When Trees Aren't Great For Climate Change

A spruce tree growing in the Alaskan Arctic in a place
where it had been too cold for trees for many millennia. 
Photo by Roman Dial via Outside Magazine.

 Trees are usually heroes when it comes to climate change mitigation. 

They suck up carbon dioxide and spit out nice fresh oxygen. What's not to love? 

The only thing not to love is when climate change makes trees grow in the wrong place.  

The tundra in northern Alaska and other areas way up there, not far from the North Pole, aren't supposed to support trees. It's too cold. The summer growing season was always too short to allow trees. You just got low shrubs, grasses and sedges.

But as scientists are discovering, actual trees, mostly white spruce, are spreading north to places where no tree could have grown for the past 20 millennia or so

Roman Dial, an ecologist at Alaska Pacific University, has been working on this phenomenon. In 2019, he'd seen satellite imagery that showed odd shadows on parts of the tundra.  He flew out there, then hiked around, and what he saw confirmed what he suspected from the satellite pictures. There were trees growing in places where it used to be impossible for them to do so. 

As Wired reports:

"The journey confirmed what Dial suspected: That the shadows in the satellite images were in fact out-of-place trees that are part of a phenomenon known as Arctic greening. As the Arctic warms more than four times faster than the rest of the planet, that's bringing down ecological barriers for plants in the far north, and more vegetation is marching toward the pole."

The white spruce are marching north across the tundra at a rate of 2.5 miles per decade, faster than any conifer tree line that scientists have measured, says Wired.  

Scientists had not expected to see spruce trees this far north until many decades from now. The trees have been spotted in northern Alaska, north of the Brooks Range growing in a spot where trees have until now not grown for at least 20,000 years, before the last glacial maximum, notes Outside magazine. 

Researchers had also expected to find these Alaskan trees struggling at the outer edges of where they can grow, but many seem to be thriving. They're not big but still, they're healthy.  For example, they found one spruce that was about five feet tall and had been there for about 20 years. But its growth is accelerating. The spruce they examined, for instance, had tripled its height in the last five years. 

Here's why all this is bad, as Wired reports: 

"The white spruce colonists are likely warming the Arctic landscape, too. Normally snow cover makes these northern lands reflect the sun's energy back into space - in scientific parlance, the land's 'albedo' is high. But trees are darker, so they have a lower albedo and absorb heat, which warms the area. 'The albedo effect is the the big thing,' says Goetz. 'They absorb a lot more energy.'"

The trees also trap snow beneath them, out of the reach of the sun.  But that snow beneath the trees protects the winter frost and freezes from penetrating as far into the ground as they should. That makes melting permafrost more likely when it warms up in the summer. Melting permafrost releases carbon dioxide and methane, an even more powerful greenhouse gas. 

Which means the spruce trees are technically also aiding and abetting climate change in the winter, too.

This is yet another example of how climate change works in surprising ways, usually not good ways. I'm sure there's a lot of other oddball effects of the climate crisis I'm not aware of. I imagine scientists are aware of a lot of these, but probably not all of the scary effects of this global change. 

It's probably what keeps climate scientists up at night. 

 

 

Vermont Once Again Sits Out U.S./Canadian Weather Extremes

Pretty clouds and some fall foliage in South Burlington,
Vermont on Sunday. Extreme weather around the 
United States this week is avoiding Vermont

 We here in Vermont are facing a relatively cool October week, but nothing that out of the ordinary for the third week in October.  We're a bit of a rare exception.  

The weather is much more interesting almost everywhere else in the nation as temperature and precipitation extremes reign supreme.  Record cold, record heat, flooding and even a snowstorm are in the cards for many areas. 

A sharp cold snap for this time of year is unleashing Canadian air on a vast section of the nation's south and middle. Freeze warnings and frost advisories extend from Colorado to southern Ohio and on down to Alabama and Mississippi.

Quite a few record low temperature record will be set in this area over the next few days.  High temperatures will be near record low levels, too. Normally, it's in the upper 60s his time of year in St.Louis. They'll be lucky to get to the upper 40s today.

There's a decent chance Birmingham, Alabama could hit 32 degrees Wednesday morning. If it does, it will be the earliest freeze there in 109 years. 

Eastern Kentucky faces three consecutive mornings with temperatures in the 20s, definitely a rarity for them in October.

Way further north, there's actually a winter storm warning in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Lake effect snows there are dumping up to six inches of wet snow.  Winds are also gusting as high as 50 mph in that mess. 

Widespread record cold in the United States has been becoming increasingly rare with climate change.  Most months, we have far more record highs in the U.S. than record lows.  In July, August and September, there were at least ten times more daily record highs than record lows in the U.S.  That's the first time we had three consecutive months with that ratio since at least 1890. 

And, despite the cold week in the Midwest and South, there's still record heat to be found. In the Pacific Northwest and parts of western and northern Canada, the issue is record heat.  On Sunday, Seattle, reached 88 degrees, by far the hottest on record for so late in the season. Before Sunday, it had never been warmer than that after October 1. 

In Juneau, Alaska on Sunday, it was 62 degrees. Like the situation in Seattle, this was by far the latest in the season it has been so warm there. 

On Saturday Salem, Oregon reached a summery 92 degrees by far the warmest on record for so late in the season there, too.  Portland reached 87 degrees, breaking the record high for the date by seven degrees.

It's been at least 80 degrees in Portland eleven times so far this October.  Portland typically reaches 80 degrees in less than  half of all Octobers. 

Record heat has also been reported across British Columbia, Canada. 

Meanwhile, eastern Maine is bracing for the risk of flooding tomorrow.

The reason for all this chaos is what is known as an "amplified" jet stream. That means the usual bulges northward, and the dips southward in this jet stream are larger than normal. There's been a big ridge in western North America contributing to the heat.

On the front side that ridge, the jet stream takes a big dip into the middle of the United States. That explains all the cold weather there, since that dip is pulling cold air down from northern Canada.

Then, the jet stream takes a big northward swing off the East Coast. That brings tropical moisture northward. It'll miss most of the U.S., but clip eastern Maine, which explains the flood watch.

Here in Vermont, we're kind of in a sweet spot, though that doesn't necessarily mean glorious weather. We're a little too far east to get that cold blast directly. By the time the chilly air rounds the bend and starts coming at us from the southwest this week, the chill will modify into something that is just sort of cold.

A cold front will come through today and this evening with some light rain. A storm will form along that front and grab that Atlantic moisture I mentioned. But that will all be too far east to give Vermont all that much rain. It'll target eastern Maine instead. 

The jet stream is still showing signs of wanting to flip to a new arrangement toward next weekend and next week.  Signs are suggesting a northward bulge over the eastern United States, which would steer warmer than average and probably drier than average weather into our neck of the woods.

 

Nice Weekend Continues. Then A Chilly Week, But Does Indian Summer Follow

An orange forest on a nice Saturday yesterday in St. Albans,
Vermont. Despite the recent heavy rains, beautiful fall
foliage manages to linger in parts of the state.

 After that very soggy rainstorm Thursday night and Friday, it has turned out to be a delightful weekend across Vermont. 

It's true that the storm at the end of the week has muted the fall foliage, but it's still looking pretty spectacular in the Champlain Valley and in the low elevations of southern Vermont. Northern Vermont still has splashes of color here and there, too, so all is not lost. Not yet anyway. 

Today - Sunday - is essentially a rerun of Saturday except that it will be a little cooler, and there might be a few extra clouds the further northwest you go. Enjoy today, because it all goes downhill somewhat for the upcoming week. 

We're about to have the coolest week we've had in Vermont since April. If you hate cold weather, relax.  The chilly upcoming weather will be pretty typical for late October. 

The nippy weather that's in the forecast does not seem like it will be as cold as some earlier forecasts indicated. It might be also a little less wet and a little less, ahem, snowy than previously advertised. 

Scattered showers will linger, especially in the mountains Monday night through Tuesday night. It'll almost surely be cold enough on the summits to allow for snow.  Snow flurries might still extend down to some valley floors.  A couple days ago, I was more sure that many valleys would see their first snowflakes of the season. 

Now, I'm not so sure. Some will. In any event, it's not quite time to get your snow shovels out of storage.  

In any event, snow flurries aren't at all unusual this time of year. In the Banana Belt of Burlington, the average date of the first autumn snow flurry is October 15.  That first flurry typically comes earlier than that in much of the rest of northern Vermont.

Burlington's first snow flurry of the season has come as early as September 20 in 1956 and 1991.  The earliest first inch accumulation was on October 9, 1979 and the earliest three inches was on October 10, 1925.

I guarantee Burlington will NOT see an inch of snow, never mind three inches, this week. 

It'll stay cool and mostly dry for the second half of the upcoming week, (Highs within a few degrees either side of 50, lows near the freezing mark.)

I don't entirely trust long range forecasts, but for what it's worth, I'm seeing signs of a pattern change that would give us mostly warmer than normal temperatures for the last ten days or so of the month. 

No guarantees on this, and even if the weather pattern turns warmer, there would still probably be some chilly days thrown in that mix, but dare we say we could be up for an Indian Summer in a little over a week?

Van Gogh, Climate, Tomato Soup, Despair, Stupidity And Hope: Protest Stunts Reflect Nihilism And Backlash Risk

Climate activists threw tomato soup on a Van Gogh 
painting in a London gallery on Friday. Attention-
getting, yes, but probably not so effective messaging. 

 Among the many weird headlines on various news sites on Friday was the breaking news that some climate activists went into the National Gallery In London, uncorked two cans of Heinz tomato soup and threw the soup onto Van Gogh's painting "Sunflowers."

Then the two activists glued their hands to the wall. 

Yes, this is incredibly stupid in any scenario, and like probably everyone else, I'm at a loss as to how this will blunt the dangerous effects of climate change. 

As the Washington Post reports:

"'What is worth more, art or life?' one of the protesters shouted, her hand glued to the wall behind her. '..... Are you more concerned about the protection of a painting or the protection of our planet?'"

I'm being Captain Obvious here, but t's unclear how trying to destroy a work of art will save any lives that could be claimed by climate change. 

Don't get me wrong. It IS  appropriate for climate activists to make the fossil fuel industry and the politicians who support these industries uncomfortable. However, to be too literal, I don't think it's Van Gogh's fault that we are facing a climate crisis. 

The good news is "Sunflowers" was protected by glass, so it was unharmed, though the frame suffered light damage from the acidity in the tomato soup.  Six hours after the incident, "Sunflowers" was back on display in the National Gallery.

The Washington Post's report notes that the "Sunflower" attack was one of a series of climate protests that have targeted famous art.  I don't know why. 

If you want to do something about climate change, you need allies. You want to convince people the cause is important, that everyone should participate in efforts to wean ourselves away from fossil fuel.

The art attacks and other strange climate activist stunts, has the opposite effect of alienating potential allies. 

It's true these wacko climate moments do garner plenty of attention. Various video of the Great Van Gogh Tomato Soup Incident of '22 has garnered tens of millions of views on social media.

But how many people who watched the video became more sympathetic to the cause?  My guess is very few. In fact, I bet they had quite the opposite effect. People who might have been persuaded that climate activism might actually help the planet now might  incorrectly dismiss most climate change activists as kooks and attention seekers. 

There's research to back this up.  Michael Mann, a leading climate scientist, cited research from Stamford suggesting that bad or extreme messaging backfires. In the study's abstract, the researchers wrote:

"....we find across three experiments that extreme protest tactics decreased popular support for a given cause because they reduced feelings of identification with the movement."

This isn't at all to say that climate activism among youth is bad.  Most of the time, it's extremely helpful as many young people are creative, super smart and bring a lot of energy in the fight for climate change reform. 

Mann tweeted: "I love the passion of the youth climate movement - it has been a game changer, precisely because it has WON hearts and minds. Let's not forget that."

I completely agree with him. 

I'm not sure if Friday's tomato soup group was just looking for social media clicks, or they succumbed to despair.  I suspect the later, judging from public statements from the soup kids and their supporters. 

I thought Terri Mitchell's @Storm4Nosey defense of the pair was pretty representative. "There will be no art on a dead planet. Climate change will not just destroy the natural world, but everything that humans have ever created. No beauty, no culture, no past, no future no life. Nothing..... There won't be any beauty in the world if we allow the climate to be destroyed."

My response was, "So the solution is to try to preemptively destroy beauty before climate change does it?"

I worry about Mitchell's nihilism and that of the soup group. And that of the other despairing activists. The climate crisis is obviously an enormous foe, and everything needs to be done to stop it.  But this apparent need to try and destroy things before climate change gets a chance seems counterproductive. Why try to blunt climate change when all is already lost?

Climate scientist Peter Kalmus had a more nuanced, but still supportive take on the soup group, In a Twitter thread, he notes that the anger over the vandalism to the Van Gogh painting, which really caused no damage, is misplaced. In part, Kalmus writes:

"How tragic, that there is LITERALLY more outrage over this act that caused zero damage, than about fossil fuel executives lying, colluding, and blocking action for decades, locking in intensifying heat waves, flooding, fires, rising seas, collapsing crop yields and death? 

Kalmus continued: "These activists and their bold act of desperation shattered the collective sleepwalk, if for a moment. It stirred things up. It caused discussion. It shone a light."

I still worry that it might have caused the wrong discussion.  The climate crisis is so big that we need as many of us as possible to participate in a solution. Trying to damage a painting, sitting down and blocking roads (thereby making cars sit and idle, spewing more CO2 into the atmosphere) and other stunts turn too many people off. 

Why not turn our attention toward the fossil fuel executives that Kalmus refers to. And the politicians that aid and abet them.  And others would would deny the dangers of climate change, all for fun and especially profit?

Van Gogh had nothing to do with the climate change. I know it is hard for younger people especially to not succumb to nihilism and despair over the climate crisis?  But what choice do we have. Give up and throw soup cans, or do the real work of changing the world before it's too late.

I know many people, especially those younger than me are doing just that. Changing the world to save it. Let's join them instead of denying and destroying the beauty of the world that still exists.  

Vermont Rainfall Just As Heavy As Expected; Some Flooding Reported

After being bone dry or close to it throughout the summer
and early autumn, the "Woof River" a small stream near
 my St. Albans house, shows signs of life this morning
after heavy overnight rains. 

 As expected, it really poured overnight, with most everybody receiving at least an inch and a half of rain with several places easily going past two inches and counting.  . 

Specific rainfall reports were, as always, spotty very early this morning, and we'll get more details later. 

Just before dawn, moderate to heavy rain was still streaming north to south across Vermont. But that north/south chain of rain was ever so slowly shifting eastward. 

 It looks like rain was tapering off to light stuff in far western Vermont. You could see some blue sky far to the west over New York State.

 It'll take most of the morning for the super soggy weather to clear out of eastern parts of the state.

As such, a flood warning was issued at 8:24 a.m. this morning along the Green Mountains from east of Middlebury up to the Canadian border. Rain was still coming down at a good clip in this area as of 8:30 a.m. The flood warning continues to early this afternoon. 

Already, water was across the road on Route 118 in Eden near Belividere Pond and Mud Creek. I'm almost sure we'll receive a few more reports of flooding here and there as we go through the morning. 

As of 6 a.m. this morning, while it was still pouring in many areas, it was already clear that the heaviest rain was falling along the Green Mountains.  At that point, the highest rain totals included 2.77 inches near Smugglers Notch, 2.51 inches in Jeffersonville and 2.41 inches in Underhill.

Some spots that have already received close to two inches of rain could receive up to an inch more.  The flood watch has been lifted in far western Vermont but as of early this morning remains in effect along and north of Route 2 from the Green Mountains east. 

 Larger rivers are rising fast now. But they were so low before this storm that flooding along them is doubtful at best.  One river to watch early this morning is the Lamoille. Water levels were rising fast just before dawn near Jeffersonville, for instance, but still well below flood stage.

 Also as expected, the rain is even heavier in parts of the White Mountains in New Hampshire and in southwestern Maine. Flood warnings are up in those areas as rainfall totals might reach upwards of five inches there. 

The next shot at any really noticeable rain will come on Monday.  That storm won't be nearly as wet as the current one.  Most of us will see a half inch of rain or less out of that one  It still looks like snow showers could reach all the way down to valley floors around midweek.

Thursday Evening Update: Flood Threat Continues In Vermont/Rest Of New England

Expected rainfall for tonight's storm has increased a bit
in northern and eastern Vermont. Many of these areas
can expect two inches of new rain by midday Friday. 
So in 12 hours, about two-thirds of the normal
October allotment of rain should fall

We have a few tweaks to the forecast since this morning regarding the heavy rain that's coming in for tonight. 

As I write this at 5:30 p.m. Thursday, rain showers are finally beginning to increase in Vermont, though the main show will be later this evening and overnight.

One to three inches of rain is still in the forecast, with a few spots going past three inches. The main difference in the forecast is that the strong cold front responsible for the expected heavy rain is moving a little slower than originally thought. This would increase rainfall totals. 

The slower movement of the front is why today was actually kind of nice in Vermont. We only had a few light showers because that front is dawdling over New York State.

Because of that slower cold front, a flood watch was issued earlier today for most of Vermont outside of Grand Isle County because of this expected heavier rain. Any flooding that does get going will probably be fairly minor and not widespread.

But that's still a real danger since the heaviest rain and any flash flooding that does develop will happen at night. When you're driving along it's much harder to spot flooding and hit the breaks in time so you don't go into the water, or worse, a nasty washout. 

During the day today, there were some pretty good wind gusts, but in general, the wind wasn't as strong as it could have been.  Still, the wind was enough to take lots of leaves off the trees, and as the rain is moving in now, lots more will come down. 

Which means we're still looking at clogged storm drains and "leaf dams" causing problems in small streams, culverts, that kind of thing. If you have a storm drain in front of your house with piles of leaves over it, it might be a neighborly gesture to try to remove the leaves.  I don't know if the drains you clear will re-clog, but it's worth a shot. 

Forecasters are keeping an eye on areas east of the Green Mountains. A small storm off the Mid-Atlantic Coast is riding north to northwest along or just ahead of the cold front. This thing will probably move northward over New Hampshire late tonight and tomorrow morning, enhancing the rainfall. 

Flooding might end up being a little more of a concern east of the Greens.  South and east facing slopes of the White Mountains over in New Hampshire still see particularly at risk for some flash flooding. Rainfall in some area in the Granite State could reach six inches. Yikes! 

A carpet of leaves covered the ground in Taylor Park in 
St. Albans, Vermont Friday afternoon after gusty winds
took down many leaves from the sugar maples 
that grace the park. 

Main rivers around Vermont will see sharp rises with this storm. But their mostly low to begin with, so there shouldn't be any flooding along those. An exception is the Ausable River in New York. Forecasts indicate it might go over its banks a little bit. 

Rain will slowly diminish west to east over Vermont during the day Friday. Even though the fall foliage will be diminished after this storm, there still will be lingering color, especially in the warmer valleys. 

The weather this weekend will be pretty good, with some sunshine and near normal temperatures for mid-Ocrtober.

Overall, the big rains with this storm will put another dent in the lingering dryness underground in parts of Vermont caused by the lack of rainfall over the summer. That's one piece of good news. We did need some soaking storms this autumn and we seem to be receiving them. 

Another storm system seems likely to come along Monday, giving us a wet start to the week, but that storm won't be any kind of blockbuster.

It sill looks like by midweek, snow showers could reach valley floors in Vermont. Tis the season, right?

Update: Still Lots Of Vermont Wind/Rain Coming. Even Worse Elsewhere?

A sugar maple leaf fell from a tree yesterday in St. Albans,
Vermont and impaled itself on a piece of rusty metal. Ouch!
Lots more leaves will come down today and tonight due
to expected strong winds and heavy rain.

 You could really tell yesterday that foliage season was about to end in Vermont, except in the warmest valleys.  

Winds, as expected, gusted to between 20 and 30 mph.  No big deal, but that was enough to send blizzards of leaves falling from the trees. You could see a huge difference in some of the landscape between early morning and late afternoon.

You ain't seen nothin' yet, as Bachman-Turner Overdrive might tell us.

Winds were just beginning to increase as I wrote this during morning drive time. (Don't worry, I'm not driving. I'm at a desk in front of a laptop).

By afternoon, winds will increase further, especially in northern Vermont. Gusts will go over 30 mph in southern Vermont and could go as high as 50 mph in northwestern Vermont. A wind advisory is in effect until 11 p.m. tonight for Vermont generally north of Route 2, except in the far northeast corner of the state.

These winds could cause isolated power outages and blow unsecured objects around.  And will take down tons of leaves.

We're still expecting a hefty push of rain overnight and early tomorrow morning. A terrific fetch of moisture will come off the Atlantic Ocean tonight, giving most of us some heavy rainfall.  Given that the wet Atlantic air is coming from the east and southeast, the heaviest rain will probably be on east facing slopes of the Green Mountains and Adirondacks. 

Most places should see an inch or two of rain out of this, with a few locally higher amounts.

As I mentioned yesterday, these amounts aren't usually enough to cause flooding, but all those leaves that have fallen can clog drains, culverts and small brooks. That could lead to local flash floods. I also wonder if rainfall will over-perform a little bit on those eastern slopes, given the amount of Atlantic moisture pouring in.

Still, I don't think flooding in Vermont will be widespread, but it's something to keep an eye on. Especially with the leaf clogged storm drains in cities and towns. Streets that don't normally flood could.  You don't want to drive into those, as you don't know how deep the water really is. 

There's already two other areas in New England that have been targeted as potential bigger trouble spots with this setup.  One is southeastern New England, the first to get smacked by the moisture plume. First come, first serve, so there would be plenty of water available to come down as rain. There could be three to five inches of rain there in some spots.

The other, perhaps more dangerous trouble spot is the south and east slopes of the White Mountains in New Hampshire and the mountains of western Maine. That moisture fetch could produce three to as much six inches of rain there.  With those steep slopes, that's more than enough to cause some flash flooding. 

It'll generally clear up and turn into a nice Friday in most of Vermont, but some clouds and rain could linger in the Northeast Kingdome. 

After this system goes by, there's more coming, but they will all be much smaller than the system coming in tonight. Each cold front between Sunday and midweek will drop our temperatures further. 

And here's some news: By Wednesday, it could well be cold enough to bring snow showers all the way down to Vermont's valley floors.