Almost Nicest Stretch Of March Weather Imaginable, But Watch Those Fires!

With wet ground from some morning rain, I got a burn 
permit for my brush pile in St. Albans, Vermont yesterday.
It's going to be dry, though for the next week, so fires
like this will probably be a bad idea for awhile.

 Yesterday morning in St. Albans, Vermont we got a few drops of rain, enough to wet down the dry brush around town.   

Which allowed me to get a burn permit for my brush pile, which I took full advantage of.  Had I missed yesterday's opportunity, I wouldn't be able to get a burn permit for quite awhile.

The reason: The continuing dry weather across Vermont this March.  We only managed a few hundreds of an inch of rain in most places across the state yesterday. We're already more than an inch shy of normal in the precipitation department this month. 

March in Vermont is usually characterized by cranky, often downright lousy weather.  March is almost always the month of wet snow, rain, ice, wind and fleeting, false promises of spring. 

Not this year. We've already had a number of pleasant, spring-like days and we're about to get a bunch more. 

Sure, today is cold.  Nothing outlandish for March, but chilly enough for your winter overcoat. Get through today and tonight, and you'll be rewarded with bright spring weather through about Wednesday at least. 

Temperatures will get well into the 40s Saturday, then well into the 50s daily through Wednesday. There will probably be a few low 60s thrown in here and there from time to time during that period 

This will make this March in Vermont a rare, generally pleasant spring month. The only March I can think of that exceeds this in terms of niceness is the weird, weird March of 2012.  That was the record warm month that peaked with five incredible days in a row with temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s.  

There's nothing like that on the horizon this month, but still, this week will be a pretty rare one. 

Of course, this dry weather brings us back to that brush and wildfire risk. We've already had one episode this month with an eight-acre brush and grass fires disrupting traffic along Interstate 89 in Colchester, Vermont March 15. 

With the last of the snow rapidly disappearing, except in the mountains, this dry weather can really touch off some fires. 

If you have brush piles to burn, like I did, I wouldn't even bother asking for a burn permit until after it finally rains. (That could happen at the end of next week, we'll see). 

You idiots who throw lit cigarette butts out of your car window should never do that, but especially with the upcoming dry weather. 

Bottom line: Enjoy the upcoming great weather, but without open flames, please. 

Southern Tornado Update; And Back To A Vermont/New England Forecast

Brick house destroyed by a tornado Wednesday in 
Alabama. Photo by Roger Bean

 It could have been a lot worse down in the South yesterday.  

Those tornadoes and severe storms materialized as forecast, but fortunately, most of the tornadoes seemed to go over sparsely populated rural areas.  

It does so far feel like there were slightly fewer tornadoes than some of the expectations, which of course is great. 

The result was a fair amount of damage, but so far at least, no fatalities have been reported. Which is actually great news, as a high risk tornado day usually leads to deaths. So far, two injuries have been reported.

Still, social media is showing lots and lots of homes and businesses damaged or destroyed in the tornadoes, so there really is significant destruction.

The hype was justified and I think people did a great job as meteorologists did an equally great job with tornado warnings so people were able to get into their safe spaces. 

So far, there are 24 confirmed tornadoes from yesterday, but that number will go up as National Weather Service meteorologists examine damage paths. Additionally, more tornadoes are certainly a good possibility in the Carolinas today. 

There certainly was a super-abundance of supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes in Mississippi and Alabama yesterday.  Laurel, Mississippi endured four separate tornado warnings on Wednesday. A warning means a tornado is imminent or occurring. Four separate rotating supercell thunderstorms rolled over Laurel Wednesday. Two of them produced actual tornadoes, but they touched down away from the center of town. 

There's evidence of some strong tornadoes from yesterday, too. One brick home was leveled to its foundation, most of the structure and its contents blown far away from where they were before the twister. 

The storm system responsible for creating the tornadoes has moved out of Mississippi last night and will be out of Alabama later this morning.  

While the threat of tornadoes in the Carolinas today with this storm is not quite as high as it was yesterday further west, it seems inevitable that there will be a few twisters, so it's not done yet.

After today, it doesn't look like there will be any storms that will produce a lot of tornadoes for at least the next week or so. 

UP HERE IN NEW ENGLAND

While the South was dealing with tornadoes yesterday we up here in Vermont and the rest of New England enjoyed a gorgeous early spring day.

The parent storm that produced the tornadoes is bringing badly needed rain to the Mid-Atlantic States and as far north as southern New England. In central and southern New England, that rain will switch to snow tonight, mostly just amounting to one to three inches, with a few spot totals a bit more than that. 

Up here in Vermont, a cold front was producing a little spotty light rain early this morning. This rain will continue for at least part of the day, but start to end north to south as the cold front sinks south. That will shunt the bulk of that storm system to our south. 

South of Route 4, however,  that storm will clip that area with additional light rain into this evening, ending as a period of snow. Up to a quarter inch of rain is coming to to southern Vermont. 

After that, we get a quick shot  of wintry air, the kind we've been getting all month between the periods of spring weather.  It'll drop into the single numbers and teens by tomorrow morning. Friday's high temperatures will be at or below freezing, and then we get another early morning Saturday in the single numbers and teens

Then it will warm up, and stay warm for the weekend and most of next week.  It'll get well into the 40s Saturday, and daily highs will be in the 50s Sunday through Wednesday. 

Since the air mass will be so dry, especially Saturday through Tuesday, nighttime lows will get below freezing, which will keep the maple sugaring going nicely.

This dry air is a problem, though. As I've previously mentioned, it's dry, this month is super dry and the very light rain this morning won't make much of a difference. 

With most of the snow melted in the valleys and more snow disappearing in the coming days, last year's weeds, brush and such is drying out.  Brush fires are definitely a risk starting as soon as Sunday and continuing into next week. 

Luckily, it doesn't look like it will be particularly windy during the upcoming dry weather.  

Dangerous Day: Strong, Long-Lasting Tornadoes Menace Large Area In South

Area in pink is under a high risk of tornadoes today and tonight
The broad red area surrounding the pink also has a 
significant risk of strong tornadoes.

UPDATE: 12:30 p.m. EDT

The National Weather Service at this out is expected at any minute to issue a special type of tornado warning called a Particular Dangerous Situation warning.

This is reserved for the rare times when a weather hazard is especially, super life-threatening.

All the ingredients seem to be coming together, especially in Mississippi and Alabama, for a prolonged period this afternoon and tonight with a strong risk of intense, long-lasting tornadoes. 

There is one area in particular along the Mississippi/Alabama border where 

there is a 45 percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles within a given point in that zone.

That is really an extraordinarily high risk, among the top probabilities on record. This is only the sixth time in the past 15 years in which there was such a high risk. 

I honestly don't know how we're going to get through today and tonight without tornado fatalities. Just praying the strongest, longest lasting tornadoes stay out over rural, open country. 

This tragic show should begin by mid-afternoon. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

Thunderstorms, a few of them severe, were roaming around parts of Texas and Oklahoma early this morning, clueing us in to what will be a dangerous tornado day in many southern U.S. states.  

I already saw at least one tornado warning in Arkansas before dawn today. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) pasted a high risk zone for severe weather, including the likelihood of strong, long-tracked tornadoes in an area centered around Mississippi.  

The SPC has five alert levels for severe storms, "high" obviously signaling the biggest danger.  

High risk storm alerts are fairly rare, only being issued on average once or twice a year. 

A broad area encompassing most of Alabama, much of Louisiana and Arkansas and southwestern Tennessee is in almost as strong a risk for large, dangerous tornadoes today and tonight. 

The risk is so great that tornado shelters are opening for people in Mississippi and Alabama today.  The governor of Alabama has already declared a state of emergency ahead of the storms. This move activates emergency response centers, among other things. 

A number of school districts have either shut down classes for the day or will have early dismissals.  They don't want kids in vulnerable schools, or worse out on the highway in school buses, during tornadoes.

People are also being urged to have bicycle or motorcycle helmets in their safe spaces to wear if debris falls during a tornado.  It's also helpful to have an air horn with  you.  If you can't get out, rescuers will find you if you're blowing that horn. 

If you have friends and relatives in the South, let them know now about the risk, especially if they tend not to be weather aware. 

THE POVERTY FACTOR

As meteorologist and severe storms expert Stephen M. Strader pointed out on Twitter last evening, the highest risk of tornadoes coincides with a zone where there is a lot of poverty. Strader calls the situation "a recipe for fatalities."

Think about it. People who have money live in sturdier homes, often with basements where they can take shelter in a tornado. They have many ways to receive tornado warnings, such as weather radios, phone apps and big screen TVs. They can move temporarily into a hotel if their home is damaged. They have insurance. They have sick leave at work, so on a stormy day, they can hunker down. 

Many poor people live in flimsy structures, often mobile homes. They might not have access to weather radios  or phone apps.  The areas under the gun today and tonight in Mississippi and Alabama has some of the highest concentration of mobile homes in the nation.

People who live in mobile homes are being urged to leave now, and go to tornado shelters or to friends and relatives who live in sturdy buildings. 

However, low-wage people often aren't allowed to take time off from work, or don't get paid if they don't show up. Somebody's got to take care of the kids. They don't have the money to gas up the car and waltz into some shelter. So, they'll take their chances and stay put in their mobile homes.

There's Strader's recipe for fatalities.  This is all another excellent argument in favor of a living wage for Americans. 

MULTIFACETED DANGER

A lot of other factors make today and tonight's expected tornado outbreak dangerous. 

The storms will come in multiple waves. Mississippi is expecting three rounds of dangerous weather. Round one is early this morning, as there already is a tornado watch in effect for northern Mississippi as dawn breaks.

Another much more significant threat of powerful supercell thunderstorms with tornadoes this afternoon, and another round of powerful storms and likely tornadoes tonight. 

The forward motion of the storms today and tonight will be quick. So that means less lead time between the time warnings are issued and the moment when the tornado hits. 

Risk for more damaging tornadoes continues tomorrow,
especially for the area depicted in red

Since there will be multiple areas of dangerous storms happening all at once, who's getting hit where and who's in danger at the moment will be confusing, especially for the public who might not know which county they live in, or exactly where the warning is. 

The National Weather Service and local meteorologists do a fantastic job with warnings, but they have only so much control over how people react to the warnings. 

As I've pointed out before, when people receive tornado warnings, it's human nature to seek visual confirmation a tornado is coming.  Do you see a funnel cloud? Is there debris in the air? When you get a tornado warning, you're not supposed to go out and look for the twister. But people do.

In this weather situation, common in the South, the tornadoes are often hidden behind dense bursts of rain, so you can't see them.  There's a lot of trees and hills in the South, so that blocks the view of oncoming tornadoes, too. 

As I noted yesterday, many of the strongest tornadoes with this likely outbreak will hit well into the night, when people are sleeping.  It's harder to warn people of danger at that hour. 

The threat of significant tornadoes will continue tomorrow as the storm system heads east.  The biggest threat for those tornadoes will be in fairly heavily populated areas of the Carolinas and Georgia.

Up Next: Dangerous Tornado Outbreak In South

At this point, areas in red are most at risk for strong,
dangerous tornadoes Wednesday and Wednesday night

A widespread outbreak of tornadoes and severe storms looks like it's about to hit the South and this one could be especially dangerous. 

It appears the ingredients are coming together for some long lasting supercell thunderstorms capable of producing long-lasting, strong tornadoes.  

They'll hit an area that's populated more densely than the Plains. Worse, many of the worst storms and tornadoes might hit late at night, when people are sleeping and otherwise unaware of potential danger. 

This outbreak looks to be widespread, too. It'll extend from Texas and Oklahoma today, and reach its peak Wednesday and Wednesday night in Mississippi, Alabama, and parts of Arkansas and Tennessee. On Thursday, more dangerous storms and tornadoes are likely in the Carolinas and Georgia. 

It is impossible to know how many tornadoes, how strong they will be and where exactly they'll hit more than a few hours before the event.  Unfortunately, though, this one could prove fatal for some. It's that dangerous.

A tiny foretaste of what's to come hit relatively rural areas near Kansas City yesterday, damaging about 20 homes.

Later today and especially tonight, storms will fire up from Kansas to Texas.  A squall line will develop, and there's a chance that some rotating storms along this line could produce a few tornadoes.

The real show starts Wednesday, though. 

The day will start with ongoing storms, some strong, in parts of Arkansas, and eastern parts of Oklahoma and Texas. But that's not the real problem.

According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, new storms will fire up in Arkansas, east Texas and maybe Louisiana.  Strong winds aloft, and a strong tendency for the wind to change direction with height, will quickly set off some rotating supercell thunderstorms in the afternoon. 

Given the forecast atmospheric conditions, there's a risk of strong, long-lasting tornadoes in eastern Arkansas, and parts of western Tennessee and Mississippi. 

Then, it could get even worse. Usually, thunderstorms wane after dark and the sun's heat goes away, causing instability to decrease,

In this case, though, according to Storm Prediction Center meteorologists, winds aloft will get even stronger, and that tendency for winds to change direction with height will increase, overcoming any loss of instability. 

Which means Alabama could be under the gun for strong tornadoes, many of which could hit late at night. People are sleeping at that hour and might not hear tornado warnings. People there being urged to have several, loud ways to receive tornado warnings in their bedrooms overnight, with NOAA weather radios and phone apps set to blaring sound levels. 

Legendary Alabama meteorologist James Spann is already urging Alabamans to be prepared. The city of Tuscaloosa, devastated by a tornado in the 2011 Super Outbreak, has already activated its emergency command center. People are taking this really seriously. 

The storms will roll on into the Southeast Thursday, and probably become re-invigorated during the day in Georgia and the Carolinas. More strong tornadoes are possible in this heavily populated region of the nation too. 

I'm sure we will be hearing plenty more news about this severe weather outbreak in the next couple of days. It's possible that this outbreak will be less than currently advertised, but that's unlikely.  Southerners are wise to stay vigilant throughout the next couple of days. 

New Jersey Wildfire Seemed Almost Like California Disaster

 A large wildfire in New Jersey of all places destroyed a couple
businesses, slightly damaged two dozen homes, critically
injured a firefighter and shut down part of the Garden
State Parkway on Sunday 

UPDATED 3/17/21:

Video added to the bottom of this post shows just how chaotic the wildfire was.

Smoke and the sound of sirens, helicopters and firefighting aircraft filled the air.  Traffic backed up as bewildered motorists encountered thick smoke, fire trucks, detours and flames.

The fire burned through a classic urban/forest interface.  One large commercial structure was entirely destroyed. 

Spot fires broke out everywhere around and in home and business landscapes.   Mulch, hay bales, fencing and other material burst into flames at Home Depot. 

Judging by the looks of things, this barely avoided becoming much worse.   There could have been hundreds of homes and businesses lost had the firefighting effort been not as robust as it was, or had winds been a little stronger, or.... Anyway, check out the video at the bottom of this post from Jersey Shore Fire Response.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

This will sound like a headline out of California, but this is New Jersey yesterday: 

A wildfire raced through 170 acres, damaging about 30 homes and businesses amid dry conditions that threaten more fires today. The fire also closed part of the Garden State Parkway. 

All this happened Sunday around Lakewood and Brick, New Jersey.  Strong winds and very dry conditions rapidly spread the flames. 

When first reported early Sunday afternoon, it covered less than half the size of a football field. Within minutes it began roaring through dry pine forests mixed in with densely populated neighborhoods and commercial districts.

One firefighter suffered critical injuries during the battle against the blaze.

All told, though, the destruction could have been worse. As NJ.com reports:

"Brick police announced evacuations in the Brick Lake Park area and several stores and a hotel along Route 70 at about 4 p.m. At about 6:30 p.m., police alerted residents they could return to their homes. Brick Mayor John Ducey told local media that 29 homes were damaged in Brick Lake Park, three that were uninhabitable."

A commercial building was also destroyed, and another damaged. 

People near the fire who were not evacuated did something more familiar to Californians than residents of the normally soggy east: They put important papers and valuables in their cars to they could bail out quickly if the flames got too close. 

Winds gusted to 40 mph and the humidity was a very low 20 percent at the time of the fire. The fire burned through last night and was only partly contained, so it still represents a threat today. 

New Jersey is once again under a Red Flag Warning for fire danger today. Gusty winds continue, along with very dry conditions. 

Southern New Jersey had its 14th consecutive day without precipitation Monday, a new record for March.  This time of year is usually stormy and wet along the East Coast. 

The Northeast has had an especially dry and windy March so far, raising concerns about fire danger all the way through New England. Brush fires have so far this month been reported as far north as Massachusetts and Rhode Island. 

As I noted in a post yesterday, if this weather pattern continues, fire danger could definitely rise in Vermont later this month and April.

It might have already started. This afternoon, traffic was disrupted along Interstate 89 in Colchester, Vermont while crews battled a relatively small, but real brush fire along the highway. 

Video of New Jersey wildfire, from Jersey Shore Fire Response:

Satellite Images Show How Fast Snow Melted Last Week

First satellite photo Sunday, March 7

There's been an unusual number of sunny days over New England this March, which means visible satellite images have been pretty stunning as they show how the early spring landscape has changed in and around Vermont. 

I've had fun in the past week watching the snow melt from way on high, thanks to the National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont. 

Especially last week, when a warm spell, peaking with record high temperatures last Thursday, really did a number on the snow cover.  We'll walk you through the images, below, because they're pretty neat to follow.

In each photo, click on them to embiggen them and make them easier to see. (Fun side note: "Embiggen" is an official word, says Merriam-Webster).

The first shot, at the top of this post, was taken  Sunday, March 7.  All these satellite are real color photos, not enhanced. It was still cold that day, and all of Vermont had a snow cover. You can see bare ground encroaching on the southwestern tip of Vermont from near Albany, but everything was pretty still white. 

Snow extended into most of central and western Massachusetts and western Connecticut

A large part of Lake Champlain (dark blue) still had open water, but that white you see in the northern reaches of the lake is snow-covered ice. The Champlain Valley looks whiter because there's less forest and more open, snow covered fields.

The large darkish circle in northern New York is the Adirondack Park. The white flecks within that circle are snow and ice covered lakes and ponds. 

Next image is next It was taken on Tuesday, March 9. 

As you can see in the satellite photo, northern Vermont is largely obscured by what are known as gravity wave clouds. You know how in a river, when flowing water goes up and over a rock, you see a series of "echo" waves in the water downstream from the rock. 

Same thing is happening here. There's probably an area of rising air in the St. Lawrence Valley of southern Quebec that's forcing the fast moving northwest wind up and over that patch of rising air. The northern Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains are also making air go up and over them, contributing to these waves.

It doesn't really matter that we can't see most of northern Vermont. Not much has changed on the ground between Sunday and Tuesday.

In southern Vermont, you can now see bare ground sneaking into far southwestern Vermont - it got up to 48 degrees in Bennington that day. Snow is disappearing fast from much of Massachusetts and Connecticut. 

The next satellite photo was taken Friday, March 12

The day before had brought those record high temperatures and when this photo was taken early Friday afternoon, it was still sunny and warm just ahead of a cold front coming down from Quebec.

The changes - as you can see - are dramatic from just two days earlier. The entire Champlain Valley has gone from white to brown as the snow there pretty much all melted. The dark blue of Lake Champlain has expanded as ice broke up.

If you look at the far northern end of the lake, you can see a light blue where St. Albans Bay is. The ice has weakened, the snow has melted off it, there's standing water on top of it, so you get the light blue. 

The higher elevations across the region are still snow covered.

If you look carefully in southwestern Vermont between Rutland and Bennington, you can see a very narrow string of brown between the white snow of the hills. That narrow brown string is the valley floor along Route 7 between the Taconic Mountains to the west and the southern Greens.

The brown gap of snow-free ground widens around Rutland, and you can see the valley that holds Route 4 heading west to Fair Haven is brown.  You see a circle of snow just north of Route 4 before you get to the brown Champlain Valley.

That whitish circle is the northern extent of the Taconic Range, specifically Hanley Mountain and the wonderfully named Grandpa's Knob near West Rutland. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington's website has satellite views of the Northeast in all different modes of seeing satellite images. On the left side of the National Weather Service satellite page is the GeoColor, which during the day gives you the real-color images you see in this post.  This, to me, is probably the most fun part of the NWS/South Burlington website. 

On that page, you can zoom in on different areas, and really look at some cool cloud patterns when they develop.  

If, for example, there's an odd cloud not too far away from your location - say an isolated thunderstorm or those wave clouds I mentioned above - you can then go outside and compare the satellite view versus the real view. 

Though there is a slight delay. The cloud you see on satellite might have moved on by the time you get outside and look. It's still worth a shot, though. The image updates once every five minutes, so that's a pretty good turnaround time. I've had great luck with checking the satellite than going immediately outdoors to see what it looks like from the ground. 

On clear days, you can also watch the change of seasons.  Where the snow is melted, it's brown now, but you will see it go over to green as the trees leaf out. Orange hues will take over in the autumn during peak foliage.

Sometimes it all almost makes you want to hitch a ride on the satellite taking the photos. 

Confirming That Global February Was "Cooler" But Still Historically Hot

On a global basis, February, 2021 was definitely warmer
than normal, but still the coolest February since 2014. 
Very cold areas in North America and northeastern Europe
drove the global average down a bit. 

A week or two ago I speculated that global average temperatures for February would be dragged down somewhat this year because of unusually cold weather in the United States and parts of Siberia.   

Sure enough, that happened, but regardless, February was still quite a bit warmer than historical averages. The global temperature for February as 1.17 degrees above average, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

That doesn't sound like much, but when you average out all the cold and warm spots the world came have in a month, that's actually pretty darn warm. 

Still, it was the coldest February on Earth since 2014.  Of the 142 years they've been keeping track of this, there have been 15 Februaries warmer than this year's. For the record, everyone under the age of 45 years old has never seen a February with global temperatures below average.

Judging from the maps the NECI put out with this data, it seems many of the cold spots were really cold and some of the warm spots were especially toasty. 

The obvious cold spots this February were much of North America,  Scandinavia and a good chunk of Siberia.

The really hot spots were large sections of Asia, eastern Canada and much of southern and western Europe.  

Two large scale weather patterns ganged and conspired to make this February a little colder than other recent second months. This amounted to a slight and temporary easing of climate change trends 

La Nina, a periodic cooling of the eastern Pacific Ocean, tends to cool the global temperatures. In the Northern Hemisphere, something called the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation took hold in February.   

That negative phase makes the jet stream much wavier. Deep dips in the jet stream in this case in North America and northeastern Europe caused extreme cold in these areas. That extreme cold was enough to help drive down overall global temperatures, if you average them out. 

The more negative the Arctic Oscillation, the colder it gets, especially in the winter in North America. This year tied with Februaries of 1978 and 1969 as the most negative. Both those years were notoriously cold in North America.  

The negative Arctic Oscillation pretty much worked itself out, so it's not helping to cause any kind of extreme weather. It's been weakly negative this month, which has been helping to produce some pretty chilly outbreaks around New England, but those have been interrupted by mild spells. 

Additionally, La Nina is beginning to show some signs of weakening.  There is a lag, though from when a La Nina fades to when that trend has an effect on global temperatures. 

Though it's anybody's guess, I don't think March will have the degree of slight global "cooling" that February had.  If I had to guess, I'd say it will be in the Top 10 warmest. 

We'll find out when those updated numbers come in somewhere around mid-April.