"Kitchen Sink" Weather Comes To Vermont, Still A Mess Out

UPDATE 5 PM FRIDAY

National Weather Service radar image from around 8 a.m
today shows a cluster of thunderstorms in and around 
Rutland, and a hail-producing cell over St. Albans.  

The storm is pretty much over, save for some lingering flurries in the Champlain Valley and Green Mountains. 

It's amazing how accurate the National Weather Service office in South Burlington was with this forecast.

Any time you have wide temperature differences and quick changes in precipitation types, you're almost guaranteed to get parts of the forecast wrong. 

Not this time. 

Things were a little wonkier than forecast with the thunderstorms and hail. But NWS Burlington did mention the possibility of thunder in some of their forecasts,

For such a tricky forecast, I'm amazed they got the amount of ice correctly, and the amount of snow that followed the ice. For the record, at my place in St. Albans, I got 1.6 inches of snow. 0.3 inches of sleet and more or less 0.05 inches of ice from freezing rain. 

More incredibly, NWS Burlington was spot on with the timing of the changeovers from rain to freezing rain to snow. 

I would say road conditions in northern Vermont - at least the main roads - are definitely better than they were during this morning's mixed precipitation. But I'd advise going slow and taking care. It's not perfect out there, that's for sure. 

It's still looking like a nice day Saturday after a cold start.  Sunday and Monday will bring some thawing to melt the ice. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

The good news is I haven't seen any reports of locust swarms in Vermont today. 

But it's been a "kitchen sink" kind of day as every imaginable type of weather has hit, except of course no kitchen sinks falling out of the sky. That I know of. 

We've had the expected rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow. But also thunderstorms, especially across central Vermont. Oh, and hail.  Did I mention hail? Another thunderstorm-like thing came through St. Albans this morning, dumping a quick, heavy shot of hail. Most of the stones were a little bigger than peas. 

The hail was mixed with freezing drizzle. Lovely. 

We've also had every kind of temperature you could get, too. At 10 a.m., it was 22 degrees with snow in Highgate. At the same time, it was 57 degrees in Bennington. 

So yeah, it was about as weird a winter morning as you can get in Vermont. 

The roads are bad as you might imagine, except in areas to the south and east which as of noon hadn't gotten below freezing yet.

It will remain nasty through the afternoon, but the extremes are settling down. As of 1 p.m. or so, all the freezing rain and sleet had turned to snow in the Champlain Valley. Central Vermont was still seeing that ice, but that should go over to snow soon. (Montpelier flipped from mixed precipitation to snow between noon and 1 p.m. for instance).

An ice glazed bush gets a frosting of snow this 
morning in St. Albans, Vermont. 

The snow will be tapering off to very light stuff or flurries as the afternoon wears on.  

All that ice and snow on the roads will remain there for awhile, since freezing rain and sleet is so hard to clear. Especially with temperatures dropping the way they are. 

If you drove to work this morning, it'll probably be a lousy trip back home, too. Especially in central and northern Vermont. 

Daytime temperatures are now by the lowest they've been since the big cold snap on February 3 and 4.  It's gotten into the teens in the northwest corner of Vermont and those teens should slowly spread south and east through the afternoon. 

It's windy out there, too, with many places gusting to 30 mph or more. That's bringing wind chills into the single numbers. So bundle up when you go out there to hack the ice off your car. 

Incredible Arctic Blast Blessedly Almost Over In Vermont

One of many large steam devils on Lake Champlain
Friday amid subzero, windy, awful conditions.

 This has easily been one of the coldest 24-hour periods in a long time. Especially yesterday afternoon and evening. t 

Thank goodness it's almost over. 

The most remarkable part of this was how cold it was during the afternoon and evening yesterday.  In the late afternoon, when temperatures should be peaking for the day, actual temperatures were in the teens to low 20s below across much of Vermont. 

Wind chills were in the 30s and 40s below region wide, with a few spots in the low 50s below.

After spending a short time freezing my fingers with video shots of the terrible conditions out there, I spend the afternoon in my St. Albans, Vermont home office, space heater switched on to max. (Resulting video from when I almost froze my fingers is at the bottom of this post)

From my perch in the office, I watched an endless parade of steam devils on Lake Champlain in the distance.  Until almost dusk, that is, when it appeared the northern end of the lake was rapidly freezing over. 

I noticed the national media had its attention on Vermont yesterday. WCAX-TV reporter Melissa Cooney provided updates to CNN Friday morning from Burlington's icy waterfront. She seemed in remarkably good cheer, given the conditions out there.  

In the weather set up we've had, with strong blasts of northwest winds, the mountain tops tend to be coldest. And windiest. The summit of Mount Mansfield has spent several hours at least in the minus 30s. It looks like the wind gauge isn't working up there, though. 

On top of Mount Washington, New Hampshire, it was unimaginably brutal. At one point last night, the actual temperature up there was 46 below, with a wind of 96 mph gusting to 127 mph. That created a wind chill of 108 below!

That 108 below is believed to be the lowest wind chill on record for anywhere in the United States. 

Back down here in the low lands, the temperature only cooled off a few more degrees from last evening. That's because the core of the cold air - the Polar Vortex - was already starting to head off to the north and east before dawn today.

That's not to say it wasn't gawd awful bad out there this morning. Everyone in the valleys was in the mid teens to mid 20s below zero, in line with forecasts that been in place for days. It felt much better than yesterday, though, when I headed out, because the wind wasn't blowing so much. 

  We probably won't set any record lows in Vermont, though. The record low in Burlington today is 26 below, and the temperature had been hovering at 15 below for a few hours there as of 6 a.m.  Montpelier's record low today is 21 below, and they were around 13 below early this morning. And St. Johnsbury? Fughettabout! Their  record low on today's date is 32 below, and they were at least ten degrees warmer than that just before dawn today. 

However, record lows were set in southern New England, including at Boston, Providence and Worcester. Boston's low of 10 below is the coldest that city has experienced since 1957.

The fact  that our Polar Vortex is on its way out means - onward and upward!!

Temperatures got to work rising soon after the sun came up.  The wind is still stiff, but lighter than it was yesterday. The wind will continue to diminish. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington will very likely allow the wind chill warning to expire at 1 p.m. today.

By mid to late afternoon, almost everybody in Vermont will see temperatures above zero. Barely above, but above nonetheless.

Overnight tonight, temperatures will actually rise, not fall, and should be in the upper single numbers and teens above zero by dawn.  However, especially in the Champlain Valley, it will "warm up cold" as strong south winds add a wind chill bite to the air during the morning. 

However, by mid to late afternoon, many of us will hear the drip, drip, drip of water from the icicles hanging from the eaves of our houses. Yes, most of the warmer valleys will actually above freezing.

The Great, Brief Cold Shot of '23 will be over.

Video. Scenes of the Friday's insane chill around Burlington and South Burlington. Mostly of the steaming Lake Champlain, but other shots of people who did not look happy with the chill

Click on this link to view or if you see the image below, you can click on that to watch as well:

A Rude Interruption To Spring Is Coming For Us On Sunday

Person in this photo looks glum, probably because we're
going to sink into another period of winter cold 
Sunday through Tuesday

 Yesterday, I waxed poetic of sorts to the fact that springtime in Vermont comes earlier than it did decades ago due to climate change. 

I also noted wintry interruptions to these early springs also seem rougher than they once did. 

Case in point will be Sunday through Tuesday, with a quick shot of Arctic air arriving to remind us we live in the North Country. 

Though particulars of the forecast might change a bit, many parts of Vermont should get a couple or even a few inches of snow. Worse, temperatures will plunge to mid-winter levels. 

Here's the particulars:

We're starting this Friday morning relatively mild and rainy.  Mostly cloudy and seasonable air will linger through Saturday with scattered light showers here and there. Nothing to get excited about.  

On Sunday, the Arctic cold front arrives. A sort of, kind of mild start to Sunday will wilt under increasing northwest winds, and temperatures will probably fall during the day.  Snow showers will whiten the ground in the valleys. 

In the mountains, snow showers will stay pretty consistent through much of Sunday night, accumulating to several inches.

The real story will be the wind and cold.  The warmer "banana belt" towns will drop into the teens Sunday night. The colder towns will be in the upper single numbers. 

Highs on Monday will only reach the low to mid 20s for most of us. Strong northwest winds will continue from Sunday through Monday evening.  That will lower wind chills to at or below zero

There is nothing springlike about that forecast!  On the bright side, Monday will quite likely be the coldest day until late November or December. 

As harsh as the cold snap will hit, we probably won't have many record low temperatures. Around this part of March in 1923, we had quite a cold snap.  The record low of 5 below set that year for Monday in Burlington won't be challenged. Neither will the record for the coldest high temperature for the date, which was 13 degrees in 1923.

The records don't go back as far in Montpelier, so the Capital City does have a slim shot at setting a record for the coldest high temperature for the date on Monday. The current record is 19 degrees. The record low max temperature in St. Johnsbury is 24 degrees, so that's in play, I suppose.

Lots of us have daffodil shoots and other perennials just starting to come up.  These early plants do have a natural antifreeze in their system, so they should mostly survive this. 

Though the overall weather patter does not look super warm after this cold snap, things will improve.  We'll be closing out March and heading into April after all, so you can't sustain cold weather like we could a month or two ago. 

Next Tuesday should still be cold, with lows in the single numbers and teens and highs in the 30s. But it will probably warm at least temporarily to normal levels again by next Wednesday or Thursday. 

Arctic Blast, Then Rather Big Storm Still In The Cards Here In Vermont

Here's one depiction of how Monday's expected 
storm will look on a weather map. As you can see,
it will be large and complex. Note the forecast
path and set up of the storm will change as
we get closer to the event. 

As of early this morning, there's no real change to the forecast of that bitter Arctic air that's on the way. The broad brush forecast on the expected storm Monday is still on track, too. 

Let's get into the details.

It's pretty murky and icy and icky this morning after a night of very light snow, freezing drizzle and freezing fog. Main roads are pretty well treated, but secondary roads and sidewalks are probably icy in spots, so be aware of that. 

It will remain rather gray and blah today though it might brighten up some this afternoon. There could still also be a few patches of freezing drizzle or light snow. Enjoy today's heat wave - temperatures will be in the upper 20s and low 30s - because we won't see much of that in the coming days and weeks. 

DANGEROUS ARCTIC BLAST

That really intense storm is taking shape far off the East Coast this morning, as expected. This is NOT the one coming Monday, the one I'll get to a little further down in this post.  The storm headed toward Nova Scotia and Newfoundland will really pound those areas with heavy precipitation, strong, potentially damaging winds and storm surges.

Nothing like that for us, but the squeeze play between that storm and strong Arctic high pressure moving in from Ontario toward Quebec will really stir some gusty winds up for us.

Wind chills will become awful Friday afternoon and especially Friday night.  Don't be fooled if you're leaving home from work Friday morning.  The morning won't be all that bad, with temperatures in the teens to near 20 and not-yet-strong winds. 

By the time you get home in the late afternoon, north winds will be blasting from the north with gusts exceeding 30 mph, and the temperature will have fallen to the low single numbers. 

Stay home and hibernate Friday night.  Winds will continue to gust past 30 mph as temperatures fall through the single numbers below zero and into the teens below zero late. This would bring wind chills down to as low as 40 below. Exposed skin can develop frostbite within 10 minutes in those conditions.

And for the love of God bring all your pets indoors by Friday afternoon, even the ones that are used to being outside during the winter. Now is also a good time to plug any drafty areas in your house that could end with frozen pipes.

I'm also super worried about the homeless population in Vermont, the rest of New England and in Quebec. There might not be room for all of them, or some might be reluctant to go into crowded shelters due to Covid.  It will be extremely dangerous to be outside for any length of time Friday night. 

This past November, Vermont expanded the eligibility for emergency housing in motels during extreme cold, and I hope that will help.

Saturday won't be much better as the winds continue to blow, albeit at slightly lower speeds. A clear, subzero night is coming Saturday night, too.  

THE STORM

Sunday will be cold and quiet with clouds starting to increase in the afternoon especially. The system by Sunday will have spread a swath of snow southeastward through the Midwest. Snow and ice will be falling probably from Arkansas to North Carolina by then.

This storm will scoop up plenty of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, turn the corner and head northeast on a beeline to New England by Monday.

We still don't know the exact track of this thing, which is typical for a storm that's four days away.  Usually the heaviest snow is in a band to the northwest of the storm.  It's possible Vermont could be in that band, but we just don't know yet. It's too early to know for sure.  

It the storm goes further to the east, we miss out on the heaviest snow.  If it goes inland more than expected, the heavy snow band will be to our west in New York, and we could also get a brief period of mixed precipitation. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington also says we'll need to keep an eye out for the risk of strong, even damaging winds on the west slopes of the Green Mountains. That may or may not happen. Again, it depends on the track of the storm. 

After the storm, whatever happens with it, the pattern favors repeated shots of Arctic air coming into the Great Lakes and Northeast. This January is going to be an exception.  Most months over the past couple of years have been warmer than normal.  This January looks like it's going to be quite a bit chillier than average.  

Vermont Snow Confined Mostly To Mountains; Mid-Winter Cold Thru Weekend, Then.......

Our grill sits sadly in frigid weather this morning in St. 
Albans, Vermont, surrounded by big snow piles. The 
weather today makes it seem like spring is far away,
but we are expected to get a taste of it next week. 

A woke up this morning in St. Albans pleasantly surprised to see only a dusting of new snow on the ground.  

The anticipated snow did move into northern Vermont last night, but was more confined to the mountains than expected.   

To me, that's a very good thing. Let the skiers and riders have their snow, but it being March now, I'd just as soon not have any more.

Still, judging from web cams, it doesn't look like the snow overnight was nearly as widespread as expected. 

Bolton and Jericho, along the west slopes of the Green Mountains, often get a few inches of snow out of this type of weather situation, but  web cams only indicate a dusting at best this time

At least so far. 

The web cams also indicate as of this morning, it has pretty much stopped snowing in the mountains for now.    There seems to be less moisture in the atmosphere over us than originally forecast, which would explain the relative lack of snow.

Unfortunately, or fortunately, depending upon your point of view, it does look like another wave of snow will come through later today.

This will help make the storm total on the summits of the northern Green Mountains  likely exceed six inches, which is nice. 

Most valley locations will see only an inch or so of snow, total, with locally more along and north of Route 2.

The main story will be the cold weather today through the weekend. Blustery north winds will continue, and many of us won't get out of the teens for highs today.  Wind chills today and tomorrow will be in the single digits and teens below zero. It'll barely make it into the low 20s for many of us Saturday, and into the mid 20s Sunday with more sun.

Low temperatures Saturday through Monday morning will be in the single digits either side of zero.  All this makes it feel like spring will never get here. 

Or maybe it will! For fans of spring weather, it still looks we have dramatic changes coming up, at least for a few days next week. 

Monday will be better, still chilly with highs in the low to mid 30s. But there will be some sun, so it'll be OK.

Tuesday through Thursday will be the real blast of spring. Many of us will get into the 50s for highs, especially Wednesday and Thursday, at least as it looks now. 

For those of you, like me, who are getting slightly claustrophobic with the snow still on the ground, we will lose a fair amount of it. Not all of it, mind you, but it'll be a start. 

I imagine there will be some spectacular sap runs in the upcoming week, too. For all you maple sugar makers out there, get your sleep this weekend. You're going to be terribly busy next week. 

We'll have to watch and see how much rain comes along with the snow melt toward the end of next week. A little rain won't be a big deal.  But if storms coming in from the west end up dropping a lot of rain, we could be in some flood trouble with the snow melt going on as well.

As Expected, Tiny Little Storm Over-Performs Northern New York/Vermont

Back to winter driving conditions in St. Albans, Vermont
this morning with a fresh two inches of new snow

 Really back to winter in northern New York and Vermont as we recover from a quick cold blast and now, in a few places, several inches of snow.   

A small storm and some disturbances in the west to northwest flow are depositing the snow in northern areas. A few places in the mountains, especially north of Route 2, could end up with three to five inches of snow out of this. 

NWS South Burlington said web cams already indicate a good four or five inches of snow up at Stowe Mountain Resort. 

In the northern Champlain Valley, I had already collected 1.8 inches of new snow at my place in St. Albans, and it was still snowing lightly. 

For northern areas, this is a nice snow freshener for late season winter sports enthusiasts. 

South of Route 2, in the valleys, this is, by contrast, something of a nothingburger. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington honed into this little over-performer with their forecasts yesterday, going as far as hoisting a winter weather advisory for part of northern New York overnight and into today. 

The initial wave of snow has passed, but additional energy in the flow will produce a little more snow - maybe a dusting to an inch in the valleys and another two inches of snow in the mountains. Valleys south of Route 2 should expect very little snow today, but the Green Mountains all the way to southern Vermont might expect an inch or two.

This obviously isn't Storm of the Century, but it's a reminder that yeah, we're in March, but winter sure ain't over yet. 

You'll alsoknow that by the temperature and wind chill over the next few days, too. 

High pressure in Greenland is trapping a storm in place in eastern Canada. That, in turn, is trapping another Arctic high pressure area sort of near Hudson Bay, Canada. 

The result will be persistent blustery northwest winds coming down on New England through Saturday.  Today will be the warmest of the bunch, getting as high as near normal mid-30s in the warmer valleys. 

Then, we suffer through high temperatures in the 15-25 degree range through Saturday, with lows in the single numbers. Throughout that period, 10 to 20 mph northwest winds, with higher gusts, will keep us wind chilled. 

Little disturbances in this air flow keep us at risk for snow showers through Saturday.  As usual, it won't amount to much in the valleys, but the mountains could pick up a few inches of additional fluff Thursday through Saturday. 

Don't whine too much.  This weather pattern with the so called Greenland block and cold air for us in New England is very common for March. 

This blocked up weather pattern will start to untangle itself starting Sunday. It'll still be cold Sunday, but the winds will be lighter. By Monday, it'll start to feel warmer. Long range forecasts hint at a genuine thaw by next Tuesday. 

Loud Night Leads To Frigid Morning In Vermont

Strong winds affected all of New England last night. At my
house a large wreath was blown off the side of the house
and some small branches are down, but in Boston, seven
stories worth of scaffolding blew down. 

 I often refer to "Arctic blasts" when we get a winter cold wave and last night described the scenario as perfectly as possible.  

The frigid air rushed in amid wind gusts of more than 50 mph through much of Vermont. I went to bed last night hearing the woods behind my St. Albans, Vermont house absolutely roaring amid the gusts. 

March winds indeed! 

Those gusts were strong statewide, the strongest in months. Burlington topped out at 53 mph and 51 mph in Montpelier. I'm sure some spots were even windier, especially along the east slopes of the Green Mountains, where the northwest winds could get momentum going down those slopes. 

The strong wind gusts affected all of New England, New York and southeastern Canada, causing power failures, tree damage and whiteouts in some areas with blowing snow. 

In Vermont, nearly 8,000 homes and businesses had no power at around 10 p.m. last night as the strongest winds blew through. That number was down to about 1,000 by 6 a.m. today.

In some spots, especially in central and southern Vermont, snow squalls continued last evening. At one point, Springfield, Vermont was at zero visibility in snow and blowing snow with gusts to 46 mph. 

As of daybreak, winds had diminished slightly, but were strong and gusty.  With temperatures near zero now, wind chills are brutal, so work that into your wardrobe decisions as you head out this morning 

Those wind chills are in the teens and 20s below zero through this morning, so it's not the day to spend a lot of time outdoors. 

Especially in the mountains.  I know pretty much none of you were planning on heading to the top of Mount Washington, New Hampshire, this morning, but for the record, at one point it was 26 below, with winds of 110 mph gusting to 117 mph and a wind chill of 80 below.

Definitely not my kind of weather. 

Winds could still be strong enough to blow down a few more branches and wires through mid-morning, especially along the east slopes of the Greens.

The wind will continue to slowly wane this afternoon as the sun starts to reappear, but it will still be blustery and cold. Temperatures in some spots won't get past 20 degrees in some spots. 

A weak storm coming through tonight and tomorrow might turn out to be a bit of an over-achiever in terms of snow. Sure, it doesn't have much moisture to work with, but it still appears to have enough oomph to squeeze out one to three inches of snow, mostly north of Route 4. 

It'll stay wintry for several days as we stay under a northwest flow from Canada.  Early signs suggest a warmup early next week. 

New England Cold Wave Sets In, Wind Chills Make Us Shiver

Morning atmosphere outside my place in St. Albans, Vermont
has that cold, icy look associated with nasty winter Arctic blasts.

I've lived in Vermont all of my life so far (58 years!) and generally speaking, if I had a complaint about Vermont it was too little summer, too much winter. 

Lately, that's been turned on its head. The past few summers in the Green Mountain State have been a little too hot and humid for my taste. Which is definitely a departure from what I'm used to. 

Meanwhile, I'm no fan of winter, at least in my old age. My enthusiasm for epic snowstorms and weeks of subzero cold have very much waned in the past couple of decades. I like mild weather. 

I'm a little stunned to feel myself thinking this winter has been too much on the warm side. At least until now.  Though I can't say I love the current Arctic outbreak, at least it gives me a semblance of how things are supposed to be.

Thursday afternoon, I had some chores to do outdoors at my property, in the northwestern corner of Vermont. At the time the temperature was dropping, and a northwest wind was picking up. The air was bracing and invigorating. Given the lack of cold air this winter, it felt, plainly, very good. 

I guess I should be careful of what I wish for, as the Arctic chill, as forecast, has intensified as of this morning. So enough of my cold weather soliloquy. 

Temperatures at dawn today were right around zero for pretty much all of us. A steady north wind has wind chills in the teens below zero. That state of affairs will continue all day. 

If you think it's bad here in the valleys, check out the mountains. When a piece of the polar vortex breaks off and passes over us, temperatures really decrease with height, and the wind up there howls. 

Last evening's forecast discussion from the National Weather Service in S. Burlington told the story: "Summit locales will see extreme cold during this period with the highest summits seeing wind chill values exceeding -40 degrees."

Well, that forecast sure verified. As of 6 a.m. today, the summit of Mount Mansfield was 13 below, with a wind screaming at 52 mph, gusting to 64 mph.  That translates to a wind chill of 50 below. Ugh. 

In my opinion, at least, today's not the day for a ski trip.  It will warm up in the next couple of days, so be patient. 

Speaking of being patient, careful on the roads today. Because the piece of the polar vortex that's on top of us is really an upper level low, it's able to squeeze out some fine snowflakes, despite the dry air. 

That's enough to make the roads a little slick. It's too cold for salt to work.  The roads might look relatively bare, but the tiny snowflakes in this kind of Arctic chill tend to form a little black ice. Also, bridges over rivers really freeze because steam and moisture rising from the water ice up on the spans.

It seems like every time we have a cold snap like this, we have crashes on the Winooski River bridge near Burlington, leading to big traffic tie ups on Interstate 89. I'm kind of expecting that today. (I'm working from home these days, so I can gloat that I don't have to deal with that)!

As we said yesterday, Saturday will be a little better as we have a shot at a little more sun, plus the wind won't be as strong. Saturday night will be the coldest of the nights, because partly clear skies and lighter winds will allow temperatures to drop quickly.'

Sunday looks quiet and cold too.

Now, about that storm: At this point, it's still looking like the heaviest snow with this thing will fall in southern New England. Though there's always a chance this thing could take a jog north and get us here in Vermont, too.

Enough moisture looks like it will wrap itself around the storm to the north and west to suggest Vermont will get some light snow out of this at least, with the best chances across the southeastern half of the state.

Naturally, this forecast will get updated as we come closer to the event.