Rare (For This Winter, Anyway) Subzero Cold Across Vermont

The sky looking west away from the sunrise at dawn today
in St. Albans, Vermont had that familiar look of a 
subzero morning in Vermont. Such mornings have
that distinctive salmon color near the horizon.
Mornings like today are becoming more rare in 
Vermont due mostly to climate change.

 You probably noticed it if you were an early riser. It was freakin' cold this morning across Vermont. 

Virtually everyone was below zero. Hey there, Bennington, you're a toasty exception. When I checked at around 6:30 a.m. you were a balmy 4 above zero. 

Island Pond got to at least 24 below this morning, and most places in central and northern Vermont away from Lake Champlain were in the teens below zero.

Burlington was at 6 below as of 7 a.m. This isn't record cold by any means, but it's a stinger. 

This is only the fifth subzero day in Burlington this winter, which is way below the long term average. 

We've been in a declining trend in subzero mornings in Vermont over the past several decades, thank sin large part to climate change. Whereas Burlington would usually see winters with at least 20 subzero days back in the 1960s and 1970s, most recent years have had between 5 and 15 such mornings. 

We might have more subzero mornings in Burlington this winter, but I imagine not too many.  It has been below zero there as late as March 29.  But the normal low temperatures are now gradually rising. The normal low in Burlington at the start of the month was 12 above. Now it's 17 degrees. 

To see more subzero chill, it will have to be much colder, relative to average than it would in January as we had into March. 

No below zero weather is in the forecast in Burlington at least through Friday, March 3, and probably beyond that. I suppose we might see brief spells in the rest of the first three weeks of March that could get us below zero in the Champlain Valley, but that seems somewhat unlikely at this point. 

Still, long range forecasts hint at below normal temperatures in the second, third and possibly fourth weeks of March, so it's not impossible to see more below zero weather before winter finally does call it quits, 

Of course places away from the lake can get below zero into April. (Ugh!) For instance, below zero weather happened in northern Vermont on April 5, 1953 and April 7, 1972.

I really hope history doesn't repeat itself in those instances. 

The Nation's Weather Is Wayyyy Off The Rails. Again. Details Here

Extremely rare snow on the coast of northern California
at the Carson Mansion in Eureka.
Photo via Twitter by Kenneth Pinkham. 

 The weather here in Vermont lately in the grand scheme of things was only moderately interesting this week.

 In many other places around the United States, it was off the charts wild. It makes Vermont look like the calmest oasis in the world. 

Temperatures in the nation Thursday ranged a whopping 137 degrees, from 35 degrees in Lyman, Wyoming to 102 in Falcon Lake, Texas. 

Plenty of areas are seeing weather not seen in decades or ever.  Let's go over the highlight reel. 

CALIFORNIA/WEST COAST

In sunny southern California, it's neither sunny, nor warm.  They're bracing for an epic, very oddly cold storm, the worst of which is sweeping in today and Saturday.

Up and down the California, high elevation highways are already closed, including the notorious Grapevine, which is busy stretch of Interstate 5 between Los Angeles County and the San Joaquin Valley. 

The high elevation stretch of the Grapevine sometimes gets shut down in the winter by snow, especially along a small section whose elevation rises to 4,000 feet.   This time, though, it's expected to be much worse up there since snow levels are expected to fall below 2,000 feet, which encompasses much more of the highway 

The Grapevine section of I-5 closed at 1:30 Friday morning, and officials have no idea when it will re-open. It was snowing hard at the 3,800 foot level of Interstate 5 this morning. 

Some snow, small hail and ice pellets have already pinged down in areas of southern California that haven't seen frozen precipitation in a decade or more. School children in Pasadena rushed outside to enjoy the spectacle of pea sized hail. 

A little snow dusted the famous Hollywood sign in L.A. early this morning. Even more snow might accumulate around that sign Friday night or early Saturday.

The cold storm is also volatile. The National Weather Service office in Los Angeles issued its first tornado warning in three years Friday morning. It was for an area southwest of Santa Maria. As of this writing, it's unknown if a tornado actually touched down. 

Several normally balmy California cities had record low high temperatures Thursday. These included 52 in Palm Springs, 54 in Newport Beach and 57 in Anaheim. Los Angeles also had a record low minimum of 41 degrees Thursday. We've had low temperatures at that level a couple times this winter in Vermont. 

Incredibly, a blizzard warning is up for mountains in Los Angeles County. (These mountains are as high as 8 to 9 thousand feet).

I was mistaken the other day.  This isn't the first time the National Weather Service office in Los Angeles has issued a blizzard warning for its forecast area. It's the second. But Thursday evening, the National Weather Service office in San Diego issued its first ever blizzard warning for the San Bernardino mountains northeast of the city. 

The lowest elevations in southern California are seeing heavy rain.  People have already been evacuated from portions of Ventura County as the rains are expected to cause flash floods, mudslides and debris flows. 

Further north, snow fell on the East Bay hills near San Francisco for the first time in gawd knows how many years. Higher elevations in those hills could see even  heavier snow tonight. Snow levels early today in the area were as low as 700 feet. Most areas in the Bay Area had rain, with embedded thunderstorms, hail and sleet.  

Rare snow also fell at the famed Hearst Castle in San Simeon, California. The castle is no more than 1,000 feet from the Pacific Ocean beach on a hill about half way between San Francisco and Los Angeles. 

Portland Oregon unexpectedly received 10.8 inches of snow Wednesday night, its second largest snowstorm on record.  "Worst case scenario" forecasts ahead of that storm only called for two inches at most. The surprise storm hit during rush hour, and people were stranded on snow clogged roads around Portland for seven hours or more. 

With clear skies and snow on the ground, Portland also reached a record low of 25 degrees Thursday morning. 

Further south, KTVU reported an inch or two of snow in Woodside, California, near Alice's restaurant. That area gets snow on average perhaps once a decade.

Several record lows were set out west, including 11 below in Denver and 13 below in Boulder, Colorado. Rawlins, Wyoming dipped to 25 below, exceeding the previous record low by a full 10 degrees. 

SOUTHEASTERN HEAT

While the West Coast shivered, it was summertime this week in the southeastern quarter of the United States. 

While some cold records are being broken in the West, the Southeast onslaught of record heat is absolutely astounding. 

Amazingly early blossoms this week in 
Washington DC. Photo via Twitter 
by Brad Herson

I don't know where to begin with all the heat records broken, especially Wednesday and Thursday. 

On Wednesday, Atlanta reached its all time high for the month of February at 81 degrees. Thursday, the low temperature in Atlanta was 69 degrees, the warmest low for any date in any February. That low temperature is about normal in Atlanta toward the end of June. 

According to @extremetemps on Twitter , also known by his real name Maximiliano Herrera, this was  "the harshest winter heat wave in history." He backs that up with a litany of all time new February record high temperatures:  

 During Thursday afternoon, most of North Carolina was in the low to mid 80s while one town in the state reached 87 degrees. Pensacola Florida reached 83 degrees for a new February high temperature. 

The heat extended down into Cuba, where Santa Lucia reached 95. That exceeded both the record for the months of February and January. Havana, Cuba, was close behind with an all-time February high this week of 94 degrees. 

The all-time heat records also expanded westward to Mississippi and Alabama.  All time February record highs were set in these Mississippi cities. Columbia (88); Tupelo (87) Laurel (86); and in Alabama, Muscle Shoals (86) and Haleyville (82)  

Nashville, Tennessee, also reached its all-time February high of 85 degrees. Previously, the earliest it had ever been 85 degrees in Nashville was on March 12, 1967.

Thursday, the temperature at Reagan National Airport in Washington DC zoomed up from 68 degrees to 81 degrees between 2 and 3 p.m Thursday. 

Magnolias are already blooming in front of the White House. Green leaves popped open as far north as Philadelphia. 

More ominously, peach and other crops are blooming in the Southeast, weeks prematurely. It will only take one powerful, but seasonable cold front in March to wipe out as much as  $1 billion in crops.  

This is a similar or even worse set up than 2017. That year, another warm February led to a winter storm in March  that killed 85 percent of South Carolina's peach crop and 80 percent of Georgia's blueberry harvest. Total frost damage in March, 2017 was around $1 billion. 

The region is set up for another agricultural disaster this year. Warm, pleasant weather is most definitely not a good thing. 

ELSEWHERE AND OUTLOOK

Ice storms in the Midwest and southern Ontario this week cut power to as many as a million people. 

The ice in Michigan caused the most widespread power outages in that state since a wild squall line of thunderstorms in August, 2021. At one point last night, more than a half million homes and businesses were without power due to the ice.

Parts of the upper Midwest are still digging out from 12 to 20 inches of windblown snow amid nasty wind chills. 

A shopping mall parking garage in Wisconsin partly collapsed under the weight of snow and ice, but thankfully nobody was hurt. 

Forecasters are now worried that the storm in California, as it moves east, could spawn a severe weather and tornado outbreak Sunday and Monday in the southern Plains and parts of the Southeast.

Although the nations' weather will become somewhat less extreme over the coming days, the same basic weather pattern should remain intact through at least the first week in March. That means more cold storminess in the West, and more summer like warmth in the Southeast.

For us here in Vermont, we're kind of in a sweet spot.  For the next week or two, expect active, but not extreme weather. That means temperatures more or less near normal, and frequent precipitation, but nothing super heavy. 

Back To Winter With A Little More Snow, And Colder Than It's Been In Weeks

A wintry Friday morning in St. Albans, Vermont.
We've had a total of 5 inches of snow, including a
little sleet and freezing drizzle since Wednesday night.

 A little snow is lingering in parts of Vermont this morning, but we're not done with winter redux just yet. 

We've got some cold weather to deal with, and at least some more snow.  It's still late February. You didn't think we could coast into spring without some winter weather hitting, did you?

That second wave of precipitation blew through last night with a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. My place in St. Albans got another 1.5 inches of snow overnight. Most of it was heavy, sleety stuff, so I'm glad it's not more. It was topped by some very fluffy snow that continued to fall as of 7:30 a.m.  So we'll get a bit more.

So will other areas. Mostly on the west slopes of the Green Mountains and eastern parts of Franklin, Chittenden and Addison counties. I don't imagine it will amount to much more than an additional inch or so this morning, maybe a bit more in the mountains. The lingering snow will dry  up this afternoon.

Burlington managed to accumulate 6.2 inches of snow Thursday.  That's actually a record amount for the date.  The old record was 5.6 inches in 1971.  The 1971 February 23 dump was part of the snowiest winter on record, with 145.7 inches for that season. 

We surely won't break seasonal snow records this winter. Burlington is only up to 45.2 inches of snow so far this winter. That's nearly a foot and a half behind where we should be at on this date. And we'd need another 100 inches of snow by May to break the 1971 record. 

Somehow, I don't think that will happen. 

UP NEXT, COLD

Yes, it's cold out there.

Most of us were in the teens this morning, and it won't get any warmer than that today. Brisk northwest winds will keep wind chills near zero.  And it still looks like it will be below zero for almost all of us by morning.

Saturday will barely make it into the teens, too.

THEN, A LITTLE SNOW

After some very light snow Saturday afternoon, more snow showers are due Sunday amid milder temperatures. Highs will be in the 20s to near 30, which is just a little cooler than normal for this time o year. 

The snow Sunday and Sunday night should only amount to a dusting to three inches, the most being in the mountains.

Forecasters are still talking about a storm Monday night and Tuesday, but I'm starting to get a little dubious about it. Most of my doubts so far are up toward the Northeast Kingdom.

A big chunk of the storm that will bring record snows to southern California in the next couple of days will turn into a strong system that will race toward the Great Lakes by Monday.  This will produce another round of severe weather in parts of the South, and renewed trouble with snow and ice in the Plains and western Great Lakes. 

Normally, this type of storm scenario brings us a mix to rain mess. But in this case, the storm will stall and weaken in favor of a new storm forming somewhere near New Jersey.

This would help lock in the cold air to keep Vermont in mostly snow. But the new storm looks like it might peel of to the east.  If that happens too far south, we might miss out on the heaviest precipitation. Especially in the Northeast Kingdom.

Of course, the storm is several days away and a lot could change. I know the current forecast on this storm will adjust one way or another. So stay tuned as always.  

Thursday Evening Update: Dreary Day, Icky Evening In Vermont

After this morning's snow, a combination of temperatures in
the teens, periodic snow showers, moments of freezing
drizzle and a low overcast made for a 
dreary February day in St. Albans, Vermont. 

After last night's and this morning's snow, and a dreary day of low overcast, fog, light, grainy snow showers and freezing drizzle - let's call today's weather snizzle - we're now gearing up for Round 2 of our latest Vermont winter storm.  

Round 2 won't be huge. And though this has definitely not been the biggest winter storm ever to hit Vermont, it still caused its share of problems.

The worst was a likely weather related car crash on Interstate 91 in Hartland this morning that killed one person. 

Slide offs and more minor crashes were reported statewide. 

The latest list of storm reports indicate areas kind of between Route 4 and Route 2 got five to eight inches of snow out of this. Amounts tapered off as you headed toward the Canadian border because dry air won out. Only 1.5 to 5 inches fell north of Route 2. My place received an additional 0.3 inches of snow during the day, bringing my total so far to 3.5 inches as of 5 p.m. I got off easy. 

Or not so easy, as you'll learn further down in this post. 

South of Route 4, mixed precipitation cut back on snow amounts. 

TONIGHT

A new winter weather advisory has been posted for along and south of a  line roughly from Vergennes to White River Junction as Round 2 moves in. 

Though temperatures are remaining quite cold near the surface, another strong push of warm air is coming in aloft. It will ride over the cold air. 

In the winter weather advisory zone, snowflakes from way high up will melt on the way down when they encounter that layer of warm air.  Some of those raindrops will re-freeze on the way down when they hit the cold air a little above the surface. That would be sleet.  Other raindrops won't freeze until they hit the surface. That's freezing rain. 

Luckily, this next push of moisture this evening isn't as vigorous as the one last night. So precipitation will be light. But it will be enough to make road conditions deteriorate again, and make things extra dicey underfoot. 

A sign of spring, believe it or not. The sun shone very 
weakly through the clouds around noon today in St. 
Albans, Vermont while temperatures were in the upper
teens. But with a higher sun angle, the sun's rays
were briefly able to melt a small amount of snow'
and ice on my driveway. 

A tiny amount of freezing rain or drizzle can cause real problems. I learned the hard way today. I shoveled the driveway at my house in St. Albans, Vermont today. Then we had a period of light freezing drizzle which froze onto the pavement. So, clumsy me slipped on that thin layer of ice and took a nasty fall. 

Luckily, the result is only a headache, a slightly scraped and bruised arm and an even more seriously bruised ego. So let this be a warning. Be careful out there! 

A sign of spring, though. Toward noon, the sun shown weakly through the clouds. It was only 18 degrees, but still, the sun was enough to briefly melt some of the ice on the driveway. The increased sun angle as we head toward spring is  making a difference. That brief melt would have never happened in December.

Back to the forecast: 

Near Route 2, any mix will probably be just sleet, but we can't rule out any freezing drizzle. Way up north, within, say 20 or 30 miles from the Canadian border, there should be little if any mixed precipitation. Just snow. That's why there's no winter weather advisory in the north. Because there's not much ice to talk about. 

These northern spots should  receive another one to three inches of snow. Some higher amounts will probably fall in the Green Mountains from near Bakersfield to the Canadian border.

FRIDAY

It'll be all over except for scattered snow showers on Friday. As advertised, it will be a frigid, blustery day. For the fourth Friday in a row, temperatures will hold near study or more likely fall slowly through the day. That's, of course, opposite of what you'd expect, with temperatures rising toward a peak in the afternoon. 

But we insist on being half-assed backwards again. 

Friday night and Saturday morning will be by far the coldest since February 4. Almost everybody will be below zero. The cold spots will make it into the teens below zero. This isn't record cold, but it is quite nippy for late February.  

WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK

Saturday will stay cold - not getting out of the teens. There's a risk of a few lame snow showers, too. Sunday brings us a better chance of snow showers, but it will warm up to the 20s to around 30. The snow showers Sunday will probably only give us two inches or less of snow.

I somewhat more substantial storm seems to be in the cards for Monday night and Tuesday. But we don't know how much or what kind of precipitation we'll get. Odds at the moment are leaning towards light to moderate snow, but that could easily change. 

New Jersey Tornado Witness Is Best Interview Ever

New Jersey tornado witness 
Marilyn Anderson tells a 
reporter what happened in 
best possible way. 

 On Tuesday, a rare February tornado struck Mercer County, New Jersey of all places. And a television reporter got the best interview of her career. 

The tornado damage several apartments, homes and other structures in the area. 

This was an unusual event, being the first February tornado in New Jersey since 1999. The tornado was strong for New Jersey in any season, let alone winter, when tornadoes almost never hit that far north, 

The tornado was rated an EF-2 On the tornado strength scale, with top winds of 115 mph. The scale goes from 0 to 5. It traveled for 5.8 miles, which is on the long side for a Northeastern tornado.

 The tornado hit a populated area and caused quite a bit of damage to apartment buildings, businesses and homes in its 200-yard wide path. 

Given how busy the area hit is, and how strong the tornado was, I'm pleasantly surprised there were no injuries. 

As you would expect, local media swarmed into the tornado zone after the storm passed and began interviewing witnesses. A WABC reporter encountered a woman named Marilyn Anderson who was home with her sister when the tornado struck. 

She gave probably the best and most entertaining weather interview I've seen in ages. It's in the video at the bottom of this post. 

Please note I'm not laughing at Anderson. Not at all. I just think she's absolutely terrific. Her animated personality makes me wish I could go out for drinks with her.  A tornado had just scared the bejeezus out of her and damaged her home, yet she remained so positive and animated as she recounted her story.

I wish everybody had as much joie de vivre as Anderson.   

Here's the video. Click on this link if you don't see the image below. Otherwise, click on the image to view.  

Before The Storm: Volatility Showed In Vermont Weather (Video)

A somewhat volatile looking sky over St. Albans, Vermont
Tuesday afternoon ahead of a gusty, squally cold front. 

 Ahead of the winter storm that rolled through Vermont on Thursday, a couple smaller disturbance sort of hinted at the building volatility in the weather.  

A weak cold front came through on Monday, but it had enough oomph to spread snow squalls up near the Canadian border. 

Here in St. Albans, we had no squalls on Monday, but some gusts of winds and some really fast moving clouds. Reminded me of a close miss summer thunderstorm.

A somewhat stronger front came through late in the day on Tuesday.  We got teased by variable winds gusts, fits and starts of snow that didn't amount to much, and finally a squall of sleety snow that deposited a quick inch of icy snow. 

Until that inch of snow, it was odd seeing no snow cover on the ground. The scenes in the video reminded me of late March, not late February. 

This Tuesday cold front helped in enough cold air to ensure that northern Vermont received mostly snow from the main event today. Southern Vermont picked up some snow, too, but it was mixed with sleet. 

Video below shows the mini-weather drama as the weather fronts foreshadowed today's storm. First 35 seconds or so is the quick hit on Monday, and the rest is Tuesday's gusty snow and sleet showers.

Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.

Initial Snow Thump Ending In Vermont, But Kinda Ugly Weather Through Tonight

Vermont Agency of Transportation web cams showed
a snowy commute this morning for much of Vermont.
This is Interstate 89 in Colchester at around 6:30 a.m. 

 The first, bigger wave of snow from this long-anticipated winter storm was beginning to wane shortly after dawn today. But don't worry!  There's more fun to be had as the day and night go on. 

Early reports are that central Vermont got a solid six inches or so of snow as of 6 or 7 this morning. Burlington's official total as of 7 a.m. was 5.9 inches so far. 

Up near the Canadian border, dry air hung tough, so less snow fell there than expected. At my place in St. Albans, Vermont, we only had 3.2 inches of new snow as of 6:30 this morning. 

Forecasts had sort of hinted at that, with snowfall prediction maps showing a little less in the far north of Vermont. The snowfall was even a little less than forecast.  Northern zones should make up for some of that "missing snow" tonight. More on that in a bit. 

In far southern Vermont, as expected, sleet and a little freezing rain held down snow amounts. 

This is a colder storm than any we've had this winter in Vermont. Most of them featured temperatures not far from 32 degrees, which, when it did snow, it was wet and heavy. This time, readings this morning are in the teens north, 20s south. That led to a more powdery snow.

It also meant it's a little harder to scrub the snow from Vermont's highways. Traffic cams, especially in central and northern Vermont, showed Interstates and main state highways still snow covered as of 7 a.m. today.

We do see quite a few school closings in Vermont this morning. 

The winter storm warning in effect in central and northern Vermont expires at 1 p.m. today, but that doesn't mean travel trouble on the roads will go away. 

During the day, we won't see much of anything.  But a few snowflakes will fall, and we will see  lovely patchy freezing drizzle. Or frizzle as I call it. That "frizzle", still mixed with a little snow, had already started in St. Albans as of 7 a.m., despite temperatures in the teens. 

Traffic cam also shows a snowy Route 7 in 
Brandon this morning. 

Another wave of precipitation is still expected to come in later this afternoon and tonight, sent here by another storm rippling along a stalled front to our south, and a push of warm air aloft.

It'll stay cold enough down near ground level today and tonight, with temperatures not getting out of the 20s north. This will be the first day Burlington stays below 32 degrees all day since February 4.

At least for awhile this evening, sleet and freezing rain will push further north than it did this morning.  

Sleet and a little freezing rain looks like it might venture as far north as Route 2 this evening. Maybe even a little further north than that. It'll eventually switch back to snow later on pretty much everywhere in Vermont. This new burst of snow and ice should come in after 6 p.m. and last until at least midnight. 

Areas up by the Canadian border have a good shot of staying all snow, which is why I said that area will partly make up for this morning's lackluster accumulations. Expect a good two or three inches of additional snow tonight north of Route 15. A few areas could get a little more than that.

 This evening's round of snow or ice won't be nearly as heavy as this mornings. Away from the Canadian border, expectations are people will see an inch or two of snow and only a thin layer of ice. 

Friday still looks blustery and cold. It's become a Friday tradition this month. This will be fourth Friday in a row in which temperatures fall all day, instead of rising toward a peak in the afternoon. 

We're also still expecting subzero cold Friday night and Saturday. Saturday will also be quite a chilly day, with highs just in the teens. Sunday will reach well into the 20s. Both days contain a risk of some pretty non-consequential snow showers.

Another, larger storm is still due Monday night and Tuesday.  So far, forecasts have been trending a little more toward a mostly snow scenario with that system, but there's still a lot of time for forecasts to change one way or another.