be spottier the further north and east you go, but by Wednesday afternoon, everyone should be into a soaking rain again.

But not that soaking. Unlike the last storm, which causes serious flooding across Vermont and the rest of northern New England, this one won't be nearly enough to cause any serious worries. Rivers will probably go up a bit, but not hit flood stage.

Even if this storm ends up surprising us with more rain than forecast - like the last one did - we still don't really have much to worry about with flooding. We won't have nearly the amount of rain we did a little over a week ago. 

The exception to the no flood forecast might be Lake Champlain. The rain and runoff could push it toward or even minor flood stage of 99.5 feet by later in the week.  Above 99 feet, the lake can cause problems with waves, erosion splash-overs, especially on windy days. As we well know, it's often windy this time of year.  

When it gets below freezing the waves and splash over can ice over nearby roads, which is what happened last week. 

But that's a problem for a few days down the road.

As the large whirl in the atmosphere keeps slowly drifting toward the south and east toward the southeastern U.S. coast, it's kind of hard to tell how it will interact with other weather disturbance passing by to the north of it. 

In general, it will start to turn cooler, but not abruptly cold Thursday into Friday.  Some lingering rain and/or snow is a good bet on those days, but at least as far as I can tell, it's pretty hard to tell at this point how much. 

But at least the mountains have a shot at regaining a little of the snow lost last week and during the war, rainy spell we're getting into now.

STRANGE WARMTH

For now, the main oddity of this whole storm system is how warm it is. Daytime highs won't get anywhere close to recor highs. But following a trend we've seen all this year, really, nights have been and will be strangely warm this week - well above freezing. New records for highest minimum temperatures will probably be set. 

The temperature at Burlington rose above freezing at 10 a.m. Saturday and will stay above 32 degrees until later Thursday night at the earlier.  Nearly six continuous days above freezing in the depths of winter! 

For comparison, record lows in Burlington this time of year are in the 20s below zero. 

 At a time of year when subzero temperatures are routine, the coldest it's gotten so far in Burlington is a comparatively balmy 14 degrees. It looks like that will be the chilliest temperature this entire month. It's a very rare December that fails to get into the single digits above or below zero at least a couple times.  

The only December that compares to this was the bonkers warm month of December, 2015, which is by far the warmest on record. 

It looks like this December will end up being Burlington's second warmest and second wettest on record, but I'll have the final say on this when complete stats for the month are available on New Years Day. 

 Temperatures will be closer to normal  heading into the New Year and during the first week in January, but not downright cold. I'm sure we'll have a spell of frigid, subzero cold eventually, but so far, it's not in the cards for awhile, anyway.