Quick Hitting, Fast Storms To Zip Through Vermont/New England, Windy, Maybe Snow, Too?

The last leaves of autumn clinging to the trees in St.
Albans on Monday under overcast, gusty skies. 
The leaves won't last much longer on those trees.

 The first in a series of fast moving storms zipped through yesterday and last night, spraying us with a little rain, and gusts of winds. 

The next week or so will feature more of the same: Lots of wind, quick hits of rain, which won't be particularly heavy, and, with each passing cold front, increasing chances of snow with temperatures stepping down with each front. 

Since temperatures will stay cool, especially in the mountains, this might portend an early ski and riding season. 

Each storm will deposit a little snow in the mountains. More importantly, for resorts that want to get an early start, like Killington the chilly air has the snow guns blasting. 

WPTZ reports Killington had 175 snow guns firing away on their slopes this past weekend. I'm sure they will have plenty of opportunities to make snow in the coming week to 10 days. It'll trend colder than normal, especially as we head into next weekend. 

There's no word yet on when Killington will open, the resort says they hope to open soon. 

The series of modest, but gusty storms could gradually increase snow depths on the northern Vermont summits over the next week. I wouldn't be surprised if the top of Mount Mansfield and Jay Peak have close to a foot of snow on the ground by this time next week. 

Unlike recent oddly mild Novembers, this one is shaping up to be more traditional in Vermont: Windy, overcast, unsettled, with occasional cold rain and wet snow. Lovely. 

THE DETAILS

The first gusty storm, as we know, went through with light showers yesterday and last night. 

This storm got weird in Massachusetts. A brief tornado might have touched down around Somerset, near Fall River late last night in southeast Massachusetts. Other nearby towns had strong, straight line winds.

It looks like the National Weather Service will investigate those reports. 

Nothing like that in Vermont, but you'll still feel those blustery winds today.

Places on and near the east slopes of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains could see gusts as high as 45 mph.  That would be enough for some isolated power outages. 

Most of us should stay dry, though the Northeast Kingdom should stay with the showers into the early afternoon. High spots like Jay Peak will probably see some snowflakes. 

The next storm comes at us fast, zipping in from the west, strengthening as it does so.  It won't have a huge amount of moisture to work with, so we'll just have periods of light rain and Wednesday afternoon and some gusty showers tomorrow night. There could even be a rumble of thunder. 

Rainfall with the Wednesday night storm will probably run from about a tenth of an inch south and maybe a third of an inch north.  Not enough to help with the lingering drought, but it won't hurt, either! 

The back side of the storm late Wednesday night and Thursday will feature winds even stronger than today.  We might see a wind advisory as gusts could reach 50 mph in a few favored spots and 40 mph in quite a few other locations. That could cause a few scattered power outages once again.

The gales of November indeed.

On Thursday morning, those of you living at or above 1,500 feet in elevation could wake up to a slushy coating of snow. Mountain summits could see a few inches of snow, we'll see!

Another quick system comes in Saturday, but shouldn't be a biggy.

Things could get interesting with the next zippy storm Sunday. A blast of really cold air should come behind that one, which could give valley floors, even in the warmer Champlain Valley, some snow. It's too soon to say how much, but we do know it won't exactly be a tremendous blizzard. 

It'll probably be closer to a dusting in the valleys, with several inches up in the mountains. 

You know how the first snow of the season is in Vermont.  A dusting of snow, and the fact that people have somehow forgotten how to drive in the winter can turn a simple drive to work into a real, frustrating and sometimes scary mess.

I'm already dreading next Monday. 

But, forecasts can change, so we'll keep an eye on it.  

Ice Storm Pretty Much Over In Vermont, Temperatures To Bounce All Over The Place. Still A Minor Flood Risk

Chair lift at Killington Resort coated in ice
today. The resort had to close due to
damage from this morning's ice storm,
but is expected to reopen Monday. 

 As of late Sunday afternoon we can say Hurray!

That's because all winter weather warnings and advisories in Vermont have been dropped. 

Except for maybe some small isolated areas in eastern parts of the state, the freezing rain is over. It hasn't been a nice Sunday afternoon - raw, sometimes rainy, overcast and in the Champlain Valley getting a little windy. But the ice problem is over.

Except the cleanup of course.

It seems like Rutland and Windsor counties, and areas immediately to the north and south of those counties suffered the bulk of the ice issues.

The number of homes and businesses without power in Vermont held roughly steady in the 11,000 range from around 8:30 this morning to mid-afternoon, but were starting to decline late this afternoon, vtoutages.org indicated.

If I had to pick a town that suffered the worst, I'd say Killington. They still had the most outages of any community in Vermont

The gigantic Killington Resort was forced to shut down Sunday. Power was out at much of the resort. Trees along the roads leading to the resort  were collapsing, and blocking traffic. "Trees are continuing to fall around the mountain and trails are beginning to refreeze, creating unsafe conditions for guests and staff," the resort said in a statement. 

Killington expects to reopen for business tomorrow.  At least it will be warm for skiers.

TONIGHT/MONDAY

For most places, the temperature will actually slowly continue to warm overnight. We'll occasionally be harassed by showers, but they won't amount to much, really.

Monday continues to look quite mild, and windy in the Champlain Valley. Most of us valley dwellers should see temperatures reach the low to mid 60s, a huge change from this weekend. Most of the day will feature just scattered showers. 

During the mid to late afternoon a line or broken line of briefly heavy showers and even some thunderstorms will come through Vermont. (This will be the relatively harmless northern extension of a severe weather outbreak expected up and down the East Coast tomorrow).

Any heavy rainfall will be brief. We've already seen the heaviest precipitation with this storm, so we won't have much addition. However, between the melting snow and ice, plus whatever rain we get, I still expect minor flooding Monday and into Tuesday on some Vermont rivers, or at least something close to it. 

Don't worry about major flooding, though.

BEYOND MONDAY, NEW STORM?

We're still looking at a BIG temperature crash Monday night behind the cold front as lows get into the 20s and highs just make it into the 30s Tuesday. 

That sets the stage for the next storm, which frankly still looks similar to the one we had this weekend. 

Lingering cold air will mean the next storm Wednesday night. It's looking like we will once again start off with snow and freezing rain. Before you get too scared, it won't be as bad as this weekend. Probably enough to mess up the roads, but that's it. 

And it will quickly go over to rain by Thursday. 

There's still not a lot of details on the next storm to share. We'll get updates as we get closer.

But I will depress you with one other bit of news. Long range forecasts call for a series of sharp, wintry cold snaps here in Vermont during the first half of April. I hope that's wrong, but I'm throwing that out there! 

Recent Killington Backcountry Rescues Highlight Stupidity In Potentially Dangerous Weather

Several rescues of skiers and riders that have gone 
rogue at Killington Resort and got lost are 
lucky they weren't severely injured or killed
It's easy for an unprepared person to get in 
serious trouble fast in the back country. 

 During January, two large groups of skiers on different weekends had to be rescued when they ventured into backcountry territory outside the bounds of the Killington Resort.  

In both cases, the weather was thankfully not all that extreme. But it's winter. It was cold, with temperatures only in the single digits above zero. Dangerous if your'e stuck out there unprepared.   

The people who went backcountry were, in fact, completely unprepared. They disregarded how how even moderately cold weather can quickly affect people and potentially kill them.

 They didn't have the equipment to pull themselves out of danger. And they put their rescuers in danger, too.

Winter weather is not to be messed with, but I guess these losers didn't get the memo. 

  As WPTZ reports:

"Killington officers spoke with Vermont State Police's Search and Rescue team, and through further investigation, discovered there were actually 23 lost individuals six of them juveniles. 

Twelve members from Killington's Search and Rescue team went into the woods, where they spent the next several hours hiking, snowshoeing and skiing over five miles in frigid temperatures."

The initial call was for nine lost skiers. That number kept swelling to 23.  Killington resort duly noted that 

The rescue of so many people at once who ignored signs and barricades at Killington and went into the backcountry  captured the attention of Outside magazine writer Frederick Dreier:

"Perhaps you wondered, like I did, how nearly two dozen skiers and snowboarders somehow got trapped and needed to be extracted amid bone-chilling conditions. Was this a birthday party gone wrong? Did the local ski club throw its annual kegger a little too deep in the woods? What the hell happened?"

Dreirer phoned up Drew Clymer who helped organize the rescue as part of his job at the Vermont State Police to get an answer.  

"Apparently, four different groups of skiers and boarders who were enjoying a day of skiing and riding at Killington Resort made the unfortunate decision to duck the ropes atop the Snowden Six Express life and head into the backcountry. 

'These were all front-side resort skiers,' Clymer said. 'We were rescuing skiers in the backcountry, but that doesn't mean they were backcountry skiers.'"

THE LANDSCAPE/DANGER

My sister Laurie lives in a beautiful, high elevation spot in Shrewsbury, Vermont. She has a commanding view of the back side of the Killington and Pico ski resorts - the backcountry. 

People who go into the backcountry think they're close to the hustle and bustle of central Vermont's big ski hub. So it would be no trouble finding your way back, right?   

A view from Shrewsbury, Vermont of the back sides of 
the mountains that hold the Killington and Pico ski resorts.
On this side of those mountains, there's nothing
there but wilderness that's easy to get lost within. 

Wrong.

The view from Laurie's house is impressive, to say the least. Her view is squarely on the back  country. It's totally undeveloped. All you see from Laurie's vantage point is trees.  

 It's a vast, vast area of unbroken forest, ridges, and slopes. There's absolutely no houses, roads, or any major human in an immense span of acreage that would get you back to civilization. At night, from Laurie's house, the only light you see up there is the moon. If it's out. 

Also, try climbing back up the mountain in the cold and deep snow to get to the other side that has all the ski runs and lodges and condominiums.    

It looks so easy to get lost there, disoriented. Especially when it's cold, snowy, foggy and/or dark. You're tired, hungry and shivering. And you don't have the right equipment. And you expect to get out of that situation without any help?  

Meanwhile, as  Killington Police Chief Whit Montgomery described to the Rutland Herald: "'One of the ways it becomes so dangerous is you get in there on fresh snow, it can be deep. It can be yup to your waist or higher, with ski boots on or snow boots on....you start to sweat, you get wet, the temperatures drop more, hypothermia can set in; it gets pretty dangerous pretty quickly."

Especially when you're stuck in a bad location. 

 From the Outside article about the rescue: 

"They descended into a steep gully called Brewers Brook that is known to accumulate powder. But when the skiers and boarders reached the bottom, they realized what lay ahead: A 2.5 mile boot-pack out over steep and icy terrain. They were cold and tired and lost.

According to Clymer, nobody had touring equipment like climbing skins or split boards, In total, 21 skiers and snowboarders were down there together - six were children. Multiple people in the party eventually called 911."

So now, this group was in danger. So to - at least to some extent - the rescuers dispatched to find the bozos. Sure, the rescuers had the right equipment, the right experience, the right level of fitness. But things could still go wrong. 

In this case, they didn't. But it's amazing how some vacationers and such have no regard to what winter and terrain and nature can do in the backcountry. 

I don't know how we will ever teach people to learn this, other than hit them up financially for the rescues.  Emergency workers are reluctant to charge people for the cost of rescues. The fear of financial impact might make people needing rescue to postpone calling for help until it's too late. 

So far, pretty much all the stories I can remember about these ignorant backcountry explorers had a happy ending. They tend to be found alive, with no serious injuries. That's not the case everywhere. There have been several fatalities at western U.S. ski areas among people who have skied out of bounds at resorts. 

Perhaps not so happy for some of the people who were rescued. Killington at last report was considering pulling the passes of at least some of this group.

Among the 23 people rescued, one was a Killington employee, the Rutland Herald said. Killington fired that employee. 

 

It's June, So Let's Talk About Snow!

They were skiing at Killington, Vermont right up
through yesterday, when the resort finally 
closed for the season.

 We have a couple little tidbits involving snow, or things that remind us of snow in the news today. It's June, the perfect month to discuss snow, right?  

We'll go distant first, then zoom in on the local

MONTANA SNOW

Way up at 10,000 feet in elevation, near the Montana/Wyoming border, there's a ski area called Beartooth Basin, which often offers summer skiing.  It's rough hewn, basically back country skiing with a lift, but it's a unique situation.

Beartooth Basin decided not to open this summer. There wasn't enough snow to sustain the operation. Then, of course, a massive snowstorm hit on Memorial Day weekend. 

The high elevation Beartooth Highway on the Montana/Wyoming border was closed for days afterward because of six-foot drifts. Crews couldn't really get into clear the snow due to a high avalanche risk, reports Cowboy State Daily.

Beartooth Highway is sort of a mega version of Route 108 through Smugglers Notch. The highway reaches an elevation as high as 10,900 feet. It closes in the fall and usually reopens in late spring, much like Smugglers Notch.

Crews trying to clear high elevation Beartooth Highway
of snow in Montana and Wyoming June 3.

The Montana high elevation road is normally open by Memorial Day, but not this year.  At last report, it still hadn't opened.

Beartooth Basin still doesn't look like it will open this summer, either. Despite all the new snow, it's too late to shift gears and open up.  

KILLINGTON SNOW

 No, I assure you that it didn't not snow in Vermont this weekend. The only powder we had was the huge amounts of pollen in the air that has created a yellow haze and left all of our cars yellow as well.

But, Killington was open and skiing until yesterday. It was the latest in the spring the resort closed since 1997, when it closed on June 22.

The spectacle was a little strange, as skiers zigzagged down a slope with still deep snow against a gorgeous backdrop of a summertime Vermont green landscape. 

The late closing this year had everything to do with Killington's snowmaking prowess and not weather conditions. After all, the winter was not especially cold, despite subzero weather in January. Spring was among the warmest on record. 

The resort managed to pile  up the snow on the trail to a depth of 30 feet before the spring that got underway. 

When Killington stayed open late in 1997, it had been a remarkably cool spring, which helped maintain the snow the resort had made through the winter. 

NOR'EASTERS OF SORTS 

When we think about nor'easters in New England, we think big snowstorm.  And now we have the potential for two storms that will be very much like weak nor'easters.

Don't worry, it isn't going to snow.  And temperatures as these things pass by will only be a little cooler than normal. And it might rain. 

In the summer, we don't see huge temperature contrasts like we do in the winter. Without these huge contrasts, storm systems can't get really strong (unless they're tropical storms, which is a whole other issue)

Without the ability to get strong, two relatively weak low pressure systems will end up running up the New England coast. One on Thursday, one on Sunday. 

Both storms will dump rain somewhere in New England. 

Like wintertime nor'easters, it's still hard to predict how much moisture will work into Vermont, so there's still some questions about how much rain will fall. Right now, it looks like the Green Mountain State will be under the threat of showers both Thursday and Sunday.  But it doesn't look like we'll have any blockbuster rains. 

By the way, technically there might be snow. Way, way, overhead. Often, precipitation starts out as snow many, many thousands of feet overhead even in the summer. That will probably happen with these little storms. But that snow will change to rain on the way down well before it hits even summit levels of the Vermont mountains. 

 

Vermont Forest Fires Burn As Dry, Warm Spring Rolls On

Forest fire in Killington, as seen from Route 4. Photo by
Paul Holmes, via The Mountain Times

A stubborn forest fire in Killington that has been burning since Saturday re-intensified Wednesday as dry conditions in and around Vermont have officials pleading with people to be careful with outdoor flames. 

The Killington fire started Saturday when a new land owner decided to burn brush and slash from previous logging operations on their rugged property in the Green Mountains near Route 4. 

According to The Mountain Times, the landowner did not have a burn permit, which is required in Killington and most Vermont towns before you can set your brush pile alight. 

The land owner has so far not been publicly identified. 

The Killington fire warden said the new landowner might not have known they needed a burn permit, but that's no excuse.  

Also, duh!! Just walking into the woods and fields on Saturday, or yesterday for that matter, would have immediately told you conditions are dry and you might want to wait for wetter conditions before you burn brush. Fire wardens across the state are disinclined to issue burn permits until things get wetter out there.

For the record, the Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation lists today's fire danger in the entire state as high. 

So far, the Killington fire is burning pretty far away from any homes and businesses and no structures are threatened. But it is on steep, very difficult to access terrain, making it hard to fight. 

Since Saturday, personnel from at least 10 fire departments from in and near Rutland County have been battling the fire, reports The Mountain Times. The fire appeared to be largely under control by later Sunday as crews raked fire lines to contain the flames. 

However, it was obvious the fire had re-flared Wednesday, as smoke rose from a hillside north of Route 4. Before Wednesday, the fire had burned around 25 acres, which is much bigger than average for a Vermont forest fire.  

The forest fire danger across Vermont is 
high today. No outdoor burning, please!

According to northeastwildfire.org, the average size of a Vermont forest fire is only about two acres or less. The Green Mountain State usually sees between 200 and 400 of these mostly small fires annually, mostly in the spring.

In the distant past, Vermont had much worse forest fires. In 1908, a total of 106 wildfires burned16,000 acres.  Fires in 1903 burned 5,000 acres. 

Back in Killington, the weather is not cooperating with firefighters.  

Warm temperatures and low humidity are allowing the woods to dry out further, and encouraging the fire. Forecasts call for temperatures in the 80s this afternoon with relative humidity quite low - in the 20 to 30 percent range.  

Some showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday and likely on Sunday, but it's unclear whether those showers will amount to all that much. 

The Mountain Times said two smaller forest fires broke out in central Vermont in recent days.  One fire in Pittsfield was also started by an out of state landowner who set a brush pile alight without a permit. Another fire near Chittenden Reservoir was quickly contained.

Much more distant wildfires are affecting Vermont, too. The sky was hazy yesterday, and you'll notice the same today.  That's because winds are carrying smoke aloft from fires in southern and central Canada into New England.

Western New York is under an air quality alert today, in part due to particulates from fires embedded in this haze.